SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...This forecast is one that would make David Bowie proud...remember when he sang about "Changes"? That is exactly what we have in the offing this week, as a roller coaster weather pattern is established for the 2nd half of November. The changes have begun today in the wake of our latest cold front. It was a fast mover, and as quick as it entered the area, it exited. A thin line of showers was present along the boundary which moved into the NW portion of the forecast area before sunrise, into SE Texas pushing through Beaumont before 9a.m., Lake Charles just after 10a.m., and into Acadiana between noon and 1pm. It cleared the entire forecast area by 3p.m. Rainfall amounts were generally less than 1/4" for the entire area. Warm and humid air in place with ample sunshine early this morning allowed for temperatures to warm up into the mid 70s in the Lake Charles area and near 80 for Lafayette. Temperatures began falling as the front moved through. Winds increased out of the NNW over 20 mph at times in the wake of the front as strong CAA took over displacing the warm and humid air mass. Despite the small rain amounts, the clouds hung tough for much of the day with a Cold Air Stratus Deck behind the front. Temperatures fell from the 70s ahead of the front well down into the 60s before sunset this evening. Skies have cleared across portions of the area, and the rest of the area will clear overnight as high pressure builds in behind the departing front, and on the back side of a stubborn upper level low parked over the Ozarks. CAA will continue in earnest overnight with temperatures plummeting amid the clear skies and strong winds. This air mass spilling into the region is by far the coldest thus far this Fall. Morning lows will range from the upper 30s for Toledo Bend Country across to Alexandria, and lower 40s for most locations. As usual the warmest readings will be on the coast where mid 40s should suffice. With the strong winds, we'll have to mention a wind chill for the first time all season. Wind chill readings will be near freezing across the North, while down here along I-10 we'll see wind chill readings in the 35-40 range first thing Tuesday morning...brrr!!! Maybe it's time for a nice fire, and certainly a big gumbo!!! One other note for tonight...There's a meteor shower! The annual Leonid meteor shower peaks tonight. The peak time is early morning on Tuesday about 3-4a.m. If this piques your interest, go outside then and look toward the East. It is possible to see about 30-40 an hour. While that's a fairly nice show, Asia will be the lucky ones and have the possibility to see 300-400 an hour. Skies will be absolutely clear, so no problem seeing the meteors, though you will want to get away from any lights.
High pressure will dominate the forecast for Tuesday through Thursday. Sunny skies and cool temperatures will prevail during this time. On Tuesday, an absolutely gorgeous Fall day is expected with crisp, clear, and cool conditions. Even with the crystal clear skies, temperatures will struggle to reach a maximum of 60. CAA will continue as strong NNW winds continue at least for part of the day. The winds will die down in the afternoon as high pressure noses into the area over Texas. The high around 60 will be below normal, quite a switch from the above normal temperatures we had over the weekend when the maximums were near 80. The coldest night of the season is in store Tuesday night, and models are latching onto the this idea. They've been trending colder with each model run the last couple of days. High pressure should be oriented right over SW Louisiana Tuesday night through Wednesday morning allowing for winds to completely decouple. As a result of this under clear skies, maximum radiational cooling is expected. Temperatures by sunrise Wednesday will range from the mid 30s north of Highway 190, to the upper 30s along I-10 to lower 40s coast. Calm winds and clear skies will allow for some frost to form for the first time all season across the Northern half of the forecast area. It should not a widespread frost, but frost nonetheless. Frost should not be an issue for the Southern half of the forecast area, unless it appears that we will get even colder and see mid 30s all the way down to the I-10 corridor. This remains to be seen, but oft times in this kind of pattern the models underestimate the strength of the cold air, so we'll see. For now, mid 30s to low 40s seems logical.
Air mass modification will begin during the day Wednesday as the strong high slides Eastward. Afternoon highs will have no problem reaching the 60s, and I'll call for mid 60s for the maximum. The orientation of the high by Wednesday afternoon will favor an East wind. Another very cool night is in store on Wednesday night/Thursday morning, but not quite as cold as Tuesday night in response to air mass modification. Overnight lows should range from the low to mid 40s...similar to tonight. A very light return flow will commence overnight Wednesday as the high slips into Dixie. The clear skies will continue as low-level moisture will remain almost non-existent with all the deep moisture way out into the Gulf. Thursday will be another beautiful day, but air mass modification continues. The return flow will become more pronounced ahead of another developing storm system to our West. Temperatures will rebound from the mid 40s to lower 70s for afternoon highs. Some clouds could dot the landscape by day's end as the influx of low-level moisture increases ahead of the next storm system due in Friday. Clouds and low-level moisture increase Thursday night with much warmer overnight lows in the lower 50s.
