Monday, September 28, 2009
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...A strong cold front is in transit tonight. It is currently moving through the forecast area, pretty much bisecting the forecast area running from near Baton Rouge to Jasper, TX. A sharp contrast in dew points is noted behind the front, with temperatures following suit as well. The front will continue to move through the forecast area overnight, and be in the offshore waters after sunrise Tuesday. It is moving to the SE about 10 mph, and at this rate it should be near Lake Charles around midnight. A few spotty showers dot the landscape across SW Louisiana ahead of the front tonight. There will be a slight chance of any one location getting a brief shower overnight until the front scours out the moist air mass in place. Scattered showers and thunderstorms developed from Lake Charles westward to Beaumont this afternoon ahead of a convergence zone (disturbance) ahead of the front. Rain was heavy at times and some minor urban flooding occurred. Nothing like this is expected tonight as the front moves through. The warm and moist air mass in place will be replaced with much drier and cooler air, and it will be very refreshing in the morning. Clouds ahead of the front will scour out shortly after the dry air moves in, and it will be a Mostly Clear start to the day. Temperatures will fall into the mid 60s by daybreak with a refreshing North breeze.
High pressure will control the weather beginning Tuesday lasting into Thursday. Pleasant weather is expected for this period with Sunny skies, cool mornings, pleasantly warm afternoons, and much lower humidity values. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s on Tuesday with the coolest night so far this season on tap for Tuesday night..Overnight minimums will range from the mid to upper 50s. Refreshing Northerly breezes on Tuesday will relax overnight as high pressure moves into Central Texas. This will allow for maximum radiational cooling with dew point readings Tuesday afternoon likely as low as the upper 40s. As usual, these readings increase a bit during the overnight, so the forecast low in the mid to upper 50s should be right on target with the dry air in place. Wednesday will be a beautiful day with very similar afternoon highs to that of Wednesday. Another cool, refreshing night is expected Wednesday night, but with the controlling high beginning to slide East of the Mississippi it will be a tad warmer than Tuesday night...lower 60s should suffice with a very light return flow establishing itself at that time.Thursday will still be very pleasant, but the return flow will become more pronounced. At this same time, the next system will be taking shape.
This system will move into our area on Friday. Another decent cold front and associated sharp trough will move out of the Rockies at mid-week, and move ESE into the area Friday. A moist air mass will be in place, and ample dynamics will be generated by the advancing front. Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity is expected, with some heavy rainfall as well. The jury is still out on whether or not this system will be accompanied by a severe weather threat, but this can't be ruled out. The best chance for severe weather at this time looks to be further to our North and NW from the DFW Metroplex area through Oklahoma and Kansas across into Missouri, Arkansas, and North Louisiana. This will be a 2 day event, with the Great Plains experiencing some severe weather on Thursday, and points further East Friday. There will certainly be enough dynamics in place for thunderstorms in our area, but the necessary ingredients to produce the severe weather may just miss our area. Early October isn't exactly a prime time for severe weather across our area, but it isn't unheard of, and in an El Nino year anything can happen. This is an aspect of the forecast that will be fine tuned throughout the week. Whether there is severe weather or not, rain and thunderstorms are likely Friday ahead of the front, but the timing of the front is still uncertain at this time as well. Some of the forecast models show frontal passage rather quickly on Friday morning while others indicate a Friday evening/Friday night arrival and passage. Lows will climb back into the 70s, but with the clouds and rain expected highs will only be near 80. For now, I will insert likely rain chances for Friday, and target more of an afternoon arrival, but this will be tweaked as needed in later forecasts. Temperatures will moderate as the Southerly flow deepens.
For the weekend, the forecast confidence is a low one at this point with much disparity in the models. It's a crapshoot at best at this point with some models indicating the Friday cold front stalling out along the coast, and keeping clouds and off and on showers in the forecast through the weekend, while the other models want to keep the front moving, and bring in another ridge of high pressure with lots of sunshine and pleasant temperatures in place for the weekend....I want to root for this solution!!! However, my best forecast solution at this point is to call for a blend of the models. An overrunning situation is certainly likely if the front stalls out in our vicinity. I am going to forecast Cooler and drier air to temporarily move in on Saturday behind the front, but as the front becomes stationary over the Gulf waters, and a low develops along its tail end off the Texas coast, moisture will increase from the SW on Sunday bringing back the clouds and a chance of off and on showers. Cooler temperatures are expected with lows down into the 50s/60s once again, highs will be near in the lower 80s, and Saturday looks to be a very nice day at this point.
