Tuesday, October 27, 2009
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...What an incredible day on Monday at Lake Charles! Very heavy rainfall and significant flooding occurred in advance of our latest cold front. One of the wettest October days ever occurred, and a record rainfall for the date October 26 was established with 5.31" of rainfall officially at Lake Charles. With all the rainfall in the last week, October 2009 has become one of the wettest Octobers on record not only for Lake Charles, but for many reporting sites across the forecast area. These totals will only go higher in the coming days with an even stronger system hanging the balance. More on that in a moment. Here's a rundown of rainfall totals from Monday, and the monthly total for October. Also included is the ranking for the total amount in relation to all-time records, and I will indicate the wettest October of all-time for each location.
City Monday Month Rank All-Time
Lake Charles 5.31" 12.58" 4th 21.44"-2002
Lafayette 0.27" 9.76" 10th 18.27"-2002
Beaumont 1.51" 12.21" 7th 15.09"-1970
Alexandria 0.58" 9.39" 12th 16.00"-1985
New Iberia 0.27" 9.95" 4th 21.35"-1984
*The data compiled above is through Monday, October 26, 2009. Some sites had more rainfall after midnight Tuesday. With more rainfall imminent in the coming days, these totals will likely go higher, and some monthly rainfall records may be broken.
As the title evokes a short respite is expected in the wake of last night's cold front. We are currently in said respite. The majority of the day was dry and cool but a low overcast continued into the afternoon as the system continued to pull away. High pressure anchored to our NW slid to the East today, and this finally eroded the cloud cover that had enveloped the region. A very pleasant afternoon occurred across the forecast area with Mostly Sunny skies and temperatures shy of 70 degrees. Weak high pressure controls the forecast tonight, and clear skies and cool temperatures are expected with overnight minimums ranging from the mid 40s to mid 50s. It feels great outside with most locations already in the 50s as we speak. The only fly in the ointment overnight may be the development of some fog with all the residual moisture in place after Monday's rain. The highest prospects for fog development will be in the areas that received the heaviest rainfall Monday. Fog development will occur towards morning, and be patchy. It could be dense in a few locations, but only briefly early Wednesday morning. A very light wind will persist overnight as well.
A nice day is on tap for Wednesday with sunny skies and a pleasantly warm late October afternoon expected. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s for most locations. The brief respite will continue, but a return flow from the Gulf will commence in the afternoon as the weak anticyclone shifts eastward. By late in the day, clouds will quickly return from the South as the return flow intensifies and warm frontogenesis occurs over the offshore waters. After a nice day on Wednesday, chances for showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast overnight Wednesday as the phased system moves into the area. The system is clearly visible on satellite imagery tonight with very active weather over the Rockies and Intermountain West. Lots of snow and wind out that way. The associated trough with this system will continue to sharpen as it dives to the SE towards our general vicinity. The energy associated with the Jet Stream out ahead of this large and very dynamic system will cause the cold front which came through last night to retreat Northward Wednesday afternoon, and this boundary will move onshore and across the forecast area overnight Wednesday. This will bring out the first round of showers and thunderstorms after dark Wednesday. Much warmer conditions will result as the area returns to the warm sector behind the boundary, and overnight lows will be in the low to mid 60s. Conditions will just deteriorate even further beyond Wednesday night.
