SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The much advertised coldest morning of the season unfolded last night. Morning lows ranged from the mid 30s in the coldest locations to the mid 40s at the coast, with lower 40s prevalent here along I-10. Patchy frost occurred in rural areas North of Hwy. 190. This was the first frost of the season. It was a beautiful day with comfortable humidity values, and temperatures a category or two below seasonable norms with readings in the mid 60s. There was not a cloud to be found as high pressure was in complete control. A very light onshore flow will develop overnight as the high orients itself over Mississippi and Alabama. As a result of the placement of the strong anticyclone, low temperatures will be just a tad warmer than that of last night, therefore, another chilly night is in store...the way it should be in November. The overnight lows will still be below seasonal norms by approximately 8-12 degrees or so. Low to mid 40s seem feasible for much of the forecast area with the exception of the coast where lows will be near 50, and the Northern portion of the forecast area in the usual colder locations like DeRidder & Oakdale up to Alexandria and Fort Polk some 30s are likely in this area again, with some patchy frost possible once again. With the subtle return flow established, some patchy fog is possible towards morning, mainly the ground fog variety. Overall, expect benign weather for the overnight period.
The benign weather will continue for Thursday as well. The anticyclonic flow will continue to strengthen the onshore flow across the area, but ridging processes will still envelop the area. Another fantastic fall day is in order with maximums a bit warmer than today reaching the normal threshold around 70. A fast warm-up is expected underneath full sunshine, and the light WAA pattern in place. While it will be another benign weather day across the forecast area, elements will be coming together to produce our next rain maker due in late Friday. Clouds ahead of this system will begin to develop over SE Texas Thursday afternoon as the low stratus deck develops over an area of deeper Gulf moisture streaming into Texas further away from the dominate high. These clouds will be poised to move into SW Louisiana by Thursday night as our next system gets organized. The return flow becomes more pronounced overnight with an increase in clouds. Overnight lows for Thursday will be near 50. It should remain dry for the Thursday night period.
Friday will begin dry, but a developing low pressure over the Lone Star State and associated cold front on Thursday will move into the forecast area Friday afternoon. This will bring rain chances back into the forecast. How much rain is still a bit uncertain at this point. It really all depends on the eventual track of the surface low. Most model data has been more consistent today in the idea of the heavier rain remaining offshore, with the surface low tracking off the Central Texas Coast moving Eastward across the Gulf. A Southern tracking low would limit the amount of rainfall across the forecast area, confining heavy rain and thunderstorms to the coastal waters, and leaving more of a steady, stratiform rain over land. Rain chances would be tempered from South to North with the highest chance near the coast, and lowest chance well inland. The heaviest rain axis would also be established along the coast line, with amounts being phased downward further inland. There is still a possibility of the low moving further North right across the forecast area, and this scenario would create a heavy rain and thunderstorm event with much higher rain chances and amounts, but this solution is shunted for now, with more consistency in the Southern tracking low. The timing of the rainfall hasn't changed all that much since last night. As mentioned previously, most of Friday should be dry with just overcast conditions. I wouldn't rule out some sunshine Friday morning, and I'll actually put that in the official forecast as the ridge tries to hang on across the area. Moderating temperatures will continue for Friday with afternoon highs around normal once again....right near 70. It is possible that readings will be a bit cooler than that of Thursday because of the increase in clouds. The return flow will become more Easterly because of the low in the Gulf, so this will really inhibit a continuation of deep moist air from the Gulf. Based on the current forecast philosophy, I will lower rain chances for Friday night, but also retain a chance into early Saturday. The majority of the rain across the forecast area should be Friday night, and the timing of this is bad for any High School Football Playoff games in the area. Games in other portions of the state, will not have as much of an issue with rain. The Northern half of the state will be very limited to how much rain they get because of the Gulf low, and all areas East of the Atchafalaya River shouldn't have to deal with more than a few light showers, sprinkles, or drizzle before midnight. The widespread rain will overspread the remainder of South Louisiana after midnight. There are timing uncertainties with the onset of precipitation, but it is prudent to include some chance of rain for Friday afternoon, but likely not until after 3p.m. On the other side of the ledger, there's also differences in when the rain will come to an end, but I'll dissect that in a moment. A tight pressure gradient will develop with the low in the Gulf, and the strong high over Dixie participating in a squeeze play. Winds will be over 20 mph at times Friday into Saturday, with even stronger conditions over the coastal waters with high seas and waves, and winds likely into tropical storm range, even though this is not a tropical system in any way, shape, or form. Rainfall amounts for this event should be 1-2" near the coast, around 1" along I-10, and between .5" and 1" for Central Louisiana with higher amounts of coastal sections of Texas, and our offshore waters.
