SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...A strong area of high pressure has settled into the Bayou State on this Tuesday night. This will control the weather for the next couple of days. It was a sunny and cool November day across the area day with gusty NNW winds at times as a CAA regime was in place in the wake of the front which came through Monday. The exception was the Northern half of the state where a cold air advection stratus cloud deck was firmly entrenched around the back side of a large Upper Level Low which is situated in the vicinity of St. Louis, MO. Temperatures were on the cool side with readings ranging from the mid 50s to lower 60s across the forecast area. The stratus deck across the Northern portion of the forecast area will make the minimum temperature forecast a difficult one. The areas experiencing clear skies and nearly calm winds will have the best chance of seeing some frost overnight. The low clouds across the Northern part of the forecast area should erode overnight as the ULL over the Mid West slowly pulls to the NE and weakens. The stage is set for maximum radiational cooling across the forecast area for all areas after midnight. Frost will likely form in the coldest locations North of I-10 especially with the calm winds in place. Frost or not, this will certainly be the coolest night of the season so far across the entire forecast area. Overnight lows will range from the mid 30s to lower 40s for the entire area. If the clouds hold tough, it is possible that locations such as Lake Charles and Beaumont will be colder than Alexandria by sunrise. This is not currently reflected in the forecast.
After the cold start on Wednesday morning, a nice warm up should begin with maximum amounts of sunshine with the high pressure in control. The high will slide into the coastal waters setting up a light Westerly flow. This will generate a large diurnal range with the very dry air and very low humidity in place. It will be a beautiful day with afternoon highs reaching the mid 60s...still just a smidge below the normal values for mid November. The nice fall weather will continue for the Wednesday night/Thursday periods as well. However, it won't be quite as cold Wednesday night as it will be tonight as air mass modification begins with the high sliding Eastward through the Gulf. It will be oriented off of SE Louisiana tomorrow night, and a very light return flow will commence overnight. It will certainly still be chilly with lower 40s very obtainable once again with the dry air in place. Thursday should be another fantastic day with crystal clear skies once again. Moderating temperatures are expected with afternoon highs returning to near normal levels right around 70. The return flow will remain very light during the day.
More pronounced changes will begin by Thursday night as cloud cover increases, and the modest warning trend continues. The clouds will be moving ahead of our next storm system. Another trough and attendant cold front will be developing as it comes out of the Rockies, and energy from the Subtropical Jet Stream will co-exist. This will lead to cyclogenesis over the Western Gulf. Dry conditions will still be in place for Thursday night, but certainly a noticeable increase in humidity and low-level moisture will occur. Expect overnight lows to remain on the cool side in the mid to upper 40s. Rain chances will return to the forecast as we progress through the day Friday. Most of the day will be likely be dry with just overcast present. As the Gulf low develops and begins to move NE Friday afternoon, rain will develop over the Gulf, and spread inland by late Friday afternoon. Most of the rainfall should occur Friday night across the forecast area, and the highest chances and amounts will be near the coast. In this situation, rain chances will be tempered accordingly the further inland you go with Alexandria and Fort Polk having the least chance, while Cameron to Abbeville and New Iberia will likely be near maxed out on rain chances for this period. Rain will be likely for the I-10 corridor. The good news is that we should remain in the cool sector of this system with the low expected to remain over the Gulf, so just rain is expected with no severe weather. An embedded thunderstorm or two is certainly possible if some elevated convection develops. Rain could be heavy at times as the moisture content will be pretty high in response to the Gulf low and approaching front. There's still some uncertainties involved with this system, but rain certainly seems likely for the entire forecast area Friday night. Rainfall totals will vary from South to North as well. Coastal sections could see between 1-2" while well inland may see about 1/2" with around an inch from Beaumont to Lafayette. It should be a quick moving system, so nearly all of the rain will be confined to Friday night. The problem that poses is that it will occur during the plethora of High School Football Playoff games that are slated. However, it will not rain on every game. It will likely rain on any games that are ongoing here in SW Louisiana to Acadiana, but almost all games East of the Atchafalaya should have no worries with rain aside from maybe a brief light shower or a drizzle. The widespread steady rain won't effect SE Louisiana until midnight or later as it stands right now. This will certainly be fine tuned over the next couple of days, as I know this forecast is very important for all involved because of travel and game conditions, etc. Friday will be on the cool side to boot as the position of the low helps to pull in some cooler air, and the clouds and rain keep the temperatures down. An Easterly wind will make it feel quite raw. Maximums will struggle to reach 60 on Friday, with 50s likely for game time Friday night as well.The cold front will push through late Friday night into early Saturday as the surface low departs bringing an end to the rain, and setting up a nice weekend.
