SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Our next event is on track. It was a mostly dry day across the forecast area today, but overcast conditions covered the entire area as the deep tropical moisture and Western Gulf low continues to trek Northward towards the forecast area. At the same time, our next cold front is in transit across Texas, and the other player on the field is Hurricane Ida, a formidable category 2 storm. Ida is currently making good headway toward the North in the Southern Gulf of Mexico tonight. Ida will not have any direct impact on our area, but will significantly impact parts of the Gulf coast late tomorrow through Tuesday. All the latest on Ida is coming back in the tropical section. The cloud cover and return flow kept temperatures around seasonable levels today with maximums in the mid 70s. Not much cooling has occurred since sunset, and temperatures will only fall to the low to mid 60s tonight with extensive cloud cover and expanding rain shield. Rain is beginning to develop around Lake Charles as of 10p.m., and there are 2 areas of widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms at this time. One such area is back near Houston while an another area of rain is just to our SE and extending upward into parts of Acadiana. All of this will continue spreading inland overnight, and be widespread across the forecast area by morning.
Monday will be wet and windy. Heavy rain will occur at times, and the best chances of rain will be on the Louisiana side of the forecast area, and mainly along and South of a line from Alexandria to Toledo Bend. Acadiana stands the chance of seeing the highest rainfall totals with this event as the weak low moves inland over SW Louisiana, and they'll also be on the extreme edge of the wrap around moisture from Hurricane Ida. Average rainfall amounts will be 1-3" across the entire area, while higher amounts of 3-5" are possible closer to the coast and over Acadiana. Due to the expected rain, and the recent heavy rains the National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch for much of the area. The exception to this is Beauregard and Vernon Parishes in SW Louisiana, and SE Texas. River flooding is still ongoing on the Calcasieu and Sabine Rivers, and it is certainly possible that the expectant rainfall will exacerbate the flooding situation, but we'll have to see how this all plays out after the event is over with. I stress once more, than Monday's rain is not affiliated with Hurricane Ida. It is the secondary, and much weaker low in the Western Gulf that will produce this rain event out ahead of the advancing cold front. The upper level support for the front will allow for it to make steady progress through Texas, and it will be moving into the forecast area Monday evening into Monday night. The frontal passage will mark an end to the rain. Wind will be another issue on Monday as the pressure gradient tightens in response to the approach of Hurricnae Ida, and the front itself. Winds will be strongest in the offshore waters, and near the coast, but inland areas will experience 20-30 mph winds especially along and south of I-10. A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for this reason. The strong winds mainly from an Easterly direction will cause tidal backup along the coast, and a Coastal Flooding situation is expected across the entire coastline of SW Louisiana. Minor coastal flooding is expected through Monday especially near times of high tide. No severe weather is expected anywhere in the forecast area, in fact very little in the way of thunder and lightning will occur with this system. Severe weather this week will be confined to areas along and East of the center of Ida, where some isolated tornadoes will be possible Tuesday and Wednesday as the low disintegrates over the SE U.S. This is all eventful enough isn't it? Ida will be the main weather story, but as stated it will not impact the forecast area directly. Ida will be swiftly moving through the Gulf on Monday, and begin weakening as it feels the effects of wind shear and cooler water over the Gulf. It will be losing its tropical characteristics and transitioning to an extratropical system by Tuesday when it is nearing the Northern Gulf coast near Pensacola, FL. It will brush by the tip of SE Louisiana overnight Monday into early Tuesday. This will make for rough conditions across the Gulf through Tuesday. I will have more on Ida's fate in the tropical section. Ida or not, Monday is going to be a wet day. Temperatures won't move much with highs in the mid 70s. Winds will shift with the front overnight Monday, and this will begin to usher in a very refreshing air mass to take us through the rest of the work week.
As Ida turns Eastward and runs parallel to the Gulf coast and becomes extratropical (merges with trough) our weather will greatly improve with the front penetrating deep into the Gulf. Winds will be about the only issue on Tuesday, and it remains windy for one more day on the back side of Ida. Expect North winds about 15-20 mph gradually subsiding during the day. A few clouds could be around to start the day, but overall it will be a sunny, beautiful day with most of the clouds clearing out overnight Monday shortly after the rain ends. Cooler and drier air will filter in on a CAA regime with morning lows on Tuesday in the mid 50s, while highs reach the lower 70s. High pressure dominates the mid-week period for Wednesday-Thursday, and this will bring us some great weather. Veteran's Day looks like a great day on Wednesday. Cool mornings are on tap with lows down into the 40s, while highs will be between the mid 60s to around 70. Very comfortable days are in store with low humidity values expected. The high should be very close to right overhead on Thursday morning, and this should be the coolest morning of the week with 40s for all areas. Great weather continues to round out the work week on Friday, but some subtle changes will take shape as a progressive pattern continues.
