Friday, August 16, 2013

Blogs to Return Soon...

Friday, August 16, 2013

Your home for the most accurate & exclusive weather information in SW Louisiana will be right here once again very soon!

Look for the resumption of regular blog updates beginning next week!

Monday, January 28, 2013

Severe Weather Possible Tuesday Night...

Monday, January 28, 2013

Click below for the latest version of the video blog. Be sure to scroll down for the complete text form of the blog.

video


SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion.....It was an unseasonably warm & overcast late January day. Winds have also increased as the return flow of Gulf moisture deepens across the area. This is all in advance of the next potent storm system which is sweeping through the Great Plains and Upper MidWest at press time. This will affect SW Louisiana in the late afternoon Tuesday-early Wednesday morning time frame. Certainly, showers & thunderstorms will be prevalent across our part of the world, but will there be a severe weather threat as well? That is the main question for this forecast package, and I will answer it as best I can shortly. First, in the short-term look for a relatively uneventful Monday evening with a continuation of the overcast conditions. The atmosphere remains largely capped at this time. Low-level moisture is at a premium across the region already, and this only continue to be the case through the night. Some areas of fog will exist as we head into the Tuesday morning commute, but surface winds should stay up just enough to keep the atmosphere mixed up to preclude a significant fog threat with the exception of the coastal counties/parishes. Areas along and South of I-10 have a better chance of seeing widespread dense fog. A dense fog advisory is in effect for the aforementioned coastal areas. It is highly possible as the night wears on that the dense fog advisory could be extended further North. It is a given, however, that Mostly Cloudy and unseasonably warm conditions will continue and temperatures will only fall into the low to mid 60s. Most of the day tomorrow will remain just dry & unseasonably warm. The wind will be the big story for the day on Tuesday due to the increasing pressure gradient in response to the developing/approaching storm system. Winds out of a Southerly direction will continue on the order of 15-20 mph at times with higher gusts. A slight chance of a brief shower or two can't be ruled out by early afternoon, but rain chances don't really ramp up until late afternoon or evening. It may well still be dry across much of the area for evening drive time. This appears to be a set up that will allow for an accelerating system across this area.

Time frame for shower & thunderstorm activity looks to be from around 6p.m. to 6a.m. The current trough which resides across the Rocky Mountains will advance Eastward, and traverse SW Louisiana Tuesday Night. This will clash with the ample amounts of moisture we have to generate shower & thunderstorm activity across the area most likely sunset. Activity will be scattered in nature at first in the pre-frontal environment. The enhanced Jet Stream activity along with a surface low moving from SW to NE along the cold front will also add more instability to the equation, thus the severe weather threat. The entire forecast area is highlighted for at least a slight risk of severe thunderstorm activity. The northern extremity of the forecast area is pegged for a moderate risk. It does appear that the greatest threat for severe weather will reside safely to the NE of our area. A significant tornado outbreak looks to be unfolding from NE Louisiana through the Mid-Mississippi Valley. I'm sure it will be a long night for someone here across the South. Here at home, certainly some severe storms are possible, but from everything I have perused this should be on an isolated nature. Heavy rain looks like a good bet for all of us, but some of the storms along & ahead of the front could become rather boisterous producing damaging winds, large hail, or an isolated tornado. Damaging winds are the main threat with our storms, and to narrow down a time frame even further, the best chance for this looks be between 10p.m. for the extreme NW portion of the forecast area, to 4a.m. for the extreme SE portion. I will target 12-2a.m. for the Lake Area. I would advise to go ahead and have your severe weather plan of action in place for Tuesday night/Wednesday morning since this will more than likely come by the time most of us are asleep. Check your NOAA Weather Radio to make sure it's in alert mode. You might want to leave your TV or radio on all night, so that you can be informed that way if you don't have a NOAA Weather Radio. Flashlights & battery-powered radios/TVs/your cell phone are good items to have as well should their be a loss of power. Aside from this slight risk of severe weather, brief heavy rainfall is likely. This system is a fast mover, so that will in turn, limit rainfall totals. Soil moisture content across the area is still very high, and we don't need a whole lot of rain given the recent flooding, but should there be any flooding it should be localized & mostly be in urban & low-lying areas. All of this quickly progresses Eastward through the night, and the storms will be a distant memory (hopefully nothing more) by sunrise Wednesday. Some post-frontal shower activity is possible for a few hours behind the front, but much drier & much cooler air will quickly be taking over. The boundary layer moisture will be quickly scoured out as well, thus eliminating a prolonged period of overrunning. I have included some graphical representation of the severe weather outlook for Day 2 (Tuesday).


























The remainder of the forecast period offers a period of tranquility. This will be welcomed for sure by all involved with the Super Bowl activities & the plethora of Mardi Gras activities ongoing as well. Let us not forget it is Rodeo weekend here in Lake Charles as well. High pressure will ridge into the area from the Western U.S. as the day progresses Wednesday. Morning clouds will give way to sunny skies by around lunch time, if not sooner. Temperatures will return to near seasonal levels for late January, so after one more day of highs in the mid to potentially upper 70s Tuesday, we'll see highs back into the low to mid 60s for Wednesday. Chilly weather is on tap for Wednesday Night/Thursday Morning with clear skies & light winds in place thanks to the ridge of high pressure. Lows will be very close to freezing for Thursday Morning. Abundant sunshine will result in a quick warm up with highs reaching the mid 60s...nice & refreshing! Slight moderation begins Friday, but it will continue to be very nice. Morning lows will be in the 30s once again while highs reach the low to mid 60s. Subtle changes for the weekend. Another, but weaker cold front, will be heading our way Saturday. This will create very little weather across the way, perhaps just scare up some clouds. No rain as moisture will remain very limited due to lack of a prolonged return flow. Temperatures won't change all that much either. Seasonal temperature values are expected both Saturday & Sunday. Sunday looks super for any of your outdoor Super Bowl Sunday plans. Normal temperatures for early February are low 40s for lows and low to mid 60s for highs. Rounding out the forecast period on Monday, clouds will increase as a progressive pattern will be in place. Return flow of low-level moisture will advance across the area, but at this time rain chances are not expected to return until beyond this forecast period with the next front scheduled around the middle of next week. The big time Arctic outbreaks that have been visiting the Northern third of our great nation look to remain away from SW Louisiana for the time being. It is possible some modified Arctic air will visit the area in the day 10-14 period, but this is no concern for us right now. We're in fine shape after this bump in the road over the next 24 hours. Stay tuned for more!


