Pattern of Perfection Continues...

Thursday, September 30, 2010

Click below for the latest edition of the video blog. Be sure to scroll down for the complete text block.








SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Wednesday marked the 3rd straight day of shear spectacular September weather. It was another refreshing morning with lows in the mid 50s (56 at LCH....right on track!) An offshore flow continued with high pressure locked in place across the Western Gulf coast, and due to the position of Tropical Storm Nicole. The dry air and low humidity allowed for another day of a large diurnal range with high temperatures exceeding the forecast values of the mid 80s. The official high at LCH was 90, several degrees above normal for the end of September, however, with the extremely low humidity it still felt pleasant. Of course with high pressure in control, no sensible weather was observed. Another cool refreshing night and early morning is in the offing as temperatures bottom out in the mid 50s to lower 60s across the forecast area. Clear skies and nearly calm winds will greet you as you start your Thursday. Today's weather will be a continuance of the preceding days with plenty of sunshine in place, and low humidity holding firm once again. After the cool, refreshing start on this last day of September, high temperatures will be into the warm category once again with readings near the seasonal norm or just above. Mid 80s seem like a good fit on average, but certainly given the same atmospheric conditions as Wednesday some upper 80s will be possible.

A synoptic feature will come into play as we head into tonight, and it's in the form of another cold front. This cold front will move into the state this evening, and into our forecast area late tonight into Friday. It will do so with little fanfare. The Gulf of Mexico will remain totally closed for business with a continued offshore flow given the orientation of the current controlling high and the leftovers of Nicole. Overnight minimums will be a bit warmer as the current air mass continues to modify, and as we await a renewed fresh, cooler air mass heading into Friday. Expect lower 60s on average for your Friday morning minimum. The fropa will be dry and there likely won't even be any clouds during the period from tonight into Friday morning. We will continue to go deeper into drought conditions across the entire area, and as of Wednesday a barn ban has been issued for all of Calcasieu Parish. This extremely dry pattern will continue through this forecast period. That's the only gripe about this weather. Friday will begin a beautiful start to the month of October. A fresh round of CAA will take over on Friday in the wake of the cold front. NNW winds will increase a bit as the pressure gradient tightens over the area. Sunny, beautiful October skies are expected with highs in the lower to middle 80s, very close to the early October norm. No weather worries for the 5th week of Friday Night Football. In fact, it will be great weather this time around with comfortable temperatures and low humidity. Expect clear skies for all games around the state, and temperatures generally in the mid 70s at kickoff to the mid to upper 60s by the final whistle. CAA will continue for Friday night, and it will be a very nice and cool start to the first full weekend in October. Overnight lows heading into Saturday should be in the middle 50s for most.

There is no change in the forecast philosophy with this forecast package. The stage is set for great weather throughout the weekend. Sunny skies will be present both Saturday and Sunday with the string of pleasant temperatures continuing. High pressure will be the driving force behind the great weather, and pretty much the only synoptic feature on the weather map locally. Expect highs on Saturday to reach the lower 80s. Football weather will be just about perfect. LSU hosts Tennessee at 2:30p.m. in Tiger Stadium. Sunny skies with low humidity will continue with a kickoff temperature around 82, 81 or so at halftime, and 78 by game's end. A similar set up is expected for the McNeese game in Natchitoches as the Cowboys take on the Demons of Northwestern in their first Southland Conference tilt of the season. If you heading that way for the game, bring your sunglasses, and your blue and gold. Temperatures will be very similar with a kickoff temperature of 81...80 at halftime...77 at game's end. One of the coolest nights so far this season is slated for Saturday night into Sunday morning with readings in the lower to middle 50s along and North of I-10, and upper 50s at the coast. Sunday could potentially be even better than Saturday as temperatures cool a few more notches thanks to continued CAA and re-enforcing highs with origins from Canada. It will be great weather for any outdoor activities you may have planned or want to plan after church. Great weather is to be expected for the Saints game as well. Of course, the game itself is indoors as the Saints battle the Carolina Panthers at noon. The weather outside will be perfect for tailgating and for the drive over, and the drive home. High temperatures on Sunday will reach the upper 70s to around 80 on average across the forecast area.

The rest of the forecast next week Monday-Wednesday will feature more of the same with controlling high pressure and a continued offshore flow. A strong early October trough will continue with additional surges of cooler air filtering into the region. The end result will mean a continued reduction of temperatures, particularly for morning lows, through Tuesday. For the first time, since April, some 40s will be showing up in the forecast....gumbo, anyone? Afternoon highs could remain just shy of 80 degrees for a couple of days as well. Monday morning lows will average around 50, but there will be a chance for upper 40s even in Lake Charles then. It seems likely for Alexandria over to Fort Polk and down towards Oakdale and DeRidder. The best opportunity to see some 40s even in Lake Charles should come on Tuesday morning as high pressure will be situated very near the forecast area allowing for ideal radiational cooling conditions Monday night. A slow modification of this Canadian air mass will begin at the end of the forecast period on Wednesday, but it will still be nice and cool with lows back into the lower 50s, while highs rebound to the lower 80s. Humidity values will remain low as any influence from the Gulf of Mexico will be out of the question. Wall to wall sunshine is expected through Wednesday. This will be an unbelievably nice stretch of weather for this forecast area. The drought continues, and there is no sign of any needed rainfall for the next 7-10 days. There are some signs of a pattern shift around mid October which may produce some rain, but this is still way too far out to be specific. The same long range models also indicate the possibility of temperatures getting into the chilly category with some models advertising readings as cool as the lower 40s...that's jacket weather! Again, that's a bit far off to speculate too much at this point, but I watch for trends. One thing is for sure, any tropical system's will be deflected safely away from SW Louisiana for the foreseeable future, and likely for the remainder of the season.


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH  59/87  61/85  55/82  0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT   60/88  62/85  56/83  0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT   61/88  63/85  57/83  0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX  55/85  57/83  52/80  0 0 0 0 0 0
POE  55/85  57/83  52/80  0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA  62/87  64/86  57/84  0 0 0 0 0 0


Today...Sunny. High 87. North wind 5-10 mph.

Tonight...Clear. Low 61. Light North wind.

Friday...Continued Sunny. High 85. North wind 10-15 mph.

Friday Night...Clear and Cool. Low 55. North wind 10 mph.

Saturday...Sunny. High 82. North wind 10 mph.


Thursday 9/30/10 Daily Planner

6a.m.

Weather: Clear

Temp: 59
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 3

9a.m.

Weather: Sunny

Temp: 70
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5

Noon

Weather: Sunny

Temp: 81
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 8

3p.m.

Weather: Sunny

Temp: 87
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10

6p.m.

Weather: Sunny

Temp: 82
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 6

9p.m.

Weather: Clear

Temp: 75
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5


Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Thursday
9-30-10

Low: 59
High: 87
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10


Friday
10-1-10

Low: 61
High: 85
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10-15


Saturday
10-2-10

Low: 55
High: 82
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10


Sunday
10-3-10

Low: 53
High: 80
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5


Monday
10-4-10

Low: 50
High: 77
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10


Tuesday
10-5-10

Low: 48
High: 78
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10


Wednesday
10-6-10

Low: 51
High: 81
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10


...Tropical Update...

As quick as T.D. 16 formed on Tuesday afternoon, it became Tropical Storm Nicole Wednesday morning. Nicole was never a classic looking tropical system. It was a very broad and elongated tropical entity, and was likely more subtropical in nature really. It has since merged with a frontal zone off the East coast of Florida, and become a large extratropical storm. Heavy rains will spread up the East coast over the next couple of days. The heaviest rains and strongest winds are far removed from the actual center of circulation. Nicole began the transition to extratropical almost as quickly as it was upgraded to a Tropical Storm Wednesday morning. The moisture plume from the former Nicole is so large that heavy rains are still occurring across portions of the Caribbean. The now undiscernable center of the former Nicole will accelerate to the NE and parallel the Eastern Seaboard through Friday. Gusty winds and heavy rain will occur into New England, and there is a plethora of flash flood watches from North Carolina into Upper New England. In short, we can close the book on the very short-lived Nicole.

Elsewhere, there are 2 tropical waves in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean this morning. Neither one is imminently close to developing, but given the favorable environmental conditions that are still present over the Atlantic, some slow development is possible into the weekend. Both of these systems are still East of the Lesser Antilles, and will continue moving to the WNW into the weekend. I would say that the trailing wave, will have the better opportunity for development, but the first wave will also have a chance, albeit briefly. The first wave may come up against some rather adverse environmental conditions over the weekend. No matter what transpires with either one of these tropical waves as we head into October, neither one will pose a threat to Louisiana, and most likely avoid the Gulf of Mexico altogether given the environmental set up around our part of the world. The chances for development of the aforementioned tropical waves over the next 24 hours is only in the 10-20% range. Just in case, you're interested, the next two names on the list are Otto and Paula.

