The forecast discussion is coming up momentarily. This will be my final forecast discussion before Thanksgiving. Depending on the weather situation over the weekend, I will resume updating the blog on Saturday or Sunday. First, I wanted to take time out to post my Thanksgiving message. Please scroll down afterward for the forecast!
What is Thanksgiving? Thanksgiving is a special time to gather with family, friends, and loved ones and give thanks for the many blessings we have in our lives, and enjoy tons of food and football. It all started back in 1621 when the Pilgrims celebrated the first Thanksgiving as a way of thanking God for a good harvest. Of course, we celebrate a bit differently here in modern times. Although Thanksgiving wasn't officially declared a national holiday by Congress until 1941, it was first declared as a day of thanksgiving by President Abraham Lincoln in October of 1863. Lincoln issued a proclamation from Washington, D.C. on October 3, 1863 in the midst of the Civil War. Here is the great manuscript from one of our greatest presidents.
"The year that is drawing toward its close has been filled with the blessings of fruitful fields and healthful skies. To these bounties, which are so constantly enjoyed that we are prone to forget the source from which they come, others have been added which are of so extraordinary a nature that they can not fail to penetrate and soften even the heart which is habitually insensible to the ever-watchful providence of Almighty God.
"In the midst of a civil war of unequaled magnitude and severity, which has sometimes seemed to foreign states to invite and to provoke their aggression, peace has been preserved with all nations, order has been maintained, the laws have been respected and obeyed, and harmony has prevailed everywhere, except in the theater of military conflict, while that theater has been greatly contracted by the advancing armies and navies of the Union.
"Needful diversions of wealth and of strength from the fields of peaceful industry to the national defense have not arrested the plow, the shuttle, or the ship; the ax has enlarged the borders of our settlements, and the mines, as well as the iron and coal as of our precious metals, have yielded even more abundantly than heretofore. Population has steadily increased notwithstanding the waste that has been made in the camp, the siege, and the battlefield, and the country, rejoicing in the consciousness of augmented strength and vigor, is permitted to expect continuance of years with large increase of freedom.
"No human counsel hath devised nor hath any mortal hand worked out these great things. They are the gracious gifts of the Most High God, who, while dealing with us in anger for our sins, hath nevertheless remembered mercy.
"It has seemed to me fit and proper that they should be solemnly, reverently, and gratefully acknowledged, as with one heart and one voice, by the whole American people. I do therefore invite my fellow-citizens in every part of the United States, and also those who are in foreign lands, to set apart and observe the last Thursday of November next as a day of thanksgiving and praise to our beneficent Father who dwelleth in the heavens. And I recommend to them that while offering up the ascriptions justly due to Him for such singular deliverances and blessings they do also, with humble penitence for our national perverseness and disobedience, commend to His tender care all those who have become widows, orphans, mourners, or sufferers in the lamentable civil strife in which we are unavoidably engaged, and fervently implore the imposition of the Almighty hand to heal the wounds of the nation and to restore it, as soon as may be consistent with the divine purpose, to the full enjoyment of peace, harmony, tranquility, and union.
"In testimony whereof I have hereunto set my hand and caused the seal of the United States to be affixed."
-Abraham Lincoln-
As we celebrate Thanksgiving 2009...I ask What are you thankful for? I know what I'm thankful for. First and foremost, I am thankful to God. God has blessed me with a great family and friends. The love and support they give me is the best anyone could hope for. He has blessed me many times over in my life. I have a great home, and enjoy great meals everyday. I am thankful to live in such a beautiful place, Lake Charles, LA. This is home, and will always be home. I am blessed with good health. I am so thankful that God has helped me achieve what I have achieve so far in my life, and pray that there is so much more yet to achieve. I am thankful that I am able to do what God has willed me to do. I am so blessed that He has provided for all my needs, and I know He always will. I am so thankful that He is always there no matter what, and He knows all of what is going on in my life, and I am thankful that I know if He leads me to it, He'll lead me through it. Without Him I would have nothing, I would be nothing. Thank you, God, you get all the glory!!!