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:

LCH   63/77  54/65  32/62  10 40 90 10 0 0
CAM  68/73  60/66  41/65  10 40 90 10 0 0
LFT    63/76  55/64  33/62  10 30 90 20 0 0
ARA   65/77  55/65  35/85  10 30 90 20 0 0
BPT    66/78  53/66  34/64  10 40 90 10 0 0
JAS     62/77  53/62  30/62  10 50 90 10 0 0
AEX   62/78  51/61  29/60  10 50 90 10 0 0
POE    62/78  51/61  30/61  10 50 90 10 0 0


Tonight...Mostly Cloudy with Patchy Fog developing after midnight. Low 63. SE wind 5-10 mph.

Tuesday...Patchy Fog early. Mostly Cloudy & Windy with a 40% chance of showers & thunderstorms mainly after 4p.m. High 77. SSE wind 15-20 mph & gusty. 

Tuesday Night...Cloudy w/ showers & thunderstorms likely. Some severe storms possible w/ damaging wind & isolated tornadoes. Heavy rainfall expected as well. Rainfall totals around 1" with isolated 2" amounts. Turning Cooler after midnight. Low 54. SSW wind 15-20 mph & gusty becoming WNW at 15-20 mph & gusty after midnight. Chance of rain 90%. 

Wednesday...Morning clouds giving way to Sunny skies by noon. Cooler. High 65. NNW wind 10-15 mph.

Wednesday Night...Clear & Cold. Low 32. Light NW wind. 

Thursday...Sunny. High 62. North wind 5-10 mph. 

Thursday Night...Clear & Seasonably Cold. Low 36. Light NE wind. 

Friday...Sunny. High 64. NE wind 5-10 mph. 

Friday Night...Clear. Low 41. East wind 5 mph.

Saturday...Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy. High 67. SE wind 5-10 mph, becoming NW 10 mph in the afternoon.


Tuesday 1/29/13 Daily Planner

6a.m.

Weather: Cloudy w/ Patchy Fog












Temp: 63
Rain: 10%
Wind: S 7

9a.m.

Weather: Cloudy & Breezy

Temp: 68
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 12

Noon

Weather:  Cloudy & Windy












Temp: 73
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 15


3p.m.

Weather: Cloudy w/ some Scattered Showers Developing












Temp:76
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 18

6p.m.


Weather: Cloudy w/ Showers & Thunderstorms Becoming More Organized













Temp: 72
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSE 15


9p.m.

Weather: Showers & Thunderstorms Likely












Temp: 70
Rain: 70%
Wind: SSE 15 


Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Tuesday
1-29-13











Low:  63
High: 77
Rain:  40% PM...90% Overnight
Wind: SSE 15-20


Wednesday
1-30-13











Low:  54
High: 65
Rain:  90% Before Daybreak...0% During the Day
Wind: NNW 10-15


Thursday
1-31-13
Low:  32
High: 62
Rain:  0%
Wind: N 5-10


Friday
2-1-13










Low:  36
High: 64
Rain:  0%
Wind: NE 5-10


Saturday
2-2-13
Groundhog Day











Low:  41
High: 67
Rain:  0%
Wind: SSE/NNW 5-10
 

Sunday
2-3-13
Super Bowl Sunday...Ravens vs. 49ers...New Orleans









Low:  43
High: 65
Rain:  0%
Wind: NE 5-10



Monday
2-4-13
Low:  45
High: 68
Rain:  0%
Wind: SE 10-15


...Marine Forecast...

*Dense Fog Advisory through 9a.m. Tuesday.*

*Small Craft Exercise Caution through Early Tuesday.*

Tonight: Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Patchy dense fog in the evening...then areas of dense fog after midnight. Visibility 1 nm or less.

Tuesday: South winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet building to 4 to 5 feet in the afternoon. Areas of dense fog with visibility 1 nm or less early in the morning...then areas of fog in the late morning and afternoon.

Tuesday Night: Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet after midnight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the evening...then showers and thunderstorms after midnight.

Wednesday: Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet then 3 feet in the afternoon.

Wednesday Night: North winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

Thursday: East winds around 10 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the afternoon.

Thursday Night: Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east after midnight. Seas 1 foot.

Friday: East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Friday Night: East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Saturday: Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

...Tide Data...

Tuesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:

Low:        9:51a.m.    10:24p.m.               
High:       2:30a.m.      4:41p.m.                


...Toledo Bend Pool Level...

    168.58'


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...


Monday, January 28, 2013



Low:                64
Normal Low:  43
Record Low:   21-1897
High:               76
Normal High:  62
Record High:   81-1912

Rainfall

Today:                              0.00"
Month to Date:               11.32"
Normal Month to Date:   4.76"
Year to Date:                 11.32"
Normal Year to Date:     4.76"
Record:                           3.00"- 1916

Significant Weather Observed:

None

One Year Ago (2012)

Low:     46
High:    69
Rain:    0.00"

5 Years Ago (2008)

Low:    35
High:   67
Rain:   0.00"


10 Years Ago (2003)

Low:    45
High:   68
Rain:    0.02"


Sunrise Tuesday:   7:05a.m.
Sunset  Tuesday:   5:48p.m.


Hunting Times:

6:35a.m.-6:18p.m.


...Lunar Table...

Last Quarter- Sunday February 3

New Moon- Sunday February 10

First Quarter- Sunday February 17

Full Moon- Monday February 25


Have a great Tuesday, & stay tuned for more on the impinging severe weather & God Bless!
-DM-

Friday, January 25, 2013

Unseasonable Warmth Through the Weekend...

Thursday, January 24, 2013

Click below for the latest version of the video blog. Be sure to scroll down for the complete text form of the blog. 

video




SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Don't think we should brag too much here in SW Louisiana, but it might be hard not to when you compare our above normal warmth to the bitterly cold Arctic air mass across the Northern 1/3 of the country. This Arctic air may eventually reach SW Louisiana down the road, but not in the next few days. We do have some changes to discuss with our weather, however, so let's get to it.

It has been a day of generally overcast conditions and continued unseasonable warmth. Daytime highs generally reached the lower 70s across much of the area. We did manage to have a decent amount of sunshine in the mid-late afternoon hours. Morning fog was not as much a factor this morning as it was on Wednesday thanks to stronger boundary layer mixing via surface winds. A weakening late January cold front is in transit at press time, and this front will continue to decay as it approaches this forecast area during the day Friday. For tonight, look for a quiet night for the most part. We will deal with re-development of the low cloud (stratus) deck & also have to mention the prospect of fog once again. Although, I do believe it will be more like it was this morning, and not be excessively dense in most areas. Sure, there will be some areas where it is more foggy than others, but for the most part tonight will not be prime conditions for fog formation. The unseasonable warmth will continue as well as the surface flow continues to be straight off the Gulf waters. Overnight lows will generally be closer to what our average daytime high is for this time of year....upper 50s to lower 60s. Friday will continue to offer much of the same conditions with highs reaching the low to mid 70s once again as the weak cold front continues to only slowly sag Southward while the weakening continues. (frontlysis). I suppose I should mention a very slight chance of some sprinkles or a light shower, but no big deal.

