Monday, November 29, 2010

Strong Cold Front in Transit...Much Quieter for the Rest of the Week...

Monday, November 29, 2010

The blog is in severe weather mode tonight. Regular operations will resume on Tuesday. There is no video blog for this update.


SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Our latest cold front is in transit. Showers and thunderstorms are developing in the deep, tropical air mass in place across the forecast area. Most of these are scattered and brief in nature, but a more solid line of convection with some severe weather is ongoing to our NE into the Jackson, MS forecast area. So far no severe weather has occurred here in SW Louisiana, but this could still change with more than sufficient atmospheric dynamics in place. A Tornado Watch is in effect for nearly all of the Louisiana half of the forecast area until 4a.m. The only exceptions are Beauregard and Vernon Parishes where more stable air is already taking over. This strong late November cold front is making its way towards the Gulf Coast, and the deep tropical air mass in place with be flushed out to sea quickly in the wee mornings of Tuesday. Regardless of severe weather, some heavy rainfall is expected with total amounts exceeding 1" in many locations. All modes of severe weather are possible tonight but with a strong Jet Stream in place damaging winds and isolated tornadoes seem to be the main threats. The greatest threat for severe weather including a few strong and long-tracked tornadoes should be further to our NE into portions of Mississippi and Eastern Louisiana. There is a great deal of energy that needs to be displaced. It was quite a warm today on Monday with highs reaching the upper 70s, far above the normal for late November. Thankfully, there was very little in the way of sunshine to further destabilize the atmosphere. The more unstable the atmosphere, the greater the risk of severe weather. There are several parameters in place that may help initiate the severe weather. Let's look at some of the graphics issued by the Storm Prediction Center.













































It will remain warm and humid with plenty of clouds in place when it's not raining at your location. A sharp contrast in temperatures will occur. Much drier and cooler air clearly denotes the frontal boundary at present. For example, it is 73 here in Lake Charles as of this writing, and it's already in the 50s in Shreveport. This is just a harbinger of things to come as the front moves into and sweeps through the area in the early morning hours. Moisture will continue to pool ahead of said boundary, and convergence will increase and the threat for showers and thunderstorms will remain in the likely category until at least 2-3a.m. Tuesday. The severe weather threat ends instantly with the passage of the front, but the rains may continue for a time in the post-frontal environment early Tuesday morning. Boundary layer moisture will be slow to decrease, and the cooler and drier air between 850 and 700 mb. is lagging behind a bit due to the initially shallow nature of the air mass. Winds will shift from onshore to offshore as the front blows on by. Rough conditions will develop over the coastal waters. Much colder temperatures are in the offing for Tuesday, and it could be a day in which temperatures will be confused. Strong CAA and continued cloud cover with spotty showers will likely mean that temperatures hold steady or drop slowly through the day. Overall, temperatures should remain in the 50s throughout the day, and with clouds, showers, and wind it will certainly feel colder than that. The cold front should make its way into the area between midnight and 4a.m. Skies will slowly begin to clear during the day Tuesday as the boundary layer moisture decreases and strong Canadian high pressure slides down the base of the Rockies toward the area. The chance for lingering showers will come to an end by lunch time at the latest it would appear. I wouldn't rule out seeing some sunshine during the day is over.

The stage will be set for a cold night across the forecast area for Tuesday Night into Wednesday Morning. The strong Canadian high will be centered over Texas, and with clear skies and light winds present the stage will be set for ideal radiative cooling across the forecast area. Be sure to protect the plants once again as a light freeze will be likely from I-10 Northward. This will be a very similar air mass to the preceding one from over Thanksgiving weekend. This will not be a pipe busting freeze by any means, but you will certainly want to protect your tender vegetation. Skies will be clear as we start the day Wednesday, and temperatures will range from the upper 20s to mid 30s across the area. The immediate coast will likely avoid the freezing mark, but it will certainly still be a cold morning with readings in the 30s. The air mass is generally a mix of Canadian and Pacific air, therefore, a large diurnal range is expected with highs reaching the upper 50s to lower 60s. This is trending below normal once again with the strong high pressure in control. Wall to wall sunshine is expected for the mid-week period. Very low humidity values will be in place with the continuing offshore flow in place.

Another cold morning is slated for Thursday as the large area of high pressure will only slowly shift Eastward of the forecast area. Clear skies and light winds will once again set the stage for some radiative cooling. Temperatures won't be quite as cold for Thursday morning as air mass modification ensues. Most locales should, however, be in the frosty range once again with 30s across the board. Many locations North of Hwy. 190 will likely experience an early December freeze. The high pressure will remain in control, but be anchored further to our East. As a result, it will remain pleasant with low humidity and plenty of sunshine. High temperatures will be closer to normal for early December back into the low to mid 60s for most. The quiet weather regime takes us into the weekend with plenty of sunshine for Friday and Saturday as well. Air mass modification will continue, and temperatures will return to near the norms for early December. Lows will climb back into the 40s while highs reside in the 60s for the most part. It could approach 70, but it will still feel very nice either way. The controlling high will be positioned to our NE, and will be close enough to keep our weather nice, but at the same time it will also prevent much Gulf influence just yet. The prospects of some late night/early morning fog may be realized as well by Saturday, but this is something that will be re-assessed as the week progresses.

Rounding out the weekend on Sunday, it will remain dry, but a return flow will become established as the high slides further to the East. Low level moisture will begin to increase ushering in higher humidity values, and temperatures will continue to moderate as well. Highs will be near 70 while morning lows will be in the mid to upper 40s. That's essentially normal for this time of year. The weekend looks great for anything you may have planned outdoors. The Saints play on the road this week in Cincinnati against the Bengals. The game is slated for a noon kickoff (1p.m. in Cincinnati). An early peek at the forecast for Southern Ohio looks cold. Skies are expected to be Mostly Cloudy with the outside chance that a snow flurry or two may occur. The morning low will be in the upper 20s, and a high on Sunday during the game will be in the mid to upper 30s. Not unusual for early December in the North. Another cold front will become the main item of interest by Monday of next week. This front should easily work through the area, but right now all models indicate that moisture will be limited. All indications are that there will be very little in the way of a chance of rain ahead of this front, and only a temporary increase in clouds is noted at this time. Temperatures will continue to warm briefly ahead of another strong front. Morning lows for Monday will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s, while the afternoon high will top out in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The current timing of the front allows for a transition back to CAA during the afternoon, thus resulting in the cooler maximum temperatures. High pressure quickly becomes re-established in the wake of the front. This looks to be the strongest front so far this season, and it may very well tap into some Arctic air. This could pose a threat for a hard freeze by Tuesday of next week, more on that in the days ahead. For now, stay tuned for more on any severe weather for tonight.


