SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...High pressure dominated the weather today with another gorgeous day experienced across the area. Clear skies and low humidity reigned supreme while the clouds spent the day in absentia. A few high clouds streamed into the region late in the day, but overall it was another Nifty November day. After a cool start with lows at the low end of the 50s, afternoon highs reached the low to mid 70s. A Nor'Easter, that formed from the remnants of Ida, continues to plague the Eastern Seaboard, but the benign weather continues for the forecast area. With the presence of the large anti-cyclone a light Northerly flow was discernible at the surface. High pressure is nestled in our general vicinity for the overnight hours, and this will allow for one of the coolest nights of the season so far as near maximum radiational cooling takes hold. The only inhibiting factor that would keep us from bottoming out in the low to mid 40s across the area would be some of the streamer cirrus clouds moving in from West to East. So far, these have been very thin, and not enough to hamper the cooling process. The cirrus shield will be present for the next couple of days from time to time, and can wreak havoc on a temperature forecast especially at night. Based on how things have progressed thus far, I will call for lows in the low to the mid 40s except for some upper 30s around Alexandria, and upper 40s at the coast. Winds should be calm or very light out of the NE overnight.
Friday will be very pleasant once again as the large area of high pressure continues to be the dominant force. However, a very subtle return flow will commence during the day Friday as the core of the high slowly nudges Eastward into the SE U.S. Very low humidity is expected once again, and seasonal temperatures in the low to mid 70s are forecast. Once again, the only fly in the ointment will be high clouds moving across during the day. These clouds may filter the sunshine at times, but no rain is expected. Dry and pleasant conditions are expected Friday night for all the High School Football Playoff games. The First Round games will be dry with a Mostly Clear sky and light South winds. Temperatures should be around 65 at kickoff and about 58-60 by game's end. Good luck to all SW Louisiana teams! Eventual lows for Friday night/Saturday morning will be in the lower 50s. Patchy fog is possible as well with a very light onshore flow.
The weekend begins with a continuation of the dry weather. The Southerly flow becomes more prevalent on Saturday, but it should still be very pleasant as it will take a while for the deep Gulf moisture to return, as the last front did a great job of flushing everything way out into the Gulf as Ida departed. The low-level flow will intensify ahead of our next developing storm system which will be over the Great Plains at this time. A warming trend initiates as well. Expect afternoon highs to be in the upper 70s for most locales. The weather looks very nice for all Saturday ball games as well, not to mention any other outdoor event. McNeese plays on the road Saturday night at 6p.m. against Texas State. Skies should be Partly Cloudy with a kickoff temperature around 66 falling to near 60 in the second half. LSU has Homecoming this weekend against out of conference opponent and in-state Louisiana Tech. Skies should be Mostly Clear over Death Valley at for the 6p.m. kickoff. Kickoff temperature should be around 68 while it should fall to near 60 in the second half. The air mass modification continues for the Saturday night-Sunday period with an increase in cloud cover and temperatures. Overnight lows for Sunday morning should be in the upper 50s. Some fog is possible once again Saturday night, in fact it could a bit more likely due to ample low-level moisture in place at that time. All indications are that the entire weekend will be dry, as the approaching cold front and deepening trough slow down over Texas as energy feeding into the system causes cyclogenesis to occur along the front. Pressure anomalies will increase the southerly flow across the area, and clouds will continue to increase. Under Partly Cloudy skies temperatures should reach the upper 70s once again. Warm and muggy conditions are expected for Sunday night, but we should still be dry as the front remains to our West.
