Happy Veteran's Day to all Veterans. You truly are our real heroes. Thank you so much for your undying dedication and service to our great nation. It is because of all of you that we are able to enjoy our freedoms today. I extend my heartfelt thanks to all Veterans past, present, and future. Words can't say enough how grateful I am to live in this country, and that we have such dedicated men and women that fight to keep us safe everyday among all the evil in the world. Our thoughts and prayers are with all those serving all over the world, and our hearts continue to be with all those at Fort Hood after last week's tragedy. While today may have been Veteran's Day, we should honor our troops everyday. America...the home of the free, because of the brave. God bless all our Veterans and God bless America!!!
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...It was another beautiful day across the forecast area with high pressure in control. The nearest active weather continues to be what was once Ida over the Mid-Atlantic States where a Nor'Easter is taking shape. A re-enforcing cold front came through today in the continued NW flow aloft. Afternoon temperatures were a bit above normal for the second day in a row, but it was pleasant all the way around with the low humidity. No sensible weather was observed today even as the re-enforcement moved through. Winds were still a bit gusty at times out of the North as the pressure gradient continues to relax. Winds picked up briefly this afternoon as the dry front moved through. The great weather will continue for the remainder of the work week some cooler temperatures for the next couple of days as the high pressure ridge in place strengthens. Clear and cool conditions are expected tonight with lows ranging from the mid 40s around Alexandria to the mid 50s at the immediate coast.
Sunny skies and seasonable temperatures are expected for Thursday. With ridging processes strengthening the air mass will dry out even further, thus in turn driving humidity values even lower. Expect humidity values in the 20-30% range in the afternoon...simply perfection! Highs should be around 70...give or take a degree. The coolest night of the week, and one of the coolest so far this season is in store for Thursday night as high pressure noses in further, and keep winds very light. This will create maximum radiational cooling processes as dew points drop well into the 40s. Expect minimum values to range from the low to mid 40s across the area. Friday will be another gorgeous day with seasonable temperatures after the cool start. Maximums should be in the lower 70s. The high pressure will slowly nudge Eastward through the latter half of the work week. Perfect weather is expected for the first round of the High School Football playoffs on Friday. Temperatures at kickoff should be in the low to mid 60s while the expected temperatures by half time should be around 60. Temperatures will drop into the 50s during the second half.
The great weather will continue into the weekend, but a return of low-level moisture will commence as the controlling high nudges Eastward. A warming trend ensues as well with the onshore flow taking shape. After a morning low in the lower 50s, Saturday highs should be in the mid 70s. The next trough and associated cold front will be intensifying over the Great Plains, and be poised to move our way. The return flow becomes firmly entrenched by late Saturday with a noticeable increase in low-level moisture expected by Saturday night, and the formation of some clouds expected. Low temperatures will be slightly above normal with most locations reaching the mid 50s by sunrise Sunday. Moisture levels continue increasing Sunday. While cloud cover will be on the increase in advance of the next cold front; it should remain dry with generally Partly Cloudy skies expected. Above normal warmth is slated for Sunday with highs near 80. The Southerly flow will be increasing at this time as well. Rain chances should hold off until Sunday night when the deepening and digging trough and associated cold front move close enough to stir up a few showers. The mild spell will continue with upper 50s to near 60 expected for temperatures heading into Monday.
Monday will be the only day this forecast period that offers rain chances. There are still some differences in the models as far as the timing of the front. Questions also remain about how much rain will occur, but the one noticeable difference compared to last night is that there is better agreement that there will be a better chance of rain than was indicated on the last forecast package. The best dynamics should remain displaced from the area as the upper level flow will allow for a continued reprieve from any effects of the Subtropical Jet Stream, which is so prevalent during an El Nino year. At this time, no severe weather is expected, but there could be enough instability for a few thunderstorms ahead of the front Monday afternoon. I won't be specific about an expected arrival time of the front through the forecast area just yet. As we get closer to Monday, I will pin down an ETA; this far out there is still so many timing discrepancies that exist. Based on model output, I will raise rain chances for Monday substantially from where they were last night. All indications are that this will be a quick mover, and whatever Gulf moisture is available will quickly be scoured out Monday night. Rainfall amounts should be an inch or less...this is also something that will be re-worked in the coming days. Mild and breezy conditions are also expected Monday with morning lows near 60. Afternoon highs will be a bit cooler with the expected rain moving in, and the arrival of the front itself impinging on the area. Expect a maximum for Monday to be in the lower 70s...about seasonable.
A fresh Northerly breeze returns in the wake of the front Monday night, and the coolest air mass of the season will be ushered in thanks to strong CAA over the forecast area. The NW flow aloft will help to pull down some cooler Canadian air, and this will mix with the dry Pacific air mass across the Western half of the nation at this time. Skies should clear overnight Monday, with temperatures dropping off fairly quickly into the 40s area wide by Tuesday morning. Afternoons will almost have a cool feel to them behind the front with highs in the mid 60s. The end of the forecast period looks to be the coolest morning of the season so far with lower 40s expected for most, with dare I say, even some upper 30s for the Northern extremities of the forecast area. Afternoon highs will remain slightly below seasonable levels, but certainly tolerable for mid-November. The cool, dry air mass should remain in place for much of next week once we get the front through here on Monday. Looking long range briefly, a more active pattern, typical November, may establish itself around the 20th. Could we see our first taste of Arctic air sometime around Thanksgiving? Time will tell, but at this point one can only speculate.
Tropics: Quiet. Coming tomorrow, I will have a historical review of landfalling November tropical systems in the U.S. There's been a lot of talk about this since Ida made landfall early this week along the Northern Gulf.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 50/70 45/72 51/75 0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 49/71 45/73 50/76 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 52/72 48/74 53/77 0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 45/68 42/70 47/74 0 0 0 0 0 0
POE 46/69 43/71 47/74 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 51/71 46/72 52/75 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tonight...Clear. Low 50. North wind 10 mph.
Thursday...Sunny. High 70. North wind 5-10 mph.
Thursday Night...Clear. Low 45. Light NE wind.
Friday...Sunny. High 72. NE wind 5-10 mph.
Friday Night...Clear. Low 51. Light East wind.
Saturday...Sunny. High 75. SE wind 5-10 mph.
Drew's 7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity
Thursday
11-12-09
Low: 50
High: 70
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
Friday
11-13-09
Low: 45
High: 72
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
Saturday
11-14-09
Low: 51
High: 75
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 5-10
Sunday
11-15-09
Low: 56
High: 79
Rain: 20% Late
Wind: SSE 10-15
Monday
11-16-09
Low: 60
High: 70
Rain: 60%
Wind: SSE/NNW 15-20
Tuesday
11-17-09
Low: 48
High: 66
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
Wednesday
11-18-09
Low: 43
High: 68
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet after midnight.
Thursday...Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet subsiding to 1 foot in the afternoon.
Thursday Night...East winds around 5 knots. Seas 1 foot.
Friday...Southeast winds around 5 knots becoming south in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet or less.
Friday Night...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet.
...Tide Data...
Thursday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:
Low: 5:41a.m. 6:00p.m.
High: 11:17a.m. 10:23p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
172.54'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Low: 60
Normal Low: 51
Record Low: 29-1914
High: 78
Normal High: 72
Record High: 88-1915
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 0.05"
Normal Month to Date: 1.59"
Year to Date: 61.99"
Normal Year to Date: 49.57"
Record: 3.48"-1966
Sunrise Thursday: 6:36a.m.
Sunset Thursday: 5:18p.m.
Hunting Times: 6:06a.m.-5:48p.m.
Good night and God bless!
-DM-
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