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH  73/50  31/59  34/62  80 20 0 0 0 0
LFT   73/52  30/58  34/62  80 20 0 0 0 0
BPT   70/50  32/60  35/63  80 20 0 0 0 0
AEX  59/48  28/55  30/60  80 20 0 0 0 0
POE  59/48  28/55  31/60  80 20 0 0 0 0
ARA  73/54  32/60  35/63  80 20 0 0 0 0


*Tornado Watch in effect until 4a.m. Tuesday.*

Tonight...Mostly Cloudy with showers & thunderstorms likely. Some severe storms with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes possible. Turning Much Colder after midnight. Temperatures falling from near 73 into the 50s in the pre-dawn hours. SSW wind 15-20 mph and gusty, becoming NNW at 15-25 mph and gusty after midnight. Chance of rain 80%.

Tuesday...Mostly Cloudy, Much Colder, & Windy with a 20% chance of mainly light rain during the morning. Rain ending with clouds beginning to decrease in the afternoon. Temperatures hovering in the 50s throughout the day, perhaps continuing to fall to near 50 in the afternoon. NNW wind 15-20 mph and gusty, diminishing to 10-15 in the afternoon.

Tuesday Night...Clear & Cold w/ a Light Freeze. Low 31. North wind 5-10 mph.

Wednesday...Sunny. High 59. North wind less than 5 mph.

Wednesday Night...Clear & Not Quite as Cold with areas of frost likely. Low 34. Light wind.

Thursday...Sunny & Warmer. High 62.  NE wind 5-10 mph.


Tuesday 11/30/10 Daily Planner

6a.m.

Weather: Cloudy, Windy, & Much Colder w/ Lingering Showers












Temp: 55
Rain: 30%
Wind: NNW 18

9a.m.

Weather: Mostly Cloudy, Windy, & Colder











Temp: 53
Rain: 20%
Wind: NNW 21

Noon

Weather: Mostly Cloudy, Slow Clearing Beginning











Temp: 50
Rain: 20%
Wind: NNW 22

3p.m.

Weather: Mostly to Partly Cloudy











Temp: 54
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 17

6p.m.

Weather: Clear











Temp: 48
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 12

9p.m.

Weather: Clear & Cold











Temp: 42
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 7
W.C.: 37


Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Tuesday
11-30-10











Low: 73
High: 50
Rain: 80% Before Daybreak...20% Until Noon
Wind: NNW 15-25


Wednesday
12-1-10









Low: 31
High: 59
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
W.C.: 25-30 A.M.


Thursday
12-2-10









Low: 34
High: 63
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
W.C.: 30-35 A.M.


Friday
12-3-10

Low: 41
High: 65
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 5-10


Saturday
12-4-10









Low: 43
High: 67
Rain: 0%
Wind: ESE 5-10


Sunday
12-5-10











Low: 48
High: 69
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15


Monday
12-6-10











Low: 50
High: 54
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSW/NNW 20-30


...Tropical Update...

The tropics are quiet, and will remain that way as we close out the season on Tuesday. It was an active year with 19 named storms. A total of none affected SW Louisiana. This section of the blog will be discontinued after Tuesday.


...Marine Forecast...


*Small Craft Advisory in effect Tuesday.*

Tonight...West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet...increasing 4 to 7 feet late. Numerous showers and thunderstorms. A chance of showers after midnight.

Tuesday...North winds 25 knots. Seas 4 to 7 feet. A chance of rain in the morning.

Tuesday Night...North winds 15 to 25 knots becoming 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet.

Wednesday...North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet subsiding to 1 foot in the afternoon.

Wednesday Night...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot.

Thursday...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot.


Good night, have a great Tuesday & God bless!
-DM-

Tornado Watch in Effect Until 9p.m.

Monday, November 29, 2010

The anticipated severe weather threat is unfolding. There is not much in the way of shower and thunderstorm activity ongoing across our area at present aside from a few spotty showers. However, as the strong cold front moves towards our forecast area a large amount of energy will be displaced. The atmospheric conditions are favorable for the threat of isolated tornadoes, strong damaging winds, and large hail through the hours into the overnight hours. The severe weather threat should end after midnight as much colder air takes over.

A Tornado Watch has been issued for much of SW Louisiana until 9p.m. This watch includes all of SE Texas and SW Louisiana into Central Louisiana. The only exlcusion is the Lafayette area and points S and E of there. They will likely be under a watch later on this evening and tonight.




Stay tuned throughout the afternoon and evening for more.

-DM-

Severe Weather Threat Monday Evening...Cold Start to December...

Sunday, November 28, 2010

I hope everyone had a very blessed and Happy Thanksgiving. Now, as we head into the Christmas season, let us not forget the real reason for the season. It is easy to do that sometimes with all the hustle and bustle and hype of holiday shopping. Remember, that there was no mad rush to the stores to buy presents over 2,000 years ago when we received the greatest gift of all. Jesus is the reason for the season!

The blog will be in severe weather mode through Monday with a possible severe weather outbreak looming for Monday afternoon through Monday night. Only a text form of this blog is available. The video blog will return Tuesday. Be sure to scroll down for the text form of this blog.


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The weather roller coaster rolls on. After wearing shorts through Thanksgiving, we were in heavy coats on Friday with temperatures some 35-40 degrees colder. We experienced our first freeze of the season on Saturday morning, and it was quite chilly this morning as well. A very progressive pattern for late November is in place. Our next storm system is already unfurling tonight. A strong Southerly flow is in place allowing a rich supply of Gulf moisture to return across the area. Clouds have been on the increase throughout, and that's a sure sign of our ever changing weather patterns. It was about as beautiful as it ever gets around here on Saturday after the morning freeze. Temperatures moderated progressively over the weekend, only reaching the upper 50s to lower 60s on Saturday, and extending into the upper 60s Sunday afternoon. Temperatures are much milder tonight with robust warm air advection ongoing. Expect the overnight lows to only be in the mid 50s on average. Temperatures could actually slowly rise overnight as the current WAA regime intensifies. The amounts of low level moisture will increase further, and cloud cover will follow suit as we anxiously await a potent Pacific weather system. As we head back to work and school Monday, it will start off quietly with just Mostly Cloudy skies in place.