The final weekend of January 2013 will be a decent one, probably the 2nd best weekend so far this year. The weakening front will wash out virtually overhead, but will do little to affect our way. Perhaps, there might be one or two small, brief showers Saturday, but at this point I believe the chances are too negligible to even mention in the actual forecast. Cloud cover may be rather prevalent especially the first half of the day before somewhat drier air moves in to scour out the cloudiness. That should set the stage for an afternoon filled with plenty of sunshine & a just a slight reduction in maximum temperatures. Highs will be back to the mid 60s to around 70. Sunday be the reverse of Saturday, meaning drier air will be in place in the morning before the return flow kicks up again in earnest, bringing back low-level moisture & cloud cover for the afternoon, but we remain dry. So, your outdoor weekend plans look just fine! Sunday's temperatures will continue to be above the norm for late January with low to mid 70s for highs afternoon a morning start around the 50 degree threshold. There's always a lot to do around here this time of year with Mardi Gras getting revved up & crawfish season in full force now. Of course, it is a great time to be in Louisiana, and we will have a lot of visitors to the state over the next couple weeks with the Super Bowl & Mardi Gras. Hopefully, Mother Nature will cooperate the whole time.

That would not appear to be so as we head into next week, as it stands right now anyway. Model discrepancy is wreaking havoc on trying to forecast with any accuracy beyond about Monday really. I believe it is safe to go ahead and add small rain chances to the forecast for Monday as deeper Gulf moisture pulls in over the area, while the next trough advances & deepens out West. It certainly seems almost a certainty at this point, that the Jet Stream will be digging once again, and unlike this week, it will be digging to our West again. The unseasonably warm late January weather will continue to reside over SW Louisiana, until we get the trough to advance into and past our area. The active Jet Stream will dig to the SE and the previously active Subtropical Jet Stream will get energized once again by Tuesday & Wednesday. This will result in short waves (disturbances) developing and rotating through the area in advance of the main trough. This will increase rain chances for Tuesday & especially Wednesday. Models diverge on how strong the system will be & the timing of it as well. For now, a blend is perhaps the best course of action. There is certainly a chance we could have some strong to severe thunderstorms on Wednesday as the latest cold front swings through the area, but this is something that will need further fine tuning given the large discrepancies in the models. I will not mention this at this time, and will reserve that right to later forecasts after the weekend. Rainfall totals are in question as well. One model has generally had a wet bias this winter, while the other has a dry bias, and that is presumed to be the case once again. This doesn't look anything like the previous rainfall event between the 8th and 16th, but it could produce a 1-2" rain across the area. Temperatures will remain in the 70s for highs through Wednesday, and lows may climb into the lower 60s by Tuesday & Wednesday with plenty of low-level moisture in place resulting in high dew points across the area. Fog will also be possible each morning Monday-Wednesday, but there looks to be enough atmospheric mixing to keep it from being a major issue.

Model divergence rearing its ugly head at the end of the period presents a somewhat questionable forecast for the end of the period. Some model output suggests the mid-week front slowing down & hanging around into Thursday which might keep rain chances going, however, other & what I feel are the most reliable models show the front clearing the area Wednesday afternoon with a much cooler & drier air mass spilling into the region by Wednesday Night. This would set us up for a quiet end to the month of January on Thursday. Temperatures are also in question. The pattern favors at least some modified Arctic air invading the region, however, models don't really show anything cooler than we've already experienced this winter. In light of this, I will once again blend the forecast. That is, I will reflect a return to below normal temperatures, but not as cold as it could potentially be. Hard to believe it will February a week from tomorrow, and then the Super Bowl next weekend. An early glance at the forecast shows dry but cold weather in place with the potential for some freezing temperatures, but that of course, is still beyond the scope of the 7 day forecast & is considered to be hogwash at this time. I don't believe we are done with winter around here; we typically need to make it to the 2nd half of February before we can turn the corner towards Spring. In closing, a little climatology note regarding rainfall...The all-time record rainfall for the month of January at Lake Charles is 14.29" in 1991, and so far this year we have received officially 11.32" of rain. We could still break the monthly record depending on how much additional rain we receive next week. The good news is at least, we have had a week now with no rain to give our rivers & other flooded areas a chance to dry out. Many areas have received over 15" of rain this month. I will have a summary on that in the coming days.


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:

LCH  57/73  55/68  51/71   0 10 10 10 0 0
CAM  61/68  62/70 58/68   0 10 10 10 0 0 
LFT   55/74  56/68  50/72   0 10 10 10 0 0
ARA  60/73  57/69  52/72  0 10 10 10 0 0
BPT   60/75  54/71  53/73   0 10 10 10 0 0
JAS   54/72   50/67  48/70  0 10 10 10 0 0 
AEX  53/73  50/66  47/68   0 20 20 10 0 0
POE  53/73  50/66  47/69   0 20 20 10 0 0



Tonight...Partly to Mostly Cloudy w/ Patchy Fog after midnight. Low 57. South wind 5-10 mph. 

Friday...Early Morning Patchy Fog otherwise Partly to Mostly Cloudy & Unseasonably Warm. High 73. SSW wind 10-15 mph.

Friday Night....Mostly Cloudy & just slightly cooler. Low 55. SW wind 5-10 mph, becoming West 10 mph toward sunrise.

Saturday...Partly Cloudy to Mostly Sunny. High 68. NW wind 10-15 mph becoming NE in the afternoon.

Saturday Night...Clear. Low 51. Light East wind. 

Sunday...Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy. High 71. SE wind 10-15 mph.

Sunday Night...Partly Cloudy w/ areas of fog developing after midnight. Low 58. SE wind 5-10 mph.

Monday...Areas of Fog early, then Mostly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers mainly during the afternoon. High 72. SSE wind 10-15 mph.

Monday Night...Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers. Low 60. SSE wind 10-15 mph.

Tuesday...Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers & a few thunderstorms. High 74. SSE wind 15-20 mph & gusty.



Friday 1/21/11 Daily Planner

6a.m.

Weather: Partly to Mostly Cloudy w/ Areas of Fog











Temp:57
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 6
W.C. N/A

9a.m.

Weather: Partly To Mostly Cloudy











Temp: 62
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW 11
W.C. N/A

Noon

Weather: Partly to Mostly Cloudy











Temp: 68
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSW 12
W.C.:N/A

3p.m.