I am thankful to my parents...the best parents anyone could ever have! They've been monumental in helping my get where I am today, and without their support I couldn't have done it. With all my many struggles through school, they never gave up on me. God truly blessed me with great parents! Thank you mom and dad!
I am thankful that I live in the greatest country in the world...the United States of America! I am thankful for the many freedoms that go along with that, and for such brave men and women in the United States Military that fight to keep our country free. They truly are our real heroes, and I thank all of you for your service to this country, past, present, and future. My thoughts and prayers are with all of you wherever you are around the world or here at home. God bless you and God bless America!
There are so many people who are less fortunate than myself and many of us out there. This, and every Thanksgiving, we remember those less fortunate than we are. We remember those who aren't able to enjoy all of the same freedoms that we do no matter what their situation is. This has been a tough year economically for many. Whether people have had a rough year economically, mentally, physically, etc. we pause to think about all of you. I pray that God watches over you, and provides for you in every way soon.
As we gather with our family and friends for a great meal and great time together this weekend, I hope that you will remember to pause and pray for those less fortunate, and to thank God for all He has blessed you with in your life. Also, as we head into the Christmas season, and all of the hustle and bustle that comes with it...lest you not forget the real and only Reason for the Season, Our Lord and Savior, Jesus Christ! Please keep Christ in Christmas!!!
On a lighter note, and in closing, thank all of you who have viewed the blog in the last 4 months. Thank you for coming here for all the weather information you need. I hope that you will continue to do so, and help me gain viewership by spreading the word. Weather is my dream and my passion, and I am so dedicated to this. Thank you for letting me share some weather knowledge with you! It is your viewership that helps me keep this blog as fresh as possible. Look for bigger and better things to come on this blog in the near future. God bless all of you, and may His many blessing rain down on you this holiday season, and forever. Thank you, God bless, and Happy Thanksgiving! Now onto the forecast discussion...
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...On this Thanksgiving Eve, it feels holidayish with very cool temperatures in place as high pressure in is complete control. It was an absolutely beautiful day across the forecast area today with nary a cloud to be found The nearest precipitation was over Florida, and across the Upper Mid West. It was a cool start with lows in the mid 40s this morning while afternoon highs were right on target with readings in the mid 60s. The humidity was exceptionally low with values in the 30-35% range. Winds are very light across the area, and CAA has temporarily ceased with the nearly calm winds with high pressure over North Texas. For tonight, radiative cooling will take shape, and it will be quite chilly across the entire forecast area. Areas of frost are likely in the coldest locations North of Highway 190 as temperatures reach the mid 30s. Patchy frost can't be ruled out in areas closer to I-10 as temperatures dip into the upper 30s including here in Lake Charles, but it shouldn't be as much of an issue in this area tonight. The coast will be quite cool as well by morning with overnight minimums there in the low to mid 40s.
Thanksgiving 2009 will offer terrific turkey weather. A re-enforcing dry cold front will move through, and it is currently en route tonight. It is moving through the Ozark Mountains of Northern Arkansas. It extends Northward into the Mid West wrapping into an Upper Level Low pushing towards Lake Michigan. This front will move through during the day Thanksgiving likely from mid-late morning across the forecast area, and you'll hardly even notice it. Winds will pick up behind it for a bit, but that'll be about the only weather associated with it. After the chilly morning start, a modest warm up is expected with highs a bit cooler than that of today. Maximums should be near 60 to the lower 60s as a CAA regime is re-established. The coldest night of the season so far is slated for Thanksgiving night into Friday morning for Black Friday. High pressure will reside very close to SW Louisiana, therefore, maximum radiational cooling will occur. The air will be dry enough that some of the coldest locations across the forecast area such as Oakdale and DeRidder could experience their first freeze of the season with temperatures settling into the lower 30s by sunrise Friday. However, while most of us will avoid freezing temperatures, most of us will see our first frost including Lake Charles and Lafayette. Minimums for the rest of the forecast area will be in the mid to upper 30s; quite chilly indeed. So, if you are heading out in the wee hours Friday morning for some black Friday shopping, bundle up. Of course, you could just do what I do, and stay in the warm bed!!!The only thing that could prevent us from getting as cold as forecast would be some high clouds streaming in from W to E via the Subtropical Jet Stream, but this is not forecast at this time as the anticyclone is very strong, and will likely shunt the clouds into the Gulf.