Conditions will deteriorate as the day progresses Monday. A negatively tilted, deepening trough and its attendant cold front will be surging SE during the day. There is also the presence of a surface low over the Great Plains. As the sharp cold front approaches, moisture will continue to pool. The advancing front will increase forcing over the forecast area, and a very fast Jet Stream overhead will instigate strong dynamics across this forecast area. A few scattered showers and/or thunderstorms will be possible during the morning hours as warm air advection continues, and some air mass type activity develops. Rain chances leap into the likely category for the afternoon into the overnight hours. Convergence will continue increase, and this will initiate showers and thunderstorms over the area in the pre-frontal environment. Along and just ahead of the actual cold front, a line of storms will develop (MCS) over the Red River Valley in the morning hours, and translate SE through the day. Many of the necessary parameters required for severe weather will be in place in the pre-frontal environment. The strong Jet Stream will create a large amount of atmospheric wind shear. Strong CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) values will also co-exist with the main Jet dynamics. The wind shear will result in a tornado threat across much of the state. There is virtually no skill in pinpointing exactly where a tornado will occur. I urge everyone to stay abreast of the weather conditions throughout the day Monday. There is a high amount of energy that will need to be displaced, so a severe weather threat could certainly be realized. It will temporarily be warm on Monday with highs reaching back into the mid 70s, this is back into the above normal category. The strong onshore flow will persist, and this will create rough conditions on area waterways. Thus, a Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for Monday.

The other modes of severe weather will be possible, and damaging winds seem like the most likely aspect of the three to occur. The strong Jet Stream winds aloft will translate down to the surface with the thunderstorms. Winds are related to height, meaning that they will decrease with height as they move towards the surface. The downbursts created by each thunderstorm will translate these strong winds down to the surface. Winds up to 100 mph are possible in the strongest storms especially if any tornadoes occur. I would fully expect some sort of Tornado or Severe Thunderstorm Watch to be hoisted for the forecast area at some point Monday afternoon as the system hurls its way towards us. The severe weather threat covers the entire area, but the greatest threat should be just off to our NE, running from around Alexandria to Monroe and over into SE Louisiana. Large hail can't be ruled out either with plenty of cold air aloft. Heavy rainfall will be a fixture as well, and a more significant rain event than occurred with the previous system. 1-2" on average is expected across the area between Monday afternoon and Tuesday morning. The window of opportunity for severe weather will likely be from around 4p.m. Monday until about 4a.m. Tuesday. I believe that severe weather will be realized given the sufficient dynamics in place. There was very little in the way of dynamics in place back on Thanksgiving night, and some tornadoes occurred from near Jennings up towards Opelousas from low topped showers. The sharp cold front will slide through the forecast area overnight Monday, as the surface low ejects NE into the Mid West region. The severe weather threat will come to an end with frontal passage from West to East by early Tuesday morning. Much colder air will filter into the region in the post-frontal environment. Rain chances will continue for a short duration with a brief period of overrunning as CAA intensifies. Stable air in place at the surface will be overridden by a shallow layer of warm air around 5,000' in the atmosphere. This will keep the boundary layer saturated, and allow for a transition from showers and thunderstorms (cumuliform), and the severe threat to generally light post-frontal stratiform rain. Temperatures will change drastically heading into Tuesday with readings dropping into the upper 40s to lower 50s across the area. A strong offshore flow will take over in the wake of the front.











                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Conditions improve as the day wears on Tuesday. The short period of overrunning will come to an end during the morning as the boundary layer moisture decreases. The advancing cold front will continue to make headway into the Gulf of Mexico, and high pressure from the Rockies builds towards the NW Gulf Coast. Rain comes to an end from West to East across the area, ending in the pre-dawn hours across SE Texas and by midday across Lower Acadiana. Skies will remain Mostly Cloudy for a while longer as the transition from low pressure to high pressure commences. Strong CAA will continue for Tuesday, and high temperatures will be below normal again. A very small diurnal range is forecast as CAA offsets daytime heating. Daytime highs will be in the mid 50s at best. The sun should make an appearance later in the day as all clouds push out of the area. Remember how cold it was on Saturday morning? A very similar set up is in the offing by mid-week as the strong high pressure system ridges in. The clear skies and decaying winds will set the stage for a night of radiative cooling. Another light freeze is likely across much of the area heading into Wednesday morning. Minimums will range from the upper 20s to lower 30s for most, with mid to upper 30s along the immediate coast. It will be time to protect the tender vegetation once again.

High pressure dominates the weather for the remainder of the forecast. It will be a cool start to meteorological winter on Wednesday with highs only reaching the mid to upper 50s as the offshore flow maintains itself. It will be similarly cold for Wednesday night into Thursday as the strong controlling Canadian high pressure moves right over head. Temperatures will range from the upper 20s to lower 30s again, and another light freeze is expected down to the I-10 corridor. Air mass modification begins Thursday with highs exceeding the 60 degree threshold. The high pressure will only slowly shift Eastward through the weekend, and a slow air mass modification is expected. Beautiful weather will round out the work week as the high dominates. Friday morning will be on the cool side with lows generally close to 40. Afternoon highs will be close to normal for early December. An onshore flow returns Saturday, and models have been wavering on the idea of another cold front making its way through the area on Saturday. This is not currently reflected due to the uncertainties. However, it looks as though significant moisture return will be slow as the strong blocking high will be located over the SE U.S. Air mass modification will suggest a normal temperature regime for Saturday. The December warming trend continues for Sunday with a more pronounced warming trend ensuing. Another storm will be in the formative stages at this time. At this time, it should remain dry with the lack of a trigger mechanism and a largely capped atmosphere. Seasonable weather is expected. It looks like the first weekend of December will be a nice one, if you have plans to put out your Christmas lights et al. Another decently potent system is looming just beyond this forecast period in the December 6th-8th time frame. This is certainly not the time to be specific about that system. Stay tuned for the latest weather information throughout the day Monday.


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH  54/77  50/55  31/58  10 70 80 20 0 0
LFT   53/77  51/56  31/57  10 70 80 20 0 0
BPT   56/78  52/57  32/59  10 70 80 20 0 0
AEX  50/75  48/53  27/58  10 70 70 20 0 0
POE  50/75  48/53  28/58  10 70 70 20 0 0
ARA  56/76  52/56  32/58  10 70 80 20 0 0


Tonight...Mostly Cloudy with an isolated shower possible towards morning. Low 54. SSE wind 10-15 mph.

Monday...Mostly Cloudy with showers & thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Some severe weather with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes possible. High 77. SSE wind 15-25 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 70%.

Monday Night...Cloudy with showers & thunderstorms likely. Some severe weather possible along with the threat for locally heavy rainfall. Turning Cooler & Windy after midnight. Low 50.  SSW wind 15-25 mph and gusty, becoming NNW at 15-25 mph by midnight. Chance of rain 80%.

Tuesday...Mostly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers & thunderstorms in the morning. Rains tapering off from west to east during the morning. Skies slowing clearing through the day. Much colder. High 55. NNW wind 15-20 mph and gusty.