Weather: Partly to Mostly Cloudy 
Temp: 73
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSW 14
W.C.:N/A

6p.m.

Weather: Cloudy











Temp: 70
Rain: 10%
Wind: SW 7
W.C.: N/A

9p.m.

Weather: Mostly Cloudy











Temp: 64
Rain: 10%
Wind: SW 8
W.C.: N/A


Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Friday
1-25-13











Low:  57
High: 73
Rain:  10%
Wind: SSW 10-15
W.C.: N/A


Saturday
1-26-13
Low:  55
High: 68
Rain: 10%
Wind: NW/NE1 0-15
W.C.: N/A


Sunday
1-27-13











Low:  51
High: 71
Rain:  0%
Wind: SE 10-15
W.C.: N/A


Monday
1-28-13











Low:  58
High: 72
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10-15
W.C.: N/A


Tuesday
1-29-13











Low:   61
High:  74
Rain:  30%
Wind: SSE 15-20
W.C.:  N/A


Wednesday
1-30-13
Low:  62
High: 70
Rain: 60%
Wind: SSE/NNW 15-25
W.C.: N/A


Thursday
1-31-13









Low:  35
High: 54
Rain:  0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
W.C.: 25-35


...Marine Forecast...


Tonight...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 feet.

Friday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 feet.

Friday Night...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Areas of fog.

Saturday...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Areas of fog early in the morning.

Saturday Night...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 foot building to 2 feet after midnight.

Sunday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

Sunday Night...Southeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

Monday...Southeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

Monday Night...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers.

Tuesday...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms

...Tide Data...

Friday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass

Low:            7:44a.m.         8:52p.m.      
High:                         3:44p.m.


...Toledo Bend Pool Level...

    169.21'


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...


Thursday, January 24, 2013


Low:                48
Normal Low:   43
Record Low:    12-1948
High:                72
Normal High:   62
Record High:    85-1914

Rainfall

Today:                             0.00"
Month to Date:              11.32"
Normal Month to Date:   4.15"
Year to Date:                 11.32"
Normal Year to Date:      4.15"
Record:                           6.60"- 1915

Sensible Weather Observed:

Fog


One Year Ago (2012)

Low:      54
High:     66
Rain:     0.21"


5 Years Ago (2008)

Low:     42
High:    49
Rain:    0.52"

10 Years Ago (2003)

Low:     23
High:    42
Rain:    0.00"


Sunrise Friday:   7:07a.m.
Sunset  Friday:   5:44p.m.


Hunting Times:

6:37a.m.-6:14p.m.


...Lunar Table...

Full Moon- Saturday January 26

Last Quarter- Sunday February 3

New Moon- Sunday February 10

First Quarter- Sunday February 17


Have a great Friday & God Bless!
-DM-

Sunday, October 21, 2012

Tranquil Weather for Final Full Week of October...

Sunday, October 21, 2012

Click below for the latest version of the video blog. Be sure to scroll down for the complete text form of the blog.

video


SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Before I get to the weather, the usual business at hand, I want to make a brief, exciting personal announcement! As you already know, I tied the knot earlier this year, and it's been an amazing 8 months already with beautiful, smoking hot wife! However, that's not all...God has been so good, and has blessed us more than words could ever describe! I am proud to announce that Lucy & I are expecting our first child in May. Lucy is about 12 weeks pregnant, and little baby is progressing quite nicely so far. I will keep all of you updated as we go along. Please keep us in your prayers & thoughts as we walk this amazing journey & prepare to bring this new life into the world & become parents. Now onto the forecast...


SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The weather for the last few days has been as beautiful as my wife! One of those two will not be nearly as beautiful as we go through the work week, and it's not my wife. The controlling area of high pressure is already exiting stage right, and we have seen an increase in low-level moisture on this Sunday. Morning lows were about 6-12 degrees warmer on average across the area this morning. We were in the upper 40s on Saturday, and readings were near 60 here at Lake Charles this morning. After a cloud-free Friday & Saturday, we have seen the return of some fairweather cumulus clouds this afternoon, but all in all it has been a beautiful Sunday as well. Sundays are always more beautiful when the Saints win! It has been seasonably warm with highs in the lower 80s on the average. A dry pattern will continue overall for much of the week with no real weather systems to speak of. We will retain an onshore flow as surface high pressures will be absent across the area, but remain in place aloft. This means that we will see temperatures return to normal to above normal for late October. Morning lows will be in the 60s while afternoon highs remain in the low to mid 80s as the Gulf waters greatly influence our weather. Late night/early morning patchy fog is certainly possible in this pattern, but given the relatively dry ground, I don't foresee anything of significance to even mention in the official forecast. Skies will generally be Partly Cloudy each day through at least Thursday.

Changes are expected as we round out the work week, and more specifically next weekend. However, this far out there is always a question of timing and to what extent? Friday should certainly see a more substantial increase in cloud cover, and surface winds will likely increase as well. This, as a strong & deepening trough will be advancing out of the Rocky Mountain region. This will further enhance moisture across the forecast area, and at this time it appears that it is necessary to insert a small chance of rain for the Friday time frame. However, upper level ridging will largely keep the atmosphere capped, so I don't expect much more than just some isolated & brief shower activity mainly due to streaming Gulf moisture. The advancing trough will set the stage for the strongest cold front of the season to make its way through the forecast area on Saturday. Like its predecessor, this front doesn't look to be a major rain producer across the area at this time. Better moisture & convergence should be in place in the vicinity of the front, and at that time we is when we will likely see our best chance for showers & thunderstorms. The modes differ on the timing of the front, with some showing an arrival as early as Friday, while others holding the front back until Saturday middle of the day. Given the strength of this front, the faster solution may end up winning out, but for now I will take the middle of the road solution reflecting frontal passage overnight Friday into Saturday. At this time, I believe the best chance for shower & thunderstorm activity will come well after all of Friday Night's important High School Football games.

