SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...We have had the last warm and humid day for awhile. It was unseasonably warm today with increased subsidence ahead of the cold front which is moving into the area as we speak. Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity occurred mainly due to the effects of daytime heating, but overall it was a drier day than we've seen much of the week. Unseasonably warm temperatures were experienced across the entire area for both lows and highs. Morning lows were in the mid to upper 70s, and of note, Lake Charles established a record warm minimum for the date October 15 with an official low of 79. Afternoon highs were near 90, falling just short of record levels, but well above normal, nonetheless. The threat of showers and thunderstorms is not over with just yet, as a line of showers and thunderstorms has developed along the front, and the line actually continues to intensify. Some strong storms are certainly possible, and one or two storms may reach severe limits, however, the best dynamics for any severe weather is over Mississippi and SE Louisiana. More widespread activity will occur over that way as well, but most if not all of us will see some rain ahead of this front. The good news is it will be brief, thus limiting rainfall amounts to a 1/2" or less. As of this writing, the front is running along a line from near Houston to DeQuincy to St. Francisville. The heaviest and strongest storms are running from between Oakdale and Oberlin Eastward to the Northshore of Lake Pontchartrain. Some of the storms will contain gusty winds and small hail, but overall just a quick thunderstorm is expected as the front moves through. The front will move through Lake Charles between 11p.m and midnight., and Lafayette between midnight and 1a.m., and clear the entire forecast area by sunrise Friday. Winds will shift and increase with the front, and shortly thereafter temperatures will begin to fall. Skies will quickly clear out as well by sunrise. By morning, temperatures will be in the seasonable category with readings ranging from the upper 50s to the mid 60s across the forecast area.
For Friday, the much anticipated, and very welcome Fantastic Fall weather will begin. It will be a bit breezy with a strong CAA pattern in place across the area in the wake of the front. Aside from some early leftover clouds, it will be a beautiful day with Sunny skies in place. Temperatures will be some 15-20 degrees cooler than that of Thursday. Expect maximums to reach the lower to middle 70s. A steep pressure gradient behind the front will result in NNW winds over 20 mph at times. That'll really be about the only weather related issue for the weekend forecast as well. Football weather is in store for High School Football with clear skies and cool conditions. Temperatures will be in the upper 60s at kickoff falling into the 50s during the game, and a North breeze to contend with, so a sweater or wind breaker is a wise choice if you are going to a game, but certainly a complete 180 from last Friday night.
Saturday-Sunday...Sunny skies expected both days along with perfect temperatures with highs in the 60s to lower 70s. A secondary surge of cool Canadian air is expected to arrive during the day Saturday, and this will result in a very windy day Saturday with occasional wind gusts over 30 mph. Humidity values will drop into the extremely low category (20-30%) by Saturday afternoon. Absolutely no rain is forecast for the entire weekend, though some clouds could move across Northern portions of the area Saturday as an embedded upper level disturbance in the wake of the secondary surge advances across North Louisiana. Saturday night will be the coolest night of the season thus far, and is setting up to be very chilly for the McNeese Homecoming game. After highs on Saturday in the mid to upper 60s, temperatures will fall off quickly once the sun goes down. A strong Canadian high pressure building in from the Great Plains will move into East Texas, and winds will relax, becoming very light overnight. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 40s, so for the game expect temperatures near 60 at kickoff falling off well into the 50s in the 2nd half. On Sunday, an repeat performance of sky conditions is expected with wall-to-wall sunshine expected once again, and a very chilly start with most locations in the 40s. With full sunshine, a decent warm up is expected during the day especially with the dry air in place. Expect afternoon highs to be in the mid to upper 60s once again. Put the gumbo on!!! High pressure gonna dominate, just like we're hoping the Saints will dominate the Giants on Sunday!!!