The next trough and the attendant cold front will move into and through the region on Monday. This will bring our next chance of rain. The good news is that at this time, average rainfall amounts should be around 1". The best dynamics with this system will bypass the area, as the surface low rides up along the front into the Mid West. Timing differences still exist, but best guess is that the highest probability for rain will come from late morning through mid afternoon. Enough instability appears to be present for some thunderstorms. The presence of a long duration return flow, and the enhancement of the Subtropical Jet Stream the possibility of one or two severe storms can't be overlooked. This is certainly not a foregone conclusion at this time, and fine tuning is a given in the coming days. The front should have no trouble moving through the area, and once it arrives Monday afternoon, it will keep moving. This will bring an end to the rain Monday night. The coolest air of the season will be ushered in behind the front thanks to a strong NW flow at the surface and aloft. It will windy and turning much cooler Monday night with skies clearing. Temperatures will fall off into the mid 40s by sunrise Tuesday, and with the gusty North winds a wind chill may come into play really for the first time all season...upper 30s.
High pressure builds in to dominate the weather through the end of the forecast period for Tuesday-Thursday. Cool and dry weather is expected each day with highs struggling to reach the lower 60s even with sunny skies on Tuesday thanks to strong CAA. Winds will subside during the day as the next anticyclone builds in from the Great Plains. Tuesday night/Wednesday morning will bring the coolest temperatures of the season thus far.
Overnight lows will average the low 40s, but many locations in the Northern half of the forecast area will reach the upper 30s. Great weather prevails at mid-week with high pressure anchored right over the Bayou State. Highs should remain shy of 70 degrees. Air mass modification begins at day 7 as the high slides East, and we repeat the process as Gulf flow initiates. Morning lows will be in the 40s again, but mid to upper 40s should suffice. Afternoon highs will return to the 70s as moisture levels slowly increase with the high over Alabama by this time. Another strong trough and associated cold front will be developing at this time, and be poised to begin affecting the area just beyond this forecast period. If the current model projections, hold pre-Thanksgiving weekend could be mild, wet and stormy. This remains to be seen, but it appears that a significant pattern shift will occur sometime next week setting up very active weather for the rest of the month. Early prognostications for Thanksgiving have been a toss up at best, but the overall trend is for a wet and cold end to November. It is uncertain if the cold air will invade before, on, or after Thanksgiving. Stay tuned!
Tropics: Quiet. The remnants of Ida have become a Nor'Easter off the East coast. Strong winds, heavy rain, and flooding will occur for the rest of the week for a large portion of the East coast as the low will be slow to move.
As promised, here's the historical review of landfalling November tropical systems in the U.S. I researched records dating back to 1851. There have been a plethora of actual tropical systems in the month of November, whether it be a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane. However, for the sake of this report, only those systems which made a U.S. landfall were considered. Also, there have been many systems that formed in October, and made landfall in the U.S., but were still affecting part of the country in November, but as an extratropical cyclone by that time. These have also been discounted for this report, as I only wanted systems that reached their point of landfall classified as a tropical system. Once again, I will note that there has never been a landfalling tropical system in Louisiana during the month of November. The latest storm to strike Louisiana was Hurricane Juan in October 1985. Juan formed during the last week of October, and did a couple loop-de-loops over South Louisiana. Juan officially dissipated on November 1. There's been much wonderment about landfalling tropical systems in the U.S. during the month of November since Ida made landfall earlier this week. Now, without further adieu here is the information I found.
The data compiled shows that from 1851-2009 there have been seven (7) landfalling tropical systems somewhere in the United States during the month of November. Of the seven named storms, there were three (3) hurricanes, and four (4) tropical storms including Ida.
The first known occurrence of a landfalling U.S. tropical system that I could find for the month of November occurred in 1861. It was a category 1 hurricane which formed as a tropical storm on November 1st off the coast of South Florida, and accelerated NEward and intensified into a category 1 hurricane with maximum winds of 80 mph making landfall on November 2nd near Cape Hatteras, NC. The storm called #8 (tropical systems were only numbered back then...no names came along until after war time in the 1940s.) The storm skirted the entire U.S. East coast, and likely morphed into a Nor'Easter by November 3rd.
The second occurrence of a landfalling November system came a while later in 1916. A tropical storm affected the Florida Keys between November 11th and 16th before quickly moving into the Atlantic and transitioning to an extratropical storm.