No other areas of tropical cyclone formation are anticipated through Friday.


...Marine Forecast...


Today...North winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet.

Tonight...North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

Friday...North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

Friday Night...North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.

Saturday...North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.


...Tide Data...

Thursday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass

Low:             2:28p.m.
High:             3:40a.m.


...Toledo Bend Pool Level...

    164.82'


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...


Wednesday, September 29, 2010


Low:              55
Normal Low:  65
Record Low:  45-1909
High:              90
Normal High:  85
Record High:  97-1953

Rainfall

Today:                             0.00"
Month to Date:                0.92"
Normal Month to Date:    5.78"
Year to Date:                 26.01"
Normal Year to Date:    43.87"
Record:                           2.69"- 1943


Sensible Weather Observed Today:

None


One Year Ago (2009)

Low:     62
High:     79
Rain:     0.29"


5 Years Ago (2005)

Low:      70
High:      91
Rain:     0.00"


10 Years Ago (2000)

Low:     57
High:     85
Rain:    0.00"


Sunrise Thursday:   7:06a.m.
Sunset  Thursday:   6:59p.m.


Hunting Times:

6:36a.m.-7:29p.m.


...Lunar Table...

 
Last Quarter- Friday October 1

New Moon- Thursday October 7

Last Quarter- Thursday October 14

Full Moon- Saturday October 23



Have a great Thursday & God Bless!
-DM-

Fantastic Fall Weather For the Foreseeable Future...

Wednesday, September 29, 2010


Click below for today's edition of the video blog. Be sure to scroll down for the full-length discussion and forecast et. al.

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Perfect weather! That about sums it up. Tuesday continued what  promises to be a prolonged stretch of beautiful weather. High pressure continued to be the dominant synoptic feature. This has provided for a nice switch from the horrific heat we experienced from May-until last week. It was a beautiful day with highs cracking the 80 degree mark, and extremely low humidity values in the 30-40% range. There was not a cloud to be found as the large area of high pressure began to clamp down on the area. The afternoon highs in the lower 80s from Tuesday afternoon will give way to the mid 50s once again first thing this morning. It will quite comfortable indeed, and you should be more than able to give the A/C a rest.  A light offshore flow mainly from the N will keep the dry, cool, refreshing air mass in place into Wednesday morning as the high pressure continues to dominate. The readings in the mid 50s on average will be very similar to those of Tuesday morning (it was 54 at LCH Tuesday morning). The coolest locales could be as cool as 50 right at sunrise once again this morning. Today will be another absolutely beautiful day with sunny skies in full effect. A light offshore flow will be maintained with high pressure remains entrenched along the NW Gulf.  Afternoon highs will be a bit warmer with mid 80s on average, but it will still be very pleasant with the low humidity and dry air in place across the region. More cool weather is on tap tonight.. However, it will be a bit warmer as air mass modification continues. Upper 50s should suffice for most, but a few lower 60s will be present south of I-10. We'll keep the clear skies in place and winds will virtually be calm. Again, open the windows!

The greatness remains as we head into the latter half of the work week. Thursday will be mark a spectacular end to the month of September. Can you believe we'll be ending the ninth month of the year already? Air mass modification will continue, but that being said it will remain pleasant. High temperatures will creep back into the mid to upper 80s, but it is at this point when we should be about the warmest we will be during this forecast period. High pressure will budge a bit further Eastward, allowing for a brief period of onshore flow by Thursday afternoon. This high pressure will slide Eastward as newly formed Tropical Depression 16, which is currently near Southern Cuba, slides NE across Florida. T.D. 16 should be Tropical Storm Nicole by that time, and the exiting high should build in behind the departing tropical cyclone. However, at the same time, another cold front will be hanging in the balance. This front will be sliding through the Ozarks Thursday during the day, and into our part of the world Thursday night into Friday. Moisture will be very limited as the previous front shoved the deep moisture a long ways down into the Gulf, and the amount of onshore flow will be limited given the position of the tropical cyclone. No rainfall will be expected with the front, and the upper level pattern will favor a venture way down into the Gulf once again. The timing of said front should be in the previously mentioned Thursday night-Friday morning time frame. No more than a few clouds will occur as the boundary passes through. The brief onshore flow will be replaced by a new offshore flow, and an increase in surface winds. This is in response to the building high and the advancing tropical cyclone. There is absolutely no risk of this tropical cyclone coming towards Louisiana thanks to the upper level flow left behind by the nice cold front over the weekend. Overnight lows on Thursday will reach the lower 60s for most. Greatness carries over into Friday as a pattern of CAA returns behind the front. Afternoon highs will be a notch or two cooler than that of Thursday under wall to wall sunshine. It will finally feel comfortable on Friday night for High School Football. Week 5 weather will feature clear skies and temperatures dropping into the 60s before the end of most of the games. It should be around 75 or so at kickoff. By Saturday morning, lows will be in the upper 50s once again setting the stage for a clear and comfortable weekend.

How many times over the years have we seen it be so nice during the week, and then the weekends not turn out so pretty? That will absolutely not be the case this time. The spectacular September weather will have transitioned into outstanding October weather. The fresh area of high pressure will build in nicely across the NW Gulf Coast, and this will set the stage for the great weather. After morning lows in the upper 50s, perfect conditions will be abound Saturday afternoon with lower to middle 80s for highs once again. Humidity values will drop into the 30% range once again with the super dry air in place. Translation=perfect football weather, and perfect weather to be out standing in the outstanding October weather. LSU plays their 3rd straight home game. Kickoff against SEC East foe the Tennessee Volunteers is at 2:30p.m. for the nationally televised contest on CBS. Game time temperatures should evolve like this...83 at kickoff, 82 halftime, 78 game's end. Maybe the Tiger offense will show up this week! As for our boys from Lake Charles, McNeese, they play in a 2p.m. game at Natchitoches. It's their Southland Conference opener for the 2010 season. If you heading to Natchitoches for said game it should be a very similar temperature regime, perhaps a few ticks cooler given its further North, but still should be in the lower 80s at kickoff and halftime, with upper 70s by game's end. Great football weather indeed. Sunday could even be prettier I suppose. We will have a continuation of the wall to wall sunshine and low humidity, but we'll shave off a few degrees on the temperatures. Morning lows will easily sneak down into the mid to upper 50s once again across the forecast area, while afternoon highs Sunday reach the upper 70s to lower 80s. It will be a beautiful day for anything outdoors after church. The Saints play the Carolina Panthers at noon, and are looking to get back on track after their first defeat of the 2010 season. Of course, the game is in the always comfortable Superdome, so no weather worries, but outside for tailgating and what not it will just as super. Take advantage of the greatness and get out and enjoy.

This is shaping up to be one of the longest stretches of near perfect weather that I can recall around these parts. The cloud-free and rain-free forecast is maintained for Monday and Tuesday of next week to round out the forecast period. A series of re-enforcing high pressures will slide down the base of the Rockies keeping the great October weather locked in place. These highs will have origins in Canada, and our temperatures will continue to decline just a bit. It will be even more suitable temperature wise. Morning lows will be well down into the 50s with mid 50s expected for Monday morning, and low to mid 50s for Tuesday morning. Dare I say, some upper 40s may show up across the coldest locations North of Hwy. 190 by Tuesday morning. A nice warm up is expected with the dry airmass in place, and a persistent offshore flow. The early October sun will result in high temperatures reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s Monday with mid to upper 70s on Tuesday. We have not had a high temperature below 80 degrees at LCH since late April. The Gulf will remain closed for business throughout the forecast period except a short time late Thursday into Friday ahead of the frontal boundary. All tropical systems will be deflected safely away from our part of the world. However, the drought conditions will persist with no rain in sight. I guess that's the only bad side of this weather pattern. We are running a rainfall deficit at Lake Charles now approaching 18" for the entire year 2010, and approaching 5" for the month of September. If the trend continues, we are on pace for one of the driest years on record in SW Louisiana. Models indicate no real hope for rain until sometime around the middle of the month, but even that is shear speculation at this juncture.


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH  56/86  59/87  61/85  0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT   55/86  58/87  60/86  0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT   58/87  60/88  62/85  0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX  53/85  56/86  58/83  0 0 0 0 0 0
POE  53/85  56/86  58/83  0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA  57/86  60/87  63/86  0 0 0 0 0 0


Today...Sunny. High 86. North wind 5-10 mph.

Tonight...Clear. Low 59. Light NE wind.

Thursday...Sunny. High 87. North wind 5-10 mph.

Thursday Night...Clear. Low 61. East wind becoming SE at 5-10 mph.

Friday...Sunny. High 85. NNW wind 10-15 mph.


Wednesday 9/29/10 Daily Planner

6a.m.

Weather: Clear & Cool

Temp: 56
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 2

9a.m.

Weather: Sunny

Temp: 65
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5

Noon

Weather: Sunny

Temp: 78
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 7

3p.m.

Weather: Sunny

Temp: 86
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10

6p.m.

