SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The much advertised cold front has pushed through the majority of the forecast area tonight. No rain was noted ahead of the boundary, as all of the shower and thunderstorm activity remained over the Gulf where beneficial instability existed thanks to the Subtropical Jet Stream. This activity put the kibosh on inflow from the Gulf, which would have aided in the development of shower and thunderstorm activity over land areas across the forecast area. The shower and thunderstorm activity over the Gulf has been suppressed further to the S and E tonight as the front works into the coastal waters. High clouds from the Subtropical Jet are streaming over the area at this time, but all of the low clouds have since vacated the region as drier air takes over. The high clouds will depart overnight as a strong anticyclonic flow becomes established for the Northern Gulf Coast in the wake of the front. It remained dry for the day despite overcast conditions throughout the day. Some fog was noted across much of the area early this morning, but this fog burned off by mid-morning as the usual atmospheric mixing processes took place once the sun came up. Temperatures were very much seasonable across the forecast area with generally a light E to SE flow in place.
Clearing will occur overnight as the front continues to progress SE. It currently runs along a Franklin to Baton Rouge to McComb, MS to between Jackson and Meridian, MS line. As the front slides further and further to the SE; the dry air filtering into the region will deepen, and the skies will clear after midnight. The back edge of the high clouds is back to our West along a line from near Houston to Shreveport. The entire forecast area will be clear by morning. CAA processes will be in place overnight with temperatures cooling from the current readings in the lower 60s into the mid to upper 40s by sunrise Wednesday. A Northerly breeze is denoted, and this will continue on the order of 5-10 mph through the overnight. Wednesday will be a dandy day with nothing but sunshine and seasonable temperatures with afternoon highs in the mid 60s. It is sure to be great weather for traveling for the many of you who have travel plans for the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. Take your time...be careful, and hopefully I-10 will be cleared up. There is virtually no change in the forecast philosophy since the last forecast package.
Wednesday will begin an extended period of dry, cool, perfect fall weather. Thanksgiving 2009 will be outstanding! A re-enforcing cold front will move through during the day on Thanksgiving Day. This front will work through with minuscule amounts of moisture under a dry NW flow aloft. A chilly start is in the offing on Thanksgiving morning with lows ranging from the mid 30s towards Alexandria to the lower 40s along the coast. Upper 30s to near 40 seem logical for the I-10 corridor. High temperatures will be a touch cooler on Thanksgiving Day compared to Wednesday. This is in part due to the re-enforcement. Expect a maximum in the lower to middle 60s. Some frost is possible mainly for the Northern portion of the forecast area first thing Thanksgiving morning. A better chance of frost comes along Friday morning for a larger area. The first frost of the season is certainly possible down to the I-10 corridor from Beaumont to Lafayette. A very light Northerly flow will persist overnight Thursday as high pressure dominates to the n^th degree. This will allow for nearly perfect radiational cooling conditions. As a result, expect overnight lows to drop into the mid 30s for the Northern half of the forecast area, and upper 30s down to the I-10 corridor. The coastal sections should avoid any frost potential with readings hanging in the lower 40s. Either way, Friday will be a bit cold, so take notice if you are going to be out and about early on Black Friday. I'll be in my warm bed, but that's just me! At least with a cold start, it'll feel like Christmas. Friday will be a beautiful day with extremely dry air in place. Afternoon highs should be a smidge below normal for late November ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s across the area. Friday night offers another possibility for a frost in the same areas with similar temperatures in the mid 30s to lower 40s across the forecast area with high pressure virtually overhead.
Changes begin on the backside of Thanksgiving weekend. Not so much on Saturday, as it should be another beautiful day after the cold start. Afternoon highs will be in the mid 60s, back close to seasonable. A return flow off the Gulf commences Saturday afternoon as the large Canadian anticyclone slides Eastward. This will occur in advance of our next storm system which will be taking shape on the Lee side of the Rockies. Air mass modification will begin Saturday. The weather still looks great for the weekend ball games with pleasant temperatures. Clouds will begin to increase Saturday night with a noticeable increase in low-level moisture ahead of the advancing trough. Overnight lows will be closer to normal for the end of November. Expect minimums heading into Sunday morning to be in the upper 40s to lower 50s. The overnight period of Saturday should be dry with just the increase in clouds noted. On Sunday, the changes continue in earnest. You could call it a pretty quick turnaround from the superb weather we'll be enjoying over Thanksgiving. Clouds will lower and thicken throughout the day Sunday, and Southerly winds will increase. Cyclogenesis to some degree will occur during the day, but the exact location is still uncertain. I'll fine tune this after Thanksgiving as the event gets much closer. Much of the day should remain dry, but rain chances enter the forecast Sunday mid-late afternoon as the system approaches. Today, models suggest a faster system with the associated trough and attendant cold front pushing into the region very late Sunday night into the wee morning hours on Monday. While rain is nearly a certainly for this time, it remains to be seen if there will be severe weather or not. It certainly is possible especially if a surface low tracks from SW to NE across the forecast area over land as opposed to over the Gulf like last weekend. Again, this is a matter that will be honed in on more specifically after Thanksgiving. The bottom line at this point is that rain is likely during the late Sunday-Monday time frame. I will also defer my forecast for total expected rain amounts until later forecasts. Sunday highs should exceed by near 70. Mild weather will prevail until the front gets here ETA TBD.