Behind the front, much colder air will begin to infiltrate the region replacing the warm & humid air mass that will engulf the region in the pre-frontal environment. Strong Northerly winds will usher in a fresh, continental air mass & it promises to be the coolest air so far this season. Models once again vary from run to run on just how cool (or cold depending on what is cold to you) it will be. The timing issues will become very important because it is McNeese homecoming Saturday, and of course, we don't want rain for the game. There is also some model output that suggest a more shallow air mass which would translate to some form of overrunning moisture in the post-frontal environment. If that were to transpire, we would likely not get rid of the cloud cover & also have to keep rain chances in the forecast for the balance of the day on Saturday & maybe even for Sunday. However, given the current pattern this fall, my forecast will not reflect any such idea of that scenario right now. High pressure will build in & conditions will improve during the course of the day Saturday. It will remain rather windy though, and CAA will offset daytime heating as the sun returns later int he day. Morning lows will likely still be in the 60s on Saturday morning depending on the timing of the front, but if it comes in sooner, then 50s are likely for much of the area. With CAA in place, highs will still struggle to reach the mid 70s. It should be on the chilly side for the remainder of the weekend, just in time for the homecoming game. Lows on Saturday night should be well down in the 40s...let's call it mid 40s along I-10 as skies clear and winds decrease. Sunday looks beautiful with lots of sunshine as a mix of Canadian & Pacific air will be in place via a building ridge of high pressure. Highs may barely reach 70 Sunday, but may just well only reach the 60s for most of the area depending on just how much cold air moves in. Some of the coldest locations may dip into the upper 30s for morning lows for the first time this season in about week. The coolest air mass of the season will hang around in the waning days of October with modification as we head towards Halloween.


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH   64/85  66/85  66/86  0 0 0 0 0 0
CAM  70/82  70/82  71/83  0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT    63/84  64/86  65/86  0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA   64/84  66/85  67/85  0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT    66/86  67/87  68/86  0 0 0 0 0 0
JAS     59/83  62/85  65/85  0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX   58/82  61/84  63/85  0 0 0 0 0 0
POE    59/82  62/85  64/85  0 0 0 0 0 0


Tonight...Clear. Low 64. Light South wind.

Monday...Mostly Sunny. High 85. SE wind 5-10 mph.

Monday Night...Clear. Low 66. Light SE wind.

Tuesday...Partly Cloudy. High 85. SE wind 5-10 mph.

Tuesday Night...Clear. Low 66. Light SE wind.

Wednesday...Partly Cloudy. High 86. SE wind 10-15 mph.

Wednesday Night...Clear. Low 66. Light SE wind.

Thursday...Partly Cloudy. High 85. SE wind 10-15 mph.

Thursday Night...Clear. Low 67. SE wind 5 mph.

Friday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy & Breezy w/ a 20% chance of a shower. High 84. SSE wind 15-20 mph & gusty.


Monday 10/22/12 Daily Planner

6a.m.

Weather: Clear













Temp: 64
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 2

9a.m.

Weather: Sunny









Temp: 72
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 5

Noon

Weather: Mostly Sunny


Temp: 80
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 8


3p.m.

Weather: Mostly Sunny


Temp: 85
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 10

6p.m.

Weather: Sunny


Temp: 78
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 7


9p.m.

Weather: Clear











Temp: 70
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 3


Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Monday
10-22-12









Low:  64
High: 85
Rain:  0%
Wind: SE 5-10


Tuesday
10-23-12
Low:  66
High: 85
Rain:  0%
Wind: SE 5-10


Wednesday
10-24-12
Low:  66
High: 86
Rain:  0%
Wind: SE 5-10


Thursday
10-25-12











Low:  66
High: 85
Rain:  0%
Wind: SE 10-15


Friday
10-26-12











Low:  67
High: 84
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 15-20
 

Saturday
10-27-12











Low: 62
High:73
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSW/NNW 15-25



Sunday
10-28-12









Low:  45
High: 70
Rain:  0%
Wind: NNW 10-15



...Tropical Update...

Of course, it is still officially hurricane season, but I would say that we have certainly turned the corner here, and have made it past the time when anything would threaten us. However, just for the sake of forecasting, let's take a look and see what's going on.

There are currently two areas of interest. One lies in the Central Caribbean to the South Hispaniola and Jamaica. This area is festering in the warm waters of the Central Caribbean, and has been nearly stationary or moved only slowly Westward in the past couple of days. Environmental conditions appear conducive for tropical development within the next day or two. This system will move little through Monday with only a slow Westward nudge expected through mid-week. The National Hurricane Center gives this area a 70% chance of development through Tuesday. Heavy rains and life-threatening flash floods will be possible across Jamaica, Eastern Cuba, and Hispaniola.

Also, interaction between a tropical wave and an upper level low is generating an area of showers & thunderstorms across the Central Atlantic about 750 miles ENE of the Lesser Antilles. This system is an a favorable area for further development at this time, but conditions will likely become less favorable for development by the middle of the week. This system is given a 40% chance of development through Tuesday. It will move off to the NNW at around 10 mph.

The next two names on the list for the 2012 season are Sandy and Tony. If either one of these systems develop, they will have no impact on SW Louisiana.

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not anticipated through Tuesday.


...Marine Forecast...

Tonight... Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet building to 2 to 3 feet after midnight.

Monday: Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the afternoon.

Monday Night: Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 3 feet after midnight.

Tuesday: Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Tuesday Night: Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet building to 1 to 3 feet after midnight.

Wednesday: Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet.

Wednesday Night: Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 3 feet after midnight.

Thursday: Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet.

Thursday Night: Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

Friday: Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.


...Tide Data...

Monday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:

Low:        5:07a.m.    3:53p.m.               
High:       8:00a.m.                 


...Toledo Bend Pool Level...

    168.00'


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...


Sunday, October 21, 2012



Low:                61
Normal Low:   58
Record Low:   32-1917
High:               86
Normal High:  80
Record High:   92-1927

Rainfall

Today:                             0.00"
Month to Date:               0.42"
Normal Month to Date:  3.17"
Year to Date:                 64.58"
Normal Year to Date:    46.65"
Record:                           1.21"- 2006

Significant Weather Observed:

None

One Year Ago (2011)

Low:     46
High:    80
Rain:     0.00"

5 Years Ago (2007)

Low:    60
High:   85
Rain:    0.16"


10 Years Ago (2002)

Low:     63
High:    68
Rain:    0.70"


Sunrise Monday:   7:20a.m.
Sunset  Monday:   6:34p.m.


Hunting Times:

6:50a.m.-7:04p.m.


...Lunar Table...

First Quarter- Monday October 22

Full Moon-    Monday October 29

Last Quarter- Wednesday November 7

New Moon- Tuesday November 13


Have a great Monday & God Bless!
-DM-

Tuesday, August 28, 2012

Isaac Eyes SE Louisiana...



Monday, August 27, 2012

***Tropical Weather Mode.***

We remain in tropical weather mode until Isaac is out of our hair.


