SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...After a brief taste of fall, the warm moist air has returned to the area ahead of a strong cold front. A pronounced Southerly flow dominated the forecast tonight, bringing back the warm muggies during the day after a pleasant morning. It was a dry day for most with Partly Cloudy skies in place, however, a few isolated showers occurred across parts of the area. Temperatures were seasonable for the day with maximums in the lower 80s. It is quiet across the forecast area for the time being tonight, but showers and thunderstorms will move into the region after midnight ahead of the advancing front.
Looking at radar at this time shows a line of strong to severe thunderstorms moving to the ESE from Central Arkansas down into North Louisiana encroaching on Monroe back through Shreveport extending SW to near Lufkin, TX to Bryan-College Station, TX. The most intense part of this line at this time was over NW Louisiana between Shreveport and Ruston and near the end of line NE of Bryan-College Station. This entire area is ahead of the cold front which is moving rather quickly to the SE. It is already through Tyler and Texarkana, and will move into our forecast area in the wee hours of Friday morning between 3 and 4a.m. The main threat for severe weather is expected to remain across the Northern half of the state, and the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the Northern half of the state. It's actually 2 different watches, one for North and NW Louisiana including Shreveport until 2 a.m. and just recently, a new watch was issued to encompass the rest of North Louisiana, NE Louisiana, and parts of Central Louisiana until 4 a.m. This includes Monroe and Natchitoches. The southern border of this new Severe Thunderstorm Watch is at the northern edge of the forecast area. It is possible that a watch will be issued further South later tonight or early Friday for all or parts of our area, but at this time a watch doesn't appear likely around here. The main threats with the ongoing storms to our North is high wind and hail. A very small tornado threat exist with the current set up, but this seems much less likely considering the time of year and the dynamics in place. The entire forecast area is highlighted for a slight risk of severe weather by the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK.
Ahead of the main squall line (MCS), a few scattered showers have developed across the forecast area right near Lake Charles. This will continue to be the case through the night as moisture streams across the area ahead of the front. Only brief periods of showers, or a quick thunderstorm is possible until the MCS arrives.
A deep Southerly flow will prevail tonight and this will allow for dew points and moisture to continue to increase across the area. Rain chances will increase throughout the night, reaching their peak around daybreak before ending entirely by mid-morning Friday. The presence of the Subtropical Jet Stream, which is a dominant feature in an El Nino pattern, will aid in a severe weather threat for the forecast area. Early October is a bit premature for severe weather across the area, but in an El Nino year, it is not uncommon. The Jet will add to the already present impressive dynamics. A limiting factor for severe weather across our area is the Gulf of Mexico itself. Fast winds in the upper levels streaming across the area from SW to NE will result in a few storms reaching severe limits late tonight, but with the best dynamics displaced to our North, any severe storm across our area should be on an isolated nature, therefore, I currently do not anticipate the issuance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch, but stay tuned. The best Jet dynamics (fastest winds aloft) will be across Northern portions of our forecast area, so this is where the strongest storms should be, though everyone will certainly see some heavy rain and gusty winds with the line of thunderstorms as it moves through. The most likely time frame for the worst of the weather should be between 4 and 8 a.m. The storms will likely be near Lake Charles around sunrise, and clear the entire area by late morning. The cold front will come shortly behind the squall line, and should be through Lake Charles by mid-morning, and Lafayette by noon. Conditions will quickly improve behind the line of thunderstorms, with a short period of showers before tapering off. Temperatures for the overnight will certainly not be anything like what they should be for October with readings only reaching near 70 underneath Mostly Cloudy skies.
It will be a stormy start to Friday with the storms moving in, and after 1-2" of rain across the area Friday morning, clouds will begin to decrease around lunch time with some sunshine expected for the afternoon with cooler and drier air filtering in as a high pressure moves out of the Great Plains into the Mid West. This is good news for all the of High School Football games and any other outdoor activities scheduled for Friday night. For Friday highs, expect readings around the seasonable mark very near 80. Winds will shift from SE tonight to SW behind the MCS to NW behind the cold front. A good deal of sunshine should round out the day as the front pushes into SE Louisiana. Friday night will be nice with clear and cool conditions with lows down into the mid to upper 50s for Saturday morning. Temperatures should be in the lower 70s during the evening before falling into the 60s before the end of the football games. Saturday will start off on a very nice note with clear skies and cool temps in the 50s, but just like this past go around, the cool, dry air will be short-lived as the front stalls out just offshore as it bumps into the controlling Subtropical Jet Stream with strong SW winds aloft.
