We're still in a holding pattern on this Thursday afternoon, as we await the nasty weather tonight. Not much activity across the forecast area at this time, but showers and thunderstorms are becoming more widespread and organizing into SW to NE oriented lines running from near Houston to Shreveport. This is all ahead of the front which will only slowly trudge our way during the overnight hours. Heavy rain and damaging winds will be the main threat as the presence of a very strong low-level Jet. The gusty winds will continue across the forecast area through the evening.

The greatest tornado threat looks to be setting up to our North across the ARKLATEX region. Some tornadic cells are ongoing North of Shreveport and El Dorado, Arkansas. Another tornadic cell was indicated by radar between Woodville and Lufkin, Texas. Isolated tornadoes can't be ruled out across our forecast area with the presence of wind shear, but the highest shear environment exists over the aforementioned area closest to an attendant surface low along the advancing front. At this time, there is no change in the early watches and advisories that I gave you.

While the greatest tornado threat should be to our North, the flash flood threat is about equal for the forecast area. All indications are that we're still on track for 3-6" of rainfall with higher amounts up to 8" possible somewhere in the forecast area mainly to the N and W of Lake Charles. Lighter amounts will occur over Acadiana, but even up to 5" is possible across that area through Friday evening. The severe weather threat will end early in the early morning hours of Friday with the passage of the front, but the rain will continue through much of Friday as an overrunning situation sets up.

The most likely time frame for severe weather across SW Louisiana will be from around 10p.m. until 6a.m. Friday ending from West to East as the front progresses through the area. While cool air will filter in at the surface behind the front, warm moist air will ride up over the top of the surface cool air, and a good deal of instability will remain in place through Friday. This will keep the threat of heavy rainfall in place until late the day when drier air moves in at all levels, finally putting an end to the persistent stratiform precipitation. Conditions will markedly improve Friday night just in time for all the football games. The weekend looks great with cool sunshine expected both days. More complete details later tonight as the storms head our way.

-DM-