SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...What a miserable day! Rain and Cold..most people would probably agree, it's one of the worst kinds of weather. The persistent light to moderate and occasionally heavy rainfall throughout the day has all been in the wake of the strong cold front which moved through this morning. Rainfall haven't been as serious as models depicted, thank God, however, there's still been some flooding problems throughout the day mainly across Western and Northern sections of the forecast area with some road closures across Beauregard and Vernon Parishes. Temperatures have dropped into the 50s area wide, as the front has exited the Eastern extremity of the forecast area. A very sharp temperature gradient existed across the forecast area earlier today as the front took its own sweet time reaching Acadiana. There was a 20 degree temperature difference between the Lake Charles and Lafayette reporting site. The front has accelerated somewhat this afternoon, and is currently moving across SE Louisiana nearing New Orleans up to Slidell, and extending further Northward into Eastern Mississippi and Western Alabama. The front will continue its Eastward progression overnight.
The problem for us today has been the lagging upper level feature associated with this system as well as deep Pacific moisture streaming in via the Subtropical Jet Stream from Old Mexico. With the lagging upper level low, a layer of warm air exists aloft. This overrunning has kept the persistent rain and embedded thunderstorms across the area today as an instability max hung back over the area in the wake of the front. The flooding threat will decrease this evening as the rain finally ends slowly but surely. It will take some time for the rains to end in Acadiana, but all rain should be over with by midnight. Timing for the end of the rain here in the Lake Charles area should be between 6 and 7p.m. or so....just in time for all the High School Football games. At present, the back edge of the rain runs along a SW-NE oriented line from near Johnson Bayou to Vinton to Fort Polk to Monroe. While the rain isn't welcome by any means, we certainly dodged the bullet on the severe weather side of things. Severe weather occurred ahead of the front last night in the Shreveport-Bossier City area, and there has been some across portions of Mississippi and Alabama today. Conditions will improve markedly overnight.
As the rain ends this evening, the overcast conditions will persist, but the clearing line is in Central Texas, and will be encroaching on SE Texas before too long. As the upper level kicker finally gets the extra push it needs to pull away, the clearing line will progress Eastward overnight bringing clear skies into the forecast area overnight. The clouds may still be present after sunrise over Acadiana, but clouds will clear out across the entire area by mid-morning Saturday. Underneath, the low clouds this evening some patchy light rain or drizzle is possible, but widespread rain is not expected. Along with some rain gear, a jacket or sweater will be needed if you are going out to a game tonight as CAA continues. Temperatures will drop into the mid 40s by morning, with temperatures remaining in the 50s throughout the ball games.
The only issue for the rest of the forecast period after tonight will be river flooding which I will address over the weekend. High pressure takes control of the weather beginning Saturday for Halloween. This will give us our 3rd straight beautiful weekend in a row. A CAA regime will continue with a dry NW flow established at the surface, which is exactly what we need to dry out the saturated grounds With high pressure building in, winds will slacken from where they were today, generally 10 mph or less. An awesome day is in store to close out October 2009 with high temperatures in the mid 60s to around 70. It will be quite cool for all Halloween activities on Saturday night with temperatures in the 60s early but falling into the 50s quickly once the sun goes down. Great weather is in store for all area college games as well. McNeese plays on the road against Nicholls State in Thibodaux with a 1p.m. kickoff and skies should become sunny during the game with a temperature around 66 at kickoff and 64 by game's end. LSU hosts in-state rival Tulane at 7p.m. in Baton Rouge. Skies should be clear with a kickoff temperature of 60, falling to 53 by game's end.
You'll like the rest of the forecast period as well. Sunday through next Friday offers no rain chances...that's right, no rain whatsoever, so we'll definitely have some much needed drying time. It'll be a good time to wash the car too, pick a day. A welcomed pattern shift is established across the Gulf coast in the wake of today's front, and a series of re-enforcing high pressures will be the dominant weather feature through next week helping to keep us on the dry side. Cool nights and pleasant days are on tap. Low temperatures will range from the mid 40s to lower 50s each morning with a dry front scheduled to arrive at mid-week, knocking temperatures back a few degrees after a modest warm up at the beginning of the week. High temperatures will be fairly uniform each day as well with upper 60s to mid 70s for maximums through Friday. Long range indications are that next week may offer a continuation of the pleasant November weather, with no sign of rain chances on the horizon for at least 10 days...certainly a welcome change!
Tropics: Quiet, and this will remain the case as we head into the final month of hurricane season 2009. The strengthening El Nino will continue to be the story.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 47/68 45/70 45/71 30 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 50/67 45/69 45/70 70 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 49/69 46/71 46/71 0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 45/66 43/68 44/70 40 0 0 0 0 0
POE 46/66 43/68 44/70 20 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 51/69 47/70 46/71 80 0 0 0 0 0
*Flash Flood Watch in effect until 7p.m.*
Tonight...Cloudy and Cool with a 30% chance of rain early, ending with Decreasing Cloudiness overnight. Low 47. NNW wind 10 mph.
Saturday...Sunny. High 68. North wind 5-10 mph.
Saturday Night...Clear and Cool. Low 45. Light North wind.
Sunday...Sunny. High 70. North wind 5 mph.
Sunday Night...Clear and Cool. Low 45. Calm wind.
Monday...Sunny. High 71. NE wind 5-10 mph.
Drew's 7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity
Saturday
10-31-09
Halloween
Low: 47
High: 68
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
Sunday
11-1-09
All Saint's Day
Daylight Savings Time Ends...Fall Back
Low: 45
High: 70
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5
Monday
11-2-09
Low: 45
High: 71
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
Tuesday
11-3-09
Low: 51
High: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE/NE 5-10
Wednesday
11-4-09
Low: 48
High: 70
Rain: 0%
Wind: NW 10-15
Thursday
11-5-09
Low: 50
High: 72
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
Friday
11-6-09
Low: 53
High: 75
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
...Marine Forecast...
*Small Craft Advisory until 7p.m.*
Tonight...North winds 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight.. Seas 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet after midnight. A chance of showers in the evening.
Saturday...North winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the afternoon.
Saturday Night...North winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet building to 1 to 3 feet after midnight.
Sunday...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the afternoon.
Sunday Night...Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Monday...North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
...Tide Data...
Saturday Tides:
Low: 7:48a.m. 8:24p.m.
High: 12:14a.m. 2:13p.m.
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Low: 52
Normal Low: 54
Record Low: 30-1910
High: 79
Normal High: 76
Record High: 89-1922
Rainfall
Today: 2.21"
Month to Date: 14.86"
Normal Month to Date: 3.81"
Year to Date: 61.84"
Normal Year to Date: 47.85"
Record: 3.40"-1907
Sunrise Saturday: 7:26a.m.
Sunset Saturday: 6:26p.m.
Happy Halloween & Have a Good Weekend!!!
God Bless!
-DM-
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