Friday will be another gorgeous day as the high remains over Louisiana for much of the day. After a cold start with the frost possibilities, temperatures will warm up nicely into the mid 60s...similar to today in all actuality! CAA processes will basically end for good Thursday night as winds decouple and go calm. A very light return flow will set up sometime Friday afternoon as the large high pushes ESE into the Gulf. Clear skies will prevail for Friday night, but a moderating trend will commence with the re-established onshore flow. Saturday mornig lows will not be near as cold, but still chilly, nonetheless. Many locations North of I-10 should experience another night in the 30s, while the rest of us will be a bit warmer with readings back into the 40s. The warming trend really firms up on Saturday with readings into the upper 60s to near 70 in some locales for afternoon highs. It should be another day of ample sunshine on Saturday despite the onshore flow. The junk is way out over the Gulf, so it'll take a while for it to get here. Some high clouds will be streaming in from time to time across the forecast area in advance of a maturing storm system coming out of the Rockies. This will be our next weather. Great weather is expected for the McNeese and LSU games on Saturday. McNeese hosts New Hampshire in the first round of the FCS Playoffs. Kickoff is at 2p.m. at Cowboy Stadium, and you can expect sunny skies with a temperature at kickoff of 67, while temperatures by the end of the game will be near 60...very comfortable. LSU plays a night game on Saturday, yes the game with Arkansas is on a Saturday this year after being on Friday for the last several years. They'll host the Razorbacks at 6p.m. in Tiger Stadium. The weather for the "Battle for the Boot" should be great. Clear skies with a kickoff temperature of 58 while temperatures by game's end will be near 50. Leave the umbrella in the car this time!
The period of Saturday night into Sunday will be dry as well, but a noticeable increase in clouds and low level moisture will be documented as the high slides further East in response to the maturing storm system to our West. Air mass modification will be in earnest for Saturday night with morning lows by sunrise Sunday ranging from the mid 40s to lower 50s.Winds will also be on the increase thanks to pressure differential between two systems. Deeper moisture moves into the forecast area late Sunday as a potent late fall storm system will begin to unleash its effects on the area. A deep trough and attendant cold front will be approaching the area at this time, and as the moist influx from the Gulf continues rain chances will return to the forecast late Sunday. It is still a situation where timing is an issue, but that is a decision that will be deferred until the second half...err after Thanksgiving. For now, the official forecast will introduce rain chances for Sunday night, keeping the daylight hours of Sunday dry. This is another important travel day, so we'll see how it pans out in later forecasts. The moderating trend continues Sunday with highs around normal to slightly above. Expect a high near 70. A SW flow aloft develops in response to energy from the Subtropical Jet Stream which will be energized by the developing Great Plains system. This will cause periodic perturbations (disturbances) to move from SW to NE across the forecast area ahead of the approaching sharp cold front. It is too early to prognosticate the prospects of any severe weather potential, but with a quick turnaround ahead of and behind this system, it is possible with such a large amount of energy needing to be displaced. There are a lot of factors that go in to determining whether or not we'll have a severe threat, and a key factor is where an expectant low pressure will track out ahead of the cold front. The jury is up for deliberation on where this low will track, but I do suspect that Western Gulf cyclogenesis will occur once again. Each model run varies to some degree, so again I'll defer this decision to the second half.
