Monday, November 23, 2009
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...It was a nice day across the forecast area with weak high pressure in control. Areas of fog were present early this morning, but the fog quickly dissipated and sunshine replaced the fog. Low clouds continued to plague Northern portions of the forecast area this morning, before finally burning off after lunch. Temperatures were mild on this Monday afternoon with readings ranging from the mid 60s around Alexandria to the lower 70s for Lake Charles, Lafayette, and Beaumont. High pressure has shifted to our East, and a return flow of low-level moisture from the Gulf has commenced. The return flow will continue overnight ahead of our next cold front. Expect overnight lows to be in the upper 40s to lower 50s across the forecast area with skies remaining mostly clear. Patchy fog can't be ruled out across the forecast area, but it should not be as much of an issue on Tuesday morning as it was this morning.
The cold front is making good headway tonight, and as of 10p.m. extends along a line from the Rio Grande Valley between Marfa to between Wichita Falls and Dallas to near Tulsa, OK up into Central Kansas and Nebraska. There is no rain along the front at this time until you get into Kansas and Nebraska, and most of that is on the back side in the vicinity of the attendant upper level low.The front will continue surging SE through the overnight hours, and move into the forecast area during the day Tuesday. Instability and dynamics are lacking, so an organized rain event is not expected. All of the energy associated with the Subtropical Jet Stream will remain suppressed to our South over the big pond. There is sufficient enough low-level moisture in place, and of course, the presence of a lifting mechanism to generate some shower/thunderstorm activity. The best chance for any shower and thunderstorm activity will come between noon and 4p.m. The cold front should enter the forecast area extending from near Houston to Toledo Bend by mid-morning Tuesday, and along a Beaumont to Fort Polk line shortly after noon. The boundary should reach a Lake Charles to Alexandria line by 2p.m., and a Lafayette to Natchez, MS line around 4p.m. The front will move through quickly thanks to fast upper level support, so any rain short be short-lived, and without the presence of sufficient dynamics, no severe weather is expected. Ahead of the front, a moist air mass will remain in place Tuesday morning with temperatures quickly rising into the low to mid 70s area wide. Some sunshine is possible early, but generally we should endure Mostly Cloudy skies for Tuesday. Certainly not everyone will see rain, and forecast philosophy really has changed all that much since last night. However, that being said, I will raise rain chances a bit based on the fact that there is beneficial low-level moisture in place, and the close proximity of the deeper moisture and instability over the Gulf. It'll be a situation where it comes in, and gets out almost as fast. As a new round of CAA commences in the wake of the front Tuesday afternoon, winds will shift and pick up behind the front over land, and winds and seas will follow suit offshoreThe expected quick movement of the front will most definitely limit rainfall amounts, and the forecast models suggest this. I expect totals to range from almost nothing to up to 1/2" in some locations, but on average amounts should be less than 1/4". This is illustrated by the map below.
Conditions quickly improve Tuesday night with clear skies returning, and temperatures dropping back to below normal levels. By Wednesday morning, 40s are expected area wide, and with the wind it'll feel quite chilly with the apparent temperature in the 30s. NNW winds of 10-15 mph will be present as a pressure differential remains in the wake of the front, and as we await high pressure to build in right overhead. Wednesday is the busiest travel day of the year, and the weather looks great for any travel plans you may have. Sunny and cool will be the name of the game as Tuesday's front pushes everything way out into the Gulf. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 60s, just a smidge below normal for late November. Benign weather will rule the roost for much of the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. Thanksgiving Day itself looks great with morning lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the forecast area. A secondary front will come through during the day on Turkey Day, but with no fanfare. The only noticeable weather will likely be the wind. High pressure in place will result in nearly calm winds early in the day, but the winds will pick up once again as the front moves through continuing the offshore flow. The re-enforcement will traverse the forecast area during the afternoon hours on Thanksgiving. Afternoon highs won't really be much different than that of Wednesday with the same air mass in place. The coolest nights of the season so far are on tap for Thanksgiving night and Friday night as a stronger area of high pressure nestles into the Northern Gulf coast region. Frost will be likely for many locations including Lake Charles & Vicinity and Acadiana. Temperatures for both Friday and Saturday morning should be in the mid to upper 30s across the forecast area with the exception of the coast where low 40s are a good call. High temperatures Friday will be a bit cooler behind the re-enforcing shot of cool air with upper 50s to lower 60s expected. On Saturday, a moderating trend will commence late in the day as the large anticyclone slowly moves East of the "Big Muddy". Temperatures will be back in the low to mid 60s once again. It'll be nearly perfect for the McNeese playoff game vs. the University of New Hampshire at 2p.m. in Cowboy Stadium. Looks good for LSU vs. Arkansas too on Saturday night in Death Valley. A subtle low-level return flow will start Saturday evening.
