SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The beautiful clear skies are "Already Gone" and you know "You're Gonna Miss This" as a return flow has commenced across the area on this Thursday evening. Mid and high level cloudiness has overspread much of the forecast area, and this will continue through the night with Mostly Cloudy skies encompassing the entire area by morning. Even with the clouds rolling in this afternoon, ahead of schedule, no less, it was a nice mid-November day with pleasant temperatures. Morning lows were generally in the 40s area wide. The return flow was more pronounced near the coast as you would expect, and temperatures only reached the 50s overnight. The increase in clouds thwarted maximum heating potential this afternoon. This combined with the return flow kept high temperatures below forecasted values in the upper 60s. Our next storm system is in genesis mode tonight, and this will keep the clouds increasing over the forecast area, and keep the onshore flow going as well, at least temporarily. Temperate conditions are expected as far as temperatures are concerned overnight. Only a modest cool down is expected for the same reasons cited above. The low temperature forecast overnight is a tricky one for parts of the forecast area with the impinging increase in clouds. Certainly most locations will be in the 50s, with the exception of the Northern half of the forecast area. Acadiana could see some upper 40s, but I believe most locations will be at the low end of the 50s. Mid 50s seem more logical for Lake Charles and Beaumont where the cloud cover is already prevalent. The tricky part comes in for areas that are still clear at the moment. Temperatures will have no problem dropping in these areas with light winds and clear skies, despite the presence of a return flow. However, as the clouds move Eastward overnight, temperatures could actually rise a few notches after midnight. Temperatures will be the hardest part of the forecast tonight. It is certain to remain dry overnight.
In 1971, the Carpenters said that "Rainy Days and Mondays" always get them down. What do Rainy Days and Friday do for you then? You can answer this hypothetically, but the point is that we will see rain before the day is out on Friday. A number of factors are coming together to produce this advertised rain event. Cyclogenesis is occurring over the Texas Coastal Plain between CRP and BRO (Corpus Christi and Brownsville). Showers have already sprung up along this axis. This developing low along with an advancing cold front, and embedded disturbances in the SW flow aloft rotating across the forecast will all work in tandem to initiate the rainfall. The forecast has changed slightly from last night. Not so much in the timing of the onset of the rain, but the amount and intensity. Often times, in an El Nino pattern the models have a hard time with these "Southern Stream" systems. That is exactly what appears to be happening here. The surface low will still track over the Gulf, but a more NE motion is expected as opposed to due East. What this means is that higher rain chances will be needed. Everything is still on track to move into the area during the latter part of the day Friday. A few showers will be possible across the area from about mid-afternoon on, but the widespread rain should be move into the area until the overnight hours. Clouds will continue to lower and thicken throughout the day Friday, and with the circulation around the Western Gulf low, winds will become Easterly as opposed to SE. Not much a diurnal range is expected with all the clouds and the stiff East winds. Expect afternoon highs to remain below normal only reaching the low to mid 60s. Winds will be another issue on Friday. The low over the Gulf will be strengthening as it slides ENE, and the strong high that has been controlling our weather this week remains in place over the SE U.S. The end result will be strong, gusty winds on the order of 15-25 mph with gusts to near 30 mph at times over land especially late Friday. Winds will be even stronger over the coastal waters with winds over 40 mph at times. Gale warnings are in effect for the offshore waters, so if you have interests out there keep this in mind. The strong Easterly flow will also result in the possibility of some coastal flooding, and the National Weather Service has posted a Coastal Flood Watch for this reason.