Some short years later, a category 1 hurricane made landfall near Sarasota, FL near the official end of the season on November 30, 1925. This storm raced across Central Florida, and into the Atlantic, and re-intensified into a hurricane in early December. It was another storm that would parallel the East coast.
It was quite a while before another tropical system would officially make a U.S. landfall during the season's final month. Fast forward to 1985...Hurricane Kate is the strongest November hurricane on record in the U.S. Kate formed in the far Eastern Caribbean on November 15, and behaved much like a storm during prime time would behave. Kate moved due West, and intensified into a hurricane north of Puerto Rico. Kate continued moving to the WNW paralleling Cuba and entering the Gulf of Mexico intensifying into a category 2 coming out of the Florida Straits. On November 20th, Kate reached peak intensity as a category 3 with 120 mph winds, and it had begun to make a due Northward turn off the West coast of Florida. A northward motion continued, and Kate began weakening as it began to be influenced by cooler sea-surface temperatures over the Northern Gulf. Kate weakened, but since it had been so strong in the East Central Gulf, it was a strong category 1 storm with 90 mph winds when it made landfall on the Florida Panhandle near Mexico Beach, Florida.
In November 1994, a storm that caused headaches for forecasts occurred as the storm did loop-de-loops off the East coast. Gordon, which formed in the SW Caribbean, caused many problems for the island nations of the Caribbean claiming 122 lives in Haiti as a tropical storm. Gordon is the deadliest hurricane in history for the month of November. Gordon was a tropical storm throughout its trek over the Caribbean and SE Gulf, and didn't become a hurricane until it was over the Atlantic off the coast of North Carolina. Gordon moved very erratically, and made three (3) U.S. landfalls. While still a tropical storm, one of Gordon's landfalls occurred over the Florida Keys, and over the mainland of Florida near Fort Myers on November 16th. Next, Gordon emerged into the Atlantic Ocean near Vero Beach, FL as a tropical storm. Gordon moved NEward from there, and strengthened into a category 1 hurricane, and while it was off the coast of North Carolina, it appeared to be headed out to sea. However, a building ridge over the Atlantic caused Gordon to turn back towards the SE United States. Gordon looped around for several days off the Atlantic coast, and weakened as it ingested cooler waters and drier air. Gordon's final landfall occurred near Cape Caneveral, FL as a tropical depression on November 20th.
Just four (4) short years later in 1998, another tropical system affected South Florida during the month of November. This really wasn't the story with this storm. The storm, Tropical Storm Mitch, was a monumental storm. It formed in October, and at the time became the most intense hurricane ever in the Atlantic basin during the month of October. Mitch reached category 5 intensity with winds of 180 mph and gusts over 200 mph off the coast of Honduras. Mitch moved inland over Honduras as a catastrophic hurricane, and caused a very sad and awful situation for the poor countries of Central America. Mitch killed nearly 9,100 people in Central America in October 1998. After making landfall in Honduras on October 27, Mitch meandered over Central America for days, before being pulled Northward by an advancing trough over the Gulf of Mexico. The low-level circulation of Mitch survived its trek across Central America, and emerged into the Southern Gulf of Mexico off the coast of the Yucatan in early November. Mitch re-intensified to a tropical storm, and moved NE towards South Florida. Tropical Storm Mitch made landfall with 60 mph winds just South of Fort Myers, FL on November 5th. Mitch crossed Florida, and became an extratropical system over the Atlantic.