Weather: Sunny

Temp: 80
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 7

9p.m.

Weather: Clear

Temp: 72
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 3


Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Wednesday
9-29-10

Low: 56
High: 86
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10


Thursday
9-30-10

Low: 59
High: 87
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10


Friday
10-1-10

Low: 61
High: 85
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15


Saturday
10-2-10

Low: 58
High: 83
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10


Sunday
10-3-10

Low: 55
High: 80
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10


Monday
10-4-10

Low: 54
High: 79
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10


Tuesday
10-5-10

Low: 52
High: 77
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 5-10


...Tropical Update...

The tropics are alive and kicking once again here in the waning days of September. The tropical wave I mentioned last time we spoke has indeed gotten more organized. This area of disturbed weather has been residing in the Western Caribbean Sea, in the general vicinity of where Matthew formed last week. A Hurricane Hunter Aircraft investigated the suspect area on Tuesday afternoon, and determined that this area had indeed become better organized. They found enough conclusive evidence to upgrade the system to Tropical Depression 16. Advisories were initiated on Tuesday afternoon, and watches and warnings were issued.

Early this morning, Tropical Depression 16 is over Cuba, and is heading NE. It will pass over a small portion of Cuba, and then re-emerge over water into the Florida Straits later today. T.D. 16 formed from a persistent area of showers and thunderstorms and lower pressures in the Western Caribbean, and is in a favorable environment to strengthen into Tropical Storm Nicole. However, it has changed very little in overall structure and intensity since its inception Tuesday. Strengthening is temporarily impeded this morning as the circulation is over Cuba, but once it reaches the Florida Straits later today a favorable environment will await the tropical cyclone. There is a very short window of opportunity for strengthening to occur because of the interaction with land. T.D. 16 is already being influenced by a sharp trough over the Eastern 2/3 of the United States, judging by its NE motion. This motion will continue through the forecast period, and T.D. 16 will accelerate as it reaches some faster upper level winds closer to the frontal trough over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. This will carry the tropical entity on a path parallel to the SE United States. This storm will affect portions of Florida and the Carolinas. However, it will remain a weak system, but should strengthen enough to take on the name Nicole.

The storm will quickly approach South Florida this afternoon, and the current forecast track takes it near Miami this evening. A more rapid forward speed is expected to begin tonight, and T.D. 16 or Nicole will be emerging into the Western Atlantic NE of the Miami area. A transition to extratropical or post-tropical will ensue at this time, as the system begins to merge with the frontal zone approaching from the NW. This will end any chance of development of Nicole, but it will create a rather large extratropical storm with heavy rain and gusty winds for the Eastern Seaboard for the latter half of the week. T.D. 16 is not a classic looking tropical system. It is lopsided in nature. Most of the adverse weather is far removed from the center of circulation with not much convection or winds near the actual center. Most of the weather associated with the tropical system are located well to the East and SE of the center. This will put the heaviest rains and strongest winds over Florida sometime later tonight before conditions quickly subside tonight. The future track of T.D. 16 is one that is more than straightforward when observing the actual atmospheric set up over the region. Thankfully, this will be a quick mover for Florida, and more of a nuisance than anything. Some flooding rains will be possible in the Carolinas where heavy rainfall occurred ahead of the advancing cold front on Monday. This system is absolutely no threat to the NW Gulf, and we won't be talking about T.D. 16 for very long at all.

Tropical Depression 16 Advisory

10p.m. Tuesday, September 28, 2010

...T.D. 16 Affecting Cuba Early This Morning...Strengthening to Tropical Storm Nicole and a Direct Hit Over South Florida is Expected Later Today...

Latitude: 21.9 N

Longitude: 81.9 W

This is about 95 miles SSE of Havana, Cuba & 290 miles SSW of Miami, Florida.

Maximum Sustained Winds: 35 mph w/ higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected today, and this system is forecast to become Tropical Storm Nicole today as it approaches South Florida. The strongest winds exist in rain bands mainly to the East and SE of the center. This system will merge with a frontal zone by tonight.

Movement: NE or 35 degrees @ 8 mph. This motion is expected to continue today with an increase in forward speed expected over the next 24 hours or so.

Minimum Central Pressure: 29.44" or 997 mb.

Watches/Warnings...A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cayman Islands, The Cuban Provinces from Matanzas Eastward to Ciego de Avila, the NW Bahamas, and from Jupiter Inlet to East Cape Sable, Florida including Florida Bay and the Florida Keys.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from Jupiter Inlet to Sebastian Inlet, Florida and from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee, Florida.

Rainfall...Rainfall totals of 5-10" will be commonplace over the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and Cuba. 20" of rain is expected in isolated areas such as the mountainous terrain of Cuba and Jamaica. These rains will lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. The Florida Keys and South Florida can expect to receive 4-8" of rainfall from this tropical cyclone.

Wind...Tropical storm conditions will affect the warning area in Florida later today, and the tropical storm conditions over the Caribbean will subside today.

Tornadoes...Isolated tornadoes are possible today over South Florida.

A weak tropical wave in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean is producing a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms. It is still well to the East of the Lesser Antilles, and will continue moving further West. There is a small chance for development at this stage of the game, but the environment overhead is favorable for development. Development should be a slow process, and it is doubtful that this will become a tropical system within a day or two.

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected through Thursday.


...Marine Forecast...


Today...North winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot.

Tonight...Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 1 foot.

Thursday...North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 foot.

Thursday Night...North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 foot building to 1 to 2 feet after midnight.

Friday...North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.


...Tide Data...

Friday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass

Low:             1:21p.m.
High:             3:26a.m.


...Toledo Bend Pool Level...

    164.84'


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...


Tuesday, September 28, 2010


Low:              54
Normal Low:  65
Record Low:  45-1909
High:              85
Normal High:  85
Record High:  96-1998

Rainfall

Today:                             0.00"
Month to Date:                0.92"
Normal Month to Date:    5.61"
Year to Date:                 26.01"
Normal Year to Date:    43.70"
Record:                           2.30"- 1913


Sensible Weather Observed Today:

None


One Year Ago (2009)

Low:     75
High:     90
Rain:     0.29"


5 Years Ago (2005)

Low:      76
High:      91
Rain:     Trace


10 Years Ago (2000)

Low:     57
High:     86
Rain:    0.00"


Sunrise Wednesday:   7:05a.m.
Sunset  Wednesday:   7:01p.m.


Hunting Times:

6:35a.m.-7:31p.m.


...Lunar Table...

 
Last Quarter- Friday October 1

New Moon- Thursday October 7

Last Quarter- Thursday October 14

Full Moon- Saturday October 23



Have a great Wednesday & God Bless!
-DM-

Finally Fall...

Monday, September 27, 2010

Click below to watch the latest edition of the video blog. Be sure to scroll down for the regular text block.

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Aaaah! Fall has finally arrived! This is very welcomed across the area after a long, miserable summer. The cold front moved into and cleared the entire forecast area Sunday with little fanfare as far as weather is concerned. Some shower and thunderstorm activity develop Saturday afternoon and into Saturday night as a pre-frontal trough moved through the area sparking off the convection during the afternoon hours. Rainfall amounts left a lot to be desired, however. Some activity developed ahead of the boundary on Sunday, but most of this was confined to the SE portion of the forecast area where deeper low level moisture was present. Skies were generally Partly Cloudy over the weekend, but as drier air filtered in behind the front Sunday clearing skies commenced across the forecast area. High temperatures easily reached the 90s again on Saturday, but with the drier and cooler air mass taking over Sunday maxes reached the upper 80s to near 90 on average. This will be the last of the 90s for awhile anyway, and will end the string of above normal temperatures. The cold front resides over the coastal waters early this morning, and clear and calm conditions exist over land. A CAA pattern is ongoing with a nice, refreshing offshore flow over the area. Temperatures will radiate nicely with the dry and cooler air mass continuing to strengthen. Temperatures will start out in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the forecast area this morning.

The weather pattern for this entire forecast period will be benign. Fantastic fall weather is in store with a persistent NW flow aloft and at the surface thanks to building high pressure in the wake of the first real cold front of the season. Monday will begin a string of Spectacular September weather with crystal clear skies, very low humidity, and pleasant temperatures. Temperatures will do a complete 180 from that of previous days. We will now trend below normal if you can believe that. Highs on Monday will range from the upper 70s across the Northern half of the area to the lower 80s for everyone else. The offshore flow will continue with Northerly breezes around 10-15 mph. Absolutely no chance of rain is in the offing. That's the only downside to this pattern, since we are still very much locked into drought conditions across the area. The drought will continue. The coolest weather since early May is expected for the Monday Night-Tuesday morning period. Overnight lows will have absolutely no trouble reaching the very comfortable 50s across the entire forecast area. Open the windows, turn off the A/C! Some lower 50s aren't out of the question for the typical colder spots across the forecast area, but the mid 50s should suffice here along the I-10 corridor, with readings around 60 near the coast.

