Before I get to the forecast, I would like to extend my condolences, thoughts, and prayers to all the victims and their families and friends at Fort Hood, TX and around the country after the senseless tragedy that occurred there this afternoon. These brave men and women gave up everything to defend our great country, and 12 of them have their lives taken from them because of a senseless act of violence. 31 other people were injured in the disaster. May God bless all of you, and keep America safe from all enemies foreign and domestic. Please take a moment to stop and reflect and pray for all of those affected by this awful act.
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The streak continues! For the 6th straight day high pressure controlled the weather across the forecast area. Another re-enforcing shot of dry air moved through with very little fanfare aside from a brief increase in NE winds this afternoon. Temperatures were at or just above normal with readings in the mid to upper 70s. A clear and quiet night is in store tonight as the large high pressure remains in control. Seasonably cool weather is expected with lows ranging from the mid 40s to lower 50s with light winds. Friday will bring about a continuance of the beautiful weather we've had this week with the dominating high the main weather feature once again. Afternoon readings on Friday will be very similar to that of today with mid 70s once again. Great weather will continue for Friday night, so it'll be very pleasant for all High School Football games. Skies will be clear, and expect a kickoff temperature in the mid 60s before dropping into the upper 50s by the end of the game.
The nice weather will continue into Saturday, but some notable changes will occur. Winds will be increasing over land, and even more so over the coastal waters. Breezy conditions will develop as the nice storm system to affect our area takes shape. There are several players that will come together for the resultant increase in wind. First, the controlling high pressure will begin to slide NE and loosen its grip on the area. Second, an area of non-tropical cloudiness and showers in the SW Gulf of Mexico that has been present all week will begin moving Northward towards our area. Non-tropical cyclogenesis may occur, and as this occurs the pressure differences associated with the large high pressure and the developing low will engender the breezy conditions. At the same time, what's left of Ida will be in the Western Caribbean at this time, and this will also help to tighten the pressure gradient. The position of the anticyclone will result in an East wind by Saturday afternoon. Water may begin to pile up at the coast as a persistent East wind is established this could result in some coastal flooding. This is a situation that will be addressed in later forecast periods. Over land expect E to NE winds about 15-20 mph. Skies should remain clear for much of the day Saturday as the deep moisture will still be far enough offshore to keep clouds absent until late in the day, when some cloud cover will begin to move in. The temperature forecast for Saturday will be very similar to Friday. Dry weather persists for Saturday night, but moisture levels increase. There will be no threat of rain for the McNeese game, and milder temperatures are expected because of the increasing clouds and low-level return flow. McNeese is hosting Sam Houston State at 7p.m. in a Southland Conference Tilt in the Hole. There will be threat of rain for the LSU game either. The Tigers play on the road at Alabama at 2:30p.m. It should be a fantastic fall weather day in Dixie, for this huge ball game in a battle for the SEC West. Expect overnight lows in the mid 50s. Temperatures at game time will be in the lower 60s, and not really move a whole lot during the game.For the game in Tuscaloosa, AL temperatures should be in the low 70s falling into the 60s by game's end.