Clouds will return by Saturday afternoon putting an end to any sunshine that we get on Saturday morning. At the same time, moisture will be pooling over the Gulf ahead of the front, and will be poised to move inland. Rain chances will return late Saturday and especially Saturday night as the fronts becomes a warm front, and retreats Northward over the area. This will bring rain chances back into the likely category for Saturday night and Sunday as the warm front lifts to the North of I-10, and disturbances embedded in the Subtropical Jet Stream move across the area from SW to NE. Saturday will be a pleasant day with highs near 80, but with the front retreating the warm and moist air will quickly replace the cool dry air, so Saturday night temperatures will be much warmer than that of Friday night with mid 60s at best. Rain and thunderstorms will be likely on Sunday as the front remains in our general vicinity. The warm and moist flow off the Gulf will continue, and the front won't move much either way through Monday, so expect rain chances to remain high into the new work week. Sadly, it will feel more like summer as we start the new work week with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s and lows only falling to the lower 70s at best. Timing differences with each disturbance as forecast by the models make it difficult to pin point exactly when and where the highest rain chances will be, but regardless they will be in the likely category for Sunday and Monday.
Persistence will be the name of the game in the latter periods of the forecast for Tuesday through Thursday. The main Jet Stream that drives cold front down into the area will remain lodged up to our North as a blocking high over the SE keeps it from shifting. This means we will remain in the warm and moist flow off the Gulf with more energy from the Subtropical Jet Stream sending embedded disturbances across the forecast area from time to time each day. Thus, rain chances remain in the forecast, though without the effects of a major forcing mechanism such as a front, they will be lower than those of the Sunday-Monday period. The temperature regime during this time will certainly leave a lot to be desired for those of us looking for fall as unseasonable warmth will dominate with highs up near 90 expected, and lows in the low to mid 70s. More sunshine on these days will allow for such warmth, but there will still be ample clouds as well, and a wording of Partly to Mostly Cloudy will be given to denote sky conditions for this period. Much cooler weather will hopefully head our way behind a strong front as the pattern shifts to a more favorable regime just beyond this forecast period. Stay tuned for more severe weather updates throughout the night.
Tropics: All is quiet in the Atlantic Basin as we enter the month of October. No tropical storm formation is expected through the weekend.
Preliminary Numbers and Zone Forecast:
LCH 70/80 58/81 64/83 70 80 0 30 70 70
LFT 69/81 57/81 63/83 70 90 0 30 70 70
BPT 72/82 60/82 66/83 70 60 0 30 70 70
AEX 65/78 53/79 60/81 80 60 0 20 60 70
POE 66/78 53/80 61/81 80 60 0 20 60 70
ARA 71/81 58/81 65/82 70 90 0 40 60 70
Tonight..Mostly Cloudy with a 70% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall, and some isolated severe storms with damaging winds and large hail possible towards morning. Low 70. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Friday...Mostly Cloudy with an 80% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall, and isolated severe storms with damaging winds and large hail possible early. Rain ending by mid-morning with Decreasing Cloudiness from late morning through mid-afternoon. Becoming Sunny late. Turning Cooler and Windy. High 80. SSW wind 10-15 mph in the morning, becoming NNW at 15-20 mph and gusty by noon.
Friday Night...Clear and Cool. Low 58. North wind 10 mph.
Saturday...Sunny in the morning with Increasing Cloudiness in the afternoon. Becoming Cloudy by late afternoon with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms late. High 81. NE wind 10-15 mph.
Saturday Night...Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Heavy rainfall possible at times. Low 64. East wind 10-15 mph, becoming SE overnight. Chance of rain 70%.
Sunday...Cloudy with rain and thunderstorms likely. Heavy rainfall possible at times. High 83. SE wind 10-15 mph.
7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity
Friday
10-2-09
Low: 70
High: 80
Precip: 80% AM
Wind: SSW/NNW 10-20
Saturday
10-3-09
Low: 58
High: 81
Precip: 30% PM
Wind: NE 10-15
Sunday
10-4-09
Low: 64
High: 83
Precip: 70%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Monday
10-5-09
Low: 72
High: 87
Precip: 60%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Tuesday
10-6-09
Low: 74
High: 90
Precip: 40%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Wednesday
10-7-09
Low: 73
High: 88
Precip: 50%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Thursday
10-7-09
Low:71
High: 84
Precip: 40%
Wind: SSW 10-15
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...South winds 15-20 knots. Seas 3-4 feet building to 3-5 feet after midnight. A chance of showers and thunderstorms early in the evening...then showers and thunderstorms likely after midnight.
Friday...Northwest winds 15-20 knots becoming northeast in the afternoon. Seas 3-5 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Friday Night...East winds 10-15 knots. Seas 1-3 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight.
Saturday...East winds 10-15 knots increasing to 15-20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1-3 feet building to 2-3 feet in the afternoon. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Saturday Night...Southeast winds 15-20 knots. Seas 2-4 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Sunday...Southeast winds 15-20 knots. Seas 2-4 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
...Tide Data...
Friday Tides:
Low: 8:26a.m. 8:35p.m.
High: 1:44a.m. 1:44p.m.
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Thursday, October 1, 2009
Low: 65
Normal Low: 64
Record Low: 42-1924
High: 88
Normal High: 85
Record High: 97-1904
Rainfall:
Today: 0.02"
Month to Date: 0.02"
Normal Month to Date: 0.16"
Year to Date: 47.00"
Normal Year to Date: 44.20"
Record: 1.60"-1983
Sunrise Friday: 7:07a.m.
Sunset Friday: 6:57p.m.
Good night and God bless!
-DM-
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