High pressure at the surface and in the mid and upper levels will prevail Tuesday-Thursday keeping the same beautiful weather in place as we close out the month of September. Nary a cloud will be found with the low humidity in place and the continued offshore flow keeping the Gulf of Mexico closed for business. Similar temperatures are to be expected each day, with a slow modification expected through Thursday. Highs Tuesday should be in the lower 80s once again, with mid 80s in store for Wednesday and Thursday. Morning lows will remain the mid to upper 50s for Wednesday and Thursday morning with some 60s back into the mix by Thursday for some locations. The nice weather lasts through the end of the work week, but a slight change occurs Friday. Surface high pressure slides Eastward, and a light onshore flow returns. However, since the nice front Sunday sent the muggies packing way out into the Gulf, it will still be very pleasant with Sunny skies expected. Morning lows will be back into the lower 60s on average, while Friday afternoon's high reach the mid to upper 80s. The onshore flow will not last long, however. The advancing high pressure will allow another nice front to travel into the forecast area either late Friday or early Saturday. There will be limited moisture in place, so absolutely no rain is expected. There might be a brief period of Partly Cloudy skies at some point late Friday or Friday night as the boundary works its way into the area, but again no rain. The previous air mass won't have nearly enough time to modify to allow a big moisture return, and the lack of any dynamics will also keep rain chances out of the question. The estimated time of arrival for said frontal boundary is still up for debate, but it should generally be in the time frame laid out between Friday evening and Saturday morning. Overall, great weather continues as we start October, and perfect football weather is on tap for this week's High School Football games. Clear skies are expected with temperatures in the 70s at kickoff with 60s by the end of the games pretty much anywhere in the state.

This next front will set the stage for some Outstanding October weather for the weekend. High pressure will re-establish itself across the Gulf Coast in the wake of the boundary. The Gulf of Mexico will be closed for business once again with a offshore flow in place. Sunny skies are expected both Saturday and Sunday, and temperatures will be very similar to what we'll see over the next few days, although models keep trending cooler for the end of the forecast period, and it isn't out of the realm of possibility that it could be even cooler next go around. We will see how this transpires over the week. Either way, it promises to be a beautiful fall weekend. This will be the kind of weather everyone has longed for since we got into our miserable summer pattern back in May. Low temperatures will be near 60 on Saturday morning, and well down into the 50s (mid 50s let's say) for Sunday morning along the I-10 corridor. The full October sun will result in a nice warm up with highs still reaching the lower 80s, however upper 70s for maxes could be promising if the models keep trended cooler and cooler. This is great football weather, and that's great news because we have some more home games. LSU plays their 3rd straight home game. This time against SEC East foe Tennessee. This game kickoffs at 2:30p.m. Saturday afternoon, and you know the rowdy crowd will be raring to go with the feel of fall in the air. McNeese is on the road for an afternoon tilt in Natchitoches. They'll be opening up Southland Conference play against Northwestern, and looking to rebound after Saturday's embarrassing loss to Cal Poly in Lake Charles. That game kickoffs at 2 p.m. Temperatures should be in the low 80s at kickoff for both games, with 70s expected by game's end with nothing but sunshine expected. It will be great weather for any outdoor activities you may have, be it Saturday or Sunday after church. The Saints play at home next Sunday as well against divisional opponent, the Carolina Panthers. No weather issues there, of course, but it will be great weather for driving to the game. In the long range, fabulous fall weather will continue well into the first full week of October with no rain in sight. A series of dry cold fronts should keep the well-deserved fall weather going. We need the rain, and hopefully we will have a pattern shift sometime in the first half of October to allow for a significant rain event. These significant fronts should for all intents and purposes end any threat of tropical activity for this season around these parts. A Gulf storm can still happen in October, but in most cases the fronts act as a buffer from anything tropical. Hello fall, it's nice to see you, welcome back to SW Louisiana!


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH  60/81  56/83  57/85  0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT   60/81  57/83  57/85  0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT   61/82  57/84  58/85  0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX  56/79  53/83  54/85  0 0 0 0 0 0
POE  57/79  53/83  54/85  0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA  62/82  58/84  59/86  0 0 0 0 0 0


Today...Sunny. High 81. NNW wind 10-15 mph.

Tonight...Clear and Cool. Low 56. Light North wind.

Tuesday...Sunny. High 83. North wind 5-10 mph.

Tuesday Night...Clear. Low 57. Light North wind.

Wednesday...Sunny. High 85. NE wind 5-10 mph,


Monday 9/27/10 Daily Planner

6a.m.

Weather: Clear & Cool

Temp: 60
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 7

9a.m.

Weather: Sunny

Temp: 66
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 8

Noon

Weather: Sunny, Beautiful

Temp: 75
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 12

3p.m.

Weather: Sunny, Fall is Here

Temp: 81
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 13

6p.m.

Weather: Sunny, Gonna Be a Beautiful Sunset

Temp: 77
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 9

9p.m.

Weather: Clear, A Great Night

Temp: 68

Rain: 0%
Wind: N 4


Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Monday
9-27-10

Low: 60

High: 81
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10-15


Tuesday
9-28-10

Low: 56

High: 83
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10


Wednesday
9-29-10

Low: 57

High: 85
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10


Thursday
9-30-10

Low: 59

High: 87
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 5-10


Friday
10-1-10

Low: 61
High: 88
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10


Saturday
10-2-10

Low: 60

High: 84
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15


Sunday
10-3-10

Low: 55

High: 80
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15


...Tropical Update...


There are currently no active tropical systems in the Atlantic Basin. Matthew moved inland into Central America and Southern Mexico Friday as a strong tropical storm, and has since unraveled over Mexico producing life-threatening flash floods and mudslides from heavy rains across Mexico and Central America over the weekend. Matthew has lost all sense of any tropical characteristics now, and is officially dead. Lisa underwent a growth spurt Friday, and briefly reached hurricane status while taking advantage of some favorable environmental conditions. The window for strengthening quickly closed on Lisa, and she began falling apart on Saturday, and as of Sunday evening at 4p.m. the National Hurricane Center had written the final advisory on Lisa. Lisa degenerated over the colder waters in the Eastern Atlantic between the Cape Verde Islands and the Azores. The colder waters and increasing wind shear worked in tandem to lead to Lisa's demise.

There are no active storms at the moment, but we do have one area of interest. The Western Caribbean in the vicinity of where Matthew made landfall remains unsettled early on this Monday morning. An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a weak area of low pressure resides in this region. There is some potential for slow development over the next few days, but this area is also in close proximity to land. So, while it may be in a favorable environment for development, its close proximity to Central America could inhibit development. The system should move slowly N or NW through Tuesday. Models have been hinting at some development in this area, and this could be what they were latching onto. We'll just have to wait and see, but either way this will be no threat to SW Louisiana given the upper level pattern over the Gulf of Mexico at this time. No tropical storm formation is expected through Tuesday.

...Marine Forecast...


*Small Craft Advisory in effect until 10a.m.*

Today...North winds 15 to 25 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the afternoon.

Tonight...North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Tuesday...North winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot.

Tuesday Night...North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot.

Wednesday...Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming around 5 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot.


...Tide Data...

Friday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass

Low:       11:40a.m.        11:24p.m.
High:         3:21a.m.          7:24p.m.


...Toledo Bend Pool Level...

    164.88'


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...


Sunday, September 26, 2010


Low:              73
Normal Low:  66
Record Low:  51-2000
High:              90
Normal High:  86
Record High:  98-1910

Rainfall

Today:                             0.00"
Month to Date:                0.92"
Normal Month to Date:    5.25"
Year to Date:                 26.01"
Normal Year to Date:    43.34"
Record:                           3.09"- 1957


Sensible Weather Observed Today:

None


One Year Ago (2009)

Low:     72
High:     89
Rain:     0.00"


5 Years Ago (2005)

Low:      78
High:      91
Rain:     0.00"


10 Years Ago (2000)

Low:     51
High:     71
Rain:    0.00"


Sunrise Monday:   7:04a.m.
Sunset  Monday:   7:03p.m.


Hunting Times:

6:34a.m.-7:33p.m.


...Lunar Table...

 
Last Quarter- Friday October 1

New Moon- Thursday October 7

Last Quarter- Thursday October 14

Full Moon- Saturday October 23



Have a great Monday & God Bless!
-DM-

Remembering Hurricane Rita, SW Louisiana'a Storm...5 Years Ago Today...

Friday, September 24, 2010

As we continue our look back at Hurricane Rita, the following is a very long post, and a very humbling and somber one. As we mark the anniversary of this powerful and devastating storm, this is the culmination of my look back on Rita. It is hard to believe it's been 5 years. The following information appears as is as it was published as Rita drew near. Some of the information in this entry comes straight from the National Weather Service in Lake Charles and the National Hurricane Center in Miami. Also, included is my own personal account of Rita.

