SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Ida is nearing the Northern Gulf Coast, and is transitioning to an extratropical storm as expected. This poses no threat to our area. Landfall is expected overnight around Mobile, AL. Ida will keep weakening as it has fallen victim to the cool sea-surface temperatures along the Northern Gulf Coast, as well a large amount of wind shear over the Gulf. This will likely be the last night that we discuss Ida, and all the latest on Ida is coming up in the tropical section.
It was really an uneventful day across the area. The expected widespread rainfall never materialized. Organized showers and embedded thunderstorms remained offshore over the near shore waters. Dry air on the backside of the circulation of Ida entrained dry air over the area, and as the area of rain over the Gulf tried to moved inland it fell apart as it ingested the dry air. Some light showers did manage to move inland mainly along and South of I-10 this afternoon. Lower Acadiana saw a better coverage of rain as this area was closer to the circulation from Ida, but rainfall totals were very light across the entire area. Much of the forecast area saw no rain at all, but in the areas that did receive rain amounts were generally less than .25". A tight pressure gradient is in place across the area, and as a result of this windy conditions occurred throughout the day with East wind 15-25 mph at times. Temperatures were seasonable with maximums in the mid 70s. The windy conditions will remain in place through Tuesday as Ida disintegrates over the SE U.S., and high pressure to our North builds in. While the widespread rain never materialized, the cold front did, and it currently moving at a good clip through the forecast area. Drier and cooler air is filtering into the region on the backside of Ida, and behind the front. Skies have already cleared across the Lake Charles area and points Westward, with just a few high clouds remaining. Clear skies will move into the remainder of the forecast area overnight. Overnight lows will be in the mid 50s to around 60.
The only weather issue for Tuesday will be the gusty winds. Winds out of the North at 15-25 mph will be quite common for much of the day around the backside of Ida, and in advance of the building Mid West high. It should be the first of another string of beautiful Fall days with Mostly Sunny skies and pleasant temperatures expected. High temperatures should be right around seasonable again with readings from the low to mid 70s. Quiet weather prevails for the rest of the work week Wednesday-Friday as high pressure dominates. Sunny skies are expected each day with pleasantly low humidity, and comfortable temperatures. Morning lows will range from the mid 40s to mid 50s depending on your location in the forecast area. The coolest morning should be Thursday or Friday morning...give or take a degree. The controlling high pressure will settle overhead at this time allow winds to be very light. Afternoon highs will range from the low to mid 70s each day.
Some changes, albeit nothing major, are expected over the weekend. High pressure moves Eastward on Friday allowing for the commencement of an onshore flow once again headnig into the weekend. A modest increase of low-level moisture will occur on Saturday. At this time, our next cold front will be moving into range from the Rockies. Clouds will increase in response to more low-level moisture by Saturday afternoon, but it should be a dry day on Saturday. Moderating temperatures are expected as well with lows in the mid to upper 50s, while highs in the mid to possibly upper 70s are obtainable. Sunday will bring the next chance of rain. The chance of rain is small at this time, as the dynamics necessary to produce a significant rainfall event should be absent out ahead of the front. While the overall upper air pattern will be out of the NW, with an onshore flow at the surface low-level moisture values will be sufficient enough for a few showers to develop as the front pushes into the region. This front will likely be slowing down as it moves toward the forecast area, so there are timing inconsistencies in regards to when the front will actually come through. Best guess right now is to suggest frontal passage sometime Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will be mild for Sunday ahead of the front with lows in the upper 50s, and highs in the lower 70s.
The cold front will likely bring the coolest weather of the season so far in its wake. This will begin spilling into the region Sunday night. Clearing conditions are expected behind the front Sunday night. This period will also offer an increase in wind, and a switch from an onshore to offshore flow with the NW flow aloft continuing as well. Cool and dry weather will close out the forecast period on Monday with morning lows down to near 50 while afternoon highs remain shy of 70 degrees with gusty North winds under a strong CAA pattern. Beyond the forecast period, dry and cool weather should continue for a few more days with temperatures cooling off further at this time. Lows could dip below 45 for the first time this season, and highs could remain below 65. The latest long range models suggest an active pattern beyond mid-month heading towards Thanksgiving. There isn't any real sign of any true Arctic air masses coming Southward anytime soon, but the pattern is still one that favors the possibility of our first frost/freeze mid-late month.