At the end of the forecast period on Sunday and Monday, the stalled frontal boundary looks to continue to be the dominate weather feature. A chance of off showers/thunderstorms will return to the forecast Sunday as the front remains in place just offshore. Another advancing trough will likely activate the front, and send it back Northward through the area returning us into the warm, moist air mass on Sunday. A warm and moist air mass will be place on Monday, and the chance for warm sector showers and thunderstorms will continue ahead of the next trough. The temperature forecast for Sunday is one that starts off pleasant and ends humid. Mid 60s look like a good bet at this time for Sunday morning, while afternoon highs should reach the mid 80s. With a deep, moist air mass in place, even warmer conditions are expected Monday with readings more representative of late August than early October expected. Lows should be in the lower 70s while highs again reach the mid 80s. The next in the series of troughs will move through the forecast area beyond this forecast period, and this should occur towards mid-week next week. It is projected to be the strongest front of the season so far, and will hopefully clear us out and cool us down significantly in about 8-10 days.
Tropics: It is unusually quiet for late September with no named systems across the entire Atlantic basin, but this not uncommon with an El Nino pattern in place. No tropical storm formation is expected through Wednesday.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 64/82 59/84 65/85 10 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 65/82 58/84 62/84 10 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 62/81 55/82 59/83 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 63/83 60/84 66/85 10 0 0 0 0 0
POE 62/81 56/83 60/85 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 66/83 59/84 63/84 10 0 0 0 0 0
Tonight...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with an isolated shower possible until about 2a.m. Turning Cooler and Breezy after midnight. Low 64. SW wind 10 mph becoming NNW at 10-15 mph after midnight.
Tuesday...Sunny. High 82. NW wind 10-15 mph.
Tuesday Night...Clear and Cool. Low 59. Light North wind.
Wednesday...Sunny. High 84. NE wind 5-10 mph.
Wednesday Night...Clear and Not as Cool. Low 65. Light East wind becoming SE after midnight.
Thursday...Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy. High 85. SE wind 10-15 mph.
7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity
*Graphics Unavailable Due to Computer Crash Last Week
Tuesday
9-29-09
Sky: Sunny
Precip: 0%
Low: 64
High: 82
Wind: NNW 10-15
Wednesday
9-30-09
Sky: Sunny
Precip: 0%
Low: 59
High: 84
Wind: NE 5-10
Thursday
10-1-09
Sky: Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy
Precip: 0%
Low: 65
High: 85
Wind: SE 10-15
Friday
10-2-09
Sky: Cloudy w/ Showers & Thunderstorms Likely
Precip: 70%
Low: 71
High: 81
Wind: SSE 15-20
Saturday
10-3-09
Sky: Sunny
Precip: 0%
Low: 58
High: 80
Wind: NNW/NNE 10-15
Sunday
10-4-09
Sky: Partly Cloudy w/ a Chance of Showers
Precip: 30%
Low: 63
High: 82
Wind: NE/SE 10-15
Monday
10-5-09
Sky: Mostly Cloudy w/ a Chance of Showers & Thunderstorms
Precip: 40%
Low: 71
High: 84
Wind: SSE 10-15
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...Northwest winds 5-10 knots becoming northeast 10-15 knots after midnight. Seas 2- 3 feet building to 3-4 feet after
midnight. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday...Northeast winds 10-15 knots. Seas 2-4 feet subsiding to 2-3 feet in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night...Northeast winds 10-15 knots. Seas 2-3 feet.
Wednesday...Northeast winds 10-15 knots becoming east 5-10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2-3 feet.
Wednesday Night...East winds 5-10 knots becoming southeast after midnight. Seas 3 feet.
Thursday...South winds 10-15 knots. Seas 3-5 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Tide Data...Calcasieu Pass, LA...
Tuesday Tides:
Low: 9:23a.m. 6:51p.m.
High: 2:41a.m. 11:00a.m.
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Monday, September 28, 2009
Low: 75
Normal Low: 65
Record Low: 45-1909
High: 90
Normal High: 85
Record High: 96-1998
Rainfall:
Today: 0.29"
Month to Date: 5.26"
Normal Month to Date: 5.61"
Year to Date: 46.98"
Normal Year to Date: 43.70"
Record:: 2.30"-1913
Sunrise Tuesday: 7:05a.m.
Sunset Tuesday: 7:00p.m.
Good night and God bless!
-DM-
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