This look back at Rita will be very lengthy, but please read it, and feel free to post your comments and questions about the storm. I would love to hear from you. 

Tonight, I continue my look back at the most powerful storm to ever affect SW Louisiana: Hurricane Rita! We all have a story related to the storm, whether you evacuated or stayed behind. Here's my personal account of the storm. This was written shortly after the storm, and while I was still at ULM in the fall of 2005.

Hurricane Rita! The first major hurricane to hit SW Louisiana in 48 years!

September 24, 2005 is a date none of us here will ever forget! It's the day a lot of lives in our beautiful corner of the world were turned upside down by the very worst of Mother Nature. Granted, I'm not trying to take away from the severity of Hurricane Katrina here, but Rita is by far the worst storm to ever hit the Lake Charles area. The national media coverage of Rita was more than subpar. It was like Lake Charles & vicinity never even existed except during the height of the storm, when you saw a few live reports from the city on national media outlets, but then the day after the storm all the attention was back on Katrina's aftermath, and how to rebuild the great city of New Orleans.

I know we'll all have many many stories to tell for years to come about how Rita affected our lives. I can't imagine the horror at the height of the storm for those who stayed. As one who loves weather, part of me wanted to be right here in the thick of the category 3 winds, but the human being in me, had more sense about it all, and stayed in Alexandria at a relative's house. I drove down there from Monroe on Thursday before the storm, and my parents drove off from our home here in Lake Charles that afternoon. It took them about 5 hours to reach Alexandria, a trip that normally takes around 90 minutes or so. I was the only one heading South on Highway 165. That is a visual image that will stick with me forever.

Before I get back into the meteorological aspect of Rita, I want to share some personal feelings I had of Rita. For me, it seemed so surreal after seeing what Rita did to SW Louisiana, after seeing the devastation of Katrina first hand over Labor Day weekend. I was in utter shock and awe when I went to SE Louisiana the weekend after Katrina hit. The first time I came back into Lake Charles after Rita was for fall break the 2nd week of October, and while things were already improving across the area, I was even more in shock after driving around town. You just can't believe something like that can happen until you see it first hand. I didn't think I'd ever see any devastation worse than what I encountered in the Covington-Mandeville area after Katrina, but Rita's damage here in the Lake area surpasses that. I stress that, I by no means, saw the worst of Katrina's damage, and I imagine that the damage in Mississippi is far far worse than that here in Lake Charles and surrounding areas. Cameron Parish, isn't too far behind what happened in coastal Mississippi, and I've heard many people from Cameron Parish who saw the devastation with Katrina in Mississippi, that this is just as bad as that.

I have seen some of the damage in Cameron Parish up close, and it is by far the worst thing I've ever seen. I haven't had a chance yet to get down to the Holly Beach or Johnson Bayou area, but I hope to do so before returning to Monroe for the Spring semester. Here we are, about 3 and a half months after the storm now, and there's still about 60-70% of the structures in Calcasieu Parish with blue roofs, and much of Cameron Parish is still uninhabitable with the mandatory evacuation being lifted just this week. There have been many images on local TV and in the American Press of Cameron Parish, and it is awful. Nothing hits you harder than seeing this happen in your community. It is a blessing that there was very little loss of life here in SW Louisiana/SE Texas because of Rita. I know, a lot of that was as a result of Katrina. Everyone saw how catastrophic Katrina was, and knew that at one point Rita was as strong as Katrina was. So, that combined, with the efforts of our local officials to stress the mandatory evacuation, really helped to cut down on the loss of life. Less than 10 lives combined have been taken as a result of Rita in SW Louisiana/SE Texas.

The 2005 Hurricane season was historic in more ways that one, and it's one that no one in SW Louisiana will ever forget thanks to just one of the 28 named storms.  Can we now officially put the 2005 hurricane to rest? One can only hope, but after having Zeta form a month after the official end of hurricane season, you never know.

Most everyone knows by now, that I disagreed all along with the National Hurricane Center's initial forecast for Rita's landfall to occur in Texas between Galveston and Corpus Christi. Historically, most of the tropical storms make a right hand turn, and in the end Rita was no exception. There were other reasons that led me to believe that SW Louisiana was in trouble. For one, in the days preceding Rita, and really since Katrina the area had been under the influence of a strong ridge of high pressure. We were at the tail end of our summer pattern, but the pattern that set up during the middle of September was more resemblent of July or August. Remember, it's usually around mid-September in which we start getting cold fronts again. September 2005 was different, however. The Bermuda High had built in across the area from the East, and under normal circumstances this high would help produce our typical round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. We also were influenced by the big Desert SW Ridge, that can build in from time to time in the summer months, and make it down right miserably hot with temperatures over 100 (This was what produced the hottest temperature ever recorded in Lake Charles back in the summer of 2000.) So, this put what we call in meteorology, a cap on the atmosphere. Basically, that means we had warm air aloft as well as at the surface, thus suppressing any of the cumulus clouds from building up into the afternoon thunderstorm clouds. Oddly enough, as a result of these high pressures influence the region, we had our hottest stretch of weather this summer in the 4 days preceding Rita.

In their forecast discussions on Rita as she entered the Gulf of Mexico during the week of September 19th, the National Hurricane Center was consistent on the ridge holding firmly in place across SW Louisiana, thus steering Rita to the west towards the middle Texas coast. Another point I should make here is that these storms always follow the path of least resistance. I would read their discussion at each of their updates, and then look at the latest model runs, trying to forecast Rita's landfall. It's always a nervous time when there's a storm in the Gulf, because there's always a chance it could be ours, and it has to go somewhere once in the Gulf.  From the time that Rita was developing, and intensifying in the Florida Keys, I had a feeling like I'd never had before about a storm. I really felt like something was not right about this storm, I just had that feeling of, I think this is the one. As a meteorologist, however, you don't forecast your gut feeling, and I never like to stray away from the National Hurricane Center's forecast for land falling tropical systems, as those guys usually do an excellent job. I analyzed all the model data with each run, and read other forecaster's opinions, and studied the synoptic pattern (large-scale pattern) across the country at that time. For the first few days of forecasting Rita, it was hard to get a read on what the models showed, as they did their usual flip-flop job with Rita. As each day passed I began to become increasingly concerned about a major hurricane threat in SW Louisiana, but I, along with everyone else I'm sure, never dreamed Rita would intensify so rapidly and become a category 5 like Katrina had done just 4 weeks earlier. However, the Gulf did have time to recover after Katrina, because of the unseasonably hot weather, and because the next few storms after Katrina were Atlantic storms.

While my official forecast was very close to the National Hurricane Center's, deep down, I still felt like it was going to be off-track. I based that on how the high pressures were set up at the time, and I knew where they would likely begin to break down first. In this complex situation of being influenced by 2 highs, they'd break down first right in the middle of the 2 axes, and this happened to be over SW Louisiana/SE Texas. I wasn't sure if I thought Rita would hit on the Texas side of the Sabine, or the Louisiana side, but I felt like we were going to see hurricane force winds in Lake Charles. I began telling my friends and family that I believe landfall would be between Sabine Pass and Cameron as a category 3 or 4. The Hurricane Center's forecast still called for landfall near Galveston on the 24th on the Wednesday night preceding Rita.

At that time I had just gotten off the phone with my mom, and was discussing things with her. I was awaiting the new model runs around 10 p.m. that night, and just as I feared, they had all shifted East, and also looking at Rita on satellite, it had taken more of a NW jog. By the time I went to bed that night, I was really concerned. I woke up Thursday morning to get ready for class, and my mom had been trying to get in touch with me. She couldn't get through on the cell phone, so luckily I had left my Instant Messenger connected that night, and she was able to get in touch with me through that. She told me that Calcasieu Parish was under mandatory evacuation orders, and that the storm had turned overnight. This was before I had a chance to look at the latest model data and storm information. I told her that the storm had turned more to the NW last night, before I went to bed, and the new model runs had been shifting further East like I suspected they would. I checked a few more things before I had to leave for class, and I told her, that indeed it was time to leave Lake Charles. It was hard to concentrate on anything else that Thursday.

I went on to class, but planned to head to meet mom and dad in Alexandria that afternoon. There was no way I was going to be away from my family at a time when our house might get torn up---I'm sure everyone else from the area felt the same way.

I ran back to the room after class to pack some things to head to Alexandria for the weekend, and checked the latest data once again. The models continue their Eastward shift, and now all of them had landfall between Galveston and Vermilion Bay, with Sabine Pass being the point of landfall, if you split it down the middle. Rita's wind field was larger than Katrina's, so at this point, I believed it was almost certain we'd see at least category 1 winds in Lake Charles even if landfall occurred more towards Galveston.