It is not necessary for me to wax eloquently as I did last night due to time constraints, and the fact that is a more certain forecast. However, it is still prudent at this juncture to post some storm thoughts & tidbits. See the video for more details.



video


There is good news all around tonight. Isaac has not become a hurricane yet. We have a more definitive forecast for Isaac, and lastly only very minimal effects are expected across SW Louisiana. I would almost dub Isaac as "Irritating Isaac." It is astonishing that Isaac hasn't become a hurricane yet based on some of the Recon data & especially given the low pressure reading of 979 mb. (equal to a high end category 1 or low end category 2). However, when you look at Isaac on satellite representation it isn't as big of a surprise that he hasn't climbed to the next step on the tropical ladder yet. It is still a very disorganized, ragged, & lopsided storm. This is illustrated by the strongest convection & strongest winds currently being found on the S & W side of the center of circulation. This is the complete opposite of what you normally expect. Isaac has had to fight off many mitigating factors since its inception last week. Dry air intrusion seems to be the main issue at this point, and it is clearly evident that it is being fed into the center of circulation as it has been choked off every time it tries to get going.

Certainly, we are not complaining about the fact that Isaac is a weaker storm by any means. However, Isaac will still be a force to be reckoned with for our neighbors in SE Louisiana. Isaac is forecast to make landfall late Tuesday night or early Wednesday as a category 1 storm with winds around 90 mph. This is down from the previous forecast which said 100 mph (category 2). I am starting to wonder if Isaac reaching hurricane status at all. Surely, you would think that the winds will ultimately catch up to the pressure, but if the dry air entrainment continues then it just might not. The other thing to note this evening is the reduction in forward speed. That was predicted to occur. Isaac is moving into an area that is between two surface highs, and so steering currents may collapse for a couple of days before a trough digs in & lifts out the remnants of Isaac. The storm's forward speed is around 10 mph to the NW at this time. This is compared to around 15 mph, 24 hours ago. The storm is generally moving in the aforementioned NW direction, but it has wavered between WNW and NW for the better part of the past 24 hours. This forward motion should continue until landfall before it begins to make that right hand turn and lift out as it becomes extratropical over the Mid Mississippi Valley in the latter half of the work week.

The intensity at landfall is still a big question mark. I will forecast Isaac to become a hurricane, but the current 90 mph shown by the NHC might even be a stretch at this point. However, Isaac could just as quickly ramp up to a category 2 if it becomes more right side up & symmetrical. The models were onto something when they all showed nothing stronger than a low end category 3 with most of them showing category 2 at the strongest. SE Louisiana remains the target for a direct hit with landfall likely to occur in the vicinity of the Mouth of the Mississippi River late Tuesday night or early Wednesday. I believe landfall will be in generally the same area, I see no reason to deviate from the forecast the NHC has laid out, however, I still couldn't rule out a landfall as far West as Morgan City, but between the Mouth of the Mississippi River & Grand Isle seems more logical at this point. This means SW Louisiana will only experience fringe effects on the "good side" of the storm. What does this mean for our neighbors in SE Louisiana from New Orleans and the Northshore region? Let me briefly discuss their weather before I focus on ours for just a moment or two. Isaac is a large storm, and tropical storm force winds will be felt over a large area, however, it he reaches hurricane status, the hurricane force winds will likely be confined to very small area right around the center of circulation. Based on the current track, hurricane conditions are expected for a good portion of the Southshore area of Lake Pontchartrain & the Mississippi Delta itself. The official calls for 75 mph winds with the eye or center of circulation passing near New Orleans Wednesday morning. Isaac will weaken to a tropical storm, provided he does reach hurricane status. He will weaken regardless of what intensity he is beginning shortly after landfall. The storm will then continue a slow NW heading towards Baton Rouge and they should see 60-70 mph winds with higher gusts. Winds will gradually lessen as the circulation moves into Western Mississippi. Aside from the wind, heavy, flooding rains will be the issue with as much as 8-15" of rain expected across all of SE Louisiana East of the center of circulation. Isolated areas could see 20" of rain or more. Spin off tornadoes will also be a good bet along & to the right of this center. A storm surge over 10' will be possible along the SE Louisiana coastline through Coastal Mississippi. An area totally devastated by Katrina, and is still re-building in many spots. It is ironic that Conditions will greatly improve by Thursday.

For SW Louisiana, winds will only gradually increase on Tuesday as the storm approaches the coastline. We'll have an offshore wind, so we will have no issue with storm surge it would appear. Winds will be from the N to NE at start at around 10 mph gradually increasing to 20-25 mph during the afternoon. The outermost rain bands will start to move across South Louisiana Tuesday afternoon as well, so look for rain chances to start to increase as well. Overnight winds increase to 30-35 mph with occasional gusts into tropical storm range (40-45 mph) as more squalls move across the region in the NW quadrant of the storm. It appears that our strongest winds will occur during the day Wednesday as Isaac makes his closest approach to the Lake Area. Sustained winds should be in the 35 mph range with gusts possibly up to 50 mph in the strongest squalls, but sustained tropical storm force are not expected in the Lake Area. Lafayette has a better chance of experiencing sustained tropical storm force winds due to their closer proximity to the center of circulation. Rainfall totals on our side of the state will be considerably less. Instead of the 8-15" East of the Mississippi, I'm talking about 1-4" depending on where you are across the area. The tornado threat should be non-existent for us barring any unforeseen jogs to the West of the current forecast track. Winds will subside Wednesday night into Thursday as Isaac spins down to our NE. Rain chances will continue high into Thursday before normalcy returns to South Louisiana for Friday & the all important Labor Day weekend. All watches/warnings issued on Monday morning remain in place until further notice. The Lake Charles area is under a Tropical Storm Watch & the Lafayette area is under a Tropical Storm Warning & Hurricane Watch. The Hurricane Watch extends from Morgan City, LA to the Alabama/Florida border.

Tonight, I will just post the latest advisory & a satellite picture. Models are nearly useless now since we are inside of 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Isaac

Monday, August 27, 2012

...Isaac Trying to Become a Hurricane off the SE coast of Louisiana...

Latitude: 27.1 N
Longitude: 87.0 W

This position is about 440 miles ESE of Lake Charles & 190 miles SE of the Mouth of the Mississippi River.

Winds: 70 mph w/ higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected on Tuesday before Isaac interacts with land by late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Isaac is forecast to become a category 1 hurricane sometime Tuesday.

Moving; NW @ 10 mph. This general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday, though a reduction in forward speed is expected to occur until after landfall.

Pressure: 28.91" or 979 mb.




Finally, to wrap it up...here is my forecast in text form only through Labor Day.


*Tropical Storm Watch in effect.*

Tonight...Increasing High Clouds. Low 73. NE wind 10 mph.

Tuesday...Mostly Cloudy & Breezy with a 30% chance of showers & thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 91. NE wind 20-25 mph & gusty.