Tuesday Night...Clear and Cold with a Light Freeze. Low 31. North wind 5-10 mph.

Wednesday...Sunny. High 58. North wind 5-10 mph.


Monday 11/29/10 Daily Planner

6a.m.

Weather: Mostly Cloudy











Temp: 55
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 8

9a.m.

Weather: Mostly Cloudy













Temp: 63
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 11

Noon

Weather: Mostly Cloudy...Showers/Storms Beginning to Develop












Temp: 70
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSE 16

3p.m.

Weather: Cloudy w/ Scattered Storms












Temp: 75
Rain: 60%
Wind: SSE 21

6p.m.

Weather: Rain & T-Storms Likely












Temp: 70
Rain: 70%
Wind: SSE 22

9p.m.

Weather: T-Storms Likely...Some Severe











Temp: 66
Rain: 80%
Wind: SSW 18



Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Monday
11-29-10












Low: 54
High: 75
Rain: 70%
Wind: SSE 15-25


Tuesday
11-30-10












Low: 50
High: 55
Rain: 80% Before Daybreak...20% AM
Wind: NNW 15-25


Wednesday
12-1-10











Low: 31
High: 58
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
W.C.: 25-35


Thursday
12-2-10











Low: 33
High: 62
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5


Friday
12-3-10










Low: 38
High: 64
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10


Saturday
12-4-10










Low: 43
High: 68
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 5-10


Sunday
12-5-10












Low: 47
High: 68
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 5-10


...Tropical Update...

The tropics are quiet, and will stay that way as we round out the 2010 season coming up on Tuesday.


...Marine Forecast...


Tonight...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers.

Monday...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning...then numerous showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Monday Night...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots shifting northwest 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Numerous showers and thunderstorms in the evening...then a chance of rain after midnight.

Tuesday...North winds 25 to 30 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of rain in the morning.

Tuesday Night...North winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

Wednesday...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet.


Have a great Monday & God bless!
-DM-

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

Warm Thanksgiving....Much Colder w/ a Holiday Feel for the Remainder of the Long Weekend...

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

The forecast discussion is coming up momentarily. This will be my final forecast discussion before Thanksgiving. Depending on the weather situation overnight Thursday into Friday, I will resume updating the blog Sunday Night. First, I wanted to take time out to post my Thanksgiving message. Please scroll down afterward for the video blog and the text form of the forecast!

What is Thanksgiving? Thanksgiving is a special time to gather with family, friends, and loved ones and give thanks for the many blessings we have in our lives, and enjoy tons of food and football. It all started back in 1621 when the Pilgrims celebrated the first Thanksgiving as a way of thanking God for a good harvest. Of course, we celebrate a bit differently here in modern times. Although Thanksgiving wasn't officially declared a national holiday by Congress until 1941, it was first declared as a day of thanksgiving by President Abraham Lincoln in October of 1863. Lincoln issued a proclamation from Washington, D.C. on October 3, 1863 in the midst of the Civil War. Here is the great manuscript from one of our greatest presidents.

"The year that is drawing toward its close has been filled with the blessings of fruitful fields and healthful skies. To these bounties, which are so constantly enjoyed that we are prone to forget the source from which they come, others have been added which are of so extraordinary a nature that they can not fail to penetrate and soften even the heart which is habitually insensible to the ever-watchful providence of Almighty God.

"In the midst of a civil war of unequaled magnitude and severity, which has sometimes seemed to foreign states to invite and to provoke their aggression, peace has been preserved with all nations, order has been maintained, the laws have been respected and obeyed, and harmony has prevailed everywhere, except in the theater of military conflict, while that theater has been greatly contracted by the advancing armies and navies of the Union.

"Needful diversions of wealth and of strength from the fields of peaceful industry to the national defense have not arrested the plow, the shuttle, or the ship; the ax has enlarged the borders of our settlements, and the mines, as well as the iron and coal as of our precious metals, have yielded even more abundantly than heretofore. Population has steadily increased notwithstanding the waste that has been made in the camp, the siege, and the battlefield, and the country, rejoicing in the consciousness of augmented strength and vigor, is permitted to expect continuance of years with large increase of freedom.

"No human counsel hath devised nor hath any mortal hand worked out these great things. They are the gracious gifts of the Most High God, who, while dealing with us in anger for our sins, hath nevertheless remembered mercy.

"It has seemed to me fit and proper that they should be solemnly, reverently, and gratefully acknowledged, as with one heart and one voice, by the whole American people. I do therefore invite my fellow-citizens in every part of the United States, and also those who are in foreign lands, to set apart and observe the last Thursday of November next as a day of thanksgiving and praise to our beneficent Father who dwelleth in the heavens. And I recommend to them that while offering up the ascriptions justly due to Him for such singular deliverances and blessings they do also, with humble penitence for our national perverseness and disobedience, commend to His tender care all those who have become widows, orphans, mourners, or sufferers in the lamentable civil strife in which we are unavoidably engaged, and fervently implore the imposition of the Almighty hand to heal the wounds of the nation and to restore it, as soon as may be consistent with the divine purpose, to the full enjoyment of peace, harmony, tranquility, and union.

"In testimony whereof I have hereunto set my hand and caused the seal of the United States to be affixed."

-Abraham Lincoln-

As we celebrate Thanksgiving 2010...I ask What are you thankful for? I know what I'm thankful for. First and foremost, I am thankful to God. God has blessed me with a great family, girlfriend, and friends. The love and support they give me is the best anyone could hope for. He has blessed me many times over in my life. I have a great home, and enjoy great meals everyday. I am thankful to live in such a beautiful place, Lake Charles, LA. This is home, and will always be home. I am blessed with good health. I am so thankful that God has helped me achieve what I have achieved so far in my life, and pray that there is so much more yet to achieve. I am thankful that I am able to do what God has willed me to do. I am so blessed that He has provided for all my needs, and I know He always will. I am so thankful that He is always there no matter what, and He knows all of what is going on in my life, and I am thankful that I know if He leads me to it, He'll lead me through it. Without Him I would have nothing, I would be nothing. Thank you, God, you get all the glory!!!

I am thankful to my parents...the best parents anyone could ever have! They've been monumental in helping my get where I am today, and without their support I couldn't have done it. With all my many struggles through school, they never gave up on me. God truly blessed me with great parents! Thank you mom and dad!

I am thankful for my wonderfully awesome girlfriend, Lucy, who loves me unconditionally. She supports me every step of the way, and allows me to be me. We've been together almost a year now, and this time together has been the most special time in my whole life. God has blessed me with the best and most special girlfriend anyone could have, and I look forward to all that He has planned for us in the future. Thank you, babe for always being there, and always believing in me. I love you so much!

