SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The nice fall weather returned to the forecast area today after a 2 day hiatus. It was a bit on the warm side with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to around 80. Mostly Sunny skies prevailed as dry air advected into the region in the wake of last night's front and the departing and decaying Ida. Aside from a few wrap around clouds on the back side of Ida, and some breezy conditions the weather was near perfect today. The Northerly winds of 15-25 mph at times will begin to decrease overnight as the pressure gradient weakens, with high pressure becoming dominant across the forecast area. Pleasant temperatures are expected overnight underneath clear skies. Expect minimums to be in the mid 50s...not too warm and not too cold! Ida is all but gone. It is an extratropical low over the SE U.S., and may pose a threat to the New England States and NE U.S. as a Nor'Easter later this week.
High pressure will ridge in from the NW keeping the beautiful weather in place. Wednesday will be very pleasant once again with highs in the mid 70s. Winds will be a bit less than today with a Northerly component about 10-15 mph. If you are off on Wednesday, enjoy it! It will be a great day for Veteran's Day. Just remember to pause to reflect and thank those who have served and are serving this great nation...they are our real heroes!!! Thank you, Veterans and God bless all of you! The only active weather to speak of on Wednesday will continue to be the extratropical form of Ida over the SE. Lots of rain is expected across the SE and Mid-Atlantic the next few days. The quiet weather will prevail for the remainder of the work week as ridging processes keep a stranglehold on the forecast area. Temperatures will cool off as a secondary front moves through the region Wednesday afternoon. No weather will be noticed with this front as nary a cloud will be found. The cooler temperatures will be felt beginning Wednesday night with overnight lows ranging from the upper 40s to lower 50s, but even cooler readings are expected Thursday night with 40s area wide. Afternoon highs will cool off a tad from the mid 70s to lower to middle 70s for both Thursday and Friday. A Northerly flow will persist at the surface and the upper levels, and this will keep very dry air in place. Expect very pleasant humidity values for Thursday and Friday. Friday night looks fantastic as well for all the High School Football First Round Playoff games. It will strictly be a temperature forecast for the next few days.
Over the weekend, some changes will occur. Saturday will still be very nice, but a warming and humidifying trend will begin as the controlling high slides away from the area. This will reverse winds from offshore to onshore, and moisture will begin creeping back into the area only modestly at first, as everything has been flushed well down into the Gulf. A moderating trend with temperatures will ensue as well, but only modest. Lows should be back into the 50s while highs may reach above normal levels in the mid to upper 70s once again. With the subtle moisture return, skies are expected to remain cloud free for one more day as it will still feel very pleasant. Cloudiness returns on Sunday ahead of our next front. This front should arrive late in the day or overnight. There are still some timing issues this far out, but the general consensus is sometime late Sunday. While there will be some moisture return from the Gulf, moisture in the mid and upper levels will be lacking, and only a slight chance of a shower is expected ahead of the front. Mild temperatures are expected ahead of the front with lows close to 60, and highs in the mid to upper 70s. Partly Cloudy skies will be indicated for the forecast, as some sunshine is still expected especially early on Sunday.
Monday-Tuesday...The cold front clears the area Monday morning, and any lingering moisture will be scoured out. A slight chance of a shower will carry over into Monday morning for this reason, but if all indications are correct no big threat of rain is expected with this boundary. The front will likely be the strongest front so far this Fall. Much drier and cooler air will be ushered in behind it as a strong CAA regime is expected. Morning lows on Monday will be in the mid 50s, while highs only reach the mid 60s with skies clearing during the day. Tuesday will be clear and bright, and a bit on the cool side. Under sunny skies, a cool start is expected with low to mid 40s area wide, while afternoon highs reach the mid 60s. The nice and cool air mass should persist into the middle of next week, before a potentially more potent storm system moves into the area pre-Thanksgiving weekend.
Tropics: After a rare, late season storm with Ida the tropics are calming down. Ida is an extratropical low centered in the SE U.S. centered over SW Georgia. The rains from Ida are spreading well Northward from the center into the Mid-Atlantic States. The low will move Eastward through Wednesday, with rain continuing across the SE U.S. and Mid-Atlantic. The low is expected to move into the Atlantic Ocean late Wednesday or Thursday, and become a Nor'Easter. The Nor'Easter will ride up the East Coast at the end of the week, and bring stormy conditions to the Northeastern U.S. Later this week, I will post some historical info about landfalling November tropical systems. Ida was a late season storm, but certainly not the first storm in history in the Gulf of Mexico in the season's final month. It was a reminder to us that it is indeed still hurricane season.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 55/75 49/71 46/73 0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 55/75 50/71 47/72 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 56/76 51/71 49/73 0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 51/74 45/68 43/71 0 0 0 0 0 0
POE 52/74 46/69 44/71 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 57/76 51/72 48/72 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tonight...Clear. Low 55. North wind 5-10 mph.
Veteran's Day...Sunny. High 75. North wind 10-15 mph.
Wednesday Night...Clear and Cool. Low 49. Light North wind.
Thursday...Sunny. High 71. North wind 5-10 mph.
Thursday Night...Clear and Cool. Low 46. Calm wind.
Friday...Sunny. High 73. NE wind 5-10 mph.
Drew's 7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity
Wednesday
11-11-09
Veteran's Day
Low: 55
High: 75
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10-15
Thursday
11-12-09
Low: 49
High: 71
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
Friday
11-13-09
Low: 46
High: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
Saturday
11-14-09
Low: 52
High: 77
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 5-10
Sunday
11-15-09
Low: 57
High: 78
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Monday
11-16-09
Low: 55
High: 65
Rain: 20%
Wind: NNW 15-20
Tuesday
11-17-09
Low: 45
High: 66
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
...Marine Forecast...
*Small Craft Advisory in effect through Wednesday afternoon.*
Wednesday...North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 4 to 6 feet in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night...North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday...Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 3 feet in the afternoon.
Thursday Night...East winds around 5 knots becoming southeast after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Friday...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
...Tide Data...
Wednesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:
Low: 5:12a.m. 4:42p.m.
High: 9:32a.m. 10:08p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
172.70'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Low: 62
Normal Low: 51
Record Low: 29-1991
High: 80
Normal High: 72
Record High: 88-1916
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 0.05"
Normal Month to Date: 1.44"
Year to Date: 61.99"
Normal Year to Date: 49.42"
Record: 3.92"-1929
Sunrise Wednesday: 6:35a.m.
Sunset Wednesday: 5:19p.m.
Hunting Times: 6:05a.m.-5:49p.m.
...Lunar Table...
New Moon- November 16
First Quarter- November 24
Full Moon- December 2
Last Quarter- December 9
Thanks to all those who proudly serve and have served this great nation!!!
Good night and God bless!
-DM-
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