Sunday, March 31, 2019: ***March Goes Out Like a Lamb as We Roll into Feb...I mean April***
I hope this message finds you well. This final weekend of March has certainly been a tale of two seasons, maybe three!!! Saturday was warm, breezy, & humid with spotty showers until the evening when a narrow line of showers right along the front impacted almost everyone. Temperatures were nearly 80 on Saturday, but in the wake of the sharp winterlike cold front, temperatures on this overcast Sunday remained in the 50s, some 25-30 colder than that of Saturday. The overcast and windy conditions certainly made it feel even much colder than it actually was on this Sunday with apparent temperatures in the 40s throughout the day.
This is no fooling as we start April with Monday being April Fool's Day, skies clear out tonight & temperatures fall into the "I need to make a gumbo" category...as the title suggest: It'll feel more like February 1st as opposed to April 1st. Get this: temperatures will be in the mid 30s in the coldest locations to lower 40s here along I-10 while it is even in the 40s at the coast to start out April. The biting NNW wind will only decay somewhat, so we will contend with a wind chill for Monday morning as well. The apparent temperatures will be in the low to mid 30s. At least, there'll be a decent supply of sunshine to start our Monday. However, cloudiness will likely increase after lunch time as a weak disturbance moves into the region. Surface dry air is at a maximum, so while this minor disturbance may help to generate some light showers and/or drizzle, the majority of the rain will likely evaporate before reaching the ground (virga). Radar may look worse than it is actually going to be, so the prospects of any actual measurable rain is only 20%. Rainfall amounts will be a trace to a few hundredths at the most, and most of us will record a 0 in the rain column. This disturbance combined with continued CAA will thwart a significant warm up with model data suggesting highs fall short of the 60 degree threshold. The normal high for April 1 is 75.
The previously mentioned disturbance will be a quick mover, so we clear out in earnest Monday night & as winds decouple (slack off) with high pressure moving very close to the area, the stage will be set for a night of maximum radiational cooling heading into Tuesday morning. Dare I say there might be some frost? Especially North of I-10 frost seems like a good bet right around sunrise when temps will be in the low to mid 30s. Upper 30s should be just warm enough to keep those of us along I-10 out of the frost category, but maybe a patch or two in rural areas. Either way, it will be a cold start to an otherwise glorious day on Tuesday. The warm up finally ensues full throttle, but we will still fall short of the normal values with readings in the upper 60s. Tranquil weather rules the roost through Wednesday with all the Vitamin D you can stand. Still cool Wednesday morning with mid to upper 40s, but we do manage to top out in the low to mid 70s for maximums. A return flow of Gulf moisture may temper the warm up a bit, but we will certainly be in line to transition from below normal to above normal by the second half of the week.
Speaking of the second half of the work week; while a warm up commences, it may come with the prospects of our first possibility of severe weather this season. There's been a couple of isolated severe storms in the last few weeks, but this time the pattern favors perhaps something more significant. Severe weather threat or not, rain chances do return Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. The culprit will be potent perturbation embedded in the generally zonal flow that could lead to rather robust ramifications for some. The marriage of this advecting short wave & cold front will lead to the development of some scattered shower activity Thursday morning as deeper moisture streams in from the Gulf, but the main thrust of this system will likely be in the afternoon hours. A line of showers & thunderstorms will congeal to our West & move through the forecast area during the afternoon & evening hours. Exact timing will be divulged as we get closer. The good news is that it should be relatively quick mover, so the mischief should terminate before we retire for the night. The associated cold front will be rather fickle, so don't expect much temperature change by Friday. If anything, it may actually be warmer on Friday than that of Thursday. We certainly make the transition back to above normal with upper 70s Thursday & we easily eclipse the 80 degree threshold Friday. Rain chances should be sequestered Friday, but not totally. A general mix of sun & clouds is in the offing. The effects of daytime heating & streaming moisture in between systems could allow for a couple pop-up showers Friday afternoon.
Now, of course, who isn't already focused on another weekend? The first weekend of April doesn't look to contain any Absolutely Awesome April weather. Saturday will likely be the better of the weekend days, but there will certainly be an opportunity for rain to occur on Saturday as well. However, at least at this juncture any activities early in the day should be fine, be it a baseball or softball game, or you just need to mow the grass. A warm & breezy day hangs in the balance; quite honestly it could be a repeat of yesterday. A more significant Spring storm system will be in transit & it effects will begin to impinge on our part of the world Saturday evening & Saturday night. Showers & thunderstorms will be present on a hit or miss basis until Sunday. This is when the next cold front crosses our corridor. Certainly expect revisions to this portion of the forecast as we get closer, but as it stands right now showers & thunderstorms will be likely Sunday. There does appear to be a severe weather element with this perturbation, but to what extent is still up for conjecture. Mild mornings & warm afternoons expected for both weekend days with lows in the mid to even upper 60s, and highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Sunday could be a few degrees cooler because of the effects of more rain. There is some wonderment right now from long range model data as to whether or not this front will clear the region or if it will take a secondary surge a week from tomorrow to produce this positive result.
I will wrap this up now that I've probably put y'all to sleep. I know its quite long, but when there's a lot to discuss I can't help myself. I get in the zone & become a full-fledged nerd. Anywho, thanks for reading my spiel. Have a great Monday, & watch your back from anyone trying to pull a fast one on you for April Fools. God Bless!
-DM-