The low will make good progress moving through the Gulf, as the upper level low will result in this system being a fast mover. This will also help to limit rainfall totals across the area. Widespread rain ends early Saturday as the front pushes through. I certainly can't rule out some overrunning rain continuing for a time behind the front into early Saturday, but conditions will certainly be improving as we get into the weekend. Temperatures will cool slightly behind the front as a fresh CAA regime commences. Saturday morning lows should be in the mid to upper 40s for the forecast area. The Easterly fetch will shift to Northerly as the front blows by. I will retain a chance of rain until about mid-morning Saturday before drier air moves in above the surface. A renewed area of high pressure will be building in behind the departing storm system. Conditions improve on Saturday as the system pulls further East, with skies clearing during the day. Saturday afternoon should turn out to be quite beautiful before all is said and done. It will be very fall-like with highs struggling to reach the 60s as the CAA intensifies. The timing of this couldn't be more favorable with the McNeese game taking place Saturday night at 6p.m. Temperatures for the final regular season game against Central Arkansas at Cowboy Stadium should be perfect for football. Expect a kickoff temperature around 55 at 6p.m., quickly falling into the 40s during the second half. So, you'll certainly want a jacket or coat if you are attending, but no worries for rain as skies will be clear for the entire area by then. As for LSU...the Tigers are on the road this weekend in Oxford, MS for their annual game with SEC West foe and long-time rival Ole Miss. There will be a chance of showers with overcast skies for the 2:30p.m. game. Temperatures will likely be a bit on the cool side with a high near 60, but quickly falling back into the 50s during the game. Saturday night promises to be another crisp, clear, and cool one as the renewed ridging processes put a stranglehold on SW Louisiana. Winds will slacken later in the day Saturday as the high moves into SE Texas. This will set the stage for a maximum radiational cooling night. Overnight lows will drop well into the 40s once again, with some upper 30s certainly possible for Central Louisiana and the East Texas Lakes Area.
Sunday will be absolutely beautiful. So, for the most part the string of nice weekends will continue for this pre-Thanksgiving weekend. After a chilly start, a decent warm up is expected with temperatures rebounding into the mid 60s...very similar to today. The air mass moving in behind Friday night's front, won't be quite as cool as the current one, but a nice one nonetheless. The next storm system seems to be following all of our teams...LSU Saturday, and the Saints Sunday. While it will be gorgeous, it'll be warm and humid in Tampa for the noon contest between the Saints and Bucs. A chance of a shower is also in the forecast, but it certainly won't be a wash out by any means. High temperatures will be in the lower 80s in the Tampa Bay Area Sunday. Winds across our area will maintain a light Northerly component for much of Sunday, but as the ridge begins to slide Eastward, the winds will respond in tandem with an Easterly wind established by late in the day. Clouds should remain over Central Texas and the Gulf waters.
I mentioned that the pattern is very progressive last night. The progressive pattern will continue for the short work week. The entire process will repeat itself beginning Monday. Monday will be a day of transition ahead of yet another in the series of Pacific storm systems. A cold front will be moving out of the Rockies, and stretch from the Red River Valley to the Rio Grande Valley by Monday morning. The high will retreat to the East, and a return flow comes right back opening up the Gulf for business once again. Clouds will increase during the day Monday, along with a noticeable increase in low-level moisture, but it should remain dry at least for the daylight hours. Seasonable temperatures are expected Monday as a moderating trend will be in place with the said return flow. The fast moving pattern will not allow a prolonged period of low-level flow, therefore this will limit rain chances. The front nears the forecast area Monday night into Tuesday. This is when the next chance of rain is inserted into the forecast. This is still far enough into the forecast to expect discrepancies on strength and timing, and this is certainly the case. A sufficient amount of low-level moisture does not appear to be present, and it is the front itself (lifting mechanism) that will generate the rain chances. The best chance will come on Tuesday likely between midnight and noon...I'll narrow it down further over the weekend, once we get past the Friday/Saturday event. It is uncertain how much rain will fall ahead of this front, but it is looking more likely now that severe weather won't be an issue. This solution may come to fruition with the fast flow in place, that doesn't allow for a very high moisture content to be present. It will be overcast Monday night in anticipation of the front, and milder temperatures should result. The front moves through after daybreak Tuesday, and the highest rain chances occur at this time, but it won't be overly high. It could be very similar to what we experienced back on Monday.