Next week...The perfection carries over into the new work with not much change in forecast reasoning since last night. High pressure will dominate the weather with pleasant temperatures and low humidity continuing. Another chilly start is in store for Monday with 40s area wide once again, and it could actually be a degree or two cooler than Monday morning with some lower 40s possible from the East Texas Lakes Region through Toledo Bend over to Alexandria. A warming trend will ensue Monday afternoon as the controlling high begins to slide Eastward, and winds slowly but surely bend around back towards the Gulf. Monday will still be very nice with another day of super low humidity. Highs should exceed 70 in all locations. For Tuesday, a return flow off the Gulf sets up, albeit only modestly at first. This front is going to do a great job of flushing out the deep tropical moisture, so it will take it awhile to return even once we do get back into a Southerly flow. The return flow will result in increasing humidity of course, as well as a moderation of temperatures, with lows back into the 50s, and highs closer to normal in the mid 70s. The onshore flow will become more pronounced for the mid-week period as another cold front heads our way. Air mass moderation continues in earnest for Tuesday night and Wednesday with an increase in clouds. Lows will return to near normal values by Wednesday morning while highs do the same thing for Wednesday afternoon. By this time, we will transition from Sunny skies to Partly to Mostly Cloudy as the low-level moisture becomes more sufficient by that time. The next cold front moves through late Wednesday into Thursday, and a small chance of showers and thunderstorms is introduced for this period. At this time, it doesn't appear that a significant chance of showers and thunderstorms is expected as the dynamics needed to support such occurrence will not be present if the current projections are correct. This front should quickly move through, and usher in our next round of Fantastic Fall weather for week's end. This is a pattern that is more typical of October around here.
Tropics: Quiet. The season is winding down, and conditions are increasingly more hostile over the Atlantic to support any tropical development.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 60/73 50/66 47/68 40 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 61/74 51/67 46/68 50 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 62/75 52/68 48/70 30 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 57/72 48/65 44/66 20 0 0 0 0 0
POE 58/72 49/65 44/66 10 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 64/74 53/69 48/69 60 0 0 0 0 0
Tonight...Mostly Cloudy with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Turning Much Cooler and Windy after midnight. Rain ending after midnight with Decreasing Cloudiness. Low 60. SSW wind 10-15 mph, becoming NNW and increasing to 15-20 mph and gusty after midnight.
Friday...Mostly Sunny, Breezy, and Much Cooler. High 73. NNW wind 15-20 mph and gusty. NNW wind 15-20 mph and gusty.
Friday Night...Clear and Cool. Low 50. North wind 10-15 mph.
Saturday...Sunny, Windy, and Cooler. High 66. NNW wind 15-25 mph and gusty, diminishing late.
Saturday Night...Clear and Cool. Low 47. North wind 10 mph.
Sunday...Sunny. High 68. North wind 5-10 mph.
7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity
Friday
10-16-09
Low: 60
High: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 15-20
Saturday
10-17-09
Low: 50
High: 66
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 15-25
Sunday
10-18-09
Low: 47
High: 68
Rain: 0%
Wind: North 5-10
Monday
10-19-09
Low: 45
High: 72
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
Tuesday
10-20-09
Low: 52
High: 75
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 5-10
Wednesday
10-21-09
Low: 59
High: 78
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Thursday
10-22-09
Low: 63
High: 74
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSW/NNW 10-20
...Marine Forecast...
*Small Craft Advisory is in Effect from 4a.m. Friday through 4a.m. Sunday.*
Tonight...Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet after midnight. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Friday...North winds around 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet building to 5 to 7 feet in the afternoon.
Friday Night...Northeast winds around 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet.
Saturday...North winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet.
Saturday Night...North winds 20 to 25 knots becoming northeast 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 6 to 8 feet...diminishing 4 to 6 feet late.
Sunday...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet.
...Tide Data...
Friday Tides:
Low: 8:06a.m. 8:53p.m.
High: 12:56a.m. 2:00p.m.
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Thursday, October 15, 2009
Low: 79* *-Record Warm Minimum
Normal Low: 59
Record Low: 40-1907
High: 90
Normal High: 81
Record High: 93-1947
Rainfall:
Today: Trace
Month to Date: 5.01"
Normal Month to Date: 2.04"
Year to Date: 51.99"
Normal Year to Date: 46.08"
Record: 5.60"-1925
Sunrise Friday: 7:16a.m.
Sunset Friday: 6:41p.m.
Good night and God bless!
-DM-
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