SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Quite a deluge across the Lake Area today. The Flash Flood Watch was certainly prudent, and it will be in effect through the night for the entire forecast area. The cold front that I talked about last night made its way into the forecast area, but as it did slow it slowed to a snail's pace. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms moved slowly across the forecast area from W to E throughout the day. The leading edge of this activity moved across the Sabine River around noon, but didn't move into Lake Charles until just before 3:00, to give you an idea of how slow it was moving. The cold front really slowed down as it moved into SW Louisiana, as it began to feel the effects of a developing low pressure of the coast of Texas. The cold front has since passed through Lake Charles, and is encroaching on Lafayette at this hour. The very heavy rain experienced across much of Calcasieu Parish this afternoon has weakened considerably, though some heavy rain is ongoing between Jennings and Lafayette and across much of Acadiana. The heaviest rainfall overnight will be across Acadiana as the front slowly trudges through, and the surface low advances to the NE. With the surface low over the Gulf waters, moisture will continue to be pulled Northward across the forecast area. Mostly light to moderate rain and drizzle is expected in areas behind the cool front while a threat for heavy rain and thunderstorms will exist in the pre-frontal environment. Overnight lows will vary from W to E with the coolest readings across Toledo Bend to Alexandria and the warmest readings over Acadiana. Expect cooler readings under a CAA pattern in the wake of the front with lows in the lower 50s around Alexandria and Fort Polk to around 60 for lower Acadiana. Rainfall amounts overnight will average 2-3" with isolated higher amounts of 4-5". It has been a very wet day for Lake Charles with officially over 5.25" of rainfall at the Lake Charles Regional Airport. Widespread flooding occurred across the area between 3 and 7p.m. Conditions have improved somewhat in the Lake Area, though it is still raining. In the cool sector, only a constant light to moderate rain is expected with up to additional 1" expected around Lake Charles. For the threat of additional rains, the Flood Watch that was issued this morning will continue until 7a.m.. Tuesday. No severe weather is expected across the forecast area, as the surface low takes a track similar to what I mentioned last night into SE Louisiana.
On Tuesday, expect conditions to improve drastically. Rain will end during the morning, and will likely be over with in the Lake Charles area by sunrise, and in the Lafayette area by mid-morning Tuesday. The back edge of the rain was slowly moving Eastward at present, and is located between Houston and Beaumont. Once the rain ends, the overcast conditions will hang tough for much of the day as a low deck extends way back into Texas behind the front. Only a slow clearing is expected, but I do believe we'll see some sunshine before the day is out. It will be on the cool side with temperatures struggling to reach the mid 60s. Drier air will continue filtering in behind the slow moving cold front and departing low pressure which will move into Mississippi during the day Tuesday. Some patchy light rain or drizzle is possible beyond sunrise Tuesday as some residual moisture lingers until the drier air becomes more significant Tuesday afternoon. Clear and cool weather is expected Tuesday night with seasonable weather for late October. Expect temperatures to drop into the mid 40s north to lower 50s at the coast. A beautiful day is on tap for Wednesday as temporary ridging takes effect. Skies should be sunny with highs in the mid 70s. This welcome respite from the rain will be short-lived as another quick turnaround commences late Wednesday.
A return flow will quickly be established Wednesday afternoon as the high pressure quickly slides to the East. This will open the Gulf full throttle once again, to increase low-level moisture in earnest Wednesday night. Clouds will quickly return with the deep moisture looming just offshore and poised to move in as soon as it's given the chance. A strong WAA pattern will take over quickly replacing the brief cool down. Scattered showers and thunderstorm development certainly can't be ruled out during the overnight hours as the low-
level onshore flow continues to intensify, and some air mass showers develop. I will maintain a dry forecast
until after midnight Thursday for the entire forecast area, with highest rain chances over SE Texas. Much
warmer temperatures are in store with the vigorous return flow in place. Expect minimums only in the low
60s.
For Thursday, more rain is expected as the next in a series of storm systems affects the area. This one is
shaping up to be stronger than today's system. I don't want to get into all the specifics of it just yet, as we're
still coming out of the first system, but it is not too early to start looking at the system more in depth. A
deepening trough coming out of the Rockies and added energy from the Jet Stream will create cyclogenesis
over Texas on Wednesday, and the surface low will move to the East along with the trailing cold front. All of
this will tap into the ample amounts of Gulf moisture across our area to produce more widespread rain and
thunderstorms. With such an amplified trough coming across, this will produce an environment more conducive for severe weather across the entire area, and it is possible that all modes of severe weather are possible at this time. As we get closer to Thursday, I will elaborate even further on the impinging system. I should also note at this time, that we will likely be under Flash Flood Watches once again as we won't have had nearly enough time to dry out from today's rain, and the ground will remain very saturated. Several inches of rainfall will be likely once again, and this only exacerbate the flooding situation across the area. It is certainly difficult to pinpoint who will receive the most rain, but it is highly possible that someone across the forecast area will receive over 5" of rain once again with this event. The timing of this event is one that should be similar to today's with the widespread rainfall moving into the forecast area during the afternoon hours eventually overspreading the entire area. The worst of the weather with this system will come overnight Thursday through early Friday. This system looks to slow down a bit as well as it moves into the forecast area, as the ridge to our east strengthens for a short time. I will attempt to narrow down a time frame for the worst of the weather as the system gets closer. A temperature forecast for Thursday and Thursday night is one that offers a big warm up with afternoon highs possibly exceeding the 80 degree mark. Mild conditions still in place for Thursday night with lows only dropping to the mid to upper 60s. The pressure gradient will strengthen across our forecast area as well in response to a strengthening low over Texas and the high pressure over the SE U.S. This will result in conditions that will be quite windy Thursday.