A return flow commences on Friday as the dominating high pushes East with another cold front poised to move our way over the weekend. Moderating temperatures are expected beginning Friday with highs in the mid 70s, and some clouds will move into the area Friday night, but a dry forecast is maintained. The next front is forecast to arrive on Saturday, and while low-level moisture will be sufficient enough for rainfall, the dynamics associated with this front needed to produce significant rainfall appear to be lacking at this time. Therefore, only a slight chance of rain is expected for the Saturday into Sunday period. There are timing issues with the front right now, but best guess right now is that it will cross the area late Saturday. There is much speculation as to whether or not we'll clear out behind this front. Some indications are that overrunning will develop behind the front, especially just beyond the forecast period around next Monday. For now, for Sunday I'll keep the clouds in the forecast as well as a slight chance of rain with cooler conditions taking over once again. We have plenty of time to revise the weekend forecast; let's get this Manic Monday Mess outta here first.
Tropics: Hurricane Ida is a clear reminder to us that it is still Hurricane season for a few more weeks yet. Ida will not impact SW Louisiana directly. As of 10p.m. not much change has occurred in the forecast philosophy has occurred. Ida's strength is holding steady near 105 mph-category 2 tonight. Weakening will ensue on Monday as Ida moves deeper into the Gulf, and into cooler waters and a much more hostile environment. There is a great deal of wind shear present over the Gulf ahead of an approaching trough. There's also an area of dry air over the Gulf to the West of Ida between her circulation, and the Western Gulf low. The storm will likely begin to ingest this dry air on Monday aiding in the weakening process. The official forecast still takes Ida just E of the Mouth of the Mississippi River Monday evening as a category 1 hurricane. The transition from a tropical entity to extratropical entity will be ongoing at this time, but it is a race against time to see if Ida will completely lose its tropical characteristics or makes landfall as a hurricane on Tuesday near Pensacola, FL. The weather won't be all the different for the Northern Gulf coast if Ida is still a tropical system or it is extratropical by the time it makes landfall Tuesday. For SE Louisiana, tropical storm force conditions are expected beginning Monday afternoon with winds of 40-60 mph mainly S and E of New Orleans, but tropical storm force winds could be felt as far North as the Northshore area. Extreme SE Louisiana has the best chance of seeing any hurricane force winds across the state, and this would occur briefly Monday night as the storm makes its closest approach. The worst of the weather will be somewhere between SE Mississippi and the Florida Panhandle, all hinging on where the eventual landfall occurs Tuesday. After landfall, the extratropical low of Ida will parallel the Gulf coast, and bring rain and wind to a large portion of the SE U.S. through mid-week. Storm surge flooding is likely to the right of the center of circulation, and the most likely area for this will be from around Biloxi, MS to Mexico Beach, FL. Heavy rainfall is expected of 5-10" is expected for the Northern Gulf coast through Tuesday. Some evacuations have been called for in coastal areas, but mainly on a voluntary basis. Offshore oil rigs are being evacuated tonight in advance of Ida. At 9p.m., some changes to the watches and warnings issued early Sunday were made. For a complete list of watches and warnings, see my post from earlier today. Here is the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
Hurricane Ida
Monday, November 9, 2009 10p.m.
Latitude: 24.4 N
Longitude: 87.5 W
This is about 340 miles SSE of the Mouth of the Mississippi River.
Winds: 105 mph-Category 2 w/ higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected to begin Monday, but Ida is expected to remain a hurricane as it nears the Northern Gulf coast Tuesday. Ida remains a very compact storm with hurricane force winds extending outward 35 miles from the center, while tropical storm force winds extend outward 200 miles from the center.
Movement: NNW at 12 mph. A Northward turn along with an acceleration in forward speed is expected Monday with a turn to the NE on Tuesday as Ida begins to morph into the approaching frontal boundary. Ida will be nearing the Northern Gulf either late Monday night or early Tuesday.
Pressure: 29.15" or 987 mb.
