SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Another day of unseasonable warmth and high humidity across the forecast area. We are in between weather systems with a slow moving warm front draped across North Louisiana, keeping a deep onshore flow in place to its South, while the next deep trough and associated cold front is moving through the Rockies and into the Great Plains tonight. With the deep Gulf moisture in place, scattered showers and thunderstorms occurred across the area today with brief heavy downpours placed randomly across the area...very much like a summer day!!! Unseasonably warm temperatures for both highs and lows were reported once again with mid to upper 70s for minimums, and upper 80s to lower 90s for maximums. It will be a quiet night across the area as all shower and thunderstorm activity has come to an end with the loss of daytime heating. Patchy fog is possible overnight with another night of unseasonable warmth. This will all be changing in about 24 hours...
Thursday...Another unseasonably hot day is in store ahead of the front. In fact, temperatures will likely exceed 90 across much of the area with increased subsidence and compressional heating ahead of the cold front. Like we always do in the summer months, we'll have a heat index on Thursday, which is unusual for October. Some locations may approach record highs. The record at Lake Charles for Thursday is 93, but this appears to be safe at this time. Some drier air in the mid and upper levels will allow for less in the way of shower and thunderstorm activity, but scattered activity is still expected with the effects of daytime heating. Rain chances will increase later in the day, and overnight as the front moves into our area. While this a rather potent front, many dynamical factors are lacking out ahead of it to produce significant rainfall or severe weather, so only scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected even ahead of frontal passage. Rain chances will come to an end overnight with temperatures dropping and winds shifting in the wake of the front. As of right now, the ETA (estimated time of arrival) for the much anticipated front looks be around 4p.m. for Alexandria-Fort Polk, 6p.m. for Beaumont, 7p.m. for Lake Charles and 10p.m. for Lafayette. Clouds will linger for a time behind the front, and certainly can't rule out a few post-frontal showers either, but the deep moisture will quickly be scoured out with the front. Winds will shift and increase behind the front with SSE winds 10-15 mph ahead of it, becoming NNW at 15-20 mph in its wake. Temperatures will begin to drop as well. After highs in the 90s on Thursday, overnight lows will drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s across the area.
Friday...Much better! Fall will be here!!! The day may start with a few clouds behind the front, but all in all it should be a Sunny day. Temperatures will be much cooler with highs actually below normal only in the low to mid 70s. A pronounced Cold Air Advection (CAA) will be in place with strong NNW winds up to 20 mph at times. Finally, some true football weather is expected for High School Football with clear skies and cool temperatures. Temperatures will be in the 60s at kickoff falling into the 50s during the game. Eventual overnight lows will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s Perfect!
Saturday-Sunday....The coolest weather of the season is in store. A secondary surge of cold air will move through on Saturday as the CAA pattern continues with a NW flow aloft in place. It will a beautiful day Saturday with nothing but sunshine, very low humidity and cool temperatures. High temperatures will not make it to 70 degrees, in fact many areas may only top out in the mid 60s. Perhaps, the only fly in the ointment Saturday will be the wind. Gusty winds are expected as the secondary surge of cool air moves in, and a building Canadian high to our North builds towards the Gulf coast. The pressure differences between fronts, and the strong high to the North will increase the gradient across the area, and the resultant wind speeds will be in excess of 25 mph at times with gusts over 30 mph likely at times. As the high nudges further South during the day, the winds will decrease somewhat, but not completely. Strong CAA will usher in the coldest temperatures thus far this season on Saturday night with 40s area wide. So, it will be quite chilly for the McNeese Homecoming game with temperatures in the 50s throughout the game. Eventual minimums for Saturday night/Sunday morning will be in the mid to upper 40s, and with the breezy conditions, believe it or not, a wind chill may come into play for the first time by Sunday morning. It'll actually feel like the upper 30s with the wind. For Sunday, high pressure builds in over East Texas, and winds subside. It will be about as beautiful as it ever gets in SW Louisiana with comfortable high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s, and very low humidity. It'll be perfect for anything outside, but I'm sure a lot of us will be inside after church watching the Saints vs. Giants in New Orleans.