If that's not enough for you, there is still some discrepancy from the models as far as what time this rain will arrive. It is possible that it will be steadily raining by sunset across SE Texas and SW Louisiana with the exception of Acadiana and Central Louisiana. If you are attending any High School Playoff game in the area, it would be a good idea to bring your rain gear. However, most of our local teams that are still in the playoffs are playing out of town. Rain will be likely for just about the entire state with the advancing low in the Gulf, but the onset of the rain will be delayed until after midnight especially for SE Louisiana and into Northern Louisiana. It will be cloudy for all, and I certainly can't rule out a scattered shower or two over the aforementioned areas, but most of the other games will be dry. Good luck to all our local teams still in the playoffs including Barbe and St. Louis! Rainfall will become likely Friday night, and will be occasionally heavy at times. A few thunderstorms can't be ruled out as some added instability will be generated with the low tracking further North, and interaction with the Subtropical Jet Stream. For the most part though, just a general rain is expected. No severe weather is expected. This type of steady rain is referred to in meteorology as 'stratiform' precipitation. Any thunderstorms would occur with elevated convection. This is very common in the fall and winter months around these parts. Rainfall amounts will still be tempered from highest near the coast, to lowest for Central Louisiana. However, based on the current data and more consistency from the models I will raise the official expected rainfall amounts for the area. 2-3" is expected near the coast, 1-2" along the I-10 corridor, and around 1" for Central Louisiana.Rainfall chances will follow suit, with near maximum chances at the coast, and a bit more than half & half for Central Louisiana. The heaviest rain should fall between 10p.m. Friday night and 4a.m. Saturday morning. Isolated heavier amounts of up to 4" are possible mainly near the coast, and over SE Texas, closer to the surface low. These are significant rain amounts, but thankfully we've had a fairly dry November so far, no widespread flooding is expected. Flash Flood Watches are not in effect, and are not anticipated at this time. There are Flash Flood Watches in effect downstream towards the Houston area, where the rain is expected to be heavier. This is still forecast to be a relatively quick moving system, and while it may seem like the rain is never going to end overnight Friday, I assure you that Guns 'n' Roses was right when they said...."nothing lasts forever, even cold "November Rain". It will be a chilly rain to boot, with the forecast area remaining in the cool sector on the Northern side of the Gulf low. Temperatures will hover in the 50s for most of the night, perhaps cooling to the upper 40s by sunrise Saturday. Rainfall will begin to taper off towards sunrise on Saturday.
Conditions will slowly but surely improve as we get into the weekend. The low will be moving to off the coast of SE Louisiana Saturday morning, and it will take the heaviest rain with it. Moisture will linger for a time behind the low and trailing cold front. It is prudent to keep decent rain chances in the forecast through the Saturday morning period, though I still suspect there will hardly be any rain at all for the Lake Charles area after about mid-morning. Rain could linger until around noon in the Lafayette area. High pressure in the wake of the Gulf storm will begin building in by Saturday afternoon. Rapid clearing processes are expected, and the afternoon will really turn out to be quite nice. CAA will continue as the low departs and the high builds in. Saturday will be another day with a small diurnal range, and it will remain quite cool especially with clouds hanging tough for much of the daylight hours. I expect maximums to range from the mid to upper 50s. The strong winds will continue with a strong pressure differential across the area. That being said, Saturday will be a raw day with the cool temperatures. Winds will be out the North gusting over 20 mph at times, but as the high builds in over Central Texas during the afternoon, winds will slacken a bit by evening. All the rain should be gone in plenty of time before the McNeese game. I can't guarantee that skies will be clear just yet, but all indications are that the rain will be gone. Eventually, the clouds will go their "Separate Ways" as well. Saturday night will be another very cool night with lows dropping well down into the 40s. For the game, temperatures will be around 53 at kickoff and around 48 by the final tick. LSU is on the road in Oxford, MS. They'll have a risk for rain during the game, as the same system to affect us moves into the Magnolia State. Cool temperatures are expected with readings between 55 and 60. Good luck to both teams...Geaux Cowboys and Geaux Tigers!!! To round out the weekend, Sunday will be a "Beautiful Day". A nice area of high pressure will be in complete control just as the Saints should be of the Tampa Bay Bucs on Sunday afternoon. After a morning low in the lower 40s, expect afternoon highs to be very comfortable in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A light Northerly flow will be noted at the surface with the high oriented over East Texas.
A short work week starts out nicely on Monday with more splendid weather expected. Another cool morning is in the offing with lows in the mid to upper 40s. A modest warming trend is expected Monday afternoon as the controlling high slips East. Only a very subtle return flow is expected. Afternoon highs should exceed normal and reach the low to mid 70s. I've been talking all week about another scheduled to arrive around Tuesday of next week. This will still be the case, but the good news is that the models are more and more consistent with what if any kind of sensible weather we will receive with this front. The trend the last 24 hours has been drier and drier, and I will jump on this. I base this on forecast reasoning that there will be very short duration of a return flow ahead of this front, as the high in place for Sunday and Monday only slowly nudges Eastward. All of the instability and beneficial dynamics with this system look to bypass the area to the North.
A few clouds could move in ahead of the boundary, and the wind will shift back to offshore with the passage of the front. Aside from the aforementioned minor details, this front should come through without much ado. Temperatures on Tuesday will be modified for morning lows with readings back into the low to mid 50s, while afternoon highs drop back into the mid 60s on the other side of the front.