I am thankful that I live in the greatest country in the world...the United States of America! I am thankful for the many freedoms that go along with that, and for such brave men and women in the United States Military that fight to keep our country free. They truly are our real heroes, and I thank all of you for your service to this country, past, present, and future. My thoughts and prayers are with all of you wherever you are around the world or here at home. God bless you and God bless America!

There are so many people who are less fortunate than myself and many of us out there. This, and every Thanksgiving, we remember those less fortunate than we are. We remember those who aren't able to enjoy all of the same freedoms that we do no matter what their situation is. This has been a tough year economically for many. Whether people have had a rough year economically, mentally, physically, etc. we pause to think about all of you. I pray that God watches over you, and provides for you in every way soon.

As we gather with our family and friends for a great meal and great time together this weekend, I hope that you will remember to pause and pray for those less fortunate, and to thank God for all He has blessed you with in your life. Also, as we head into the Christmas season, and all of the hustle and bustle that comes with it...lest you not forget the real and only Reason for the Season, Our Lord and Savior, Jesus Christ! Please keep Christ in Christmas!!!

On a lighter note, and in closing, thank all of you who have viewed the blog since its inception in August of 2009. Thank you for coming here for all the weather information you need. I hope that you will continue to do so, and help me gain viewership by spreading the word. Weather is my dream and my passion, and I am so dedicated to this. Thank you for letting me share some weather knowledge with you! It is your viewership that helps me keep this blog as fresh as possible. Look for bigger and better things to come on this blog in the near future. God bless all of you, and may His many blessings rain down on you this holiday season, and forever. Thank you, God bless, and Happy Thanksgiving! Now onto the forecast discussion...

The blog is in holiday mode now until Sunday night. There is no video blog unless some severe weather breaks out tomorrow night. The full length text block of the blog is available, please scroll down.


SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The Thanksgiving week warm spell rolls on, and conditions remain nearly unchanged as we head into Thanksgiving Day 2010. However, a change is gonna come within the next 24-30 hours. It was unseasonably warm once again today with highs up near 80 across the forecast area. It was warm and breezy with generally Partly to Mostly Cloudy skies. Conditions were relatively benign here compared to what is going in parts of the country on one of the busiest travel days of the year. The cold front which are awaiting remains nearly stationary off to our North, but will get the secondary push it needs from an advancing and digging trough later on tonight into first thing Thanksgiving morning. The warmth will continue unabated until then. Generally Partly to Mostly Cloudy skies are expected for the overnight hours, and fog should not much of an issue due to the continued long fetch Southerly flow that is intensifying over the area ahead of our latest storm system. Morning lows will once again be more representative of what daytime highs should be this time of year. Expect readings generally in the mid to upper 60s to start our Turkey Day. Thanksgiving Day will start out very much like the preceding days have. It will be Partly to Mostly Cloudy in the morning, with very little in the way of rainfall as the atmosphere remains largely capped for a little while longer. Conditions will begin to change after the big meal tomorrow afternoon, and as we all gather by the TV to watch the Saints play the Cowboys in Dallas. It will already be cold up there, and that is what we will have to look forward to.

The cold front will begin to make headway rather swiftly during the afternoon and evening hours on our Thanksgiving. It will enter the state during the afternoon, clearing the ARK-LA-TEX region first, and then pushing into this forecast area Thanksgiving evening. Moisture will pool ahead of the front, and the cap in the upper levels will erode. The front will create forcing and lifting, and an advancing surface low will add instability to the equation. However, the best dynamics will bypass this forecast area. That being said, showers and thunderstorms will develop across the area in advance of said frontal boundary. Rain chances will be in the 30-40% range for the afternoon hours as some scattered pre-frontal activity is anticipated, but as the front draws closer during the evening and overnight hours, rain chances will ramp up into the likely category. Mostly general showers and thunderstorms are expected with only marginal instability in place, however, there will be a small window of opportunity for an isolated severe storm or two somewhere in the forecast area. This looks to come along and just ahead of the sharp frontal boundary as a large mass of energy is discharged. This window looks to be generally between about 0Z and 6Z Friday (6p.m.-Midnight CST). The main threats from any severe weather would be damaging winds and large hail. The tornado threat will likely be almost non-existent. It seems likely that a solid line of showers and storms will form and congeal off to our NW and roll through the forecast area during the aforementioned time frame. The front will quickly exit into the coastal waters, and a complete reversal of fortune will take shape. Strong WAA will switch to strong CAA as the front flies on by. Temperatures will begin to fall like a rock. Highs will likely top out in the lower 80s Thanksgiving afternoon, but quickly fall eventually reaching the lower 40s by sunrise Friday. Strong Northerly winds will develop as well helping to usher in the cold air. A tight pressure gradient between the evacuating low and the advecting high will result in the strong winds.

Temperatures won't be the only thing falling by Thursday night. The rain will continue to be a fixture as well. We will endure a brief period of overrunning. The cold air will be shallow initially leaving a temporary warm air conduit flowing up above the surface around 850 mb. (5,000 ft.) This will produce a solid canopy of overrunning rains and some elevated convection through the overnight hours into the first part of Black Friday. Most of the rain in the wake of the front will generally be on the light to moderate side, but an occasional bout of heavy rain can't be ruled out with the continued instability in the upper levels. A cooler, stable surface air mass will eliminate any chance for severe weather in the post-frontal environment. The deeper colder air will lag behind just a bit, but will quickly move into the forecast area Friday morning. As the deeper cold air takes over, the period of overrunning rains will receive a cease and desist letter. Boundary layer moisture will continue to decrease, and by the afternoon hours we will begin to notice a decrease in cloud cover across the area as a strong Canadian high pressure builds into the forecast area. CAA will continue all the while. Temperatures will be in stark contrast on Black Friday when compared to Thanksgiving and the rest of the this week. Highs will struggle to reach the 50s with the lingering clouds and rain, and gusty winds. After the long stretch of warm weather, we will be talking about a wind chill Friday morning. Expect these readings to be in the 30s with the strong Northerly winds and colder temperatures near 40. It will feel even colder than that since it's been so warm this week. If you are planning on shopping for Black Friday, you will want to take the rain gear and a coat, but you may also want the sunglasses with the quick turnaround expected.

