SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Moisture continues to increase off the Gulf tonight ahead of the encroaching storm system. Cloud cover and humidity increased in earnest across the forecast area today as a low-level Southerly flow continued to strengthen ahead of said storm system. It was a warm afternoon with highs exceeding 80 degrees save for coastal locations. At present, there's just some scattered shower and thunderstorm activity mainly over SE Texas. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are ongoing over a large part of Texas mainly West of Houston to San Antonio to up through Dallas-Fort Worth and into the ARK-LA-TEX region. All of this is in advance of our next cold front. The remnants of Hurricane Rick are inland over the mountains of Mexico, and are moving NE tonight in response to a strong SW flow out ahead of the deepening trough over the Great Plains. This moisture will stream NE into our area on Thursday ahead of the front. The advancing front will also tap into the high moisture content of the atmosphere in place once it gets closer to the Gulf. This all spells a very wet period for the forecast area. Expect warm and humid conditions overnight with not much cooling expected as temperatures only drop into the upper 60s to lower 70s. With the front approaching, winds will remain up overnight as well with gusts over 20 mph at times.
Overnight, rain will develop across the area, and while it will be scattered in nature at first, as we head towards morning, widespread shower and thunderstorm activity is expected across the entire forecast area as the tropical moisture and convergence ahead of the front work in tandem to produce significant rainfall. Thursday will be a very wet, and rain chances are maxed out. Heavy rainfall is likely, however the severe weather threat remains very miniscule at this time. There appears to be enough instability fin place or one or two severe storms across the forecast area Thursday afternoon, but for the most part the storms should remain below severe limits. Heavy rainfall is certainly going to be the main threat with this system with average amounts expected to be 2-3" area wide. Isolated locations could see as much as 5" of rain during this event. It is hard to pinpoint exactly where the heaviest rain will fall, but the bottom line is that everyone will see significant rainfall. Rain is likely through the day, but at this time it appears the worst of it will come during 6 hour window of noon and 6p.m. This will be the time frame when the front is moving through the forecast area, and this is also the time when the deepest moisture associated with the remnants of Rick will be moving across the forecast area. Convergence ahead of the front will be at a maximum with the added moisture. While a flash flood watch isn't currently in effect, that could change depending on how much rain falls overnight and early Thursday. Nonetheless, localized flooding is anticipated on Thursday, so please allow yourself extra time to reach your destination At this time, if there is any severe weather, the main threat will be damaging winds and isolated tornadoes, but again it should be stressed that there is a very remote chance at this point. Surely, there will be some gusty winds on Thursday due to the typical pressure differences that occur ahead of frontal boundaries. A warm, moist flow off the Gulf will continue with wind gusts over 20 mph at times. With the clouds and rain don't expect much of a diurnal range with temperatures topping out in the mid to upper 70s. The cold front should enter the forecast area shortly after noon, and reach the Lake Charles area between 5 and 8p.m. and Lafayette between 7 and 10p.m. The boundary will clear the entire forecast area overnight. This will bring an end to the widespread shower and thunderstorm activity, and the rain will taper off to an intermittent light or drizzle for a short time in the wake of the front overnight Thursday. The warm and humid air mass currently in place will be displaced by much cooler and drier behind the front Thursday night. Overnight minimums will drop into the mid to upper 50s with the exception of coastal areas and lower Acadiana which will be the last locations to experience frontal passage. Conditions will drastically improve Thursday night.
The forecast thinking for Friday remains unchanged. Conditions will improve with an established CAA pattern in the wake of the front. Skies will transform from Partly Cloudy to Sunny during the day as the drier continues to filter in, and humidity values decrease. With the fresh air moving in, not much of a diurnal range is expected with maximums staying below normal values. Expect high temperatures to range from 65 to 70. We'll have a well-deserved chance to dry out with gusty North winds in response to the squeeze play between the departing low pressure and the incoming high pressure. Aside from a soggy field, conditions should be superb for High School Football Friday night. A nice, clear, cool, crisp October night is in store. Low temperatures will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s across the area. With North winds of 10-15 mph it will feel cooler than it actually is, so a jacket or sweater will suffice if you are out enjoying a game.
The weekend is still looking good with high pressure a dominating force. Expect sunny skies both Saturday and Sunday with very pleasant temperatures and low humidity. Highs will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s with lows down into the 40s again for Saturday night. That will likely be the coldest night this go around, and it will be chilly for the McNeese and LSU games. No rain is forecast, but you will certainly want to bring a jacket or sweater once again. I expect similar temperatures for both Lake Charles and Baton Rouge. McNeese kickoffs at 6p.m. against SE Louisiana and the temperature at kickoff should be in the low to mid 60s with temperatures falling into the 50s during the game. LSU kickoffs at 6:30p.m. in Death Valley against Auburn. I expect temperatures to be very similar to here in Lake Charles, though perhaps a degree or two cooler in Baton Rouge, but in the same ball park nonetheless. Winds will slacken a bit Saturday as the high pressure impinges on the region, and they will be even less of a factor on Sunday with high pressure anchored right over SW Louisiana for much of the day before sliding eastward.
