SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...It was a decent day overall weather wise, but you could certainly tell that changes are on the way. It was much more humid than the previous few days. Temperatures were several degrees warmer with readings in the mid to upper 70s, and there was a noted increase in cloud cover. This is most definitely a harbinger of things to come over the next 24-48 hours. As our next storm system organizes over the Rocky Mountains, the low-level Southerly flow out in front of it has become well established, and this will continue overnight. The established return flow will allow for much warmer temperatures as well as a continued increase in cloud cover. Overnight lows will range from the upper 50s to mid 60s. A dry forecast is expected overnight. The next storm system is on track to affect the area beginning late Wednesday through Thursday. The digging trough and attendant cold front will intertwine with the remnants of Tropical Storm Rick. This will result in a significant rainfall event across the area for the aforementioned time frame.
For Wednesday, the moisture increase will continue. Clouds will increase in earnest as low clouds over the Gulf move inland, and high clouds being sheared off from Tropical Storm Rick stream in via the Subtropical Jet Stream as well. It is evident by looking at satellite and radar that the next system is gaining momentum to our West with widespread showers and thunderstorms over West Texas and New Mexico stretching Northward into Colorado. All of this will continue sliding Eastward overnight through Wednesday as the trough sharpens coming out of the Rockies. Clouds will continue to thicken as we progress through the day, and as the system approaches rain chances will return to the forecast during the afternoon. The approach of the tropical system and cold front will help to destabilize the atmosphere and breaking the cap currently in place, thus the commencement of rain chances for the Wednesday afternoon period. Rainfall will be sporadic at first, but become more likely and widespread during the overnight hours. Temperatures modification will continue as well with the moisture pumping in off the Gulf. Maximum will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The low-level Southerly flow will intensify as well due to the typical pressure gradient differences that arise in this pattern. A heavy rainfall threat begins overnight Wednesday as the moisture from Tropical Storm Rick gets caught up in the SWly flow in place out ahead of the approaching trough. The most likely time for widespread rain will come after midnight. Rain and thunderstorms are expected, but no severe weather is anticipated at this time. Overnight lows will be above normal well into the 60s with the clouds and rain and continued onshore flow.
Thursday...Wet! 1-3" of rain is expected area wide, and some localized flooding can't be ruled out. The tropical moisture and approaching cold front will be the necessary lifting mechanisms with maximum surface convergence ahead of the boundary. Rain and thunderstorms are expected throughout the day with the cold front moving through the forecast area during the afternoon hours. As of right now, it looks like the front will enter the Northern portions of the forecast area around lunch time Thursday, reaching Lake Charles mid-late afternoon, and entering the coastal waters after sunset Thursday. While convergence will be at a maximum resulting in widespread shower and thunderstorm activity, the parameters required to produce significant severe weather will be lacking. I still can't rule out one or two severe thunderstorms, but this seems like a miniscule proposition at this time. Wind shear is only marginal at best according to current projections from forecast models, so that should limit any tornado threat, but some strong winds are possible especially if a squall line develops. Regardless, rain chances are maxed out for Thursday. Rain will begin to taper off Thursday night as the front scours out the deep moisture, and dry, cool air begins to filter into the region as winds shift back to offshore. This will establish a CAA pattern across the forecast area. A period of light rain and/or drizzle is expected for Thursday evening and Thursday night as the more stable air mass moves in. As I said a moment ago, average rainfall amounts will be 1-3" across the forecast area, but by the time the dust (or in this case mud) settles Thursday night someone could end up with over 5" of rain for this event. I will break down the heavy rainfall potential even further on Wednesday's forecast package. Don't expect much of a temperature gradient (diurnal range) on Thursday with all the clouds and rain around. Highs should stay just shy of the 80 degree threshold, but it will certainly be warm and humid. Cooler conditions take over Thursday night with overnight lows down into the mid to upper 50s for most locales.
Friday-Sunday...Not much has really changed since last night's forecast package as far as the timing of the next system, and we're still on track for drastic improvement on Friday. If clouds don't clear out overnight Thursday, they will do so early on Friday, and skies will become Sunny during the morning. A refreshing Northerly breeze will be in place as ridging processes take control of the weather in the wake of the departing front. Underneath a strengthening CAA pattern a small diurnal range is expected with afternoon maximums reaching near 70. Humidity values will drop off drastically for the afternoon as well. The weather looks fantastic for all football games this weekend. The weekend looks great for all outdoor activities, and is looking like deja vu after this past weekend. The air mass behind this front will be very similar to the current eroding air mass. Low temperatures will be in the comfortable range with 40s and 50s once again for both Saturday and Sunday morning, while afternoon highs will be pleasant in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Gumbo weather once again! McNeese has a home game against the SE Louisiana Lions Saturday night, so you might need a jacket or sweater again, but no umbrella, and the same goes for LSU which hosts Auburn at 6:30 in Death Valley. I told you Mother Nature would pay us back one day after all those less than stellar weekends in recent weeks!