Throw a log on the fire and/or make a gumbo for Friday evening. The coldest night of the season is in store as CAA begins to cease. Skies be clear as a bell, and winds will decouple setting the stage for nearly the maximum radiative cooling potential. The end result will be a frosty start to the regular weekend days. It is certain that all areas North of I-10 will experience a light freeze with temperatures down into the upper 20s. However, areas which have not already experienced freezing temperatures this season, including here along the I-10 corridor stand a good chance to do so this go around. Models continue to hint at that possibility. I will reflect this in the official forecast as was the case in the previous forecast. It will be a beautiful day Saturday, but it will remain on the cool side as the cold Canadian high pressure will be anchored right overhead. We will fall short of the 60 degree mark, with highs only reaching the mid to upper 50s across the forecast area. If you are heading to Little Rock, AR for the LSU-Arkansas game, bring a coat! It will be quite chilly with highs only in the lower 50s at best with temperatures falling back into the 40s in the second half as the suns sets in the Ouachita Mountains. The clear skies and cold temperatures will continue into Sunday despite the end of CAA on Saturday. The strong high pressure will be pushing off to our East, and in turn winds will reverse course and shift back to off the Gulf on Sunday. Temperatures will moderate as well. Morning lows will be in the 30s once again, but most areas should avoid freezing, however, the coldest locations, may briefly touch it once again early Sunday. A much quicker and more pronounced warm up will ensue with the onshore flow in place Sunday. Expect highs to reach the low to mid 60s. It will a beautiful end to the Thanksgiving weekend, and it looks great for any outdoor plans after church. Humidity will be creeping back into the area in earnest by the evening hours as the Southerly flow intensifies ahead of another storm system.

The return flow offers a quick turnaround going into the new work week and the final days of November. The next potent storm system will be quickly approaching the forecast area as the day progresses Monday. Moisture will continue to increase with an intensifying onshore flow over the forecast area. The digging trough will direct the attendant cold front in our general direction late in the day Monday into Monday Night, and rain chances will return to the forecast at that time. Moisture will be pooling all day out ahead of the cold front, and scattered pre-frontal shower and thunderstorm activity will break out during the afternoon hours Monday. After the chilly weekend, morning temperatures will be significantly warmer reaching above normal levels once again. Lows should only be in the mid 50s or so. Afternoon highs will also be significantly warmer reaching back into the mid 70s across the forecast area. It appears as though conditions are becoming more favorable for a higher possibility of severe weather with this second system. Models indicate better dynamics and a greater amount of forcing over the area ahead of the front. The atmosphere will be highly energized with such a quick turnaround and a rapid disbursement of energy. It is certainly possible that a severe weather threat will materialize ahead of the front Monday evening and Monday night. Certainly, it appears as though a more significant rain event hangs in the balance with the potential for over 2" of rain possible across the forecast area.

The warm up ahead of this system will be much more short lived as the front will quickly push through heading into Tuesday thanks to a fast upper level flow across the Eastern 2/3 of the nation. The strong cold front with origins in Canada will quickly advance into the coastal waters as we head into the day on Tuesday. The pattern will transition back to a CAA regime. The front is currently depicted to move through the area in the pre-dawn hours on Tuesday. The window of opportunity for severe weather may come in a short time frame from late Monday night until about 3-4 a.m. Tuesday. The exact timing remains to be seen, as well as the degree of severe potential. Further fine tuning is anticipated as the system draws closer. I won't get too specific about the details just yet. It is prudent to get the Thanksgiving system out of the way first, and then enjoy the rest of the weekend before we hone in on said system. We will know a lot more specifics by the next time you hear from me on Sunday night. As it stands right now, it looks like there will be another period of post-frontal rain on Tuesday as some overrunning succeeds the front. These continued rains will make Tuesday a raw November day with CAA in place. Rain will be likely for the morning hours, and some embedded thunderstorms can't be ruled out with upper level instability in place. A very small diurnal range is expected with the rain and continued CAA. Morning lows will generally be in the low to mid 50s while highs struggle to reach the 60 degree mark. Rain will taper off during the afternoon as drier and colder air finally works into the boundary layer with high pressure becoming re-established at the surface. Skies clear and CAA continues Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. It will be a cold start to meteorological winter with lows down into the frosty category once again with readings generally in the low to mid 30s. Some areas will likely end up below freezing, and the forecast reflects this idea. The air mass behind the second front will be very similar to the one moving in for Friday. It will remain cool and dry with lots of sunshine for Wednesday with highs reaching the mid 50s, below the average for early December. The col and dry weather should persist into the first weekend of December.


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH  68/81  42/52  32/58  0 30 70 40 0 0
LFT   68/82  43/53  32/57  0 30 70 50 0 0
BPT   70/80  41/54  33/58  0 30 70 30 0 0
AEX  65/77  38/50  28/55  0 40 70 30 0 0
POE  65/77  39/50  28/55  0 40 70 30 0 0
ARA  69/81  45/54  34/57  0 30 70 50 0 0


Tonight...Partly to Mostly Cloudy. Low 68. SSE wind 10-15 mph.

Thanksgiving Day..Mostly Cloudy, Windy, & Continued Unseasonably Warm with a 30% chance of showers & thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 81. SSE wind 15-25 mph and gusty.

Thanksgiving Night...Cloudy with showers & thunderstorms likely. A few strong to severe storms possible. Turning Much Colder & Windy. Low 42. SSW wind 15-20 mph and gusty in the evening, becoming NNW at 20-25 mph and gusty overnight. Chance of rain 70%.

Friday...Mostly Cloudy, Much Colder, & Windy with a 40% chance of lingering rain in the morning. Rain ending by mid-morning with Decreasing Cloudiness in the afternoon. High 52. NNW wind 15-20 mph and gusty diminishing to 10-15 mph by late afternoon.

Friday Night...Clear & Cold with a light freeze possible along and North of I-10. Low 32. North wind 5-10 mph.

Saturday...Sunny & Cool. High 58. NE wind 5-10 mph.


Thanksgiving (Thursday) 11-25-10 Daily Planner

6a.m.

Weather: Mostly Cloudy











Temp: 68
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 12

9a.m.

Weather: Mostly Cloudy











Temp: 73
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 15

Noon

Weather: Mostly Cloudy w/ Lots of Turkey

Temp: 77
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 18

3p.m.

Weather: Mostly Cloudy w/ Some Scattered Showers & Storms











Temp: 81
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 20

6p.m.

Weather: Cloudy w/ the Coverage of Showers & Storms Increasing











Temp: 77
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSW 18

9p.m.

