SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...A warm, moist air mass remains in place across the forecast area tonight as the persistent SWly flow aloft continues. Another cold front stalled out near the area today, before retreating Northward to North Louisiana as a warm front tonight. Shower and thunderstorm activity was limited across the area today, due to a bit of drier air in the mid and upper levels, thus we experienced a bit more sunshine that was actually predicted. With a rather uneventful day weather wise, it was very warm and humid with high temperatures above normal, and more representative of July than October. Highs across the area were near 90, today, roughly 5-10 degrees above the normal for early October. It will remain quiet across the area tonight with the warm and humid air mass remaining firmly entrenched. The warm front will continue to push back into Southern Arkansas by morning. With the warm air in place, lows will be in the mid to upper 70s across the area, and locations across the Northern half of the forecast area may actually see rising temps overnight as the somewhat cooler, drier air in those locations retreats. Generally Partly to Mostly Cloudy skies are expected with no mention of showers, however, with copious amounts of low level moisture in place, some areas of fog can't be ruled out.
For Thursday, hot and humid conditions are expected once again as we remain under the influence of a persistent onshore flow. Another, much stronger cold front, has developed across the Great Plains, and will be moving our direction at this time. The warm and humid air mass is what we can expect until this front arrives. A scattered shower or thunderstorm or two can't be ruled out on Thursday basically resulting from afternoon heating, quite similar to a mid-summer day. Partly to Mostly Cloudy skies will prevail with maximum temperatures running well above normal once again near 90. Breezy conditions will develop as well in response to pressure differences associated with the forthcoming cold front. SE winds up to 15 mph in the afternoon are expected. Heat index values will also be a factor for Thursday, and these could exceed the 100 degree mark, so if you are outdoors use extreme caution...summer doesn't want to let go!!! Thursday night should be a quiet period as the warm and humid conditions continue, an isolated streamer shower or two can't be ruled out in the pre-frontal air mass. Low temperatures will be above normal again.
On Friday, the change occurs! The day will start relatively calm with the unseasonable warmth still in place as the front will be nearing a Dallas to Hot Springs line. Partly to Mostly Cloudy skies will prevail for the morning hours, and it will turn windy by afternoon as the Southerly flow intensifies as the front nears and energy from the Jet Stream ingests into the approaching trough. Rain chances will ramp up on Friday afternoon through Friday night as the front approaches and pushes through. Showers and thunderstorms are likely ahead of the boundary as it moves through the area, and a line of strong to possibly severe thunderstorms will develop out of the front on Friday, and push through the area. At this time, it looks like the most likely time frame for the worst of the weather to arrive will be between 6p.m. Friday and 2a.m. Saturday. While the threat for severe weather looks marginal at best at this time, it can't be ruled out, but all in all I believe the severe weather threat will be to our North where better dynamics to support severe weather will be in place. Nevertheless, heavy rainfall is likely, and the front will be slowing down as it enters our area, so there is the possibility of storms training over certain areas. The majority of forecast models certainly latch onto this idea, and 2-4" of rain seems likely on Friday through Friday night. Friday will be the last unseasonably warm day for awhile with highs running in the mid 80s again. The timing of the front is unfortunate for all the High School Football games, but perhaps the worst of the storms will come through before the games or wait til after...we'll see!!! The strong cold front will push into the coastal waters overnight Friday, and in its wake winds will shift from onshore to offshore, and temperatures will turn much cooler just in time for the weekend, but is that the end of the rain???
I could answer this is one word, but you know I'm all about details...No, the front will not mark the end of the rain. High rain chances are expected to continue through at least Saturday morning. There is some discrepancies with the models as far as when the rain shuts off, or at least as to when rain chances will lessen. A period of overrunning is expected behind the front, so overcast conditions along with intermittent rain and drizzle. The front will stall out somewhere over the Gulf waters, while moisture hangs around above the surface with the extra push of dry air stalling out for a time to our NW. This will give us a very breezy and much cooler day on Saturday with maximums struggling to reach 70...believe it or not!!! Rain and a few thunderstorms are likely in the morning as the front continues to slow down and push offshore, but as more stable air filters in with the cooler air mass, the rain will taper off to periods of mainly light rain and drizzle by afternoon. Clouds will hang tough all day. There's a chance that rain chances will end entirely early on Saturday, but the consensus right now is to maintain them for a better part of the day. As the drier air above the surface slowly punches in by Saturday night, rain chances will decrease to the slight category for the overnight hours. With the El Nino, and typical overrunning processes that occur around these parts in this pattern, I must retain rain chances for this period as well. Much cooler air will continue to infiltrate the region with lows well down into the 60s on Saturday night, we would likely see 50s if skies were clear, but this is not forecast at this time. It will feel brisk with a strong Northerly flow in place at the surface.