Cooler than average temperatures are expected for the duration of the pre-Thanksgiving weekend. Saturday morning should see seasonal lows in the mid to upper 40s. Clouds and some lingering showers are possible early Saturday, but as of right now, most if not all rain should be over with before sunrise Saturday for Lake Charles, and by mid-morning for Acadiana. Skies will clear during the day Saturday, and breezy conditions with fresh Northerly breezes will be in store as a CAA regime is established on the back side of the Gulf low. Temperatures will struggle to reach 60, and I will reflect this in the forecast and keep highs in the upper 50s for now. The departure of the rain is very good news for any outdoor activities you may have planned for the weekend. Could one of them be tailgating and the McNeese football game? The weather looks clear and cool for Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. Temperatures will fall off from the upper 50s to mid 50s by game time, and fall into the upper 40s before it's over. The game will start an hour earlier, so you might want to make a note of that....6p.m. High pressure will build in from the Texas Hill Country, and it will be quite chilly once again for this period. It may not be quite as cool as it is tonight, but certainly you will want a coat or jacket for the ball game. Eventual overnight lows by sunrise Sunday will be in the lower 40s. Winds will decouple (diminish) as the high ridges into the area. Sunday will be outstanding with sunny skies and comfortable temperatures. Maximums in the mid 60s seem feasible here, along with very low humidity.
The progressive weather pattern carries over into Thanksgiving week. Monday shouldn't be a bad day, but it will likely be a day of transition. The forecast area will likely garner a return flow Monday morning as the controlling ridge scoots into Dixie, and another trough and cold front comes out of the Great Plains. This will open up the Gulf of Mexico, and a fresh influx of low-level moisture will commence. Clouds won't be too far behind. Moderating temperatures will occur once again after another minimum in the 40s, afternoon highs should exceed the 70 degree threshold. Despite moisture increase in earnest, Monday should remain dry. This will change overnight Monday into Tuesday as the next front moves into the area. As usual, since this comes at the end of the forecast period, there are the usual discrepancies with timing and intensity. A chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm is inserted into the forecast for Monday night, while the best chance of showers and thunderstorms will come on Tuesday ahead of another strong front. It's too soon to tell if we'll have severe weather. This is the same system that I've discussed in previous forecast packages, that models had indicated a favorable set up for severe weather, so we'll see. I will hone in on all those prospects over the weekend, once we get Friday night's nagging system out of here. Peering ahead to the all important Thanksgiving forecast, it looks good at the moment with cool sunshine expected. There very well could be a noticeable November nip in the air providing for a totally terrific Thanksgiving Day. Regardless of what happens for Thanksgiving, the overall progressive El Nino pattern will continue, and I bet you thought progressive only referred to those insurance commercials with the lady who wears all white!
Tropics: Quiet.The season officially ends on November 30, so a little less than 2 weeks.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 39/65 42/70 48/61 0 0 0 0 0 30
LFT 38/65 40/70 47/63 0 0 0 0 0 20
BPT 40/67 44/72 53/62 0 0 0 0 0 40
AEX 36/62 38/68 45/55 0 0 0 0 0 20
POE 37/63 39/69 46/56 0 0 0 0 0 20
ARA 39/65 41/71 49/62 0 0 0 0 0 20
Tonight...Clear and Cold w/ Patchy Frost. Low 39. Calm wind.
Wednesday...Sunny. High 65. WSW wind 5-10 mph.
Wednesday Night...Clear and Not as Cold. Low 42. Light South wind.
Thursday...Sunny. High 70. SE wind 5-10 mph.
Thursday Night...Increasing Cloudiness and Warmer. Low 48. SE wind 5-10 mph.
Friday...Cloudy with a 30% chance of rain developing by late afternoon. Cooler. High 61. East wind 10-15 mph.
Drew's 7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity
Wednesday
11-18-09
Low: 39
High: 65
Rain: 0%
Wind: W 5-10
Thursday
11-19-09
Low: 42
High: 70
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 5-10
Friday
11-20-09
Low: 48
High: 61
Rain: 30% PM...80% Night
Wind: E 10-15
Saturday
11-21-09
Low: 48
High: 58
Rain: 20% Early AM...70% Before Sunrise
Wind: NNW 10-15
Sunday
11-22-09
Low: 43
High: 66
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
Monday
11-23-09
Low: 49
High: 72
Rain: 20% PM...70% Night
Wind: SSE 15-20
Tuesday
11-24-09
Low: 55
High: 65
Rain: 60% AM
Wind: SSW/NNW 15-20
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet after midnight.
Wednesday...Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot.
Wednesday Night...South winds around 5 knots becoming east after midnight. Seas 2 feet or less.
Thursday...East winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday Night...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. A chance of showers after midnight.
Friday...Northeast winds 20 to 30 knots and gusty. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Widespread rain.
...Tide Data...
Wednesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:
Low: 9:08a.m.
High: 5:02p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
172.50'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
Low: 44
Normal Low: 49
Record Low: 29-1911
High: 62
Normal High: 70
Record High: 88-1917
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 0.11"
Normal Month to Date: 2.55"
Year to Date: 62.05"
Normal Year to Date: 50.53"
Record: 1.93"-1974
Sunrise Wednesday: 6:41a.m.
Sunset Wednesday: 5:15p.m.
Wednesday Hunting Times: 6:11a.m.-5:45p.m.
...Lunar Table...
First Quarter- Tuesday November 24
Full Moon- Wednesday December 2
Last Quarter- Wednesday December 9
New Moon- Wednesday December 16
Good night and God bless!
-DM-
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