Thursday & Friday...It is a certainty that a heavy rainfall and severe weather event is in the fold for the Thursday-Friday time frame, but what is uncertain is how long it will persist. Models still diverge to a great extent on the duration of the event. This is typical of an El Nino set up across the Gulf coast. Thursday's forecast is pretty simple really, rain and thunderstorms. As the sharpening trough digs to the SE and the warm front continues to lift North, widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop. Cyclogenesis somewhere over the Red River Valley will also occur, adding fuel to the fire. A very fast Jet Stream aloft will create high upper level winds, and resultant wind shear across the area. A damaging wind and tornado threat is a real possibility especially later in the day Thursday as the best dynamics associated with the very complex weather system move our way. At this time, the highest risk for severe weather will likely be across the Northern half of the forecast area. Embedded disturbances in the flow out ahead of the surface low and associated cold front will aid in persistent rainfall. Flooding will be the biggest threat with this system. Heavy rains will fall on top of already completely saturated grounds. This will only exacerbate the flooding situation across the entire forecast area, and a Flood Watch will likely be issued by the National Weather Service probably Wednesday evening. Rainfall should be more scattered in nature at first, but will certainly become widespread throughout the day. The worst of the weather will likely come overnight Thursday when the severe weather threat is even more realized. The greatest dynamics and instability with the sharp trough will move directly across the area as added energy from the Subtropical Jet Stream energizes the system even further. All modes of severe weather are possible, and the greatest risk of flooding will be at this time as well. The atmosphere will be in a very volatile state as the warm sector deepens across the area. Very warm and humid air will be in place Thursday with highs reaching the lower 80s. There is almost no skill in pinpointing exactly who will get the heaviest amounts of rainfall, but average amounts across the entire forecast area should be on the order of 4-8" with higher amounts up to 10" possible. This is the total expected amount for the system from Wednesday night through Friday. Following is a rainfall accumulation forecast through Friday. A bulls eye of 6-8" is noted across SE Texas and SW Louisiana. A severe weather outlook map is also included. I will address the severe weather parameters in more detail in tomorrow's blog.
Severe Weather Outlook for Day 3 (Thursday).
The rough weather lasts through the night Thursday, and into Friday. As I stated earlier, models differ on the timing of frontal passage, but there is more agreement tonight that the front will hang up for a bit across the area due to a strong anticyclone persisting over the SE U.S. This will keep the heavy rain and severe weather threat ongoing into Friday. Multiple rounds of severe weather are certainly possible. A nasty squall line will likely move through just ahead of the front, but in this environment several lines of showers and thunderstorms are expected out ahead of the main MCS. The very warm and moist air will continue for Thursday night into Friday until frontal passage. For Friday itself, it should be a day of transition. The heavy rain and severe weather threat will continue early in the morning ahead of the front, but as of now I expect frontal passage to occur before noon Friday. However, the rain will not shut off with frontal passage. The severe weather threat will end with frontal passage, but the rain will continue as a moist layer remains in place above the surface. The rain will only slowly taper off from there as drier air in all levels finally pushes in to scour out the moist layer. Temperatures will likely fall a bit during the day Friday as the cooler air takes over. The temperature forecast is the least of our worries at this point, but best guess is that morning temperatures will be in the low to mid 60s with temperatures only rising or a degree or two before falling back a bit in the afternoon. Some forecast models, keep an overrunning, steady rainfall going through Friday night into early Saturday, but I will forgo this solution at the moment, and call for rain to end late Friday afternoon, with just some intermittent drizzle or light rain Friday evening. Very soggy fields are expected for all the Friday Night games, but the threat of rain is minimal.
The Weekend...Conditions improve Friday night with clearing skies overnight and much cooler weather under a dry NW flow and CAA. This will set the stage for a fabulous weekend. Overnight lows will be well down into the 50s, with upper 40s across Northern sections of the forecast area. Saturday and Sunday will be beautiful days, marking the third straight nice weekend. It'll be well deserved and well earned. We'll need some time to dry out that's for sure. Very pleasant temperatures are in store with highs in the upper 60s Saturday, and lower 70s Sunday. It will be nice and cool for Halloween. I'm sure there's a plethora of activities lined up for Saturday night to celebrate Halloween, and all of them will have good weather. Expect overnight lows to drop into the middle 40s by Sunday morning. Not to be forgotten, is all the football games. Weather looks good for that too, LSU is at home vs. Tulane...Clear & Cool. McNeese on the road at Nicholls State...Sunny and Pleasant. We'll have one extra hour to enjoy the cool weather this weekend thanks to the time change Saturday night/Sunday morning. Don't forget to change your clocks, you don't want to be late for church!