Tropics: Ida is the only game in town, and it will go down in the history books for one of the latest landfalling tropical systems ever in the United States. Later this week, I'll have some statistics about that, and other notable November tropical systems. For now, we continue to track Ida, and there's really nothing new to report as far as forecast philosophy on the strength and track of Ida. The storm is in its expected transition phase tonight as the weakening trend continues. Ida is a highly sheared system at this point, with the low-level circulation becoming exposed with all of the convection to the North and East of the center. The storm is void of convection on its Southern flank, and there's not very much on the Western side of the storm either. Ida is really struggling as it nears the coast and is losing its tropical characteristics as a cold front and upper level latch onto Ida. Conditions along the Northern Gulf are deteriorating, but things are just about as bad as they are going to get along this area, and conditions are already improving for SE Louisiana, and extreme SW Mississippi. Ida's forward progress has slowed just a bit tonight, and this will likely continue on Tuesday. A due Northward motion is noted at this time, and a turn to the East will occur on Tuesday. Ida will bring heavy rain and gusty winds for a large portion of the SE U.S. for the next few days. This includes many of the major cities in the SE like Atlanta, Birmingham, Montgomery, Mobile, Pensacola, Tallahassee, Charleston, and Savannah. Ida will make landfall near sunrise Tuesday. The top winds on the latest advisory are a very questionable 65 mph, at least based on satellite and radar representation. Minor storm surge is expected along and to the right (East) of the center of circulation, and inland flooding is likely in many areas as rainfall totals of 4-8" with isolated amounts of 10" possible across the SE U.S. through mid-week. At present, rainfall is spreading Northward over a wide area from near the Pearl River on the Louisiana/Mississippi across Central and Southern Mississippi mainly East of Jackson, almost all of Alabama where rain extends as far North as Huntsville and into Georgia as far North as Rome including Atlanta. The shield of rain extends Eastward into parts of South and North Carolina and SE Tennessee. Despite the expected landfall occurring somewhere on the Alabama coast most likely, Ida has a large wind field, and where the center of circulation comes ashore will be of little significance. Included are some of the usual graphics as well as a radar link from NWS Mobile-Pensacola, so you can see the center of circulation, and track it as it moves ashore.
Tropical Storm Ida
Monday, November 9, 2009 9p.m. CST
Latitude: 29.3 N
Longitude: 88.6 W
This is about 100 miles SSW of Mobile, AL.
Winds: 65 mph w/ higher gusts. Some weakening is expected overnight with Ida moving over the cooler waters of the Northern Gulf. Ida will merge with a frontal boundary by Wednesday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward to 200 miles from the center, mainly on the North and East side.
Movement: North @ 13 mph. A NNE turn and a decrease in forward speed is expected overnight. On the forecast track Ida's landfall will occur Tuesday morning on the Northern Gulf near Mobile Bay. An Eastward turn is expected over land on Tuesday.
Pressure: 29.44" or 997 mb.
Watches/Warnings: A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Grand Isle, LA to the Aucilla River, FL including New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain. However, the worst of the weather has passed SE Louisiana, and I would expect portions of the Tropical Storm Warning to be discontinued early Tuesday.
Watch Ida move inland here
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 59/74 50/70 48/71 0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 61/75 51/72 47/71 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 60/76 52/73 50/72 0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 55/73 47/68 44/69 0 0 0 0 0 0
POE 56/73 47/69 45/70 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 63/76 53/74 49/71 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tonight...Clearing. Low 59. North wind 10-15 mph.
Tuesday...Sunny and Windy. High 74. North wind 15-25 mph and gusty.
Tuesday Night...Clear. Low 50. North wind 10-15 mph.
Wednesday...Sunny. High 70. North wind 10-15 mph.
Wednesday Night...Clear. Low 48. North wind 5-10 mph.
Thursday...Sunny. High 71. North wind 5-10 mph.
Drew's 7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity
Tuesday
11-10-09
Low: 59
High: 74
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 15-25
Wednesday
11-11-09
Veteran's Day
Low: 50
High: 70
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10-15
Thursday
11-12-09
Low: 48
High: 71
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
Friday
11-13-09
Low: 45
High: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
Saturday
11-14-09
Low: 53
High: 75
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 10
Sunday
11-15-09
Low: 57
High: 72
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE/NNW 10-15
Monday
11-16-09
Low: 49
High: 65
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
...Marine Forecast...
*Small Craft Advisory.*
Tuesday Through Wednesday...North winds 20 knots. Seas 4 to 7 feet.
Wednesday Night...North winds 15 to 20 knots...subsiding 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 3 to 4 feet after midnight.
Thursday...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
...Tide Data...
Tuesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 5:02a.m. 3:20p.m.
High: 7:05a.m. 9:52p.m.
...Toledo Bend...
172.71'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Monday, November 9, 2009
Low: 66
Normal Low: 51
Record Low: 28-1991
High: 74
Normal High: 72
Record High: 87-1919
Rainfall
Today: 0.01"
Month to Date: 0.01"
Normal Month to Date: 1.29"
Year to Date: 61.95"
Normal Year to Date: 49.27"
Record: 3.29"-1940
Sunrise Tuesday: 6:34a.m.
Sunset Tuesday: 5:19p.m.
Hunting Times: 6:04a.m.-5:49p.m.
...Lunar Table...
New Moon- November 16
First Quarter- November 24
Full Moon- December 2
Last Quarter- December 9
Good night and God bless!
-DM-
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