Some improvement is noted for Sunday, but overall the clouds should hang tough as the front runs into strong SW winds over the Central and Eastern Gulf. This will keep this front in place, and keep the drier air lodged to our North. Periods of light rain or drizzle are expected for Sunday as well as minor disturbances and energy embedded within the Subtropical Jet Stream move across the area behind the stalled front. Some peaks of sunshine are in the offing as well as strong Canadian high pressure tries to build in from the North. Afternoon highs will manage the mid 70s at best as we remain in a Cold Air Advection (CAA) set up. A dip in the Northern branch of the Jet Stream early next week should allow for an additional cold front to push through the area on Monday. This may help to squeeze out all the leftover moisture, enough so to call for some rain chance, though no widespread rain or thunderstorms are expected. This front should finally clear us out, and temperatures will drop a bit more. Some modification is expected ahead of this front for Monday though, with highs near 80.
High pressure settles in for the end of the forecast period on Tuesday and Wednesday, and this should set the stage for the nicest weather so far this fall season. Crisp, cool October mornings are in store for Tuesday and Wednesday with lows well down into the 50s, and highs in the mid 70s with sunny skies and low humidity...some of that October perfection we look forward to!!! The controlling high will slip East of the forecast area on Wednesday afternoon bringing back a subtle onshore flow, but this will be short lived as a re-enforcing cold front is expected just beyond this forecast period. At this time, that should occur on Thursday, and no rain is indicated at this time. That's a pattern that is more representative of October, as this is typically one of our driest months. The long range forecast at this time offers a smorgasbord of solutions, and one clear pattern is not established at this time. This inconsistency is typical in long range forecasts, but is elevated in an El Nino pattern.
Tropics: Last time we spoke, I mentioned the suspect "Grace". Well, what do you know...we have another named storm now!!! Though, this one is more legit, however, it will be short-lived due to the hostile environment that has dominated over the Atlantic this season. Henri, which was classified on Tuesday, is already on his death bed tonight. Tropical Storm Henri developed from the area of disturbed weather East of the Lesser Antilles. It peaked at 50 mph intensity early Tuesday morning, before it moved into a high shear environment to the NNE of the Lesser Antilles. Currently, Henri is a Tropical Depression with 35 mph winds, and is not expected to do much except bring some squally weather to the islands on Thursday, and the rest of the Caribbean on Friday, before fizzling out this weekend. Henri is no threat at all to the U.S.
A weak tropical wave off the NE coast of Venezuela may have some potential to develop further in the coming days, but development if any will be slow to occur, and this system will suffer the same fate as Henri with a highly sheared environment over the Caribbean. It is currently moving off to the WNW at 15-20 mph. Elsewhere, no tropical storm formation is expected through Friday.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecasts:
LCH 77/91 76/86 63/71 10 30 20 80 80 70
LFT 76/92 76/87 62/72 10 30 20 70 80 80
BPT 79/92 77/85 64/71 10 30 30 80 70 60
AEX 71/93 74/82 59.68 10 20 40 80 60 40
POE 72/93 75/82 59/69 10 20 40 80 60 40
ARA 78/92 78/87 63/72 10 30 20 70 80 80
Tonight...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with Patchy Fog towards morning. Unseasonably Warm. Low 77. SE wind 5-10 mph.
Thursday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy and Unseasonably Hot and Humid with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 91. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Thursday Night...Mostly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Continued Unseasonably Warm. Low 76. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Friday...Cloudy and Windy with Showers and Thunderstorms Likely during the afternoon. Some scattered showers and thunderstorms possible in the morning. Some severe weather and locally heavy rainfall possible late in the day. High 86. SSE wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Rainfall amounts 1-2". Chance of rain 80%.
Friday Night...Cloudy, Windy, and Turning Cooler with Showers and Thunderstorms Likely. Some Severe Weather and Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible. Low 63. SSW wind 15-20 mph and gusty, becoming NNW by midnight. Chance of rain 80%.
Saturday...Mostly Cloudy, Windy, and Much Cooler with Rain and Embedded Thunderstorms Likely in the Morning, transitioning to mainly Light Rain or Drizzle in the Afternoon. High 71. NNW 15-20 mph and gusty, decreasing to 10-15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70%.
7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity
Thursday
10-8-09
Low: 77
High: 91
Precip: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 97-102
Friday
10-9-09
Low: 76
High: 86
Precip: 80%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Saturday
10-10-09
Low: 63
High: 71
Precip: 70%
Wind: NNW 10-20
Sunday
10-11-09
Low: 61
High: 74
Precip: 30%
Wind: NNE 10-15
Monday
10-12-09
Low: 65
High: 80
Precip: 40%
Wind: E 10-15
Tuesday
10-13-09
Low: 56
High: 73
Precip: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
Wednesday
10-14-09
Low: 53
High: 77
Precip: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
...Marine...
Thursday...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday Night...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Friday...South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Friday Night...Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Saturday...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
...Tide Data...
Thursday Tides...
Low: 11:56a.m. 11:55p.m.
High: 1:45a.m. 8:24p.m.
...Lake Charles Climate Summary....
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
Low: 77
Normal Low: 62
Record Low: 45-1964
High: 90
Normal High: 83
Record High: 95-1911
Rainfall:
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 3.10"
Normal Month to Date: 1.04"
Year to Date: 50.08"
Normal Year to Date: 45.08"
Record: 2.40"-1984
Sunrise Thursday: 7:11a.m.
Sunset Thursday: 6:50p.m.
Good night and God bless!
-DM-
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