Finally, the most recent November tropical system to make landfall was Tropical Storm Ida. Ida formed late last week off the coast of Nicaragua, and steadily strengthened into a category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds before making landfall over Nicaragua on Thursday, the 5th. Ida weakened to a tropical depression as it moved over the rugged terrain of Nicaragua and Honduras. Ida brought life-threatening floods to the region. Ida's circulation made a Northward turn, and on Friday afternoon, Ida emerged into the Western Caribbean Sea. It intensified as it moved Northward over the Western Caribbean on Friday the 6th, becoming a hurricane once again on Saturday night. Ida continued to intensify into Sunday becoming a formidable category 2 storm with winds peaking at 105 mph. Ida moved towards the Northern Gulf Coast, and Hurricane Warnings were issued from Pascagoula, MS to Mexico Beach, FL. Ida weakened over the Central and Northern Gulf as it felt the effects of the cooler SST's, increasing wind shear over the Gulf, and an approaching trough. Ida made landfall as a 60 mph transitioning tropical storm near Dauphin Island and Bon Secour, Alabama on Tuesday morning. Ida brought some gusty winds and heavy rains to the Northern Gulf Coast, and is now plaguing the Atlantic Seaboard as a Nor'Easter. Ida was transitioning to an extratropical system at time of landfall, and there is some speculation as to whether Ida was fully tropical at time of landfall or not. Ida isn't the latest landfalling tropical entity in the U.S. during the month of November, but based on the research conducted it made landfall further West than any other November storm in history. The final data for Ida is still being compiled, so more information may become available later.
As you can see from the data above, landalling November tropical systems on U.S. soil are a bit unusual, but not entirely unheard of. All of these storms are a basic reminder to us that even though the weather may be turning cooler, it is still hurricane season for a couple more weeks yet. Ida is a big story in what has been a quiet season overall, but only because it came so late. Ida was certainly no big deal in terms of intensity, and I think a lot of the hype with Ida built up because of the time of year that it was occurring. Now, that you know the history of landfalling November tropical systems, I suppose one day I will have to talk about out of season tropical systems. If you have any questions or comments on this or any other subject, please feel free to drop me a line either on here, or by e-mail.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 45/73 51/77 56/78 0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 44/73 50/78 55/79 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 47/74 53/78 57/80 0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 42/71 46/75 52/77 0 0 0 0 0 0
POE 42/72 47/75 53/77 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 46/73 50/76 54/78 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tonight...Clear and Cool. Low 45. Calm wind.
Friday..Sunny with a few high clouds. High 73. East wind 5 mph in the morning, becoming SE 5-10 mph in the afternoon.
Friday Night...Clear and Not as Cool. Low 51. Light SE wind.
Saturday...Sunny. High 77. SE wind 10-15 mph.
Saturday Night...Mostly Clear with some Patchy Fog after midnight. Low 56. SE wind 5-10 mph.
Sunday...Partly Cloudy. High 78. SE wind 10-15 mph.
Drew's 7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity
Friday
11-13-09
Low: 45
High: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: E/SE 5-10
Saturday
11-14-09
Low: 51
High: 77
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 10-15
Sunday
11-15-09
Low: 56
High: 78
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 10-15
Monday
11-16-09
Low: 59
High: 71
Rain: 60%
Wind: SSE/NNW 15-20
Tuesday
11-17-09
Low: 44
High: 61
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 15-20
Wednesday
11-18-09
Low: 41
High: 65
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10-15
Thursday
11-19-09
Low: 45
High: 68
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
...Marine Forecast from NWS Lake Charles...
Tonight...East winds around 5 knots. Seas 1 foot.
Friday...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet or less then 1 foot in the afternoon.
Friday Night...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the afternoon.
Saturday Night...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Sunday...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet.
...Tide Data...
Friday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:
Low: 6:14a.m. 7:10p.m.
High: 12:37p.m. 10:36p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
172.50'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Thursday, November 12, 2009
Low: 51
Normal Low: 51
Record Low: 29-1950
High: 74
Normal High: 72
Record High: 91-1915
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 0.05"
Normal Month to Date: 1.75"
Year to Date: 61.99"
Normal Year to Date: 49.73"
Record: 2.00"-1935
Sunrise Friday: 6:37a.m.
Sunset Friday: 5:17p.m.
Hunting Times: 6:07a.m.-5:47p.m.
Good night and God bless!
-DM-
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