Friday-Sunday... At this time I will maintain a forecast of likely shower and thunderstorm activity for Friday morning as models are consistent enough in slowing down frontal passage. Severe weather and heavy rain will certainly carry over into Friday if this is the case. Conditions will improve during the day Friday with an offshore flow retuning in the wake of the front. Drier and much cooler air will replace the warm, humid air mass ahead of the front. Skies will clear during the day, as things should progress a bit faster once the front clears the area. Not much of a diurnal range is anticipated for Friday with the strengthening CAA pattern taking over. I expect highs to be just a few degrees warmer than the morning low remaining below 70. The much cooler and drier air will infiltrate the region in time for High School Football Friday night. Aside from a very soggy and muddy field, the weather should be dry and cool for the games. Temperatures will be quite cool that night down into the 40s for most locations for lows. The weekend looks great once again. It should clear and cool for all Halloween activities, and great weather for all the ball games. We'll need it to as we'll need to dry out from the two big systems this week. Highs should be in the comfortable range...the 70s for both Saturday and Sunday while overnight lows will be similar to that of Friday night in the 40s for most locations as we head into November Sunday.
Monday & the Extended...High pressure continues into early next week, and that should promise pleasant and seasonable weather for early November. Temperatures will moderate a bit as the overall flow flattens out a bit and the coolest air retreats Northward, but it will still be pleasant with 50s for lows and 70s for highs and a continuation of low humidity. The period just beyond the forecast period continues to show Pacific high pressure in control with some more pleasant weather on tap. Air mass modification will occur after that as the controlling high slips to our East, but the next weather system coming down the endless parade in an El Nino pattern will still be a few days away. I would expect an active weather pattern to continue for the first half of November. November is typically a very active weather month around here anywhere, and you have to figure with the added influence of El Nino that this will be an even more active November.
Tropics: All is quiet on the tropical front.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 57/67 49/75 62/81 70 40 0 0 40 80
LFT 60/69 48/75 60/82 100 60 0 0 40 70
BPT 55/68 51/76 64/83 40 20 0 0 50 80
AEX 52/65 45/75 56/80 70 30 0 0 60 90
ARA 63/71 50/75 61/81 100 60 0 0 40 70
*Flood Watch in effect through 7a.m. Tuesday.*
Tonight...Rain Likely. Additional rainfall amounts up to 1" possible. Cooler. Low 57. NNW wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 70%.
Tuesday...Cloudy and Cooler with a 40% chance of mainly light rain or drizzle in the morning. Decreasing Cloudiness in the afternoon. High 67. North wind 10-15 mph.
Tuesday Night...Clear and Cool. Low 49. Light NE wind.
Wednesday...Sunny. High 75. East wind becoming SE 5-10 mph.
Wednesday Night...Increasing Cloudiness becoming Cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms developing overnight. Much Warmer. Low 62. SSE wind 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 40% after midnight.
Thursday...Cloudy, Warm, and Windy with Showers and Thunderstorms Becoming Likely. Some severe weather possible. Rain will be heavy at times with another 1-3" of rain expected. SSE wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 80%.
7 Day Outlook
Tuesday
10-27-09
Low: 57
High: 67
Rain: 40% AM
Wind: NNW 10-15
Wednesday
10-28-09
Low: 48
High: 75
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE/SE 5-10
Thursday
10-29-09
Low: 62
High: 81
Rain: 80%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Friday
10-30-09
Low: 64
High: 66
Rain: 60%
Wind: SSW/NNW 15-20
Saturday
10-31-09
Halloween
Low: 48
High: 72
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
Sunday
11-1-09
All Saints Day
Daylight Savings Time...Fall Back
Low: 45
High: 74
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
Monday
11-2-09
Low: 50
High: 75
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Rain and isolated thunderstorms.
Tuesday...Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the afternoon. Isolated showers in the morning.
Tuesday Night...North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet after midnight.
Wednesday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 3 feet in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet building to 4 to 5 feet after midnight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms after midnight.
Thursday...South winds 20 to 30 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet. Numerous showers and thunderstorms.
...Tide Data...
Tuesday Tides:
Low: 5:05p.m.
High: 11:59p.m.
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Monday, October 26, 2009
Low: 59
Normal Low: 55
Record Low: 39-1909
High: 75
Normal High: 77
Record High: 92-1927
Rainfall:
Today: ***5.31"
Month to Date: 12.58"
Normal Month to Date: 3.31"
Year to Date: 59.56"
Normal Year to Date: 47.35"
Record: 5.31"-2009
Sunrise Tuesday: 7:23a.m.
Sunset Tuesday: 6:30p.m.
Good night and God bless!
-DM-
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