On Sunday, much of the day will be dry, but moisture levels and cloud cover will continue to increase as the enhanced moisture over the SW Gulf continues to surge Northward, and the next trough advances Eastward. The breezy conditions will continue as well. Afternoon highs will be in the lower 70s in response to the winds blowing in off the cool Gulf waters. By this time, what's left of Ida will be between Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula moving Northward towards the Southern Gulf if it survives at all, more on Ida in the tropical section. Whatever becomes of Ida will not have an impact on our area, as it will be the SW Gulf low that is the key player in our weather. For much of the day Sunday, showers and thunderstorms will be lurking in the offshore waters, as this area will be poised to move Northward later in the day, and by late afternoon Sunday into Sunday evening showers and thunderstorms will develop across the forecast area and move Northward as the influx of moisture from the Bay of Campeche is pulled Northward in response to the approaching trough and attendant cold front. This spells a wet period for the forecast area with rain likely for Sunday night through Monday. No severe weather is expected, but periods of heavy rain are possible and 1-3" of rain is expected for this event with higher amounts of 4-5" possible somewhere in the forecast area. Rain chances will likely be nearly maxed out over this period, but I will hold them down a category or two until there is a bit more clarity with the amount and timing of rainfall as the system gets closer. With area rivers still in flood, any rain will certainly exacerbate the flooding situation, and this will be monitored closely in the days to come. See the latest river stages momentarily. Mild conditions will prevail ahead of the front on Monday, so expect overnight minimums in the rain Sunday night to be in the lower 60s while Monday highs recover to the mid 70s. As of right now, the front should be moving into the forecast area during the afternoon, and reach Lake Charles around 6p.m.. clearing the entire forecast area by midnight Tuesday.
Rain chances will persist until frontal passage. The front will scour out the deep influx of tropical moisture overnight Monday, and conditions will begin improving in the wake of the front as a CAA pattern is established once again. The front will mark an end to the widespread showers and thunderstorms as well as any coastal flooding threat, but it will remain breezy behind the front as the low departs and high pressure begins to work into the area. It'll be a squeeze play of sorts with the high building in, the non-tropical low, and the remnant low of Ida over the Gulf. Monday night temperatures will drop into the upper 50s to near 60 with clouds hanging tough as the much deeper drier air lags behind for a bit Small rain chances are maintained for Tuesday as some residual moisture lingers over the forecast area in between the front and the building high. The overcast and breezy conditions should keep it on the cool side with highs struggling to reach 70. The weather continues to improve in the wake of the front as resumption of a NW flow becomes established behind Monday's front.
The forecast at mid-week could be a complicated one if Ida's circulation is somewhere over the Gulf. It is safe to assume that Ida will have no direct effect on Louisiana, but its location at the mid-week period could result in some indirect effects. As I said moments ago, a squeeze play could initiate based on the interaction between a building high from the Rockies, and the tropical entity in the Gulf. This would allow for the breezy conditions that develop over the weekend to continue, but the high should be strong enough to keep rain offshore to our SE. Some high cloudiness being sheared off from Ida could move across the area, but after Tuesday a dry forecast is inserted with pleasant temperatures. Expect lows to cool into the 40s and highs just a tad under the 70 degree threshold. I stress that there are many uncertainties with the day 6-7 and the eventual track of Ida. There will be a lot of things working against Ida being able to maintain itself. Sea surface temperatures are way too cool to support tropical development in the Central and Northern Gulf waters. There will also be significant wind shear over the Northern and Central Gulf by the time Ida reaches the Central Gulf. This would tear the system apart. It is also possible that the circulation of Ida will get caught up in the SW flow out ahead of the cold front, and this would pull it to the NE and then it would morph into the trough and become extratropical.
Tropics: Ida, which formed on Wednesday, became the 3rd Hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season early this morning shortly before making landfall in Nicaragua. Ida has been a slow mover, and this could be disastrous for Central America with very heavy rain and potentially life-threatening mud slides and flash floods. Ida made landfall as a category 1 storm with 75 mph, and now that it is over land it has weakened considerably tonight having spun down to a Tropical Depression. There is some doubt whether or not Ida's circulation will be able to survive over Central America as it trudges only slowly Northward. The idea of the storm completely fizzling out over land, and never re-emerging is currently a possibility. As of right now, however, the official forecast track brings the remains of Ida into the Western Gulf Saturday with re-strengthening expected. A track into the Southern and Central Gulf as a tropical storm is currently shown by the National Hurricane Center, but the eventual track of Ida is all dependent on how the corresponding weather events evolve.
Tropical Depression Ida
Thursday 11/5/09 10p.m. CST
Latitude: 14.1 N
Longitude: 84.0 W
This is about 40 miles W of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua.