Monday-Wednesday...The crisp, cool weather will reach its peak Sunday night into Monday morning with the coolest readings for lows since back in early April...low to mid 40s. High pressure will be right over head, resulting in very light or calm winds Sunday night to aid in radiative cooling processes. It will be a perfect night for radiational cooling. The high will dominate the weather at the beginning of the work week with a quick warm up during the day with maximums in the lower 70s. Subtle changes begin on Tuesday, but a benign weather pattern remains in place overall. The large Canadian high pressure will begin to move East late Monday, and this will result in air mass modification across our area beginning Monday night as winds take on a more Easterly component. It'll be another cool night with lows back into the 50s, very seasonable to say the least. Nice weather is in place for Tuesday, but an onshore flow will develop during the day which will start the increase in low-level moisture and humidity values. Maximums will be back near seasonable in the mid to upper 70s. At the end of the forecast period on Wednesday, a dry forecast is maintained, but a much more noticeable increase in humidity is expected with an intensifying low-level onshore flow. Moderating temperatures will continue as well with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s and highs in the lower 80s. The next cold front is not expected until after the end of this forecast period. A much, welcomed period to dry out and enjoy some true Fall weather is in store!
Tropics: Quiet, and will stay that way with such a hostile environment in place.
Preliminary Numbers and Zone Forecast:
LCH 76/91 61/72 52/66 10 40 40 0 0 0
LFT 75/91 60/73 51/65 10 40 40 0 0 0
BPT 77/92 62/73 54/66 10 40 30 0 0 0
AEX 73/87 56/70 48/62 10 40 30 0 0 0
POE 74/87 57/71 49/63 10 40 30 0 0 0
ARA 77/90 63/75 53/67 10 40 40 0 0 0
Tonight...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with Patchy Fog developing towards morning. Unseasonably Warm. Low 76. Light SSE wind.
Thursday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy,Unseasonably Hot, and Breezy with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially later in the day. High 91. Heat Indices 100-105 in the afternoon. SSW wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 40%.
Thursday Night...Mostly Cloudy with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly before midnight. Turning Cooler and Windy by midnight. Low 61. SSW wind 10-15 mph, becoming NNW at 15-20 mph and gusty by midnight. Skies clearing late.
Friday...Becoming Sunny, Windy, and Much Cooler. High 72. NNW wind 15-20 mph and gusty.
Friday Night...Clear, Breezy, and Cool. Low 52. NNW wind 10-15 mph.
Saturday...Sunny, Windy, and Cool. High 66. NNW wind 20-25 mph with gusts over 30 mph at times until mid-afternoon, then decreasing to 15-20 mph and gusty late.
7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity
Thursday
10-15-09
Low: 76
High: 91
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSW 15-20
Friday
10-16-09
Low: 61
High: 72
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 15-20
Saturday
10-17-09
Low: 52
High: 66
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-25
Sunday
10-18-09
Low: 47
High: 67
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-15
WC.: 37-42 A.M.
Monday
10-19-09
Low: 44
High: 72
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
W.C.: 35-40 Early A.M.
Tuesday
10-20-09
Low: 51
High: 76
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 5-10
Wednesday
10-21-09
Low: 58
High: 81
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Isolated showers in the evening.
Thursday...Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday Night...West winds around 10 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet building to 4 to 5 feet after midnight. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Friday...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Friday Night...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet after midnight.
Saturday...North winds 15 to 25 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
...Tide Data...
Thursday Tides:
Low: 11:56a.m. 11:55p.m.
High: 1:45a.m. 8:24p.m.
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
Low: 76
Normal Low: 59
Record Low: 40-1917
High: 91
Normal High: 81
Record High: 97-1910
Rainfall...
Today: 0.00" (LCH Airport)
Month to Date: 5.01"
Normal Month to Date: 1.92"
Year to Date: 51.99"
Normal Year to Date: 45.96"
Record: 4.17"-1925
Sunrise Thursday: 7:15a.m.
Sunset Thursday: 6:42p.m.
Good night and God bless!
-DM-
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