Tuesday Night...Tropical Storm Conditions. Mostly Cloudy & Windy with occasional squalls. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Low 76. NE wind 25-35 mph with gusts to 45 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 60%.

Wednesday...Tropical Storm Conditions. Cloudy w/ tropical squalls off and on through the day. Rain heavy at times. High 87. North wind 30-40 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. Chance of rain 70%.

Wednesday Night...Cloudy & Windy with off and on squalls through the night. Rain heavy at times. Low 75. NW wind 25-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph, gradually decreasing through the night. Chance of rain 60%.

Thursday...Mostly Cloudy & Windy with a 60% chance of showers & thunderstorms. High 88. SW wind 15-20 mph & gusty.

Thursday Night...Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers & thunderstorms. Low 76. South wind 10 mph.

Friday...Partly Cloudy with a 20-30% chance of afternoon showers & thunderstorms. High 92. SSE wind 10-15 mph.

Friday Night...Mostly Clear. Low 75. Light SE wind. Just a bit humid for High School Football.

Saturday...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers & thunderstorms. Hot for the first weekend of college football. High 94. SE wind 10 mph.

Saturday Night...Partly Cloudy. Low 76. Light SE wind.

Sunday...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers & thunderstorms during the afternoon. High 93. SSE wind 10 mph.

Sunday Night...Mostly Clear. Low 77. Light SE wind.

Labor Day...Partly Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers & thunderstorms. No worries for your Labor Day plans! High 93. SSE wind 10 mph.

That's all for now, keep your eyes on Isaac! My next update here will be after 10p.m. Tuesday.
Have a great night & God bless!

Sunday, August 26, 2012

Eyes on Isaac...

Sunday, August 26, 2012


***Tropical Weather Mode.***


This blog will take on a bit different format than you are accustomed to seeing, and it will remain this way until further notice. This blog will provide comprehensive & detailed information regarding Tropical Storm Isaac. It also includes a video, so be sure to click the link below to watch that. I will also link it on facebook. See the discussion & my official forecast below.




video
















You always hear me say it when there's a storm threatening the Gulf..."can't sound the all clear just yet, and we'll continue to monitor the storm until it makes landfall". Boy, does that ring true this go-around! If you have been following along with me since Isaac's inception late last week, then you know it was originally expected to make landfall at mid-week in the Florida Panhandle. Well, my how things have changed (or at least we expect them to based on the current prognostications from the models.) Sure, a Florida landfall is still well within the realm of possibility, but what seems more likely is a hit closer to home. How close? When and what intensity? These are the questions we will answer with this discussion.

I hope everyone has indeed enjoyed this last weekend of August, but also heeded the advice I gave on Friday to keep one eye on Isaac. On this Sunday night, it is time to become vigilant but at the same time not panic in any way, shape, or form. We have been through this before, and this will certainly NOT be anything like what we endured 7 years ago, and probably not even 4 years ago. Every storm is a different entity, and Isaac has certainly proved that. He was originally forecast to be a hurricane on Thursday or Friday while approaching Hispaniola, but it never made it. Well, it still hasn't as of the 4p.m. advisory, however, that could change within the next 24 hours. The current satellite representation shows that Isaac is trying to get better organized with convection trying to wrap all the way around the center as it pulls away from the Florida Keys and enters the SE Gulf of Mexico. It will be interesting to watch to see if Isaac can get his act together to even reach hurricane status. Regardless, the system in whatever capacity it is has to go somewhere. The National Hurricane Center has traditionally been conservative with their forecasts, and anytime an adjustment is made it is typically done gradually. I think this is generally smart, just in case models zip back into the original thinking, It is always key to hone in on consistency with forecast models, especially when dealing with tropical entities.

Isaac still has some things going against him that are so far, thankfully, keeping him from strengthening much. The forward speed, dry air intrusion, and some Southerly wind shear have all been impeding on Isaac's development on his journey through the tropical Atlantic thus far. However, as he pulls away from the Florida Keys overnight, he will certainly be in an environment that will be more than favorable for further strengthening. Most of the Gulf of Mexico is an area of high oceanic heating content right now, though not on the levels as it has been in some previous years. Thus, the official forecast calls for strengthening & we should have Hurricane Isaac sometime late Monday. Modest strengthening is the key word here it would appear. The intensity forecast calls for a category 2 at landfall, and this is plausible. However, forecasting intensity is always a harrowing challenge, and it could be stronger than that if all the ingredients come together right over Isaac. It could also just as easily stay a weaker system, and only be a category 1 at landfall just the same. As important as it is to try and figure out intensity, it is more important that you don't focus just on the black line in the official forecast. This is a large storm, and it will affect a wide area regardless of where it goes.

Speaking of where it goes....this is looking more like a Louisiana storm. This should be the state's most significant storm since Hurricane Ike & Gustav in 2008, even though Ike actually made landfall in Texas. You remember what it did to SW Louisiana. The latest official forecast track shows landfall near Pass Christian or Bay St. Louis, MS early Wednesday morning as a category 2 storm with 100 mph winds. However, I believe, given the recent trends of the most reliable models the official track will be shunted further West & ultimately end up somewhere in Louisiana. It seems most likely to me that landfall will occur late Tuesday/early Wednesday between the Mouth of the Mississippi River & Morgan City. SE Louisiana seems like the bullseye at this point. Though, I should mention here, while the most reliable American model (GFS) is a left-biased model, it has also been the best performing model this season & can't be ignored. The GFS track shows a formidable hurricane approaching the SE coast near Grand Isle or Barataria Bay Wednesday morning, and then sliding NW essentially paralleling the coast, and eventually moving completely inland over SW Louisiana with the circulation center passing near or over Lake Charles Wednesday evening. If that tracks verifies, then the Lake Area will certainly experience strong tropical storm conditions, and depending on how fast the storm moves & how fast it weakens, hurricane conditions are possible. On the other hand, the European model (ECWMF) has landfall in the vicinity of Mobile on Wednesday & as a stronger category 3 or 4 storm. One historical note here, Wednesday is the 29th, and that is the date of expected landfall. It will be 7 years to the day since Hurricane Katrina completely devastated SE Louisiana and the Mississippi Gulf Coast. The NHC has basically taken an average of these models & split it down the middle with landfall in the aforementioned area. The worst of the weather with Isaac should be from Lower Acadiana on towards New Orleans. Keep in mind, the forecast that I produce below will be subject to change. I would be surprised if the forecast track isn't shifted further Westward tonight, and I would also expect additional watches/warnings to be issued either with the 10p.m. advisory or the 4a.m. advisory. As it stands right now, Hurricane Warnings are hoisted from Morgan City to Destin, FL. An inland Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Baton Rouge Metropolitan Area as well.