Air mass change occurs once again behind the Tuesday front, with a transition to sharply colder once again. There are some signals of the coldest air of the season infiltrating the region behind this front. It should certainly be as cool as the current air mass. Temperatures won't move much on Tuesday mainly as a result of the return of CAA processes. Morning lows will be near 50, while afternoon highs struggle to exceed the 60 day threshold. Another large area of high pressure will ridge into the forecast area creating another night of perfect radiative cooling. I believe we'll certainly see lower 40s, but could very well be in the 30s for almost all locations by Wednesday morning. We'll dissect this idea as we get closer, to see if there'll be a more widespread frost possibility for the forecast area, either way it will be bordering on the cold category. Benign weather rounds out this forecast period with high pressure in the driver's seat just like our beloved 9-0 New Orleans Saints are in the NFL!!! After a, what the heck...I'll call it cold start, on Wednesday, we'll warm up to the lower 60s. This is quite pleasant, but below normal for the time of year...no complaints! So, Drew what about Thanksgiving? That is certainly the $65, 943 question with each passing day. It's almost within range of the 7 day forecast period. I still won't get too specific yet as far as temperatures goes based on this reason, but there is enough consistency from models now to lean towards a Sunny and Cool solution. I would expect just below normal to normal temperatures for the all important holiday. Much of the long Thanksgiving weekend is looking good at the moment, but again we will divulge all that in the coming days. I better wrap this up before someone turns the hose on me.
Tropics: Silencio!
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 42/71 50/68 48/58 0 0 0 20 60 30
LFT 41/72 49/69 50/60 0 0 0 20 60 40
BPT 45/73 54/66 47/59 0 0 0 30 70 20
AEX 38/69 45/65 44/55 0 0 0 20 50 30
POE 39/70 47/66 45/56 0 0 0 20 50 30
ARA 42/72 52/70 51/61 0 0 0 20 70 40
Tonight...Clear. Low 42. Light SE wind.
Thursday...Sunny. High 71. SE wind 5-10 mph.
Thursday Night...Clear becoming Partly Cloudy after midnight. Low 50. Light East wind.
Friday...Partly Cloudy in the morning, becoming Mostly Cloudy with a 20% chance of rain after 3p.m.Windy. High 68. East wind 15-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph possible afternoon.
Friday Night...Cloudy and Windy with Rain Likely. Low 48. East wind becoming North at 15-20 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 60%.
Saturday...Cloudy with a 30% chance of rain until about 10a.m., Windy and Cool. Becoming Sunny in the afternoon. High 58. NNW wind 15-20 mph and gusty.
Drew's 7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity
Thursday
11-19-09
Low: 42
High: 71
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 5-10
Friday
11-20-09
Low: 50
High: 68
Rain: 20% PM...60% After Dark
Wind: E 15-20
Saturday
11-21-09
Low: 48
High: 58
Rain: 30% AM...60% Before Sunrise
Wind: NNW 15-20
Sunday
11-22-09
Low: 40
High: 64
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
Monday
11-23-09
Low: 47
High: 72
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 10-15
Tuesday
11-24-09
Low: 52
High: 59
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSW/NNW 15-20
Wednesday
11-25-09
Low: 38
High: 62
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10-15
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet or less.
Thursday...East winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet building to 1 to 3 feet in the afternoon.
Thursday Night...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Friday...East winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 30 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet building to 3 to 4 feet in the afternoon. A chance of rain.
Friday Night...Northeast winds 20 to 30 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Widespread rain.
Saturday...Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A chance of showers.
...Tide Data...
Thursday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:
Low: 9:46a.m.
High: 5:55p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
172.46'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
Low: 41
Normal Low: 49
Record Low: 27-1959
High: 67
Normal High: 70
Record High: 87-1913
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 0.11"
Normal Month to Date: 2.71"
Year to Date: 62.05"
Normal Year to Date: 50.69"
Record: 2.44'-1960
Sunrise Thursday: 6:42a.m.
Sunset Thursday: 5:15p.m.
Thursday Hunting Times: 6:12a.m.-5:45p.m.
...Lunar Table...
First Quarter- Tuesday November 24
Full Moon- Wednesday December 2
Last Quarter- Wednesday December 9
New Moon- Wednesday December 16
Good night and God bless!
-DM-
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