Monday, Tuesday, & the Extended...The end of the forecast period looks great. Perhaps, we'll have a string of several days to dry out after this week's rains. Monday and Tuesday's forecast features some Nifty November weather with lows in the 40s and 50s, and highs in the 70s. Low humidity will be a very nice feature of these days as well, and the perfect conditions for drying out will be present. It's never a forecast, but I always like to take a gander beyond 7 days. The important thing to remember when doing so, is that you have to look for trends. The trend at this time is for a continuance of the nice fall weather for much of the first full week of November. The next weather maker is about 10-11 days out. November is often a month of wild extremes of weather, and with El Nino in place you have to figure that will be the case in 2009. We're essentially in a pattern more representative of November at this juncture. Stay tuned for all the latest on the impinging storm system!
Tropics: Quiet.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 52/78 65/81 62/64 0 0 60 90 100 80
LFT 51/78 64/82 63/66 0 0 60 80 100 80
BPT 55/79 67/81 61/64 0 0 70 90 100 70
AEX 48/78 61/80 60/61 0 0 70 90 100 80
POE 49/79 62/80 60/61 0 0 70 90 100 80
ARA 53/78 66/81 65/67 0 0 60 80 100 80
Tonight...Clear with areas of fog developing after midnight. Some areas of dense fog possible toward morning. Low 52. Light SW wind.
Wednesday...Sunny for much of the day, but clouds will increase late afternoon. High 78. SE wind 10-15 mph.
Wednesday Night...Mostly Cloudy and Much Warmer with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing before midnight, and becoming numerous after midnight. A few severe storms are possible. Heavy rainfall and flooding likely. Low 65. SSE wind 10-20 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
Thursday...Cloudy, Windy, and Unseasonably Warm with showers and thunderstorms likely. Severe storms with damaging wind and isolated tornadoes possible. Heavy rainfall and flooding likely. High 81. SSE wind 15-25 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 90%.
Thursday Night...Cloudy and Windy with widespread showers and thunderstorms likely. Severe storms with damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes possible. Heavy rainfall and flooding likely. Low 62. SSE wind 15-20 mph and gusty becoming SSW 20-25 mph and gusty after midnight. Chance of rain 100%. Total rainfall amounts 4-8" with isolated amounts up to 10" possible for the entire event.
Friday...Cloudy, Windy, and Cooler. Rain and a few thunderstorms likely in the morning. Rain likely into the afternoon, tapering off to intermittent light rain or drizzle late afternoon. High 64. SSW wind 20-25 mph and gusty becoming NNW at 20-30 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 80%.
7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity
Wednesday
10-28-09
Low: 52
High: 78
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 10-15
Thursday
10-29-09
Low: 65
High: 81
Rain: 90%
Wind: SSE 15-25
Friday
10-30-09
Low: 62
High: 64
Rain: 80%
Wind: SSW/NNW 20-30
Saturday
10-31-09
Halloween
Low: 52
High: 66
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
Sunday
11-1-09
All Saint's Day
Daylight Savings Time
Low: 45
High: 70
Rain: 0%
Wind: NW 5-10
Monday
11-2-09
Low: 45
High: 72
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
Tuesday
11-3-09
Low: 48
High: 72
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...West winds around 5 knots becoming southeast after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas building to 3 to 4 feet in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night...Southeast winds 15 to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the evening...then numerous showers and thunderstorms after midnight.
Thursday...South winds 15 to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Numerous showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday Night...South winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the evening...then numerous showers and thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday...North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Tide Data...
Wednesday Tides:
Low: 7:34a.m. 6:00p.m.
High: 10:35a.m.
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Low: 57
Normal Low: 55
Record Low: 34-1898
High: 69
Normal High: 77
Record High: 92-1927
Rainfall:
Today: 0.07"
Month to Date: 12.65"
Normal Month to Date: 3.43"
Year to Date: 59.63"
Normal Year to Date: 47.47"
Record: 7.20"-1970
Sunrise Wednesday: 7:24a.m.
Sunset Wednesday: 6:29p.m.
Good night and God bless!
-DM-
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