SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Quite a day across SW Louisiana with lots of heavy rainfall with across the area with 1-4" for most locations. Severe weather also occurred with several tornado warnings issued across the area, and some confirmed tornadoes in Cameron and Jeff Davis Parish. Flash flooding was an even bigger issue with much of the area under Flash Flood Warnings for the majority of the day. All of SW Louisiana was also under a Tornado Watch for the majority of the day. I will have a rundown of the storm reports that have been received across the area thus far. Storm surveys have been conducted by the NWS Lake Charles, and more information will become available in the coming days. All of the active weather today was in response to our latest cold front which has since moved through the area. Convergence ahead of the front combined with the remnant low from Hurricane Rick helped to produce the dynamics needed to create a tornadic environment. While there wasn't a great deal of it, there was enough wind shear to produce the tornadoes across the area, and the confirmed tornadoes likely occurred right along the area with the greatest wind shear and nearest the track of the surface low. Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity occurred across the entire forecast area with significant rainfall for all locations...over 2" here in Lake Charles officially. More on rainfall totals a little bit later on. Before I continue with the discussion here's a run down of storm reports from the damage across the area today, as well as rainfall totals.
*All of the following reports are courtesy of the NWS Lake Charles:
-Cameron Parish Sheriff's Office reported a tornado at Grand Chenier at 10:35a.m. No damage or injuries reported with this storm.
-0.50" hail was reported 7 miles ENE of Grand Lake in extreme Southern Calcasieu Parish at 10:57a.m.
-The most intense storm of the day produced 3 separate tornadoes in Jeff Davis Parish from late morning through early afternoon. The first confirmed tornado occurred at 12:05p.m. and touched down near Lake Arthur just north of Hwy. 14 about 3 miles W of Lake Arthur. The tornado was rated an EF0 with winds of 65-85 mph. The tornado tracked through mainly rural areas of Jefferson Davis Parish before ending 5 miles SSE of Roanoke. Several power lines and power poles were downed along Hwy. 380 and Lyons Road. There were several eyewitness reports and photographs of this tornado. The path length for this tornado was 5 miles and the total width was 50 yards.
-Tornado #2 in Jeff Davis Parish occurred a few minutes later at 12:22p.m. This one was a large multi-vortex tornado which began just south of Hwy. 90 just West of Jennings. It tracked northward and dissipated just SW of Elton along Hwy. 395. At peak intensity south of I-10, the tornado was about 1/2 mile wide. It crossed over I-10 near Jennings and flipped over several cars including a tractor-trailer rig. The driver of the 18 wheeler was taken to a local hospital and treated and released. No other injuries were reported. The EF0 blew down several trees and power lines along its path, and caused minor damage to an outbuilding and several homes. The total path length for this tornado was 16 miles.
-The 3rd and final tornado in Jeff Davis occurred just a short time later, from the same thunderstorm that spawned the previous two. It was also rated an EF0 with winds closer to 85 mph. The tornado moved through the town of Elton. It began south of Dan Buller Road. It moved north from there through Elton damaging a barn and knocking down several trees on Dan Buller Road. In the town of Elton, numerous trees and power lines were blown down. 15 homes received damage. The worst damage was north of Hwy. 190 between Washington Street and Langley Road. The tornado dissipated to the North of Elton along Buller Road. It had a total path length of 5 miles and a maximum width of 1/2 mile.
-Wind damage occurred in the town of Lake Arthur. Several trees were blown down and the power was out for the entire town.
-Wind damage in Rapides Parish. Trees and power lines were blown down throughout the Parish according to Rapides Parish Emergency Manager.
-Flash Flooding in Alexandria with several underpasses significantly flooded.
-Flash flooding between Roanoke and Lake Arthur with flooding observed on several roads between those two locations in Jeff Davis Parish.
-Two (2) water spouts were spotted 2 miles South of Grand Chenier from an offshore oil rig this morning around 10:31a.m. This was the same cell that produced the tornadoes in Jeff Davis Parish.
-Flash Flooding in Lake Charles w/ many streets flooded from 2-4" of rain in a short time.
-Beaumont, TX flash flooding with three (3) cars flooded up to the windows on Lucas Street and the EastTex Freeway.
-Heavy rain with 4.29" in 3 hours near Fannett, TX.
That's all the reports I have for now as far as damage goes. Now, here's a rundown of rainfall totals.
Lake Charles 2.21"
Lafayette 2.99"
Alexandria 3.54"
New Iberia: 0.93"
Beaumont 2.35"
All is quiet across the forecast area now as the front has moved through and a much cooler, stable air mass has replaced the pre-frontal air mass. Some post-frontal light rain and drizzle lingers across Acadiana at this hour, but this will be coming to an end soon as drier air takes over the entire forecast area. Rapid clearing will overnight, and as of 10p.m. the clearing line was nearing the Sabine River. Much cooler temperatures will be experienced overnight with lows in the low to mid 50s area wide. Skies will become clear overnight, and CAA will continue with NW winds around 15 mph.