I headed off to Alexandria that afternoon, and would check the latest update once again when I got there. I set up shop at my aunt and uncle's house, and gave them the latest information as we waited for mom and dad's arrival. The 10 p.m. update told the story I had been feeling all week long...prepare for a direct hit from a major hurricane in SW Louisiana either late Friday or early Saturday. I checked the synoptics of the situation once again, and I said landfall could be right on the state line, that appeared to be where the weakness in the ridge was strongest. The hurricane center anticipated a storm surge of about 15' to the right of where landfall occurred. This would wipe out most of the coastal communities in Cameron Parish, and drive water up the Calcasieu Ship Channel creating storm surge of 6-8' in Lake Charles. The wind field would produce winds over 100 mph in the Lake Charles and Beaumont areas with a landfall between Sabine Pass and Cameron.

Thursday night was a long night, as I spent most of it forecasting and got very little sleep, and once I woke up on Friday I knew there'd be no sleeping again until Rita was over with, which wouldn't be til Saturday night. So, in all, I was up for about 36 hours straight. Conditions rapidly went downhill on Friday, the 23rd as Rita approached the coastline. The hurricane center continued to state landfall would occur sometime Friday night or Saturday morning in SE Texas or SW Louisiana, and a wobble one way or the other would determine which side of the state line it would occur on, but wouldn't really affect how strong the winds would be since Rita's wind field was massive. In Alexandria, over 100 miles inland, I estimated a wind gust of 85 mph as the storm made its closest approach to Alexandria around mid-morning Saturday.

Another image of Rita that will always stick in my mind is seeing FOX News broadcasting from L'Auberge du Lac at 3 a.m. (just after landfall) and not being able to see anything but all the horizontal rain. It was difficult to watch, as we've never seen weather quite like that in this city in our lifetime. Even I as a meteorologist, who is supposed to be a calm mediator during a time like that, burst into tears. I think it was just me not knowing what's happening to my house, and what will the city I've lived in, and loved all my life look like tomorrow. We lost power twice in Alexandria, so most of the time during the height of the storm my hands were tied, and my information was very limited. I did have full capacity as the eye made landfall at 2:38 a.m. near Johnson Bayou with 120 mph winds. (Cat. 3).

The preliminary report which continues to be updated by the National Weather Service here in Lake Charles shows that wind gusts over 130 mph were recorded along the Calcasieu Ship Channel. Looking at the damage around Calcasieu Parish, I'd say that that was highly possible. I'd estimate winds near 120 mph here at my house, and I am convinced a spin-off tornado from Rita's eastern eye wall traveled right down my street. The bushes in my yard look as though they were nearly sucked right out of the ground, and all the trees that were standing at the end of the street in the woods behind the fence are down, and facing different directions, as well as the trees in the field across Nelson Road. Note, that most tornadoes travel from SW to NE, and if you draw a line of the damage path through my subdivision and across Nelson Road it takes the track that a tornado would. Tornadoes are very common in the eastern side of a hurricane, and the official number of tornadoes with the eyewall of Rita is not known at this time. There were likely so many that occurred between Beaumont and Lake Charles, that the Weather Service can't possibly keep track. The eastern eyewall passed directly over the cities of Lake Charles and Sulphur, and that is where some of the strongest winds occur. The storm surge reached 6' along the shores of Lake Charles, and on the Calcasieu River in downtown Lake Charles. The Intracoastal Waterway created storm surge flooding all the way up to the Airport with 2' of water covering Gauthier Road between Nelson Road and Big Lake Road. There was total devastation from the storm surge in Cameron Parish in communities such as Holly Beach, Constance Beach, Cameron, and Johnson Bayou. More information on the storm surge and wind speeds can be found from the National Weather Service's Lake Charles site at www.srh.noaa.gov/lch

SW Louisiana shows signs of recovery from our area's worst natural disaster everyday, but it will take many years to rebuild Cameron Parish to what it once was before Rita. Here, in Lake Charles, we still have a lot of work to do to get back to what we were before the storm, but I know with the heart and determination of the great people of SW Louisiana we will do so for Lake Charles and all of our towns here in SW Louisiana. Rita is a storm none of us will ever forget, and it has once again reassured me that meteorology is where I belong. Everyone has told me what a good job I did forecasting Rita, and I appreciate that, but this was one of the few times that I wanted to be wrong as a meteorologist.

My hope is that everyone will always pay attention to the weather, and that after enduring a storm as powerful as Rita, realize how important it is to know what the weather will do. The 2005 hurricane season was one for the record books with Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma affecting the United States as major hurricanes, and no one in this state will ever forget Katrina and Rita.  Let's all hope and pray that SW Louisiana and everyone else affected by storms recently, can have a speedy recovery, and that it will be a really long time before we ever see a storm of that magnitude again. 

*Again, this is the post as it was actually produced back in late 2005.

Now, as we continue a look back at Rita, here is my forecast discussion and information from the NWS Lake Charles and National Hurricane Center from Thursday, September 22, and Friday, September 23, 2005 leading up to the onslaught of Rita.

Thursday, September 22, 2005! RITA A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE CONTINUES MOVING TOWARDS NW GULF COAST... *FORECAST TRACK AND ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SHIFTS EASTWARD.* *THREAT FOR A MAJOR HURRICANE IN SW LOUISIANA DRAMATICALLY INCREASING THIS MORNING.* *MANDATORY EVACUATIONS FOR CAMERON PARISH, AND CALCASIEU PARISH SOUTH OF I-10.* My advice to all of us is to leave the city of Lake Charles as soon as possible. It appears likely that we will see hurricane force winds in the Lake area. DO NOT PANIC! DO NOT PANIC! Prepare your home and property for the possibility of sustained hurricane force winds. Fill up your car with gas, and take as many valuables with you as you can. Take extra cash, and make arrangements for your pets! This is a life-threatening situation, and it is going to be a very catastrophic storm in the areas along and just to the right of where the eye makes landfall. This will be a storm that changes many people's lives across SE Texas and SW Louisiana. If for some reason, you can't leave your home, please make sure you have enough food and supplies for at least a week. Power outages will occur, and may last for weeks. Stay tuned to local media outlets and your local authorities! Following is the latest advisory on Hurricane Rita from the National Hurricane Center! POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE RITA OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...SLIGHT WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED TODAY. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA.  A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA...FROM EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE RITA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE  88.3 WEST OR ABOUT 490 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT  595 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 491 MILES SSE OF LAKE CHARLES. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED NEAR 170 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES RITA A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST BUT RITA IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...AT LEAST CATEGORY THREE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  70 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 907 MB...26.78 INCHES.  TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE SOME COASTAL FLOODING. HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH RITA ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES FROM THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST TO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ..INCLUDING THE NEW ORLEANS METROPOLITAN AREA. AFTER RITA MOVES INLAND...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN TEXAS... AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...25.2 N... 88.3 W.  MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR  9 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...170 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 907 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 AM CDT. I will have more information a little this morning, due to time constraints, I must end this one! I promise you that I will update as much as I can as long as Rita is a threat, and as long as I have power. Take care and pray for the best! -Drew-

Thursday, September 22, 2005!


*CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE RITA AIMED AT UPPER TEXAS COAST AND SW LOUISIANA COAST.*

If you haven't left the area yet, I advise you to please do so as soon as possible. This will be the absolute worst weather than any of us have ever seen. This storm will be worse than the current benchmark storm for SW Louisiana, Hurricane Audrey in 1957.
Ironically, Audrey was the last time SW Louisiana received a direct hit from a major hurricane.
Below, I will post the latest information from the National Hurricane Center, and then I will post the latest statements from the National Weather Service in Lake Charles, LA. I will conclude the update with my discussion, and what I believe will happen across the area.

EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE RITA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN....AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE.  THE WATCH IN MEXICO MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 90.6 WEST OR ABOUT 325 MILES...525 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 285 MILES... 460 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS LATE FRIDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  RITA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  80 MILES...130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM.  ANY TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE NEW ORLEANS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO A FEW SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH QUICKLY MOVING RAINBANDS.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 921 MB...27.20 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE COASTAL FLOODING.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AS IT MOVES INLAND. SINCE RITA IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA.  IN ADDITION...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.

REPEATING THE 1 AM CDT POSITION...26.4 N... 90.6 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 921 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM CDT.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/031210.shtml?3day?large

Now, here's the latest statement from the NWS Lake Charles office!
HURRICANE RITA... STILL AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COASTS...

...HURRICANE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTLINE...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...CAMERON...CALCASIEU...JEFFERSON DAVIS...ACADIA... VERMILION...LAFAYETTE...UPPER AND LOWER SAINT MARTIN...IBERIA AND SAINT MARY PARISHES IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

...WATCHES/WARNING...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD
BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JEFFERSON...ORANGE...HARDIN...TYLER...JASPER AND NEWTON COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND FOR BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...CAMERON...VERMILION...IBERIA...SAINT MARY...LOWER SAINT MARTIN...JEFFERSON DAVIS AND ALLEN PARISHES IN LOUISIANA.

AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR VERNON... RAPIDES... AVOYELLES... EVANGELINE...SAINT LANDRY...LAFAYETTE...AND UPPER SAINT MARTIN PARISHES IN LOUISIANA.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.3 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 340 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS...OR ABOUT 310 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THIS TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE STORM ASHORE ALONG THE EXTREME UPPER TEXAS COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT
HURRICANE RITA IS NOT A POINT...BUT A LARGE STORM COVERING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. ITS IMPACTS WILL BE FELT NOT JUST AT THE POINT OF LANDFALL BUT FOR A LONG DISTANCE AWAY FROM THE CENTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  RITA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREME DAMAGE ALONG ITS PATH. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS BUT RITA IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST AS A MAJOR CATEGORY THREE OR FOUR HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE FOLLOWING ARE CURRENT EVACUATION ORDERS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...

NEWTON...JASPER...ORANGE AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES...MANDATORY FOR ENTIRE COUNTIES.

CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES...MANDATORY FOR ENTIRE PARISH.

JEFF DAVIS PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 AND ALL OTHER LOW LYING AREAS.

VERMILION PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 14 AND PEOPLE IN ALL MOBILE HOMES OR SPECIAL MEDICAL NEEDS. VOLUNTARY FOR ALL OTHERS.

ACADIA PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 92 AND VOLUNTARY FOR OTHERS IN LOW LYING AREAS OR RESIDENTS IN LIGHT HOUSING OR MOBILE HOMES..

SAINT LANDRY PARISH...VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS FOR PEOPLE LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND MOBILE HOMES.

ST. MARY PARISH...MANDATORY SOUTH OF THE INTRACOASTAL CANAL. VOLUNTARY FOR ALL OTHERS.

LOWER ST. MARTIN PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SPECIAL NEEDS PATIENTS AND VOLUNTARY FOR EVERYONE ELSE.

IBERIA PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF HIGHWAYS 90 AND 14.

LAFAYETTE PARISH...VOLUNTARY FOR PEOPLE IN MOBILE HOMES... LOW-LYING AREAS...AND PEOPLE WITH SPECIAL MEDICAL CONDITIONS THAT REQUIRE ELECTRICITY.

EVANGELINE PARISH...VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS FOR PEOPLE LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND IN HOUSING THAT CANNOT SUSTAIN TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS.

BEAUREGARD PARISH...VOLUNTARY FOR PEOPLE IN LOW LYING AREAS OR IN MOBILE HOMES.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS RECOMMEND THAT INDIVIDUALS TAKE SUPPLIES TO LAST THEM FOR 3 TO 5 DAYS.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES AND CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES...MAXIMUM STORM SURGES OF 15 TO 20 FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THIS WILL BRING GULF WATERS AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 10 ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF LAKE CHARLES AND SULPHUR LOUISIANA...AND ORANGE AND BEAUMONT TEXAS.

HIGH STORM SURGE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 8 TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

VERMILION PARISH...MAXIMUM STORM SURGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET. THIS WILL FLOOD LAND AROUND PECAN ISLAND AND INTRACOASTAL CITY. SECTIONS OF DELCAMBRE WILL BE UNDER WATER.

IBERIA AND ST. MARY PARISHES...MAXIMUM STORM SURGE BETWEEN 6 AND 10 FEET. THIS WILL FLOOD SECTIONS OF CYPREMORT POINT AND BURNS POINT...AND LOW-LYING AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 FROM FRANKLIN TO MORGAN CITY.


NORMAL HIGH AND LOW TIDES AT:

SABINE PASS:
FRIDAY       LOW / 2:19 PM/0.1 FT  
SATURDAY     HIGH/12:39 AM/2.1 FT     LOW/3:30 PM/0.2 FT

CALCASIEU PASS:
FRIDAY       LOW/1:33 PM/0.1 FT       HIGH/11:43 PM/2.6 FT
SATURDAY     LOW/2:44 PM/0.3 FT

SOUTHWEST PASS:
FRIDAY       LOW/ 2:24 PM/0.1 FT
SATURDAY     HIGH/1:25 AM/2.1 FT      LOW/3:34 PM/0.3 FT


BASED ON THE PROJECTED STORM SURGE VALUES...MAJOR RIVER FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER REACHES OF THE CALCASIEU...WHERE CRESTS OF 9 TO 10 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED. MAJOR FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY ALONG THE MERMENTAU RIVER...WHERE CRESTS OF 7 TO 8 FEET ARE EXPECTED.

...WIND IMPACTS...
ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND THE BORDER PARISHES OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WILL EXPERIENCE EXTREME WINDS OF LONG DURATION AS THIS LARGE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF AND INTO EAST TEXAS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT...SPREADING ASHORE ACROSS THE ATCHAFALAYA AND VERMILION BAYS AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY...THEN CONTINUING INLAND AS FAR AS ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA AND JASPER TEXAS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS RITA NEARS THE COASTLINE...REACHING 50 TO 60 MPH ACROSS
MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA TO LEESVILLE LOUISIANA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD NORTH AND WEST TO THE COASTLINE BY SUNDOWN. WINDS OF 70 TO 80 MPH WILL AFFECT MOST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AS WELL AS CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES...OVER THE COURSE OF FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS OF 100 MPH OR GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES.

WINDS WILL VERY GRADUALLY DIMINISH SATURDAY ONCE THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL AND MOVES FURTHER NORTH INTO EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS.

SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE EXTREME WINDS AND THE LENGTHY DURATION OF THEM. NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES WILL BE DOWNED...WITH WIDESPREAD AND EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES LIKELY. SOME STRUCTURES WILL ALSO FAIL.

...RAINFALL IMPACTS...
EXTREME RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY RITA...WITH A STORM TOTAL OF 8 TO 12 INCHES EXPECTED. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

...TORNADO IMPACTS...
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AS RITA APPROACHES THE COASTLINE.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON HURRICANE RITA WILL BE ISSUED BY 200 AM CDT.

Here's another statement from the NWS Lake Charles...

POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE RITA EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL    EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ON THE JEFFERSON COUNTY COAST. THE LARGE HURRICANE WIND FIELD WILL COVER ALL OF  SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THESE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL EXTEND FAR INLAND FROM THE COAST. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WILL EXTEND INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AS WELL.

...INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT SATURDAY.

...CATASTROPHIC DAMAGE EXPECTED TO MAN MADE AND NATURAL STRUCTURES...

THE EYE WALL OF HURRICANE RITA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE JEFFERSON COUNTY COAST AS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WITH THE EYE WALL COULD BE AROUND 130 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 165 MPH WHEN IT HITS THE COAST. DUE TO SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND SIZE OF THE EYE WALL...THE EXACT LOCATION ALONG THE UPPER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST MAY CHANGE SLIGHTLY BETWEEN NOW AND SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE FOLLOWING DAMAGE CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE EYE WALL OF A HURRICANE WITH THIS STRENGTH.

HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL BE SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE TO ROOF AND WALLS. DESTRUCTION MAY OCCUR TO HOMES WITH GABLED ROOFS...WITH THE WIND LIFTING THEM OFF. MORE THAN HALF OF ALL INDUSTRIAL
BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED...OTHERS WILL HAVE PARTIAL ROOF AND WALL DAMAGE. WOOD FRAMED GARDEN APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED...AND OTHERS WILL HAVE PARTIAL ROOF AND WALL FAILURES.

HIGH RISE OFFICE BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY. MOST WINDOWS WILL BE BLOWN OUT...AND MODERATE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS...SOME PIECES GREATER THAN 50 POUNDS...WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE DAMAGE. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS ARE AT GREAT RISK FOR INJURY OR DEATH.

ELECTRICITY AND WATER WILL BE UNAVAILABLE FOR DAYS...AND PERHAPS WEEKS...AFTER THE STORM PASSES. THE MAJORITY OF TREES WILL BE SNAPPED AND UPROOTED...MOST COMMON AMONG THOSE OF SMALL AND MEDIUM SIZE. CITRUS ORCHARDS WILL BE DESTROYED AS WILL ALL NEWLY PLANTED GROUND CROPS. ESTABLISHED GROUND CROPS WILL HAVE DAMAGE...WITH UP TO ONE HALF OF FIELDS NO LONGER ARABLE. LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE CRITICALLY INJURED OR KILLED.

OTHER AREAS A LARGE DISTANCE FROM THE ACTUAL EYE WALL WILL SEE AT-LEAST HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AROUND 75 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 90 MPH. THESE AREAS CAN EXPECT THE FOLLOWING TYPES OF DAMAGE.

...VERY DANGEROUS WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE...
...DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES LIKELY...

...STRUCTURAL DAMAGE...
THE MAJORITY OF MOBILE HOMES WILL BE SEVERELY DAMAGED. THOSE THAT SURVIVE WILL BE UNINHABITABLE UNTIL REPAIRED. HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING PARTIAL WALL COLLAPSE AND ROOFS BEING LIFTED OFF. MANY WILL BE UNINHABITABLE. WELL CONSTRUCTED HOUSES WILL INCUR MINOR DAMAGE TO SHINGLES...SIDING...
GUTTERS...AS WELL AS BLOWN OUT WINDOWS. UP TO ONE QUARTER OF GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL.