Weather: Showers & T-Storms Likely











Temp: 68
Rain: 70%
Wind: SSW 17



Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Thursday
11-25-10
Thanksgiving











Low: 68
High: 81
Rain: 30%...70% Night
Wind: SSE/SSW 15-25


Friday
11-26-10











Low: 42
High: 52
Rain: 40% A.M.
Wind: NNW 10-20
W.C.: 30-40


Saturday
11-27-10









Low: 32
High: 58
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
W.C.: 25-30


Sunday
11-28-10










Low: 35
High: 65
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 5-10
W.C.: 35-40


Monday
11-29-10

Low: 56
High: 75
Rain: 40% PM...80% Night
Wind: SSE 15-20


Tuesday
11-30-10











Low: 50
High: 55
Rain: 60%
Wind: NNW 15-20
W.C.: 40s


Wednesday
12-1-10









Low: 35
High: 56
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
W.C.: 25-35


...Tropics...

Totally Quiet.


...Marine Forecast...


Tonight...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.

Thanksgiving Day...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers. A slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Thanksgiving Night...West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet after midnight. Showers and thunderstorms likely.

Friday...North winds 20 to 25 knots becoming 15 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A slight chance of showers in the morning.

Friday Night...North winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.

Saturday...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the afternoon.


...Tide Data...

Thanksgiving Day Tides @ Calcasieu Pass

Low:        10:39a.m.      11:13p.m.
High:          1:40a.m.        7:22p.m.


...Toledo Bend Pool Level...

    163.97'


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...


Wednesday, November 24, 2010


Low:                70
Normal Low:   48
Record Low:   30-1970
High:                80
Normal High:   68
Record High:   87-1896

Rainfall

Today:                            Trace
Month to Date:                3.22"
Normal Month to Date:    3.67"
Year to Date:                 31.47"
Normal Year to Date:     51.65"
Record:                            2.41"- 1986

Sensible Weather Observed:

Fog


One Year Ago (2009)

Low:     49
High:     68
Rain:     0.00"


5 Years Ago (2005)

Low:      53
High:      77
Rain:     0.00"


10 Years Ago (2000)

Low:    54
High:    68
Rain:    1.34"


Sunrise Thursday:   6:46a.m.
Sunset  Thursday:   5:13p.m.


Hunting Times:

6:16a.m.-5:43p.m.


...Lunar Table...


Last Quarter- Sunday November 28

New Moon- Sunday December 5

First Quarter- Monday December 13

Full Moon- Tuesday December 21


Have a great Wednesday & God Bless!
-DM-

Warm Thanksgiving Week Weather Rolls On...Big Changes by Black Friday...

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

Click below to watch the latest edition of the video blog. Be sure to scroll down for the complete text block of the forecast.



SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Tuesday was yet another of very un-November like weather. The stagnant pattern of unseasonable warmth continued, and will be with us again today as well. A change is gonna come in the not so distant future, but for now we're stuck with the unseasonably warm and humid weather. Overall, our weather is not that bad compared to what is transpiring across a large portion of the country with everything from blizzard conditions to severe weather. Today will start off very similar to the preceding days with generally Mostly Cloudy with the low stratus deck present. Fog should not be that much of a problem due to increased mixing. However, the fog will be patchy in nature across the forecast area, and will certainly be more of an issue in areas that saw some rain on Tuesday. Morning lows will be quite warm generally in the upper 60s. These readings will be very similar to what our normal highs are this time of year. We are awaiting our next strong cold front, but at present it has slowed its forward progress this morning as the flow across our part of the world is parallel to the front. A strong high pressure over the SE U.S. is also holding up the front for the time being. Despite the copious amounts of low-level moisture, the remainder of the atmosphere will remain largely capped. Also, forcing will be at a negative with the lack of a trigger mechanism. Generally a Partly to Mostly Cloudy day is on tap. An isolated shower or two is possible mainly due to the impacts of daytime heating, but most of us will stay dry for another day. Afternoon highs will again reach or exceed the 80 degree mark. We won't approach records by any means, but it will certainly continue to feel very un-Thanksgiving like. Travel conditions will be more than manageable across this area, but use extreme caution if you are heading out of state towards the North into the Mid West or Mid Mississippi Valley.

Relative calmness continues for a little while longer for tonight into Thanksgiving morning. The unseasonable warmth will remain in place with the long fetch Southerly flow persisting. Generally Mostly Cloudy skies are expected, and temperatures will start out in the upper 60s once again. The strong cold front will finally begin to move towards our area during the day on Thanksgiving as an active Jet Stream shifts a deepening trough towards the Gulf coast. Moisture will pool out ahead of the front, but at the same time the best dynamics and lift will bypass our region. Nevertheless, the necessary lifting mechanism will be in place for some scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. The warmth will continue with highs near 80 once again, and shorts and T-shirts is how you should dress the turkey this year. A widespread rain event is not expected ahead of the cold front. No severe weather is expected either. The front will enter the forecast area from the NW during the afternoon, and push into the coastal waters quickly by Thanksgiving night. WAA will cease, and a transition to CAA will begin. This air mass does have some Arctic connections, and a very significant cool down will commence Thanksgiving night. Rain chances ahead of the front will be in the 30-40% range, however, rain chances will increase in the wake of the front. Overrunning will develop in the wake of the front, at least for a short time. The nature of the cold air will be shallow at first, and therefore, a layer of warm, moist air will ride up and over the infiltrating cold surface air. This SW flow aloft will create a saturated boundary layer, and the end result will be a period of widespread overrunning rains. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible as well with some elevated convection. The overnight hours into Friday morning will be our shot at widespread rain this go around. Rainfall totals could reach around an inch or so. As the rain falls, the temperatures will follow suit. After the highs near 80 on Thanksgiving, minimums by Friday morning will be well down into the 40s...certainly more like November ought to feel. If you are heading out to the stores for Black Friday shopping, you will want to have a coat or jacket and you might as well take the rain gear too. The apparent temperatures will be in the 30s with a strong offshore flow in place, and the ongoing rain.

Conditions will improve as the day progresses Friday. The overrunning rains will continue into the daylight hours, but will be coming to an end before noon most likely. The cold air mass filtering into the region will grow denser, and cold air will finally take over at all levels as winds shift aloft. The boundary layer will dry out, thus causing the end of the isentropic lift event. High pressure centered over the Rockies will build into the Gulf Coast region during the day, and skies will begin to clear in the afternoon. CAA will continue, and with the lingering rain and cloud cover for much of the day, high temperatures will struggle to reach the 50s. I have undercut guidance by several degrees, as models likely have a hard time judging the strength of the cold air. It is conceivable that some areas won't get out of the 40s, but I will reflect lower 50s for the time being. Certainly, it will by far be the coolest day we've seen so far this season, and this air mass will be the coldest air mass of the season thus far. The strong area of high pressure becomes further established by Friday night, and skies become totally clear. This sets the stage for a night of radiative cooling, and in turn the coldest night of the season is on tap. Lows will be in the 30s for most of us, but the coldest locales will dip into the upper 20s. The first freeze of the season could occur for the Lake Area, especially if models are indeed underestimating the strength of the cold air. Either way, it'll be time for a gumbo and to throw a log on the fire. CAA continues with the offshore flow, although winds will be much lighter as the high pressure builds closer to Louisiana.

