It is a very windy day across the forecast area as the intense storm system begins to impact the region. The gusty winds are indicative of the wind shear, that I have talked about over the last couple days. Non-convective wind gusts have been well into the 30-35 mph range, and could approach 40 mph at times this afternoon. Sustained winds are in the 20-25 mph range at this hour. The atmosphere is in a very volatile state with a very warm, moist unstable air mass in place with temperatures well up into the lower 80s across the area, and dew points in the mid 70s. The only thing lacking at the moment is shower and thunderstorm activity itself, but with these temperatures the convective temperature should be achieved over the next couple of hours, thus breaking the cap currently in place in the upper levels. Showers and thunderstorms have developed downstream in the vicinity of Houston, extending into the ARK-LA-TEX region. This area will continue to fill in and intensify as the afternoon progresses.
The area continues to be highlighted for a slight risk of severe weather by the Storm Prediction Center in Norman. The tornado threat will exist for the entire area through tonight, but that being said, I believe the greatest risk for tornadoes will be in the ARK-LA-TEX region closer to the advancing surface low. The greatest risk for a tornado across SW Louisiana will come in the overnight hours...very bad timing for that. The flood threat will materialize later this afternoon, and continue through Friday. The severe weather threat will end from West to East on Friday as the front progresses through the area.
A plethora of watches exists at this hour across the region with a New Tornado Watch having just been issued for portions of the area. Following is a run down of the current advisories, and graphics from the SPC.
The first image is the Severe Weather Outlook for Day 1.
The next set of images (3 maps) are the break down of severe weather categories: The probability of tornadoes, followed by hail, and damaging winds.
A Tornado Watch has been issued for a large portion of Louisiana and SE Texas until 2Z Friday (9p.m. Thursday). Here's a graphical representation of this watch. It doesn't include parishes along and south of I-10 nor the Acadiana Parishes. The watch runs along a line from Houston to Monroe. It includes Beauregard and Vernon Parishes on the Louisiana side of the forecast area, and Jasper, Tyler, and Newton Counties in the SE Texas portion of the forecast area.
From the National Weather Service Lake Charles, here's a list of the current advisories in effect for the foreast area.
*Coastal Flood Advisory in effect through Friday for Jefferson and Orange County in SE Texas, and Calcasieu, Cameron, Vermilion, Iberia, and St. Mary Parishes in SW Louisiana.*
*Flash Flood Watch in effect for all of SE Texas and SW Louisiana through Friday.*
*Tornado Watch in effect until 9p.m. for Beauregard and Vernon Parishes, and Jasper, Tyler, and Newton Counties in SE Texas.* A watch will likely be issued for the rest of the forecast area later on this evening.
*Lake Wind Advisory in effect for the entire forecast area through 10p.m. tonight.*
More updates to come throughout the afternoon. Stay tuned and stay safe!!!
-DM-
Thanks for the info Drew! I appriciate you posting as much as you do!
ReplyDelete