Into next week, a progressive pattern develops. This is typical for late October across SW Louisiana. Another front moves through on Monday. This one will be much weaker compared to its predecessors, and moisture will be limited as there won't be a significant amount of time for return flow. I expect mostly just an increase in clouds as the front makes its way through the forecast area Monday. I wouldn't rule out a shower or two out ahead of it, especially near the coast where the highest moisture content will be available. For now, I will forgo the mention of a rain chance for Monday. Tuesday should be fairly nice behind the weak front from Monday. This front won't really change temperatures all that much as the majority of the cool air with this front will be shunted due East as opposed to SE in response to a developing zonal flow across the Gulf coast. Seasonal temperatures are expected for Monday and Tuesday as a moderating trend develops coming out of the weekend. The next chance of rain enters the forecast on day 7, Wednesday. A stronger system, perhaps the strongest of the season so far comes into range. Winds will quickly veer from offshore to onshore ushering in Gulf moisture across the entire area, and some showers are expected by late Wednesday as the deeper moisture takes over. This is reflected in the current forecast. Temperatures will continue to moderate from near normal to above normal by this time. The best chances of showers and thunderstorms with this front will come just beyond this forecast period towards next Thursday into next Friday. As I mentioned yesterday, the timing of this system sets the stage for quite a chilly Halloween. Stay tuned!!!
Tropics: A tropical wave and broad area of low pressure remains nearly stationary over the SW Caribbean off the East coast of Central America. This system is poorly organized, but continues to try and get better organized. The system is producing heavy rainfall and will continue to do so across the Central America nations of Costa Rica, Honduras, and Nicaragua. Any development of this system is expected to be slow, and not much movement of the system is expected over the next couple of days.
Tropical Storm Rick made landfall over mainland Mexico near Mazatlan this morning (Wednesday), and is now moving NE across the mountains of Mexico. It's remnant moisture will be drawn NE over the next couple of days as it gets embedded into a strong SW flow aloft ahead of an advancing trough over the Great Plains. This will enhance rainfall across the Gulf coast Thursday and Friday.
Elsewhere, no tropical storm formation is expected through the end of the week.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 69/77 56/68 48/69 70 100 60 0 0 0
LFT 68/78 58/70 47/68 60 100 70 0 0 0
BPT 71/77 55/71 50/70 70 100 40 0 0 0
AEX 66/74 53/65 45/66 70 100 30 0 0 0
POE 67/75 54/66 46/67 70 100 30 0 0 0
ARA 71/78 61/70 49/70 60 100 70 0 0 0
Tonight...Cloudy with Showers and Thunderstorms Likely. Heavy Rainfall at times. Low 69. SSE wind 10-15 mph.. Chance of rain 70%.
Thursday...Cloudy with Showers and Thunderstorms Likely. Locally Heavy rainfall expected. Isolated severe storms possible. High 77. SSW wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 100%. Rainfall amounts 2-3" with isolated amounts up to 5".
Thursday Night...Cloudy with showers likely before midnight. Rain ending with Clearing Skies late. Cooler and Windy. Low 56. NNW wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 60%.
Friday...Mostly Sunny, Breezy, and Cooler. High 68. NNW wind 15-20 mph and gusty.
Friday Night...Clear and Cool. Low 48. NNW 10-15 mph.
Saturday...Sunny. High 69. North wind 10-15 mph.
7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity
Thursday
10-22-09
Low: 69
High: 77
Rain: 100%
Wind: SSW 15-20
Friday
10-23-09
Low: 56
High: 68
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 15-20
Saturday
10-24-09
Low: 48
High: 69
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10-15
Sunday
10-25-09
Low: 45
High: 71
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE/SE 5-10
Monday
10-26-09
Low: 52
High: 74
Rain: 10%
Wind: SE/NW 10-15
Tuesday
10-27-09
Low: 53
High: 77
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE/SE 5-10
Wednesday
10-28-09
Low: 58
High: 81
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10-15
...Marine Forecast...
*Small Craft Advisory in Effect.*
Tonight...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet. Showers likely and isolated thunderstorms.
Thursday...South winds 15 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet in the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday Night...West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet building to 4 to 6 feet after midnight. Showers likely in the evening. Thunderstorms likely. A chance of showers after midnight.
Friday...Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 6 feet subsiding to 4 to 6 feet in the afternoon. A slight chance of rain in the morning.
Friday Night...North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet after midnight.
Saturday...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
...Tide Data...
Thursday Tides:
Low: 12:01p.m.
High: 8:38p.m.
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
Low: 62
Normal Low: 57
Record Low: 32-1917
High: 83
Normal High: 79
Record High: 91-1941
Rainfall:
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 5.05"
Normal Month to Date: 2.72"
Year to Date: 52.03"
Normal Year to Date: 46.76"
Record: 1.21"-2006
Sunrise Thursday: 7:20a.m.
Sunset Thursday: 6:34p.m.
Good night and God bless!
-DM-
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