The end of the forecast period takes us up to Thanksgiving itself. Wednesday, the day before Thanksgiving, is often the busiest travel day of the year. There is good news for anyone who may be traveling on this day this year. High pressure will dominate the weather along the Gulf coast, so it should be a spectacular fall day. I have backed off on the idea of coldest weather so far this season for this period, as models have hinted at keeping the colder air bottled up to our North for a little while longer. However, it will be very nice with morning lows in the cool range well down in the 40s, while afternoon highs remain a tad bit below normal in the mid to upper 60s. Gobble, gobble...the first glance at the Thanksgiving forecast is looking like a "Thriller". Strong high pressure should reside right over the area. Temperatures will remain at or just below seasonable levels with a minimum down in the lower 40s while the maximum will be in the low to mid 60s. There's still plenty of time for the models to once again latch onto the idea of a stretch of unseasonably cold weather just in time for Thanksgiving, and I'll watch for that in the coming days. Looking at the rest of the Thanksgiving weekend, benign weather should continue for the majority of the long holiday weekend with models indicating the next chance of rain around Sunday the 29th. Of course, this is shear speculation, and anything beyond 7 days at this point is anyone's guess. Stay tuned!!!
Tropics: Quiet.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 51/62 48/56 42/68 0 40 80 40 0 0
LFT 48/64 49/57 41/67 0 30 80 60 0 0
BPT 54/65 47/59 43/69 0 50 90 30 0 0
AEX 45/63 46/54 38/66 0 20 70 50 0 0
POE 46/64 47/54 39/66 0 20 70 50 0 0
ARA 47/65 50/58 41/68 0 30 90 60 0 0
Tonight...Becoming Mostly Cloudy and Not as Cool. Low 51 Light East wind.
Friday...Mostly Cloudy and Windy with rain developing after 3p.m. High 62. East wind 15-20 mph and gusty.
Friday Night...Cloudy, Windy, and Cool with Rain and a few Thunderstorms possible. Rain heavy at times. Low 48. East wind 15-20 mph with gusts over 30 mph at times especially before midnight. Total rainfall amounts 1-2". East wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 80%.
Saturday...Cloudy, Cool, & Windy with a 40% chance of rain ending by 10a.m. Decreasing Cloudiness in the afternoon. High 56. NNW 15-20 mph and gusty.
Saturday Night...Clear and Cool. Low 42. Light North wind.
Sunday...Sunny. High 68. Light NE wind.
Drew's 7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity
Friday
11-20-09
Low: 51
High: 62
Rain: 40% PM...80% Overnight
Wind: E 15-20
Saturday
11-21-09
Low: 48
High: 56
Rain: 40% AM
Wind: NNW 15-20
Sunday
11-22-09
Low: 42
High: 68
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
Monday
11-23-09
Low: 48
High: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 5-10
Tuesday
11-24-09
Low: 53
High: 63
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE/NNW 15-20
Wednesday
11-25-09
Low: 46
High: 64
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
Thursday
Thanksgiving
11-26-09
Low: 41
High: 66
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
...Marine Forecast...
*Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6a.m. Friday.*
*Gale Warning in effect from 6a.m. Friday through Friday Night.*
Tonight...East winds 20 knots and gusty. Seas 4 to 6 feet. A chance of thunderstorms and isolated showers after midnight.
Friday...East winds 25 to 35 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet building to 6 to 9 feet in the afternoon. A chance of showers in the morning. Isolated thunderstorms. A chance of rain in the afternoon.
Friday Night...East winds 25 to 35 knots becoming northeast 20 to 30 knots after midnight. Seas 6 to 8 feet subsiding to 5 to 7 feet after midnight. Rain. Scattered thunderstorms after midnight.
Saturday...North winds 20 to 30 knots. Seas 8 feet. A chance of rain.
Saturday Night...Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 4 feet.
Sunday...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
...Tide Data..
Friday Tides @ Calcaiseu Pass:
Low: 10:26a.m. 10:26p.m.
High: 6:56p.m. 11:23p.m.
...Toledo Bend...
172.44'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Thursday, November 19, 2009
Low: 44
Normal Low: 49
Record Low: 30-1920
High: 69
Normal High: 69
Record High: 89-1915
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 0.11"
Normal Month to Date: 2.87"
Year to Date: 62.05"
Normal Year to Date: 50.85"
Record: 1.89"-1976
Sunrise Friday: 6:42a.m.
Sunset Friday: 5:14p.m.
Friday Hunting Times: 6:12a.m.-5:44p.m.
...Lunar Table...
First Quarter- Tuesday November 24
Full Moon- Wednesday December 2
Last Quarter- Wednesday December 9
New Moon- Wednesday December 16
Good night and God bless!
-DM-
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