A quick warming trend will follow as the high vacates the region, and the low-level onshore flow intensifies on Sunday. This, as another storm system begins to encroach on the area. There is still some wonderment as to how strong it will be, but the general consensus is that it could be a phased system. That is, a surface low forming out ahead of the advancing trough and cold front, and another upper level low on its back side. There are all kinds of scenarios that could play out with this system as we get into Sunday. The majority of Sunday will be dry, and forecast philosophy hasn't changed all that much since last night. Clouds will certainly increase Sunday along with humidity and winds. Temperatures will moderate as well with morning lows back into the 40s, and highs reaching near 70. I will insert a chance of showers for Sunday afternoon, but better chances will enter the forecast overnight as the strong system approaches. The trough will be digging as it comes out of the Rockies, and energy from the Subtropical Jet Stream will be thrown into the equation as you would expect with an El Nino pattern. The Sunday night/Monday period offers the best chance for rain this forecast period. Some thunderstorms will be possible with much more energy in place this go around. The best chance for thunderstorm activity should come Monday morning ahead of the front. Timing is an issue at this point, and its too soon to get specific about an ETA especially since models are all over the place on the timing and the intensity of the storm system. The upper level pattern favors a turn to much colder weather behind this next front. In fact, Monday looks like a day with falling temperatures. It could very well be in the 60s in the morning, before quickly dropping into the 40s behind the boundary in the afternoon. A period of overrunning rain is possible on Monday as well, and I will already put rain chances in the likely category for Monday. The temperature forecast will be a tricky one. Monday ends this forecast period, but there is enough consistency at this point, to begin mentioning that the coldest air of the season will follow the front on Monday as the upper level flow taps into some Arctic air currently over Canada. This would produce the first widespread freeze of the season across the forecast area just in time for the beginning of meteorological winter, Tuesday December 1. Depending on how much of the cold air gets in here, we could see some 20s area wide by next Tuesday and/or Wednesday...we'll just have to wait and see. I'll certainly fine tune this forecast after Thanksgiving, but at this point I believe it is safe to say the trend is for cold for the first part of December. December is often an active weather month, and if the trend that I am seeing right now is any indication, then December 2009 will be no exception.
Tropics: Quiet. This section will be discontinued after next Monday, the 30th as this will mark the official end of Hurricane Season 2009. It will return on Tuesday, June 1, 2010.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 52/72 45/65 40/63 0 30 0 0 0 0
LFT 51/74 46/64 40/62 0 40 0 0 0 0
BPT 55/72 48/66 42/63 0 30 0 0 0 0
AEX 49/70 43/62 37/59 0 30 0 0 0 0
POE 50/70 44/62 38/60 0 30 0 0 0 0
ARA 53/73 47/65 41/63 0 40 0 0 0 0
Tonight...Partly Cloudy with some Patchy Fog toward morning. Low 52. Light SE wind.
Tuesday...Patchy Fog dissipating early, otherwise Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly between noon and 4p.m. High 72. SE wind 10 mph becoming NNW at 10-15 mph in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night...Clear, Windy, and Cooler. Low 45. NNW wind 15 mph and gusty.
Wednesday...Sunny. High 65. North wind 10 mph.
Wednesday Night...Clear. Low 40. Light North wind.
Thanksgiving Day...Sunny. High 63. NNW wind 10-15 mph.
Drew's 7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity
Wind: SE/NNW 10-15
Wind: N 10
Wind: NNW 10-15
Wind: N 5-10
Wind: NE 5-10
Wind: SSE 10-15
Falling back into the 40s in the afternoon
Wind: SSW/NNW 15-25
Tonight...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday...East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 3 feet. A chance of showers.
winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas
2 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight. A slight chance of
showers in the evening.
Wednesday...North winds 15 to 20
knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet
subsiding to 2 to 3 feet in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night...North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Thanksgiving Day...North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Monday, November 23, 2009
Normal Low: 48
Record Low: 28-1975
Normal High: 68
Record High: 91-1975
Month to Date: 1.92"
Normal Month to Date: 3.51"
Year to Date: 63.86"
Normal Year to Date: 51.49"
Sunrise Tuesday: 6:46a.m.
Sunset Tuesday: 5:13p.m.
Tuesday Hunting Times: 6:16a.m.-5:43p.m.
Good night and God Bless!