SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion....The string of nice weekends was broken!!! After a dreary weekend with persistent rain for much of Saturday, and a low-level stratus deck in place today, conditions will vastly improve to start the abbreviated work week. Our most significant rainfall in a good 3 weeks occurred on Friday and Saturday in response to the Gulf low, and cut off upper level low which moved right overhead Saturday. This type of system is very typical of an El Nino pattern, and I would certainly expect this scenario to repeat itself many times over the next few months, but not this week. It was quite cool for the entire weekend with temperatures remaining in the 50s for the most part for much of the area. Temperatures remained below seasonable values today with the overcast conditions. Highs were generally around 60, although warmer conditions occurred across SE Texas where a good deal of sunshine was experienced. The low clouds hung tough over Louisiana around the back side of the low pressure which was over Florida this afternoon. Skies have finally cleared across much of SW Louisiana, but still remain in place over much of Acadiana. The rest of the forecast area will slowly clear out overnight. However, there is another issue to contend with tonight. It is very common this time of year when the nights are longer than the days for fog to develop, and tonight is certainly one of those nights. The widespread rainfall of the couple of days, the clearing skies, calm winds, the remaining low-level moisture in place, and lack of daytime heating today will all combine to produce very favorable conditions for fog development overnight. It won't be foggy everywhere, but the majority of the area should see some fog. It will be dense in some locations by morning, and for this reason a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for much of the forecast area. This excludes Acadiana where the low clouds will hang tough. Expect the fog to form and gradually get thicker overnight, with visibilities in some locales less than 1/4 of a mile. The fog will quickly burn off Monday morning. It will be seasonably cool overnight with lows in the mid to upper 40s in areas where it is clear, but for Acadiana temperatures will be some degrees warmer because of the clouds.
Monday, as fate would have it, will be very nice after a lackluster weekend. As soon as the fog dissipates early Monday morning, it will be a sunny and pleasant day across the forecast area with weak high pressure in control. Highs will reach the lower 70s. Light and variable winds will prevail, before becoming SE in the afternoon as the weak high slides away from the forecast area. The subtle return flow will not be so noticeable at first with clear skies expected for the day. Quiet weather continues Monday night, but some clouds will return after midnight as the return flow becomes more pronounced. Expect overnight minimums to be a bit warmer in the lower 50s. Fog should be much of a problem with the increase in clouds and enough winds to keep the atmosphere mixed up. Our next cold front is on the docket for Tuesday. Another chance of rain is slated ahead of this, but moisture and dynamics will be limited across the area, so a significant rain event is not expected. It will be the front itself that creates the necessary lift needed to generate showers and thunderstorms. It is prudent to include the rain chances with the approaching boundary, but I stress that not everyone will see rain in this situation. It will be another in and out situation as well, similar to last Monday. A thunderstorm or two can't be ruled out, but certainly no severe weather is expected. Rainfall amounts will be sparse with generally a 1/4" or less. Only about a 20-30% chance of rain is inserted in the forecast. This could fluctuate a bit between now and Tuesday, but I don't see it much higher than about 30% as there is good consistency with the models that dynamics will be lacking. A fast upper level flow will be driving this system through the area quickly...it's trying to stay ahead of all the Thanksgiving traffic. A strong onshore flow will be present ahead of the front Tuesday in response to the usual pressure differential ahead of a trough. The current estimated time of arrival of said cold front right now looks to be between 20Z and 23Z (2p.m.-5p.m. CST). A quick turnaround will occur behind the front as well with a steep offshore flow replacing the onshore flow as the moist air mass is displaced. Mild temperatures will prevail for Tuesday with maximum expected to be in the lower 70s ahead of the front, before falling late in the wake of the boundary. CAA takes over and skies clear quickly on Tuesday night with high pressure building in behind the front. Expect cooler overnight lows with readings falling back into the 40s with gusty North winds.
Wednesday is a very important day as it is often dubbed the "busiest travel day of the year". Many people will be hitting the road, or taking to the skies for a Thanksgiving destination. Locally, the weather looks great for travel or anything on Wednesday. High pressure will dominate the forecast, and this will set us up for an extended period of fabulous fall weather. Clear and cool conditions will be present to start Wednesday with mid to upper 40s. It will continue to be a bit breezy as CAA continues in the wake of Tuesday's front. Highs will be below seasonable averages, but not by much with official readings in the low to mid 60s. The air mass behind Tuesday's front will be similar to the one that was present last week. The weather for Thanksgiving 2009 looks about as good as it ever gets in SW Louisiana and SE Texas. The trough over the Eastern U.S. will amplify (intensify) as we head into Thanksgiving. This will make the NW flow aloft already in place more pronounced and drive a re-enforcing front through the area. Moisture will be scant, so no rain is expected, and likely not even a cloud. The clear and pleasant conditions will be re-enforced with even cooler weather to follow for the rest of the Thanksgiving weekend. For Thanksgiving itself, expect a morning low in the lower 40s. Afternoon highs will be a shade cooler thanks to the re-enforcement; expect low to mid 60s.
