Be sure to scroll down to see my report on the wet October, and the tornado outbreak across North Louisiana last week. Now onto the discussion....
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Perfection! It is strictly a temperature forecast for the upcoming week. The welcomed pattern change occurred in the wake of last Friday's front, and we're reaping the benefits of this now. The weather has been absolutely perfect since Saturday as high pressure has dominated. Temperatures have been seasonably cool with lows in the 40s and 50s, and highs in the 60s and 70s. This will continue for the foreseeable future. This is great news as we need to dry out in a big way. The only weather issue this week will be the ongoing river flooding mainly along the Sabine River. For tonight, the controlling high pressure will remain right overhead and as a result calm winds, clear skies and cool temperatures are expected. Lows will range from the mid 40s towards Fort Polk and Alexandria to the mid 50s along the coast.
On Tuesday, another awesome day is forecast. Some subtle changes will occur as a re-enforcement front moves through the area during the day under the controlling NW flow aloft. This front will bring no sensible weather with it, and just keep the dry air in place. The only noticeable difference will be the winds. Winds will increase to around 10 mph during the afternoon in the wake of the fast moving front. High temperatures will once again by fairly uniform with low to mid 70s. Temperatures for Tuesday night will be very similar to that of tonight, though in the wake of the front temperatures could be a degree or two cooler at most locations.
Wednesday and Thursday offer more of the same as controlling high pressure continues to dominate. Comfortable afternoons are expected to continue with highs in the lower 70s. Very light winds are expected as well as ridging processes intensify. Another re-enforcing cold front will move through sometime on Thursday resulting in an increase in North winds again. This front will be a bit stronger than its predecessor on Tuesday, so overnight minimums will drop back a few degrees for Thursday night. 40s seem likely in nearly all areas once again. The great weather will continue through the upcoming weekend making it 4 in a row. Slight moderation in temperatures will occur, but values should remain around normal through Sunday.
At the end of the forecast period, more significant changes may occur, but to what degree remains to be seen. Another cold front will be approaching at this time. Confidence is high enough to ascertain a return flow likely by late Sunday. Humidity levels will increase at this time as the front approaches. The uncertainty lies in the prospects of rain. Some models do indicate enough moisture availability for some rain chances on Monday. However, some models also hint at another wild card in the mix at this time. Some indications are that there will be a surface low forming in the Southern Gulf. There is an area of showers and thunderstorms in the Bay of Campeche at this time, along the old front which came through on Friday. It is possible for this area to persist, and some sort of cyclogenesis to occur over the weekend. This would be a non-tropical low, but may result in an increase in moisture nonetheless. The low would move to the NE if it does indeed form. It is far too early to speculate how much development, if any, will occur. Anything goes at this point, when dealing with this type situation. For now, I will keep rain chances out of the forecast for Monday, but if model trends continue they will be inserted in later forecasts. An increase in clouds is indicated, as well as warmer temperatures for that time frame. Enjoy the nice weather this week!
Tropics: Quiet.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 49/75 48/75 51/72 0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 48/75 49/75 50/71 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 51/76 50/75 52/73 0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 45/75 48/74 47/69 0 0 0 0 0 0
POE 46/75 49/75 48/70 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 50/75 50/75 51/72 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tonight...Clear. Low 49. Calm wind
Tuesday...Sunny. High 75. NE wind 10-15 mph.
Tuesday Night..Clear. Low 48. NE wind 10 mph.
Wednesday...Sunny. High 75. North wind 10 mph.
Wednesday Night...Clear. Low 51. NE wind 5-10 mph.
Thursday...Sunny. High 72. North wind 10-15 mph.
Drew's 7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity
Tuesday
11-3-09
Low: 49
High: 75
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 10-15
Wednesday
11-4-09
Low: 48
High: 75
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 10
Thursday
11-5-09
Low: 51
High: 72
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 10-15
Friday
11-6-09
Low: 46
High: 67
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
Saturday
11-7-09
Low: 48
High: 71
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNE 5-10
Sunday
11-8-09
Low: 52
High: 75
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE/SE 5-10
Monday
11-9-09
Low: 58
High: 77
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 10-15
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 feet.
Tuesday Night...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 feet.
Wednesday...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday Night...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 3 feet after midnight.
Thursday...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
...Tide Data..
Tuesday Tides- Calcasieu Pass
Low: 8:19a.m. 9:22p.m.
High: 3:52a.m. 11:21p.m.
Toledo Bend: 173.22
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Monday, November 2, 2009
Low: 50
Normal Low: 53
Record Low: 33-1966
High: 75
Normal High: 75
Record High: 90-1915
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 0.00"
Normal Month to Date: 0.27"
Year to Date: 61.94"
Normal Year to Date: 48.25"
Record: 2.77"-1995
Sunrise Tuesday: 6:29a.m.
Sunset Tuesday: 5:24p.m.
Good night and God bless!
-DM-
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