A beautiful 3 day stretch is expected starting Friday. High pressure will dominate through the weekend with no rain expected, and likely no clouds as well. Perfect fall weather is in store with highs on Friday in the mid 60s. It will be nice and cool on Friday night for all the football games. Temperatures will be in the 60s at kickoff falling into the 50s during the game. So, aside from a muddy field it should be ideal for football Friday night. Both Saturday and Sunday promise to be beautiful days as well with dominant high pressure in control. Clear skies and low humidity will prevail. Temperatures will be at the coolest for this go around on Saturday morning with mid 40s expected. A slightly warmer afternoon is expected with highs just cracking 70. Sunday a moderating trend continues as morning lows start out in the mid to upper 40s, while afternoon highs reach the low to mid 70s. High pressure will move right over head by late Saturday into Sunday, so the wind will be near calm by this time. The weather looks great for anything outdoors as well as for the LSU-Auburn game and McNeese-SE Louisiana game. Temperatures will be in the mid 60s and kickoff and fall into the 50s before the end of the game.
A complex forecast sets up for next week. Moisture return sets up late Sunday into Monday as the ridge in control of the weather over the weekend slides East. This will aid in the moderation of temperatures, and as another front approaches on Monday, clouds will increase, but once again I will negate the prospects of small rain chances at this time as I believe low-level moisture will remain limited. A shower or two certainly can't be ruled out. This will be a weak front, and not much change in weather is expected for Tuesday. It should be a fairly nice day, but with little or no change in temperatures. The onshore flow comes right back by Tuesday night as a very progressive pattern is established. A warming trend will commence at this time when a much more significant storm system with associated trough and cold front will be moving into range in days 6 and 7. This will strengthen the low-level flow off the Gulf, and a few showers are possible by Wednesday afternoon as the system deepens and the moisture content across the coastal region. Small rain chances are placed in the forecast for Wednesday without the lack of a trigger, rain chances should remain low and limited to air mass showers. It is fairly certain at this point, that the next major trough and cold front will affect the region at the end of next week, but what is uncertain is the timing of it, and how much rain will fall. Some models favor heavy rain and storms for both Thursday and Friday of next week while some offer a rain on Thursday, dry and chilly on Friday solution. For Day 7, I will raise rain chances, but not put them in the likely category just yet as I feel it prudent to await some more model runs, and hone in on this system Monday. Whether its clear or not, Halloween is still shaping up to be very chilly.
Tropics: Quiet.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 54/67 49/72 47/75 0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 57/68 48/71 46/74 20 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 52/68 51/73 48/75 0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 50/65 45/68 42/72 0 0 0 0 0 0
POE 51/66 46/69 43/73 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 60/70 50/73 49/75 20 0 0 0 0 0
Tonight....Decreasing Cloudiness and Much Cooler. Becoming Clear after midnight. Low 54. NNW wind 10-15 mph.
Friday...Sunny. High 67. NNW wind 10-15 mph.
Friday Night...Clear and Cool. Low 49. North wind 5-10 mph.
Saturday...Sunny. High 72. North wind 5-10 mph.
Saturday Night...Clear and Cool. Low 47. Light NE wind.
Sunday...Sunny. High 75. East wind 5-10 mph.
7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity
Friday
10-23-09
Low: 54
High: 67
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
Saturday
10-24-09
Low: 49
High: 72
Rain: 0%
Wind: North 5-10
Sunday
10-25-09
Low: 47
High: 75
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 5-10
Monday
10-26-09
Low: 55
High: 78
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE/NNW 10-15
Tuesday
10-27-09
Low: 55
High: 80
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE/SE 5-15
Wednesday
10-28-09
Low: 61
High: 82
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Thursday
10-29-09
Low: 66
High: 82
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSE 15-20
...Marine Forecast...
*Small Craft Advisory*
Friday...Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet in the afternoon.
Friday Night...North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet after midnight.
Saturday...North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday Night...East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 1 foot building to 1 to 2 feet after midnight.
Sunday...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet.
...Tide Data...
Friday Tides:
Low: 12:51p.m.
High: 11:57p.m.
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Thursday, October 22, 2009
Low: 71
Normal Low: 56
Record Low: 34-1917
High: 76
Normal High: 79
Record High: 90-1941
Rainfall:
Today: 2.21"
Month to Date: 7.27"
Normal Month to Date: 2.83"
Year to Date: 54.25"
Normal Year to Date: 46.87"
Record: 4.10"-1972
Sunrise Friday: 7:20a.m.
Sunset Friday: 6:33p.m.
Good night and God bless!
-DM-
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