Rain and storms continue for Monday morning as the deep trough and surface low pull away. Rain will linger much of the day Monday, but we'll transition from the rain and thunderstorms, to more of a light rain during the day as we get into a strong CAA situation in the wake of the trough. The air mass behind this front looks like it will be the coldest air of the season. I am sticking to my guns with the temperature forecast for Monday. Highs should occur in the morning, and will be somewhere in the 50s before falling back into the 40s during the day with the vigorous NNW flow in place behind the front. Rain will taper off Monday afternoon as drier air filters into all levels of the atmosphere. Winds will be gusty behind the front as well with an intense pressure gradient force in place. Skies clear Monday night, and the coldest temperatures so far this season with temperatures well down into the 30s by Tuesday morning. The first freeze of the season is possible behind this system, but whether or not that occurs on Tuesday or Wednesday (2 December) remains to be seen. For now, I will not forecast it for Tuesday morning since I expect winds to remain up a bit with high pressure still to our West, but it will certainly be cold on Tuesday. Wind chills will likely be in the 20s first thing Tuesday morning, and even with sunny skies expected highs won't be much above 50...remaining well below seasonable values as we start meteorological winter and the last month of the year and the decade...what??? The bottom line here is that it'll feel a heck of a lot like winter to start December whether we experience our first freeze of the season or not. Stay tuned!
Tropics: Cold turkey!
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 45/65 39/62 37/64 0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 46/65 40/61 36/63 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 44/65 41/62 38/64 0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 42/64 37/59 34/61 0 0 0 0 0 0
POE 43/64 38/60 35/61 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 48/66 40/62 38/63 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tonight...Decreasing Cloudiness and Cooler. Low 45. North wind 10-15 mph.
Wednesday...Sunny. High 65. North wind 10-15 mph.
Wednesday Night...Clear and Cold with Patchy Frost. Low 39. Light North wind.
Thanksgiving Day...Sunny. High 62. North wind 10-15 mph.
Thursday Night...Clear and Cold with Areas of Frost after midnight. Low 37. Calm wind.
Friday...Sunny. High 64. NE wind 5-10 mph.
Drew's 7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity
Wednesday
11-25-09
Low: 45
High: 65
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10-15
Thursday
11-26-09
Thanksgiving Day
Low: 39
High: 62
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10-15
Friday
11-27-09
Low: 37
High: 64
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
Saturday
11-28-09
Low: 43
High: 67
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE/SE 10-15
Sunday
11-29-09
High: 70
Rain: 30% PM...80% Overnight
Wind: SSE 15-20
Monday
11-30-09
Low: 50
High: 53
Falling into the 40s in the Afternoon
Rain: 80% Before Daybreak...60% During the Day
Wind: NNW 20-25
Tuesday
12-1-09
Cold
Low: 34
High: 50
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 15-20
W.C.: 25-30 A.M.
...Marine Forecast...
*Small Craft Advisory through 9a.m. Wednesday.*
Wednesday...North winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night...North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday...North winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday Night...North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet after midnight.
Friday...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
...Tide Data...
Wednesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 5:59a.m. 2:29p.m.
High: 7:58a.m. 9:19p.m.
...Toledo Bend...
172.20'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
Low: 49
Normal Low: 48
Record Low: 28-1911
High: 68
Normal High: 68
Record High: 90-1915
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 1.92"
Normal Month to Date: 3.67"
Year to Date: 63.86"
Normal Year to Date: 51.65"
Record: 2.41"-1986
Sunrise Wednesday: 6:47a.m.
Sunset Wednesday: 5:13p.m.
Wednesday Hunting Times: 6:17a.m.-5:43p.m.
...Lunar Table...
First Quarter- Tonight November 24
Full Moon- Wednesday December 2
Last Quarter- Wednesday December 9
New Moon- Wednesday December 16
Good night and God bless!
Happy Thanksgiving!
-DM-
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