Winds: 35 mph with higher gusts near the center. Ida will continue to weaken as long as its over land over Central America, but some restrengthening is expected once the center of circulation emerges into the Western Caribbean Sea on Saturday.
Movement: NNW at 5 mph. A turn to the North at a slightly faster forward speed is expected during the day Friday bringing the center of circulation over the Western Caribbean Saturday.
Pressure: 29.68" or 1005 mb.
Elsewhere, the tropics are quiet, and this will be case through the weekend. The season is nearing its official end in a little over 3 weeks. This section of the forecast package will be discontinued at that time until June 1, 2010.
Now, here are the latest river stages & forecasts:
The Sabine River is in major flood, and will remain in that state through the weekend, with the worst of the flooding expected along the river from Deweyville to Bon Wier. Significant flooding of areas closest to the river in Calcasieu and Beauregard Parishes will occur as well as Orange and Newton Counties in SE Texas.
Sabine River
Location Flood Stage Current Stage Forecast
Bon Wier 36' 36.2' Crested
Deweyville 24' 26.6' 28' Saturday PM
Neches River
Location Flood Stage Current Stage Forecast
Town Bluff 64' 64.6' Hold Near 64.5' through the weekend
Calcasieu River
Location Flood Stage Current Stage Forecast
Glenmora 12' 13.8' Crested Slow Fall Through the Weekend
Oberlin 13' 16.5' Crested, Falling Below FS Saturday PM
Kinder 16' 14.3' 16.5' Saturday PM
Old Town Bay 4' 4' 4.4' Monday AM
Red River
Location Flood Stage Current Stage Forecast
Alexandria 32' 32.1' Crested & will fall below FS Friday PM
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 53/76 53/77 58/74 0 0 0 0 0 30
LFT 55/77 54/77 56/74 0 0 0 0 0 30
BPT 56/78 56/76 59/75 0 0 0 0 0 40
AEX 48/76 48/77 53/72 0 0 0 0 0 20
POE 49/76 49/77 54/73 0 0 0 0 0 20
Tonight...Clear. Low 53. Calm wind.
Friday...Sunny. High 76. NE wind 10 mph.
Friday Night...Clear. Low 53. Calm wind.
Saturday...Sunny. High 77. East wind 10-15 mph.
Saturday Night...Increasing Cloudiness. Low 58. East wind 10 mph.
Sunday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms after 4p.m. High 74. SSE wind 15-20 mph and gusty.
Drew's 7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity
Friday
11-6-09
Low: 53
High: 76
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
Saturday
11-7-09
Low: 53
High: 77
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 10-15
Sunday
11-8-09
Low: 58
High: 74
Rain: 30% Late PM
Wind: SSE 15-20
Monday
11-9-09
Low: 61
High: 75
Rain: 70%
Wind: SSE/NNW 15-20
Tuesday
11-10-09
Low: 57
High: 67
Rain: 20%
Wind: NNW 15-20
Wednesday
11-11-09
Low: 46
High: 66
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10-15
Thursday
11-12-09
Low: 48
High: 69
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNE 10-15
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Friday...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Friday Night...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Saturday...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday Night...East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet building to 4 to 6 feet after midnight. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Sunday...Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
...Tide Data...
Friday Tides:
Low: 10:41a.m. 10:44p.m.
High: 12:07a.m. 7:12p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
172.62'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary....
Thursday, November 5, 2009
Low: 52
Normal Low: 52
Record Low: 29-1991
High: 79
Normal High: 74
Record High: 88-1915
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 0.00"
Normal Month to Date: 0.69"
Year to Date: 61.94"
Normal Year to Date: 48.67"
Record: 3.74"-2002
Sunrise Friday: 6:31a.m.
Sunset Friday: 5:22p.m.
Hunting Times: 6:01a.m.-5:52p.m.
Good night and God bless!
-DM-
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