SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Persistence is the word of the day. Beautiful weather persisted across the forecast area as a large area of high pressure remained in the driver's seat. It was a pleasantly warm and dry November day across the area with high temperatures ranging from 75 to 80. With the dry air in place, temperatures have cooled off quite nicely under clear skies tonight. Expect overnight minimums to be very similar to last night in the lower 50s. As has been the case, the past few nights, some areas of patchy fog may develop toward morning, but only briefly, and certainly nothing very dense in nature at all. The next in a series of dry re-enforcement cold fronts is currently en route tonight, and will be moving through the forecast area on Thursday. With the dry NW flow in place, moisture remains very limited, and it will hardly be discernible once it comes through aside from an increase in wind. Afternoon highs on Thursday will be a bit cooler than those of today with an expected maximum in the lower 70s. No clouds are expected once again on Thursday as humidity values remain very low. The dry front on Thursday will keep this streak of nice weather alive through Friday. Temperatures will be a bit cooler on Friday morning with readings for most locales in the mid to upper 40s. It'll be a very pleasant afternoon Friday with highs near the 70 degree mark.
The weekend will offer some changes. Saturday should be another near perfect day as high pressure remains entrenched, and only slowly moves to our East. Temperatures should be about seasonable for early November for this period. Dry weather will persist into Saturday night, which continues to be good news for any outdoor activities. Friday officially makes one week without any rain across the area, which is very good news with the ongoing river flooding, which I'll have the latest on momentarily. A warming and humidifying trend begins on Saturday night as the controlling high lifts NE into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. The resultant low-level flow will respond by shifting from offshore to onshore. Gulf moisture will begin to increase at this time. The increase in moisture will become quite discernible Saturday night into Sunday as moisture returns with a vengeance in response to a strengthening storm system coming out of the Rockies. Temperature modification will result in temperatures warming from the low 50s on Saturday morning to the upper 50s on Sunday morning. On Sunday, expect increasing cloud cover throughout the day. Much of the day will remain dry, but as the storm system approaches from the West chances of rain will enter the forecast late Sunday. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 70s with the added cloud cover. Coolest readings will be along and south of I-10 in response to the cooling effect of the Gulf waters. Rain will become likely overnight Sunday.
All indications are that another significant rainfall event will occur across the forecast area beginning Sunday night through Monday. Several ingredients will come together to produce said rainfall event. The aforementioned cold front, deep tropical moisture from newly formed Tropical Storm Ida, and another area of enhanced moisture in the Bay of Campeche. I will discuss Ida in the tropical section shortly, but I should note here, that it is far too early to be specific how much rain we will get with the upcoming storm system, and how much of an effect Ida will have on the Gulf coast. Ida will move into Central America Thursday, and this will put the kibosh on strengthening, however, re-emergence is forecast off the coast of Belize and Yucatan. Restrengthening may occur at this point, but it is also possible that Ida will completely dissipate inland over the mountainous terrain of Central America. On the current projection, Ida will certainly aid in increasing moisture across the area, and increasing instability across the area on Monday. There is much question about the future track and strength of Ida. Another aside here, there has never been a landafalling tropical system in Louisiana in the month of November, and I don't expect that to be the case with Ida either. Most November tropical systems get caught up in the SW flow over the Gulf, and head to the NE towards Florida; this is very possible with Ida. Regardless, of whether or not Ida fizzles out over Central America or re-emerges as a remnant low or something a bit stronger and moves into the Gulf early next week, deep tropical moisture will increase. All of the previously mentioned items will likely result in widespread shower and thunderstorm activity on Monday. As the event gets closer, I will get more specific about rainfall amounts and any prospects of severe weather. Mild temperatures are expected with morning lows around 60, and highs in the mid 70s.
Beyond Monday, the forecast uncertainties are running rampant. There is much consistency on frontal passage late Monday into early Tuesday which should end the heavy rain threat, however, the debate is whether or not we will clear out and completely end rain chances on Tuesday. Some forecast models hint at overrunning behind the Monday front, and if this occurs this would keep clouds and showers in the forecast, though not as potentially heavy as Monday. Cooler weather will move in behind the front as a low-level NW flow returns, but the winds aloft will remain out of the SW. This type of pattern is very typical in the fall and winter months around here. A second, stronger front will be coming down the pipe, and should arrive quickly on the heels of the first front likely around Wednesday. A chance of showers will be maintained through the end of the forecast period for this reason. Temperatures will cool off even further on day 7 as CAA deepens. Beyond the forecast period, an active pattern will continue with a series of cold front expected through mid-month. Each one could be a bit stronger than the previous one, resulting in temperatures getting progressively cooler behind each one. The current projections still show the possibility of our first frost or freeze of the season at or just beyond mid-month.