Friday is a big shopping day, but if you're like me you won't be anywhere near a store...maybe you'll be outside doing something else enjoying what will be a great day. The coolest morning of the season appears to be on tap with high pressure in place nestled right over Texas. The strong high will build in from the Central Plains. Some areas saw frost mid-week last week. Many of these same areas will likely see frost again by Friday morning, and perhaps a few additional areas including perhaps here in Lake Charles. Mid to upper 30s seem likely for minimum values across the forecast area for Friday morning. Highs will be a bit cool, but it'll feel great with readings between the upper 50s and lower 60s. It should feel cool after all, right? It is Thanksgiving after all. The perfection continues for Saturday with the pronounced anticyclonic flow in place with the strong ridge residing along the Gulf coast. Another cold morning should materialize with upper 30s to lower 40s area wide while afternoon highs reach the mid 60s under wall-to-wall sunshine. It should be fantastic for some playoff football at Cowboy Stadium. McNeese hosts the University of New Hampshire in the 1st round of the FCS Playoffs, but it is a day game...a 2p.m. kickoff. Clear and cool is in store for Saturday night at 6p.m. in Baton Rouge for the Tigers-Razorbacks game. I'll get specific about temperatures for each game later in the week.
It is possible that we could make through the entire Thanksgiving holiday weekend without any rain? This is not a foregone conclusion by any means, and it is likely that we will see the makings of our next storm system developing over the weekend. Models suggest initiation of an onshore flow developing late Saturday, and becoming more pronounced Sunday with the controlling ridge centered over the Eastern Gulf coast. Air mass modification should be in place on Sunday as many people head home. Depending on the timing and strength of the next system, some rain chances may have to be introduced before day's end, but I will leave it out for now. Nevertheless, I'd expect clouds to begin increasing during the day Sunday. It should still be a bit cool in the morning with lows back into the mid 40s with the return flow in place while afternoon highs reach the mid to upper 60s. It is far too early to get specific about the next significant rain maker for the forecast area, but this looks to come just beyond the realm of this forecast period beginning next Monday, 30 November. There is a wide range of solutions as to how its timing and intensity. There is also some wonderment as to what kind of system it will be. There is a general idea that it may another Gulf low situation at first, eventually phasing into another cold front. Either way, all signals point to a significant rainfall event to round out the month. This may carry over into the first of December, and the start of meteorological winter. The overall pattern for early December favors cold and wet, very typical of El Nino around these parts.
Tropics: Nada. Just a little over a week left in the season now.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 48/72 50/70 48/64 0 0 0 20 0 0
LFT 54/73 49/71 47/64 0 0 0 30 20 0
BPT 48/73 55/71 49/65 0 0 0 20 0 0
AEX 53/71 48/68 44/62 0 0 0 30 20 0
POE 51/72 49/69 45/63 0 0 0 30 20 0
ARA 55/73 51/72 48/65 0 0 0 20 20 0
*Dense Fog Advisory until 9a.m. CST Monday.*
Tonight...Becoming Clear with areas of dense og forming overnight. More dense to the South and West. Visibilities less than 1/4 mile towards morning. Low 48. Calm wind.
Monday...Areas of fog dissipate by mid-morning otherwise Sunny. High 72. SE wind 5-10 mph.
Monday Night...Clear, but becoming Partly Cloudy towards morning. Low 50. SE wind 5-10 mph.
Tuesday...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms afternoon. High 70. SSE wind 10-15, becoming NNW at 15-20 mph and gusty late.
Tuesday Night...Clearing, Windy, and Cooler. Low 48. NNW wind 10-15 mph and gusty.
Wednesday...Sunny. High 64 NNW wind 10-15 mph.
Drew's 7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity
Monday
11-23-09
Low: 48
High: 72
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 5-10
Tuesday
11-24-09
Low: 50
High: 70
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 15-20/NNW 15-20
Wednesday
11-25-09
Low: 48
High: 64
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
Thursday
11-26-09
Thanksgiving Day
Low: 43
High: 63
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
Friday
11-27-09
Low: 38
High: 61
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
Saturday
11-28-09
Low: 39
High: 64
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
Sunday
11-29-09
Low: 44
High: 67
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east after midnight. Seas 2 feet.
Monday...East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Areas of dense fog with visibility 1 nm or less in the morning. Visibility 1 nm or less in the morning.
Monday Night...East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet.
Tuesday...East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers.
Tuesday Night...North winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet after midnight. A slight chance of showers.
Wednesday...North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
...Tide Data...
Monday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 12:38p.m.
High: 8:55p.m.
...Toledo Bend...
172.46'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Sunday, November 22, 2009
Low: 50
Normal Low: 48
Record Low: 29-1898
High: 61
Normal Low: 48
Normal High: 69
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 1.92"
Normal Month to Date: 3.35"
Year to Date: 63.86"
Normal Year to Date: 51.33"
Record: 3.11"-1979
Sunrise Monday: 6:45a.m.
Sunset Monday: 5:14p.m.
Monday Hunting Times: 6:15a.m.-5:44p.m.
...Lunar Table...
First Quarter- Tuesday November 24
Full Moon- Wednesday December 2
Last Quarter- Wednesday December 9
New Moon- Wednesday December 16
Good night and God bless!
-DM-
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