Monday, Tuesday, & the Extended...Rounding out the forecast period early next week offers a continuation of nice weather. Another trough digs in on Monday, and its associated cold front will push through, but moisture availability is lacking, so no rainfall is expected at this time. A few clouds are possible as this dry front pushes through, otherwise no sensible weather is expected. The front will help to re-enforce the already pleasant air mass in place, and provide with some more Outstanding October weather as we enter the final week of October already. Temperatures will moderate a bit from the weekend, but certainly remain in the pleasant category with the actual readings ranging from just below normal to near normal. The next major weather maker doesn't move into our area until just beyond this forecast period. A well pronounced trough will be sharpening over the Mid West and Great Plains and head SE towards the Gulf coast. This will bring another strong cold front into the area next Wednesday or Thursday, and provide the next chance of rain for the forecast area. It is too early to say how much we'll get, but it looks like the front will be a quick mover. A significant cool down should follow this front, and this could lead to a cool Halloween weekend. More on that in the coming days!
Tropics: The Atlantic Basin remains very quiet. We have passed prime time in the Atlantic basin, and for intents and purposes the season is over for the Gulf of Mexico with water temperatures way too cool to support any tropical development. However, the Caribbean still supports sea-surface temperatures that are conducive for development. There is one area of disturbed weather and associated broad surface low being monitored for development off the coast of Central America. Some slow development of this system is possible over the next couple of days. Little movement was noted at this time, and this system is expected to remain nearly stationary for the next couple of days. The system will bring heavy rainfall for the next few days over portions of Central America.
In the East Pacific, Tropical Storm Rick continues to churn off the coast of Baja California. Top winds are at 65 mph, and Rick is actually maintaining himself pretty well tonight. It is already spreading moisture over mainland moisture with heavy rain and flash flooding expected over that area. Rick should maintain intensity through Wednesday as he heads towards the West coast of Mexico. Rick will quickly decrease in intensity after landfall over mainland Mexico. The digging trough over the Rockies will help steer Rick and his remnant moisture off to the NE over the mountains of Mexico and across the Gulf coast on Thursday. While Rick was once a category 5 storm with 180 mph winds over the weekend, it will mostly be a flood threat to Mexico over the next couple of days.
Elsewhere, no tropical storm formation is expected through Thursday.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 60/80 68/77 57/68 0 30 70 100 60 0
LFT 58/81 67/77 58/67 0 20 70 100 70 0
BPT 63/80 70/77 60/70 0 40 70 100 40 0
AEX 55/78 65/73 54/65 0 40 80 100 20 0
POE 56/79 66/74 55/66 0 40 80 100 20 0
ARA 59/79 69/78 59/68 0 20 70 100 70 0
Tonight...Partly to Mostly Cloudy and Not as Cool. Low 60. Light SE wind.
Wednesday...Mostly Cloudy and Breezy with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 80. SSE wind 15-20 mph and gusty.
Wednesday Night...Cloudy with Showers and Thunderstorms Likely. Heavy Rainfall at Times after Midnight. Low 68. SSE wind 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 70%.
Thursday...Cloudy and Windy with Showers and Thunderstorms Likely. Rain heavy at times. 1-3" of rainfall expected from Wednesday night through Thursday evening. Isolated amount up to 5" possible. High 77. SSW wind 10-15 mph in the morning becoming NNW 15-20 mph and gusty. Chance of Rain 100%.
Thursday Night...Rain Ending. Decreasing Cloudiness after Midnight. Much cooler and Windy. Low 57. NNW wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 60% before midnight.
Friday...Mostly Sunny. High 68. NNW wind 10-15 mph.
7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity
Wednesday
10-21-09
Low: 60
High: 80
Rain: 30% PM
Wind: SSE 15-20
Thursday
10-22-09
Low: 68
High: 77
Rain: 100%
Wind: SSW/NNW 10-20
Friday
10-23-09
Low: 57
High: 68
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
Saturday
10-24-09
Low: 47
High: 70
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
Sunday
10-25-09
Low: 45
High: 72
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
Monday
10-26-09
Low: 51
High: 75
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE/NW 10-15
Tuesday
10-27-09
Low: 48
High: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
...Marine Forecast...
*Small Craft Advisory*
Tonight...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday...Southeast winds around 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Wednesday Night...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening...then showers and thunderstorms likely after midnight.
Thursday...South winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet in the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday Night...East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight. Showers and thunderstorms in the evening...then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday...North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
...Tide Data...
Wednesday Tides:
Low: 11:16a.m.
High: 7:17p.m.
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
Low: 55
Normal Low: 57
Record Low: 32-1989
High: 79
Normal High: 79
Record High: 91-1927
Rainfall:
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 5.05"
Normal Month to Date: 2.61"
Year to Date: 52.03"
Normal Year to Date: 46.65"
Record: 2.16"-1949
Sunrise Wednesday: 7:19a.m.
Sunset Wednesday: 6:35p.m.
Good night and God bless!
-DM-
hey drew nice page.
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