Now, I want to briefly discuss what is going on here...As in why the big shift in the models? We have been under the influence of high pressure for the better part of the last now. It has come and gone all summer, as we have been back and forth between very wet or very dry. Our original thinking was that a late summer trough digging into the Mid-West would dip down far enough along the East Coast, and tug Isaac Northward towards the Florida Panhandle with the ridge holding firm across the Northern Gulf. However, the other possible scenario was that the trough wouldn't dig as far, and the ridge would begin to weaken across the Northern Gulf, and if the system was weaker it may result in a further Westward track. Last week, all models were consistently opting for the first scenario, so that forecast seemed logical. However, models begin to diverge at the end of the week leaving us with an unusually high risk of uncertain even with all the meteorological knowledge and understanding. At first, I was rather reluctant to shy away from the Florida Panhandle solution, but when the consistency returned on Saturday with the models shifting Westward there simply was no choice. I feel we are getting close to the time now when looking at models won't matter so much. It will soon by just a matter of going by storm behavior to try and nail down this forecast.

My official forecast will call for Tropical Storm conditions to be experienced across all of SW Louisiana with hurricane conditions possible towards Lafayette & New Iberia. Besides wind, rain will be the issue & whoever is to the right (East) of the center of circulation (eye) will likely receive upwards of a foot of rain, perhaps more in the Tuesday-Thursday time frame. There will be a storm surge as well to the right of the center & let's not forget about the tornado threat as well. Tornadoes are always possible with a tropical cyclone on the North and East side. Initially, there won't be much weather at all in the Lake Area as we will remain on the better side of the storm. It wouldn't be until Wednesday morning that we would see any effects, maybe some extreme outer rain bands Tuesday evening or overnight Tuesday. Winds will noticeably increase as the day progresses Tuesday, but we'll have an offshore wind, so the air will actually be a little drier. North winds around 20-30 mph are expected for Tuesday, with winds increasing into the 35-50 mph range for Wednesday based on the current forecast. As I have said, I do believe they'll be a bit higher than that in the Lake Area, but I will play it conservative for now based on the current NHC forecast. Also, 2-5" of rain is possible across SW Louisiana, a little more towards Acadiana. The tornado threat may be non-existent here unless something like the GFS track comes to fruition. Tide levels will likely rise at least 1-2', but surge should not be much of an issue at this time in Cameron Parish based on this forecast. All in all this will be a close call, if it doesn't end up being a direct hit. I will have my official forecast outlined for you shortly, but first it is prudent to look at some model guidance here. I also want to include the latest satellite & radar data, and then I will conclude with the official forecast track from the NHC.


Let's first take a look at the latest satellite imagery. There you see Isaac off the SW Florida Coast.



You can see the center of circulation on the Key West, FL radar. A link is provided.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BYX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes


Here are the latest tropical model runs.







We have the new advisory as of 10p.m. hot off the presses from the National Hurricane Center. As I expected, it has shifted further West once again, but still not as far as I think it will ultimately be. It just represents the trend. The official track takes Isaac inland between Grand Isle and Buras and right over New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain and then over the Northshore into Mississippi as a decaying storm Thursday. Landfall is still forecast to be late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning as a category 2 storm. Notice, that everyone from Lake Charles Eastward is now in the cone of error. There has been no change to the Hurricane Warnings as of yet. Here are the specifics.

Tropical Storm Isaac...10p.m. Sunday, August 26, 2012

Latitude: 24.2 N

Longitude: 82.9 W

This is about 75 miles WSW of Key West, FL & roughly 605 miles SE of New Orleans.

*A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Morgan City to Destin, FL. Watches/Warnings will likely be extended Westward & more than likely include SW Louisiana early Monday. (the 4.a.m. advisory).

Winds: 65 mph w/ higher gusts. Isaac has strengthened little today, but a slow strengthening process is expected to begin Monday & Isaac may become a category 1 hurricane late Monday. Isaac is forecast to be a category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds at landfall. Tropical storm force winds extend outward to 205 miles mainly to the NE of the center. Tropical storm force winds are still being experienced across the Florida Keys & lower South Florida.

Movement: WNW @ 14 mph. The WNW motion should continue through tonight into Monday w/ a gradual turn to the NW expected during the next 24 hours along w/ a reduction in forward speed. It will approach the Northern Gulf Coast on Tuesday with landfall expected likely somewhere in coastal Louisiana late Tuesday or early Wednesday.

Pressure: 993 mb. or 29.32"

Tropical Storm force winds will approach the Louisiana coast late Monday & hurricane conditions will begin sometime on Tuesday spreading NW across South Louisiana it would appear Tuesday night into Wednesday.





Now, based on all of this here is my official forecast.

*This forecast is highly subject to change.*

Tonight...Mostly Clear. Low 74. Light E wind.

Monday...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of scattered showers & thunderstorms. High 95. Winds increasing as the day goes on. NE wind 10-20 mph & gusty.

Monday Night...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of tropical showers. Low 73.  Breezy. NE wind 15-25 mph & gusty.

Tuesday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 40% chance of tropical squalls. High 88. Tropical Storm conditions possible by the evening hours. NE to E wind 20-30 mph & gusty.

Tuesday Night...Tropical Storm conditions possible. Mostly Cloudy with a 60% chance of tropical squalls from rain bands associated with Isaac. Low 77. NE wind 30-40 mph with higher gusts.

Wednesday...Cloudy & Windy w/ Tropical Storm/Hurricane conditions possible. High 86. East wind 40-50 mph w/ higher gusts. Chance of rain 80%.

Wednesday Night...Tropical Storm and/or Hurricane conditions possible. Tropical rain squalls & very windy. Low 80. SE wind 30-45 mph w/ higher gusts. Rainfall totals could exceed 5" from Tuesday into Thursday.

Thursday...Conditions improving but still Cloudy & Windy with lingering tropical squalls. High 88. SE wind 20-40 mph w/ higher gusts. Chance of rain 60%.

Thursday Night...Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers & thunderstorms. Low 76. SE wind 10-15 mph.

Friday...Back to normal. Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers & thunderstorms. High 93. SSE wind 10-15 mph.

Friday Night...Partly Cloudy. Low 76. Light SE wind.

Saturday...Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy. High 93. SE wind 10 mph.

Saturday Night...Mostly Clear. Low 75. SE wind less than 5 mph.

Sunday...Partly Cloudy. High 94. SE wind 10 mph.


Stay tuned for more...my next blog update will be Monday evening.

Have a good night, try to get some rest & God bless!
-DM-