Rain chances find their insertion into the forecast Sunday night, and increase from there on out through Monday. Rain could be heavy at times with or without the presence of a severe weather threat. I will hold off until later on specificity of rainfall amounts. I am confident enough at this point that the heaviest rain and higher chances for rain will come on Monday as the surface low-cold front conglomeration moves through. Mild temperatures will continue until this time with Monday morning minimums in the mid 50s. My best guess right now is that the strong front will push through Monday late morning through early afternoon. Not much warming is expected Monday with the clouds and rain and expected arrival of the cold front. It will ultimately be a tricky temperature forecast for Monday depending on the movement and timing of said front. For now, I will forecast highs around 60, before falling back into the 50s as strong CAA is established behind the front thwarting any more warming potential. A significant change has occurred in the latter portions of the forecast compared to last night's forecast package. There is more run to run consistency from the models that the rain will not end once the front moves through. The pattern favors an overrunning situation beginning Monday night extending into Wednesday. This will keep clouds and rain in the forecast, with the potential for a secondary Gulf low on Tuesday, likely producing another round of heavy rain with added instability. Cold air will be working into the forecast at this same time, so while morning temperatures may not be as cold as first thought for Tuesday/Wednesday, afternoon temperatures will be colder. The strong CAA will likely keep temperatures in the 40s for lows and highs on Tuesday and Wednesday, so it will quite raw with the rain. The wind will add insult to injury with stiff NE winds with the secondary low in the Gulf. This solution seems reasonable in an El Nino year. This will be a very common weather pattern this winter. So, it looks like we'll get into it right on cue for the start of meteorological winter on Tuesday. If the current projections are right, then we may not clear out until around Thursday of next week behind the secondary low and trailing cold front which will keep us on the cold side through the end of the work week into the first weekend of December. Stay in touch this weekend for the break down on the system at the beginning of the week!
Tropics: Turn out the lights, the party is over!
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 39/61 36/64 41/67 0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 39/60 35/63 39/66 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 41/63 38/65 43/68 0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 37/59 33/62 37/65 0 0 0 0 0 0
POE 38/59 34/62 37/66 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 40/62 36/63 40/66 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tonight...Clear and Cold with Patchy Frost North of I-10. Low 39. Calm wind.
Thanksgiving Day...Sunny. High 61. NNW wind 10-15 mph.
Thanksgiving Night...Clear and Cold w/ Areas of Frost after Midnight with the exception of the Coastal Parishes and Counties. Low 36. Calm wind.
Friday...Sunny. High 64. Light North winds in the morning, becoming Light & Variable in the afternoon.
Friday Night...Clear and Not as Cold. Low 41. Light South wind.
Saturday...Sunny. High 67. South wind 5-10 mph.
Drew's 7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity
Thursday
11-26-09
Thanksgiving
Low: 39
High: 61
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
W.C.: 35-40 A.M.
Friday
11-27-09
Low: 36
High: 64
Rain: 0%
Wind: L & V 5-10
W.C.: 30-35 A.M.
Saturday
11-28-09
Low: 41
High: 67
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 5-10
Sunday
11-29-09
Low: 54
High: 72
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Monday
11-30-09
Low: 55
High: 60
Rain: 80%
Wind: SSE/NNW 15-25
Tuesday
12-1-09
Low: 44
High: 48
Rain: 60%
Wind: NNE 15-20
W.C.: 30s
Wednesday
12-2-09
Low: 43
High: 47
Rain: 60%
Wind: NNE 15-25
W.C.: 30s
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 feet.
Thursday...North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Thursday Night...North winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet after midnight.
Friday...North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Friday Night...North winds around 5 knots becoming east after midnight. Seas 1 foot.
Saturday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Isolated showers.
...Tide Data...
Thursday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:
Low: 5:29a.m. 3:45p.m.
High: 10:10a.m. 9:27p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
172.14'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
Low: 46
Normal Low: 47
Record Low: 27-1950
High: 67
Normal High: 68
Record High: 87-1913
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 1.92"
Normal Month to Date: 3.83"
Year to Date: 63.86"
Normal Year to Date: 51.81"
Record: 10.00"-1895
Sunrise Thursday: 6:47a.m.
Sunset Thursday: 5:13p.m.
Thursday Hunting Times: 6:17a.m.-5:43p.m.
...Lunar Table....
Full Moon- Wednesday December 2
Last Quarter- Wednesday December 9
New Moon- Wednesday December 16
First Quarter- Thursday December 24 (Christmas Eve)
Happy Thanksgiving!
Good night and God bless!
-DM-
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