SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The cool, refreshing air in place over the weekend was replaced today as a warm front moved through the forecast area. Showers and thunderstorms occurred across much of the area as well, as lift created by the advancing warm front, and energy from the Subtropical Jet Stream interacted to produce this activity. While rainfall amounts, were far less than those of last Friday, brief downpours occurred this afternoon. The cool 60s of Sunday were replaced with warm and muggy 80s across the area as the warm air lifted Northward, and an onshore flow was re-established across the forecast area. Areas of fog and light rain or drizzle were in place early this morning as the stable air mass was becoming displaced. The warm front continues to slowly lift Northward tonight, and at present the boundary was located from near Jasper, TX to Baton Rouge. The warm sector has enveloped the entire forecast area. With a deep, tropical air mass in place, and energy embedded within the persistent Subtropical Jet Stream will keep rain chances on the high side for the next few days. Rain chances will be present at night as well, and on the high side for tonight. Radar shows a few areas of showers and thunderstorms at this hour, with one area between Beaumont and Houston in SE Texas. Storms are building up over the coastal waters as the influx of deep tropical moisture behind the warm front continues. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight with overcast skies, and above normal temperatures with lows in the mid to upper 70s.
Tuesday-Wednesday...A warm and humid air mass will be in place as a deep Southerly flow dominates the weather across the forecast area, with a strong trough and attendant cold front dropping SEward into the Great Plains at this time. High rain chances are maintained for Tuesday as another embedded disturbance in the persistent SWly flow will rotate across the area. This, along with the festering warm front just North of our area will co-exist to produce the high rain chances. The best chance will come during the afternoon as additional energy is displaced with the effects of daytime heating, but rain and thunderstorms are certainly possible in the morning with moisture pooling just offshore. Activity will taper off later in the day on Tuesday as the disturbance moves out of the area. Scattered activity will still be possible with the deep tropical air mass in place, and the warm front in close vicinity. Only scattered air mass showers and thunderstorms are expected overnight Tuesday through Wednesday. Rain chances will back off for Wednesday with the unseasonably warm and humid air mass in place. With no large scale weather systems expected, only scattered showers and storms are expected. Generally, Mostly Cloudy skies are expected but a few peaks of sun are expected each day. Temperatures will be above normal for highs and lows with lows in the mid to upper 70s, and highs in the upper 80s.
Thursday...The deep trough and associated cold front will be moving into and through the area during this forecast period. The moist, unstable air mass in place will be displaced with showers and thunderstorms expected ahead of this boundary. As of right now, the front is forecast to arrive late in the day, likely mid-late afternoon. Rain chances will increase once again in response to the front, but as of right now, severe weather is not anticipated, and models indicate that it will be a quick mover, so this should limit a heavy rainfall threat with the front, though some strong storms are a possibility with such a sharp trough depicted by models. Thursday will be the last of the unseasonably warm and humid days for awhile as the front moves through and scours out the humidity. A much cooler and drier air mass will filter into the region in the wake of the front Thursday night. After highs in the upper 80s to near 90 on Thursday afternoon, overnight temperatures will cool off to the upper 50s to lower 60s. Winds will become a factor as well shifting from onshore to offshore behind the front.
Friday....A period of Outstanding October weather will set up in the wake of Thursday's front. Conditions will vastly improve on Friday with the cool, dry air mass filtering into the region via gusty NNW winds Not much of a diurnal range is expected on Friday, as a strong CAA pattern is established, and a large high pressure moves our way ready to dominate the forecast. Some lingering cloud cover behind the front overnight Thursday into early Friday will quickly wither way. As we close out the work week, maximum temperatures will be quite different with a switch from above normal to below normal. Readings will only top out in the upper 60s, some 20 degrees cooler than that of Thursday.
The weekend...It sure looks like Mother Nature will finally pay us back after several lackluster weather weekends in a row. This time around, the weekend is looking outstanding...What most of us have been looking forward during the fall, and what we've been robbed of so far this season in this El Nino pattern! Canadian high pressure will dominate the weather all weekend, and the end result will be Sunny skies, cool and dry conditions. It will be absolutely perfect for anything outdoors and we'll finally have some perfect football weather. Many of you will likely want to wear a jacket with morning lows on Saturday in the lower 50s, and upper 40s expected for Sunday. Afternoon highs will rebound nicely with wall-to-wall sunshine and the low humidity in place. Expect highs to reach the upper 60s on Saturday and lower 70s on Sunday.
Monday and the extended...The end of the forecast period offers a continuance of the beautiful weekend weather expected. High pressure will reside over the Gulf coast at the start of next week, and keep the beautiful weather in place. Absolutely no rainfall is expected after Thursday, and a significantly drier pattern more representative of October may be established in the wake of the front. For Monday, temperatures will remain very pleasant, though just a tad warmer than that of the weekend. Another cool morning is expected with lows well down in the 50s again, while afternoon highs reach the mid 70s. Another cool front will move into range just beyond the 7 day period, but with limited moisture as shown by models as of now, rain chances remain absent from the forecast for another few days, as the front will just keep the fresh air in place. Now, that's October!!!
Tropics: Quiet. A very hostile environment remains in place over the Atlantic Basin, thank you El Nino. No tropical storm formation is expected through mid-week, and probably beyond.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 75/86 75/88 76/88 60 70 40 40 30 60
LFT 74/86 75/89 76/89 60 70 40 40 30 60
BPT 77/87 77/89 77/88 60 70 40 40 30 60
AEX 70/82 74/86 75/85 60 70 40 40 30 70
POE 70/83 75/87 75/86 60 70 40 40 30 70
ARA 76/86 77/88 77/87 60 70 40 40 30 70
Tonight...Mostly Cloudy with Showers and Thunderstorms Likely after Midnight. Patchy Fog Possible Towards Sunrise. Unseasonably Warm and Humid. Low 75. SSE wind 10 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
Tuesday...Mostly Cloudy with Showers and Thunderstorms Likely. Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible at Times. High 86. SSE wind 10-15 mph Chance of Rain 70%.
Tuesday Night...Mostly Cloudy with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Continued Unseasonably Warm and Humid. Low 75. SSE wind 10 mph.
Wednesday...Mostly Cloudy with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms High 88. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Wednesday Night...Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Patchy Fog after midnight. Low 76. SE wind 10 mph.
Thursday...Mostly Cloudy with Showers and Thunderstorms Likely. High 88. SSE wind 15-20 mph and gusty.
7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity
Tuesday
10-13-09
Low: 75
High: 86
Rain: 70%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Wednesday
10-14-09
Low: 75
High: 88
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Thursday
10-15-09
Low: 76
High: 88
Rain: 60%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Friday
10-16-09
Low: 59
High: 67
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
Saturday
10-17-09
Low: 51
High: 68
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
Sunday
10-18-09
Low: 48
High: 72
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
Monday
10-19-09
Low: 52
High: 76
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
...Marine...
Tonight...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Tuesday Night...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Wednesday...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Wednesday Night...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday...North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Tide Data...
Tuesday Tides:
Low: 6:51a.m. 5:52p.m.
High: 12:16a.m. 9:09p.m.
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Monday, October 12, 2009
Low: 67
Normal Low: 60
Record Low: 42-1910
High: 84
Normal High: 82
Record High: 91-1929
Rainfall...
Today: 0.04"
Month to Date: 4.81"
Normal Month to Date: 1.68"
Year to Date: 51.79"
Normal Year to Date: 45.72"
Record: 1.60"-1901
Sunrise Tuesday: 7:14a.m.
Sunset Tuesday: 6:44p.m.
Good night and God bless!!!
-DM-
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