Monday, November 2, 2009
Before I get to the forecast discussion, I want to take a look back on the extremely wet October we had across SW Louisiana and also rehash the tornado outbreak across North Louisiana last Thursday.
October is generally one of the driest months of the year for SW Louisiana and SE Texas. It is a month that often is very exemplary of true fall weather across the region. However, October 2009 was an exception to the rule as a strengthening El Nino established a very active pattern, and the end result was one of the all-time wettest Octobers ever across the forecast area. This has led to some flooding problems on area rivers, and I will also incorporate this information into this report. The worst of the flooding issues will be along the Sabine River as the flooding will be aided by the opening of the flood gates at Toledo Bend. Following is a list of selected sites across the forecast area. It includes the total rainfall for October 2009, the normal total for October, the surplus amount for each location, and where it ranks as far as all-time wettest October. Data compiled is this report comes from the NWS Lake Charles as well as the National Climatic Data Center. Monthly totals across the area ranged around 10" to almost 20" in some locations. Normal amounts for October generally range from 3.75" to near 5".
Lake Charles 14.96" 3.94" +11.02" 3rd
Lafayette 12.52" 4.02" +8.50" 5th
Beaumont 14.90" 4.67" +10.23" 3rd
Alexandria 12.66" 4.82" +7.84" 3rd
New Iberia 11.65" 4.06" +7.59" 2nd
Other locations (Monthly totals only)
My House in South Lake Charles 15.37"
Old Town Bay 16.63"
Port of Lake Charles 14.50"
Lake Charles- Salt Water Barrier 14.86"
Sam Houston Jones State Park 14.09"
Moss Bluff 15.49"
Vinton 13.40"
Jennings 10.47"
Leesville 17.64"
Oakdale 14.10"
Kaplan 15.43"
Eunice 13.44"
DeRidder 13.50"
Bunkie 13.89"
Carenco 1679"
Abbeville 13.75"
Butte LaRose 16.97"
Grand Coteau 17.97"
Opelousas 19.38"*** ***-Highest total that I could find in the forecast area.
For October rainfall for other locations click here:
Now to the flooding situation across the forecast area...The Sabine River basin will experience moderate to major flooding from Toledo Bend downstream to Western Calcasieu Parish in SW Louisiana and Eastern Orange County in SE Texas. Minor to Moderate flooding is expected along the Calcasieu, Mermentau, Red, and Vermilion Rivers. Following are river stages at selected locations. I will keep these updated each day until the flood threat is over.
Sabine River
Location Current Stage Flood Stage Forecasted Crest
Burkevillle 43.2' 43.0' 43.9' Tuesday 11/3
Bon Wier 34.7' 30.0' ~35.5-36.5' Wednesday 11/4
Deweyville 24.4' 24.0' 28.0' Saturday 11/7
The flooding at Burkeville will be minor, and is forecast to fall below flood stage Wednesday afternoon. Flooding of several roads near the river will flood along with the River Bend Subdivision
Bon Wier...the crest will occur Wednesday between 35.5 and 36.5', and slowly fall for the rest of the week. At this level, major lowland flooding is expected. Several roads near the river, and a few homes between Bon Wier, TX and Merryville, LA will be flooded. Several camp homes along the river in SW Vernon Parish will flood. Preparations for major flooding in these locations should be rushed to completion. The flood will compare to the flood of March 2001.
Deweyville...the river will continue to rise through the week with a long, flat crest expected around 28' over the weekend. Flooding at this location will also be comparable to the flood of March 2001. Homes in Deweyville will have water in them, and flooding of homes in the River Oaks and Indian Lakes section occurs. Low-lying sections of Calcasieu Parish, Beauregard Parish, and Orange County will flood. This includes the area from Alligator Park to near I-10 to Niblett's Bluff in Calcasieu Parish. Low-lying roads and low structures in SW Beauregard Parish near the river will be flooded, and the same holds true for Eastern Orange County. Preparations for a major flood should be completed.
Calcasieu River
Location Current Stage Flood Stage Forecasted Crest
Glenmora 16.4' 12.0' ~16.5-17.0' Tuesday 11/3
Oakdale 8.9' 12.0' 14.0' Wednesday 11/4
Oberlin 12.3' 13.0' 17.0' Friday 11/6
Old Town Bay 4.1' 4.0' Crested
On the Calcasieu River at Glenmora..Flooding of secondary roads near the river and its tributaries will occur. Flooding of roads near the river at Glenmora, Calcasieu, and Hineston will occur.