The progressive pattern that is becoming established this week is very typical of November, and when this pattern is present we typically see a front about every 3-4 days. This is what will occur this week. This sets us up for our next front on Friday. Enough of a moisture return will occur ahead of this trough and the associated front. Our next chance of rain will occur at this time. Best prognostication right now is that it will be another fast mover with rain most likely to occur during the morning into early afternoon. There is enough evidence from models that a more significant rain event will occur this time around. That being said, there is also much uncertainty at this time as to how much rain we'll get with this system. Some forecast models also suggest Western Gulf cyclogenesis as the approaching trough feeds into some energy from the Subtropical Jet. If this were to occur, then this would increase the amount and coverage of rainfall, and also likely the duration as well as it would likely cause the cold front to hold up for a bit over Texas. This solution is discounted for now, due to the inconsistencies. A forecast favoring a fast frontal passage makes sense, and this is the way I'll lean for now. Rainfall amounts could be around one inch, as it does appear that we'll see more rain this time around. Rainfall should end across the forecast area Friday afternoon, with a fresh cool air mass taking over just in time for the weekend. Friday's forecast is very important as the second round of the High School Football Playoffs are slated. Many teams have to travel somewhere across the state. For games in our area, the rain should be over, but there will still be a chance for some rain at least early on East of the Mississippi River. This forecast will be fine tuned as necessary through the week. Temperatures for Friday could do a similar number to that of day, where the warmest readings occur early in the day with falling temperatures in the afternoon. Highs should reach the low to mid 70s. The air mass behind this front will not quite as cool as the current one.
The timing of the front Friday sets it up beautifully for another nice weekend across the forecast area. High pressure will build in and dominate for both Saturday and Sunday. Pleasant temperatures are on tap again with lows in the 40s and 50s once again each day while afternoon highs range from the upper 60s to lower 70s...very close to normal for mid-November. The fast pattern will continue beyond this point with a return flow becoming established by Sunday afternoon ahead of yet another storm system developing over the Rockies. This system will affect our area beyond the weekend with the fringe effects moving into the forecast area on Monday. Clouds and humidity will increase in earnest on Monday with significant modification in temperatures as well. Morning lows for Monday should be well into the 50s, while highs reach the mid to upper 70s. Some warm air advection showers are possible Monday ahead of the main front. A chance of rain is denoted for day 7, but the best chances of rain with this system will come just beyond the scope of this forecast period next Tuesday. It is far too early to say if we'll have a severe weather threat with this system, but some indications are that we will. Whatever materializes, it sure appears that we'll see heavy rain and thunderstorms at this time. Stay tuned! Behind this system, the overall pattern will favor colder and drier just in time for Thanksgiving. It's too early to be specific about temperatures for Thanksgiving itself, but cooler than average to average is the trend at the moment. Depending on how the progressive pattern evolves, there could be some rain for Thanksgiving as well, but there's no clear cut solution at this time.
Tropics: Quiet.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 42/60 39/65 44/70 0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 42/59 38/65 43/70 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 43/61 40/66 45/72 0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 38/57 35/63 39/68 0 0 0 0 0 0
POE 38/58 35/64 40/69 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 43/62 40/65 44/71 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tonight...Clear, Windy, and Much Cooler. Low 42. NNW wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Wind chill readings 35-40 by sunrise.
Tuesday...Sunny, Breezy, and Cool. High 60. NNW wind 10-15 mph.
Tuesday Night...Clear and Cold with Patchy Frost. Low 39. Light North wind.
Wednesday...Sunny and Warmer. High 65. NE wind 5-10 mph.
Wednesday Night...Clear and Not as Cold. Low 44. East wind 5 mph.
Thursday...Sunny. High 70. SE wind 5-10 mph.
Drew's 7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity
Tuesday
11-17-09
Low: 42
High: 60
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
W.C.: 35-40 A.M.
Wednesday
11-18-09
Low: 39
High: 65
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
W.C.: 35-40 A.M.
Thursday
11-19-09
Low: 44
High: 70
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 5-10
Friday
11-20-09
Low: 54
High: 71
Rain: 60%
Wind: SSE/NNW 15-20
Saturday
11-21-09
Low: 48
High: 64
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
Sunday
11-22-09
Low: 43
High: 67
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE/SE 5-10
Monday
11-23-09
Low: 51
High: 73
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10-15
...Marine Forecast...
*Small Craft Advisory Tuesday.*
Tonight...Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday...Northwest winds 20 knots and gusty diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday Night...Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet after midnight.
Wednesday...West winds around 5 knots becoming southwest in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet.
Wednesday Night...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet after midnight.
Thursday...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet. A slight chance of showers.
...Tide Data...
Tuesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:
Low: 8:32a.m.
High: 4:13p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
172.42'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Monday, November 16, 2009
Low: 48
Normal Low: 49
Record Low: 23-1916
High: 75
Normal High: 70
Record High: 88-1913
Rainfall
Today: 0.06"
Month to Date: 0.11"
Normal Month to Date: 2 .39"
Year to Date: 62.05"
Normal Year to Date: 50.37"
Record: 5.40"-1918
Sunrise Tuesday: 6:40a.m.
Sunset Tuesday: 5:16p.m.
Hunting Times: 6:10a.m.-5:46p.m.
...Lunar Table...
New Moon- Tonight November 16
First Quarter- Tuesday November 24
Full Moon- Wednesday December 2
Last Quarter- Wednesday December 9
Good night and God bless!
-DM-
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