SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion....Absolutely beautiful weather reigned supreme across the forecast area as the Gulf coast continues to be influenced by a large anticyclone. Very low humidity and pleasant temperatures continued as well. Morning lows ranged from the upper 40s to lower 50s across the area. A dry re-enforcing front moved through the forecast area this afternoon allowing for no more than an increase in wind. Moisture levels are exceptionally low, and this precluded the development of any clouds. Under clear skies and very light winds, temperatures are cooling off quite nicely as high pressure strengthens in the wake of the dry front. Not much change in temperatures from the last couple of nights is expected, but it will still be seasonably cool with minimums across the forecast area ranging from the upper 40s to lower 50s. It'll be a great night to venture out and look at the beautiful full moon. The only blemish tonight may come late tonight as some patchy fog develops with the clear and calm conditions and fairly moist grounds, but all of that will burn off very quickly once the sun comes up, and it will strictly be on a patchy basis.
More fantastic fall weather is slated for the rest of the work week and into the weekend as the dominant high pressure remains in control. Comfortable temperatures, and those representative of early November will prevail as well. The end of the week will be a bit cooler behind another re-enforcing front which should move through Wednesday night into Thursday. This will reduce lows to the mid to upper 40s for the forecast area for Friday morning, with highs dropping back to the upper 60s to lower 70s for Thursday and Friday. Light winds will continue with the dominating high in place on Wednesday, but a slight increase in Northerly winds will be noted for Thursday in the wake of the secondary re-enforcement. The continued dry weather is great news for our very saturated grounds, and the ongoing flooding situation on area rivers. I will have more on that in a moment.
As we get into the weekend, some changes are in the offing. Saturday will still be very nice as the large controlling high pressure nudges slowly Eastward. It should be another cool start with morning lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Afternoon highs will be a bit warmer, closer to what we've experienced the last couple of days with middle 70s expected. Great weather is expected for all football games this weekend including all the High School games Friday night...much different from last week. The Saturday games look good as well, and any outdoor activities you may have planned have a green light! Could it be Sunday before we see some clouds? All indications are yes! I do expect some cloud development by Sunday afternoon. This should occur as the controlling high shits NE, and the flow at the surface returns to onshore for the first time since last week. This will usher in some moist air from the Bay of Campeche. Another cold front will be advancing through the Rockies and Great Plains at this time. Model output suggests an area of low pressure will develop over the SW Gulf of Mexico. The jury is still out on how strong this low will be, but it will aid in increasing moisture by late Sunday. Sunday will remain dry, so another nice weekend is expected. Temperatures will moderate as the highs slides NE with upper 70s for highs by Sunday and morning lows moderating into the mid to upper 50s.
Next week's forecast is, pardon the pun, a bit cloudy. The aforementioned non-tropical Gulf low will be sending moisture northward, and the next front will be advancing to the SE. All of this will work in tandem to bring back rain chances to the forecast as I alluded to last night. It is far too early to be specific about how much rain we'll get with this system, but there is enough evidence to introduce rain chances at this time for Monday. Better chances come on Tuesday as the Gulf low makes its closest approach to SW Louisiana, and the front approaches. The advancing low could result in the cold front slowing down or stalling out for a time until the low moves inland to our East. The cold front may not push through until beyond this forecast period, with the rain chances continuing until that time. The temperature regime for the end of the forecast period is one that will be above normal with daytime highs approaching 80 while morning lows warm well up into the 60s. Long range projections indicate an active pattern, as is typical for November around here, with the first frost or freeze of the season possible towards the middle of the month.
Tropics: Quiet. A tropical wave over the SW Caribbean Sea off the coast of Panama has some potential to develop over the next couple of days. Not much movement is expected through Thursday, and showers and thunderstorms will continue across portions of Central America. A tropical depression could develop before the end of the week, but this is certainly no threat to SW Louisiana.
River Flooding: River Flood Warnings continue for many area rivers. Water will remain high or continue rising into the weekend. Here are the latest river stages and expected crests. More information can be obtained from the NWS Lake Charles web page.
Sabine River
Location Flood Stage Current Stage Crest
Burkeville 43' 43.8' Crested
Bon Wier 36' 30.0' 32.6' Wednesday PM
Deweyville 24' 25.4' 28' Saturday PM
Calcasieu River
Location Flood Stage Current Stage Crest
Glenmora 12' 15.4' Crested
Oakdale 12' 11.1' 14' Wednesday AM
Oberlin 13' 10.5' 17' Thursday PM
Kinder 16' 15.2' 16.5' Saturday PM
Old Town Bay 4' 4' Holding Steady
Mermentau River
Location Flood Stage Current Stage Crest
Mermentau 4' 4.1' 4.2' Wednesday PM
Red River
Location Flood Stage Current Stage Crest
Alexandria 32' 31.6' 32.5' Thursday PM
River Stages will be updated once again on Wednesday, and each day as necessary until the flooding is over.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 50/75 53/71 47/70 0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 51/76 53/72 46/69 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 53/76 54/73 49/71 0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 47/74 48/70 43/66 0 0 0 0 0 0
POE 48/74 49/70 44/67 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 52/76 54/72 48/70 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tonight...Clear. Low 50. Calm wind.
Wednesday...Sunny. High 75. NE wind 5-10 mph.
Wednesday Night...Clear. Low 53. NE wind 10 mph.
Thursday...Sunny. High 71. North wind 10 mph.
Thursday Night...Clear. Low 47. Calm wind.
Friday...Sunny. High 70. NE wind 5-10 mph.
Drew's 7 Day Forecast for Lake Charles & Vicinity
Wednesday
11-4-09
Low: 50
High: 75
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
Thursday
11-5-09
Low: 53
High: 71
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
Friday
11-6-09
Low: 47
High: 70
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
Saturday
11-7-09
Low: 48
High: 72
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
Sunday
11-8-09
Low: 55
High: 77
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 10-15
Monday
11-9-09
Low: 60
High: 79
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Tuesday
11-10-09
Low: 64
High: 81
Rain: 60%
Wind: SSE 15-20
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday Night...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 3 feet after midnight.
Thursday...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday Night...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet after midnight.
Friday...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet.
...Tide Data...
Wednesday Tides:
Low: 9:01a.m. 9:48p.m.
High: 4:51p.m. 11:39p.m.
Toledo Bend Pool Level:
173.42'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
Low: 51
Normal Low: 53
Record Low: 30-1966
High: 77
Normal High: 75
Record High: 89-1915
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 0.00"
Normal Month to Date: 0.41"
Year to Date: 61.94"
Normal Year to Date: 48.39"
Record: 1.05"-1934
Sunrise Wednesday: 6:29a.m.
Sunset Wednesday: 5:23p.m.
Good night and God bless!
-DM-
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