Oakdale...Low secondary roads near the river will be flooded. Several homes in close proximity to the river are subject to flooding.
Oberlin...When the river reaches 15.0' moderate lowland flooding will occur.
Old Town Bay near Lake Charles...Only minor flooding of marshland near the river is expected. Goos Ferry Road experiences minor flooding. The river will fall below flood stage by Wednesday.
Mermentau River
Location Current Stage Flood Stage Forecasted Crest
Mermentau 4.1' 4.0' 4.2' Wednesday 11/4
Minor flooding is forecasted near the river at Mermentau.
Bayou Anacoco
Location Current Stage Flood Stage Forecasted Crest
Rosepine 19.6' 17.0' Cresting Now
Minor flooding of agricultural and forested ares near the bayou will occur.
Red River
Location Current Stage Flood Stage Forecasted Crest
Alexandria 31.3' 32.0' 33.0' Wednesday 11/4
Flooding of lowland areas all the way down to Acme will occur. Recreational boating should be avoided due to high river flows.
For more information on area rivers click here:
The river stages will be incorporated into the forecast period for the rest of the week as necessary.
On Thursday, October 29, 2009 a very intense Autumn El Nino storm system moved out of the Great Plains, and into the forecast area. While our area just received the heavy rainfall aspect of this system, areas to our North dealt with a 1-2 punch from the system as severe weather impacted the ARKLATEX region from late morning through the evening on the 29th. Strong tornadoes touched down near Shreveport, and caused damage in many parts of the Shreveport-Bossier City area. This is a look back at these tornadoes. Data compiled in this report comes from NWS Shreveport.
There are many misconceptions with tornadoes. One such misnomer is that tornadoes don't go through metropolitan areas; they just remain in the rural countryside or move through a trailer park. This is simply not true. A tornado can go wherever it wants to, however, more often than not tornadoes form in open areas away from any interference from buildings and other structures. A tornado moving through Downtown Shreveport is just the latest instance of a tornado moving right through the middle of a highly populated area. Other such occurrences are the Downtown Atlanta, GA tornado in March of 2008. A strong tornado also hit Downtown Salt Lake City, UT in August of 1999, and just this year a tornado moved through a very busy part of Beaumont, TX near the Parkdale Mall. These are clear examples that cite that a tornado can go anywhere it wants too. The ARKLAMISS tornado outbreak was one of the largest October tornado outbreaks of record in the region. Data is still being compiled, and may take a few more days to complete. So far, 16 tornadoes have been confirmed in the region from Northeast Texas, North Louisiana, and Southwest Arkansas. I will incorporate a link for all the storm data from Thursday's storms at the conclusion of this report, but I will discuss the Shreveport-Bossier City tornado in depth here. It was the strongest tornado of this outbreak. It was certainly not the only one, and other tornadoes of note occurred at Haughton, LA and Magnolia, AR.
The tornado that moved through Shreveport formed and touched down just to the SW of town. It continued to strengthen as it moved towards Downtown. The tornado snapped several trees, and took the steeple off a Shreveport landmark, The First United Methodist Church in Downtown. The steeple fell onto a car below, which was stopped at a red light. The man inside the car received severe injuries, but will survive. He continues to recover in a Shreveport area hospital. The tornado continued NE through Downtown, causing significant damage to the Convention Center and other area businesses. The tornado crossed the Red River into Bossier City near the Sam's Town Casino, knocking down several trees along the river. The tornado tracked near the I-220 loop in Bossier City damaging several car dealerships in the area. From there, it entered the Green Acres Subdivision of Bossier City where moderate to major damage to several homes in the area. Next, the tornado moved into the Brownlee and Subdivision damaging more homes before affecting the Reserve Apartment Complex as well as the Cypress Pointe Complex in the vicinity of Airline Drive. More damage was inflicted as the tornado continued to the NE through Bossier City, and major damaged occurred at the newly constructed Bossier Emergency Service Center. The tornado continued NE from there crossing Cypress Lake before dissipating in Northern Bossier Parish near Merritt Road. The tornado damaged over 1,000 homes in Bossier Parish. The tornado had a path of about 13 miles, and was 600 yards wide. It was estimated to be on the ground for 17 minutes, and was rated an EF2 with winds of 110-115 mph.
Information on all the tornadoes and flooding across the ARKLATEX region can be found here.
Our thoughts and prayers are extended to all of those who are recovering from all of the rough weather last week, and the resultant flooding that will occur this week as well.
-DM-
Monday, November 2, 2009
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