Watches/Warnings: A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the Northern Gulf Coast from Pascagoula, MS to Indian Pass, FL. A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch is in effect from Grand Isle, LA to Pascagoula, MS and this included New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Indian Pass, FL to Aucilla River, FL. A plethora of Inland Tropical Storm and Hurricane Wind Warnings are in effect in the NWS Slidell, NWS Mobile, and NWS Tallahassee forecast areas.
For more information from these areas here are some links:
NWS Slidell
NWS Mobile
NWS Tallahassee
NWS Birmingham
I am also including links to TV stations in the hurricane area, so you can see how they are covering the storm, and how people are preparing for Ida in this area.
New Orleans Area
WWL-TV Channel 4- New Orleans
WDSU- Channel 6 New Orleans
WGNO- Channel 26- New Orleans
WVUE- Channel 8- New Orleans
Biloxi-Gulfport-Pascagoula
WLOX- Biloxi
Mobile-Pensacola
Channel 15-Mobile
Channel 5-Mobile
Channel 3-Pensacola
Channel 10-Mobile
Birmingham, AL
ABC 33/40
ABC 33/40 WeatherBlog
Here's the latest graphics set for Hurricane Ida...included: forecast track, satellite imagery, and forecast models.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecasts:
LCH 65/70 57/70 48/68 80 90 60 0 0 0
LFT 65/70 58/71 47/67 80 90 60 0 0 0
BPT 67/72 55/72 50/71 70 60 30 0 0 0
AEX 62/68 53/67 45/66 60 70 50 0 0 0
POE 62/69 54/68 46/67 70 70 50 0 0 0
ARA 66/71 60/71 49/69 80 90 70 0 0 0
*Flood Watch in effect through Monday evening.*
*Lake Wind Advisory in effect from 6 a.m. Monday until Midnight Tuesday.*
Tonight....Cloudy with rain becoming widespread towards morning. Rain heavy at times. Low 65. ENE wind 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 80%.
Monday...Cloudy and Windy with Rain Likely. Rain heavy at times. High 70. East wind 15-25 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 90%.
Monday Night...Cloudy and Windy with Rain Ending. Turning Cooler. Low 57. East wind 15-20 mph becoming NNW at 15-20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 60% until midnight.
Tuesday...Becoming Sunny and Windy. High 70. North wind 15-20 mph and gusty.
Tuesday Night...Clear. Low 48. North wind 10 mph.
Veteran's Day...Sunny. High 68. North wind 5-10 mph.
Drew's 7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity
Monday
11-9-09
Low: 65
High: 70
Rain: 90%
Wind: E 15-25
Tuesday
11-10-09
Low: 57
High: 70
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 15-20
Wednesday
11-11-09
Veteran's Day
Low: 48
High: 68
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
Thursday
11-12-09
Low: 45
High: 70
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
Friday
11-13-09
Low: 47
High: 74
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 5-10
Saturday
11-14-09
Low: 54
High: 77
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Sunday
11-15-09
Low: 55
High: 70
Rain: 20%
Wind: NNW 10-15
...Marine...
*Small Craft Advisory in effect.*
Synopsis...STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY AS HURRICANE IDA MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING AND WINDS AND SEAS STAYING HIGH. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT 20 TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO CAMERON...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
Tonight...Northeast winds 20 knots. Seas 5 to 6 feet building to 7 to 9 feet after midnight. Showers likely and isolated thunderstorms.
Monday...Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 8 to 10 feet. Showers likely in the morning. Isolated thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Monday Night...North winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 7 to 9 feet. A chance of showers.
Tuesday...North winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 7 to 9 feet.
Tuesday Night...North winds 20 knots. Seas 6 to 7 feet.
Wednesday...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet.
...Tide Data...
Monday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:
Low: 1:59p.m.
High: 9:33p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
172.62'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Sunday, November 8, 2009
Low: 62
Normal Low: 52
Record Low: 32-1991
High: 74
Normal High: 73
Record High: 88-1916
Rainfall
Today: Trace
Month to Date: Trace
Normal Month to Date: 1.14"
Year to Date: 61.94"
Normal Year to Date: 49.12"
Record: 3.14"-1944
Sunrise Monday: 6:33a.m.
Sunset Monday: 5:20p.m.
Hunting Times: 6:03a.m.-5:50p.m.
Have a great week, and stay in touch for the latest on Hurricane Ida!
Good night and God bless!
-DM-
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