Tropics: The 9th named storm of the season, Tropical Storm Ida, has formed in the SW Caribbean Sea off the coast of Central America. Ida is very well organized tonight, and it has strengthened significantly today, and as of 10p.m. Ida has top winds of 60 mph. Tropical Storm Warnings and Hurricane Watches have been issued for the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Ida will be moving onshore over Nicaragua overnight. This will quell development, and weakening will commence early Thursday. The nations of Central America are very mountainous, and heavy rain, flash flooding, and mudslides are expected to occur over that region. The impact of land and the mountains will greatly disrupt the circulation of Ida, and there is a chance that Ida is going to move slow enough that the system will completely dissipate over Central America, and never re-emerge into the Western Caribbean. It is November, and conditions are typically more hostile for tropical systems, but the Caribbean is a climatologically favored area for tropical activity during the season's final month. Ida's satellite representation is quite impressive, and in my opinion in the 3rd most legit storm of the season behind Bill and Fred. Ida is currently moving on a NW heading only slowly at 7 mph, and a Northward turn is expected once over land. Ida is being steered by a ridge to the NE and a trough to the NW. The expected Northward turn will occur as the ridge to the NE builds Northward. There is much uncertainty in Ida's future strength and track. It is very possible that Ida will not survive its journey across Central America. The current forecast indicates that it will, but this could change depending on what happens over the next couple of days while Ida spins down over Central America. The official forecast calls for re-strengthening once Ida emerges into the Western Caribbean Saturday, and the NHC places Ida near the NE tip of the Yucatan Peninsula as a tropical storm on Monday night. Ida should not pose a direct threat to the Western Gulf of Mexico, as a strong trough will be approaching at the same time that Ida will be nearing the tip of Yucatan. This would likely deflect Ida either to the NE towards Florida, or shunt it back to the SW, and fizzle out towards the middle of next week. The Western Gulf coast is not a climatologically favored area for tropical systems in the month of November due to the advancement of troughs across the contiguous 48 states. The official advisory for Ida, as well as the official track, satellite imagery, and model output for Ida follows.
Tropical Storm Ida
10p.m. Wednesday, November 4, 2009
Latitude: 12.5 N
Longitude: 83.1 W
This position is about 60 miles NE of Bluefields, Nicaragua.
Winds: 65 mph w/ higher gusts- Some additional strengthening is possible before landfall, and Ida could approach hurricane strength before making landfall later tonight in Nicaragua. Tropical storm force winds extend out 50 miles from the center of circulation.
Movement: NW at 7 mph. A gradual turn to the NNW with a decrease in forward speed is expected on Thursday.
Pressure: 29.38" or 995 mb.
Elsewhere...The tropics are quiet, and no other tropical storm formation is expected through the weekend.
River Flooding: The flooding situation continues to be significant along the Sabine River, while on the Calcasieu, Red, and Mermentau Rivers minor flooding continues in some locales, while a few have dropped below flood stage. Here are the latest flood stages from the NWS Lake Charles.
Sabine River
Location Flood Stage Current Stage Crest
Burkeville 30' 36.3' Crested
Deweyville 24' 26.1' 28.1' Saturday PM
Neches River
Location Flood Stage Current Stage Crest
Town Bluff 64' 65.2' 65.2' Monday AM
Calcasieu River
Location Flood Stage Current Stage Crest
Glenmora 12' 14.2' Crested
Oakdale 12' 12' Crested
Oberlin 13' 13.5' 17' Friday AM
Kinder 16' 14.8' 16.5' Saturday AM
Old Town Bay 4' 4.2' Remaining near FS through the weekend
Red River
Location Flood Stage Current Stage Crest
Alexandria 32' 32.1' 32.2' Thursday PM
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 53/74 48/71 51/74 0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 52/74 47/71 50/75 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 55/75 49/72 52/76 0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 49/73 44/69 46/72 0 0 0 0 0 0
POE 50/73 45/70 47/73 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 54/75 50/71 51/75 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tonight...Clear. Low 53. Light NE wind.
Thursday...Sunny. High 74. NE wind 10-15 mph.
Thursday Night...Clear. Low 48. Light NE wind.
Friday...Sunny. High 71. NE wind 10 mph.
Friday Night...Clear. Low 51. Light NE wind.
Saturday...Sunny. High 74. East wind 5-10 mph.
Drew's 7 Day Forecast for Lake Charles & Vicinity
Thursday
11-5-09
Low: 53
High: 74
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 10-15
Friday
11-6-09
Low: 48
High: 71
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
Saturday
11-7-09
Low: 51
High: 74
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 5-10
Sunday
11-8-09
Low: 57
High: 73
Rain: 30% PM
Wind: SE 10-15
Monday
11-9-09
Low: 61
High: 77
Rain: 70%
Wind: SSE/SSW 15-20
Tuesday
11-10-09
Low: 57
High: 68
Rain: 40%
Wind: NNW/NNE 10-15
Wednesday
11-11-09
Veteran's Day
Low: 53
High: 63
Rain: 40%
Wind: NNW 15-20
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday Night...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 3 feet after midnight.
Friday...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 feet.
Friday Night...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Saturday...East winds 15 to 25 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
...Tide Data...
Thursday Tides:
Low: 9:48a.m. 10:12p.m.
High: 5:57p.m.
Toledo Bend Pool Level:
173.42'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Wednesday, November 4, 2009
Low: 50
Normal Low: 53
Record Low: 27-1912
High: 80
Normal High: 74
Record High: 93-1915
Rainfall:
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 0.00"
Normal Month to Date: 0.55"
Year to Date: 61.94"
Normal Year to Date: 4 8.53"
Record: 2.38"-1954
Sunrise Thursday: 6:30a.m.
Sunset Thursday: 5:22p.m.
Good night and God bless!
-DM-
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