The latter half of the long weekend will be clear and bright with high pressure in control. The cold start on Saturday with give way to a clear and cool day. Highs will reach the upper 50s, and CAA will cease. Air mass modification begins heading into Sunday with another cold start with lows back down into the 30s area wide. It will be warmer on Sunday afternoon with highs creeping back into the 60s. A return flow of Gulf air will commence during that time as well with the strong Canadian high pressure sliding off to our East into Dixie. Stepping back to Saturday for just a minute, there's a huge ball game in Little Rock, AR Saturday afternoon as LSU travels to play Arkansas in the annual Thanksgiving Rivalry Weekend game. It is a 2:30 p.m. kickoff, and you can expect a sunny day in Central Arkansas. It will be quite chilly with highs in the low 50s at best. Expect a game time temperature around 53, and that reading will fall into the 40s during the second half. The weather will be a lot more cooperative as everyone heads home from the long weekend. At least the cooler weather will also make it feel like the holidays. If you plan on decorating your home for Christmas, it will be perfect weather for that as well. Absolutely no mention of rain is slated for the holiday weekend after Friday morning.

Another storm system is in the fold for early next week as we close out the month of November already. Clouds will increase with a more pronounced Southerly flow in place Sunday night into Monday. Temperatures will be much warmer as well with morning lows back into the 50s on Monday morning as everyone heads back to work. Clouds increase further during the day Monday, and rain chances enter the fray by late in the day as another trough and attendant cold front slide toward the forecast area. Temperatures easily reach the 70s again for Monday afternoon with intensifying WAA, so it will be weather roller coaster, very typical of late November. Better chances for rain, perhaps in the likely category, will exist for Tuesday as said cold front moves through. All indications are this will be another strong front, but no severe weather is expected as the best dynamics will once again be absent in this forecast area. Temperatures will be mild with morning lows in the 50s once again. The timing of the front should push it through the area during the morning hours, and CAA will become re-established during the day. Temperatures reflect this with highs dropping back into the lower 60s. A very small diurnal range is indicated for the end of the forecast period. Rain should come to an end during the day Tuesday with fresh dose of high pressure building in. This should set the stage for a dry and chilly start to the month of December which looms just beyond this forecast period.


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH   68/81  66/80  44/52  0 10 10 30 70 60
LFT    68/82  67/81  45/53  0 10 10 30 70 60
BPT    69/82  67/80  43/52  0 10 10 30 70 60
AEX   65/83  66/77  40/48  0 10 20 30 70 60
POE   65/82  66/77  41/49  0 10 20 30 70 60
ARA   69/80  68/81  45/54  0 10 10 30 70 60


Today...Mostly Cloudy with some Partly Cloudy Intervals. Continued Unseasonably Warm & Humid. High 81. SSE wind 10-15 mph.

Tonight...Mostly Cloudy & Continued Warm & Humid. Low 66. SSE wind 10-15 mph.

Thanksgiving Day...Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers & thunderstorms developing in the afternoon. Warm & Humid. Windy. High 80. SSW wind 15-25 mph and gusty.

Thanksgiving Night...Cloudy with rain & a few thunderstorms likely. Turning Much Colder & Windy. Low 44. NNW wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 70%.

Friday...Cloudy, Cold, & Windy with rain likely early. Rain ending during the morning with decreasing clouds during the afternoon. High 52. NNW wind 15-20 mph and gusty, diminishing to 10-15 mph in the afternoon.Chance of rain 60% early.


Wednesday 11/24/10 Daily Planner

6a.m.

Weather: Mostly Cloudy, Some Patchy Fog











Temp: 68
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 11

9a.m.

Weather: Partly to Mostly Cloudy











Temp: 74
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 13

Noon

Weather: Mostly Cloudy











Temp: 78
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 15

3p.m.

Weather: Mostly Cloudy, Really Humid











Temp: 81
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 15

6p.m.

Weather: Mostly Cloudy












Temp: 78
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 10-15

9p.m.

Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 74
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 12


Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Wednesday
11-24-10











Low: 68
High: 81
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 10-15


Thursday
11-25-10
Thanksgiving Day...Happy Thanksgiving











Low: 66
High: 80
Rain: 30%...70% Night
Wind: SSW 15-25


Friday
11-26-10











Low: 44
High: 52
Rain: 60% AM
Wind: NNW 15-20
W.C.: 35-45


Saturday
11-27-10









Low: 32
High: 57
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
W.C.: 25-40 A.M.


Sunday
11-28-10









Low: 35
High: 63
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE/SE 5-10
W.C.: 35-45


Monday
11-29-10











Low: 57
High: 72
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15


Tuesday
11-30-10











Low: 51
High: 57
Rain: 60%
Wind: NNW 15-20
W.C.: 40s


...Tropical Update...

All is quiet on the tropical front.


...Marine Forecast...


Today
..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Patchy fog early in the morning.

Tonight...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.

Thanksgiving Day...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Isolated showers and thunderstorms.

Thanksgiving Night...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 15 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms.

Friday...North winds 20 to 25 knots becoming 15 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet in the afternoon. A chance of showers.



...Tide Data...


Wednesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass

Low:          9:54a.m.      10:14p.m.
High:          1:12a.m.        6:26p.m.


...Toledo Bend Pool Level...

    164.00'


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...


Tuesday, November 23, 2010


Low:                72
Normal Low:   48
Record Low:   28-1975
High:                82
Normal High:   68
Record High:   89-1896

Rainfall

Today:                             0.00"
Month to Date:                3.22"
Normal Month to Date:    3.51"
Year to Date:                 31.47"
Normal Year to Date:     51.49"
Record:                           1.80"- 1986

Sensible Weather Observed:

Fog


One Year Ago (2009)

Low:     51
High:     71
Rain:     0.00"


5 Years Ago (2005)

Low:      41
High:      77
Rain:     0.00"


10 Years Ago (2000)

Low:    48
High:    66
Rain:    0.29"


Sunrise Wednesday:   6:46a.m.
Sunset  Wednesday:   5:13p.m.


Hunting Times:

6:16a.m.-5:43p.m.


...Lunar Table...


Last Quarter- Sunday November 28

New Moon- Sunday December 5

First Quarter- Monday December 13

Full Moon- Tuesday December 21


Have a great Wednesday & God Bless!
-DM-