PARTIAL ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED AT INDUSTRIAL PARKS...ESPECIALLY TO THOSE BUILDINGS WITH LIGHT WEIGHT STEEL AND ALUMINUM COVERINGS. OLDER LOW RISING APARTMENT ROOFS MAY ALSO BE TORN OFF...AS WELL AS
RECEIVING SIDING AND SHINGLE DAMAGE. UP TO ONE QUARTER OF ALL GLASS IN HIGH RISE OFFICE BUILDINGS WILL BE BLOWN OUT. AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL CAUSE DAMAGE...INJURY...AND POSSIBLE FATALITIES.

...NATURAL DAMAGE...
ALL TREES WITH ROTTING BASES WILL BECOME UPROOTED OR SNAP. NEARLY ALL LARGE BRANCHES WILL SNAP...AND MAJOR DAMAGE IS EXPECTED TO CITRUS ORCHARDS...INCLUDING NUMEROUS UPROOTED TREES. BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND
ONE HALF OF HEALTHY SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED...MOST COMMON WHERE THE GROUND IS SATURATED. UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF NEWLY PLANTED GROUND CROPS WILL BE DAMAGED.

Now, here's my discussion...

It can't be stressed enough, if you live in any of the areas that have issued a mandatory evacuation, or a voluntary or recommended evacuation, and you can leave, plase do so. This is a very very serious and deadly situation. None of us have ever seen a storm of this magnitude here in SW Louisiana. There will be widespread severe damage here in the city of Lake Charles from winds over 100 mph. We also have to worry about storm surge flooding here in town, as the surge along and to the East of the center will be around 25 feet or greater. This will send the storm surge all the way up to I-10 and the National Weather Service expects flooding from storm surge in Lake Charles, Sulphur, Beaumont, and Orange. There could be over 5 feet of water in downtown Lake Charles.

This will be a similar situation to Hurricane Katrina 3 weeks ago on the Mississippi Gulf Coast. As a general rule of thumb, the storm surge with Hurricane Audrey reached as far inland as Lake Charles Regional Airport. This storm surge will literally wipe the towns along the coast off the map. Numerous trees will be downed or uprooted across the entire area. Expect widespread power outages across the entire area as well, for days and probably weeks, maybe up to a month in some areas. Food and water supplies will be greatly affected, and it will be very hard to find these essentials for quite some time. There will be gasoline shortages, as well as long-term communication disruptions across the area. This will by far be the worst natural disaster ever to strike SW Louisiana.

It is very common in tropical systems to see tornadoes on the right hand side of this storm. We will begin to see the threat for tornadoes Friday afternoon, and this threat may continue through at least Monday across much of the state. This storm will likely stall out somewhere in East or NE Texas or Western Louisiana. This will result in catastrophic flooding in some areas, as the moisture is just pumped over our area. Rainfall amounts as the hurricane makes landfall will likely be 10-15" across Southern sections of the area, and 5-10" across northern portions. This is just the rainfall totals as Rita approaches the coast, and moves inland. Some locations may wind up with over 30" of rain. The flooding in itself will have the potential to cause a prolific death toll as well. Many parts of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks, so plan on staying wherever you have evacuated to for at least a few weeks.

This is a storm that will affect everyone's life, and it will change the landscape of SW Louisiana forever. Tropical Storm force winds begin to affect SW Louisiana from SE to NW on Friday morning. These winds of 39-73 mph will begin being felt in the Acadiana area by sunrise Friday, and in the Lake Charles area by mid morning Friday, and by noon in SE Texas. By Friday evening, hurricane force winds will be approaching the coast. I think that hurricane force winds will reach Lake Charles around midnight Saturday or a little sooner, and last til around noon Saturday. On the current forecast track, I expect winds of category 3 strength in Lake Charles, around 120 mph. These winds will be much higher down along the coast at Cameron where winds up to 150 mph are possible with higher gusts. Hurricane force winds could be felt as far north as Alexandria. Sustained tropical storm force winds may extend all the way into Southern Arkansas. There will be power outages and tons of downed trees as far inland as I-20, not to mention the damage the flooding could do. Remember, the threat for tornadoes! These tornadoes will be rain-wrapped, and will occur with little or no advanced warning. You likely won't see the tornado at all, and will only hear it when it is right on top of you. I expect the Storm Prediction Center to issue a tornado watch for the entire area by Friday afternoon. Like I said, the tornado threat may continue into Monday. These systems tend to spin off more tornadoes as they wind down.

That will do it for now, I will more updates during the day Friday. I'm gonna try and get some sleep! I don't think I'll be getting any sleep for the next couple days! Not many of us will! This is the proverbial calm before the storm! At this point, I hope everyone has left the area, and made all the preparations to their homes and property. All I can recommend at this point, is prayer! There's nothing stronger than the power of prayer, and our fate lies in the hands of God! Take care everyone, please leave the area, be safe, and God bless all of us facing this catastrophic hurricane!

-Drew-


It wouldn't be a look back at Rita without some videos and pictures. 


These pictures are a perfect illustration of what storm surge can do and did. The surge is the most devastating aspect of the storm along the coast. 

Holly Beach, LA before and after Rita.

Another image of Holly Beach, LA after Rita

Now, courtesy of The National Weather Service here are some pictures from the extensive damage Rita caused in Lake Charles:

 

For a look at tons more pictures of damage around the area, log on to the National Weather Service Lake Charles Hurricane Rita page: NWS Rita Page

To close out our look back at Rita: SW Louisiana's Storm here's links to some  YouTube videos. 

A Video Set to Music That Shows Damage from across the Area including SE Texas and SW Louisiana 

Coverage of Rita on The Weather Channel  

Watch as Weather Channel Meteorologist Jeff Morrow reports live from Sulphur before the worst of Rita arrives 

In closing, here's a bit more on Rita:

Rita was a historical storm in every sense of the word. At peak intensity, Rita became the most intense storm ever recorded in the Gulf of Mexico with top winds of 180 mph and a pressure of 897 mb. Rita set a record for rapid intensification as the pressure dropped 70 mb. in 24 hours...from 967 mb. at 10p.m. on Tuesday September 20 to 897 mb. at 10p.m. on Wednesday September 21. This pressure reading also made Rita the third most intense hurricane on record in the entire Atlantic Basin at the time. Rita strengthened from a tropical storm to a category 5 hurricane in about 36 hours, and maintained category 5 strength for about 18 hours. 

Rita caused the largest evacuation of the Gulf coast in history at the time. Most of SW Louisiana was uninhabitable for several weeks after the storm with authorities officially keeping Calcasieu Parish closed into the first full week of October. Cameron and Vermilion Parishes was uninhabitable for much longer due to the widespread destruction from the storm surge. Power and other essentials didn't return for much of the area until early October. The flooding from the storm was a bigger issue than freshwater flooding from heavy rainfall, because the summer of 2005 was very dry, and widespread drought conditions were in place across the area when Rita hit. The entire area saw 8-12" of rainfall with Rita, but this didn't lead to any additional flooding problems. While no official count has been given on the number of tornadoes from Rita across SW Louisiana, Rita was responsible for the largest number of spin-off tornadoes from any tropical cyclone, and the largest September tornado outbreak in history as well. The National Hurricane Center reports that at least 90 tornadoes occurred as a result of Rita, and this number is likely higher since the count is unknown across our area. Rita is monumental in that nearly every structure across the area experienced some sort of damage whether it was just a few shingles missing off a roof or complete destruction, it affected all of us, and for many of us our lives will never be the same. It is a crying shame that Rita is so forgotten by so many. Those of us here will never forget.

Hurricane Rita is certainly by far the worst natural disaster ever experienced in our area, and will now be considered the benchmark storm for the area surpassing Hurricane Audrey from 1957. The 2005 was historical in many ways, and while there may have been 28 named storms, as far as those of here in Louisiana are concerned there was really only 2. It is a wonderful blessing that there was very minimal loss of life in our area from this most destructive storm. Some of this can certainly be attributed to Katrina 3 and a half weeks earlier, and I believe had Katrina not happened, many many people would have stayed home, and the loss of life would have been far greater than it was. SW Louisiana is a great place to live, and it is and always will be home. The hearts and generosity of the people of SW Louisiana are bigger than anywhere else in the world, and in our darkest moments neighbors helped neighbors, and we all worked together to get our lives back in order. Just another example of why I'm proud to live in SW Louisiana, and will always call it home. I offer my prayers and thoughts to all of you who are still recovering from Rita, and I hope that you will all join me in praying for continued protection from these very serious storms in the future. God bless all of you and God bless SW Louisiana and SE Texas!!!

-DM-