SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...An active El Nino weather pattern has been established across the country as we start a new work week. Another in a series of cold fronts moved through the area early this morning with some shower and thunderstorm activity out ahead of it. A brief period of drier air moved in behind it, but the front promptly stalled just offshore this afternoon. The upper air pattern across our region is one that is zonal (W to E), and one that doesn't favor a very significant push of cool, dry air. As the fronts move into our area, they slow down, and as they move further south into the Gulf where a stronger unfavorable upper level flow exists, they stall out, and retreat Northward. This is what happened with the front that came through on Friday, and will occur again this time around, and again later this week. The front will retreat Northward across the forecast area tonight, and be along the Hwy. 190 corridor by sunrise Tuesday. Despite the retreating boundary, a quiet night is in store with very limited rain chances expected under Partly to Mostly Cloudy skies. I can't rule out an isolated shower or two as the front moves Northward as a warm front, and the warm moist air returns to the Southern portions of the area. A tricky temperature forecast is expected as the cooler, drier air is deeper across Northern portions of the area, and they should remain to the North of the boundary overnight. A wide range in temperatures in the morning is possible across the forecast area with mid 60 for Alexandria and Fort Polk and mid 70s at the coast.
On Tuesday, the warm front will continue to move further inland, and the warm moist air will eventually encompass the entire forecast area once again. A very warm and humid October day is expected with a summer forecast is expected. A chance for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms primarily due to the effects of daytime heating will be in the forecast...very similar to a July or August afternoon. High temperatures will be near 90. Some sunshine is expected with sky conditions ranging from Partly to Mostly Cloudy with an onshore flow throughout the day. Warm and humid overnight on Tuesday with an isolated shower or thunderstorm not out of the question. On Wednesday, another cold front moving out of the Great Plains will be moving into the forecast area. With the moist, unstable air mass in place, this will help to spark off showers and thunderstorms, and higher chances for shower and thunderstorm activity will be expected. This front like its predecessors will struggle to make it into the coastal waters before stalling out. It should do so, during the afternoon hours on Wednesday. With the increased rain chances, temperatures will be a shade cooler. For Thursday, another summer-like day is expected as the front from Wednesday retreats Northward as a warm front with the same synoptic pattern still in place. Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity is expected in the warm sector and mostly due to diurnal heating processes. Above normal temperatures are expected with readings near 90 once again.
On Friday, a change in the overall pattern is expected. A strong cold front, and associated deep trough will be approaching out of the Rockies, and will begin to affect the area by later in the day. The deep tropical air mass in place out ahead of this front will help to produce some scattered shower and thunderstorms activity for the early portion of the day. At the same time, ahead of the front, along the Red River Valley, energy from the Jet Stream and the sharpening trough will likely initiate a squall line, which will be moving to the SE throughout the day. Some severe weather is possible with this system, as is very common in an El Nino pattern, an out of season severe weather event isn't totally impossible. The best dynamics for the production of severe weather look to remain just North of the forecast area, but it's still a bit soon to tell for sure. Either way, thunderstorms are likely especially later in the day Friday through Friday night. The usual timing differences for the front by the forecast models exists right now. Storms may be slow moving out ahead of the front, which will also be slowing down as it moves into the area. A heavy rainfall event with several inches of rainfall is possible. Afternoon highs on Friday with the clouds and storms around will be cooler than that of Thursday, but still above normal in the mid 80s. Cooler and drier air will begin filtering into the region Friday night, though there is some question at this point whether or not we'll completely clear out for the weekend, but at the very least it at least looks like we'll finally see a prolonged period of fall-like weather.
For the weekend...cooler and drier is the word. At this time, I will maintain a slight chance of a shower on Saturday with clouds hanging tough during the day as a temperature inversion remains in place just above the surface. A pronounced offshore flow will be in place in the wake of the front, and high temperatures will likely not reach 80. A secondary front arriving Saturday night into Sunday will finally help to remove the lingering clouds behind the strong front on Friday, and right now Sunday is shaping up to be very nice. A crisp and cool start to the day is expected with temperatures well down into the 50s area wide, and highs in the mid to upper 70s...a touch below normal for early-mid October. The current zonal flow in place will finally be displaced by a NWly flow at the surface and aloft, and this will allow for a very nice stretch of weather to close out the weekend, and roll over into next week. The coolest mornings of the season so far are expected for Sunday and next Monday with low to mid 50s. With dry air and low humidity in place, it should be a beautiful day with pleasant temperatures remaining just shy of 80 on Monday. Just beyond the forecast period, the first real true stretch of fall weather looks to continue as a series of re-enforcing fronts moves into the region, each one will help to drop temperatures a few degrees, and keep a dry pattern in place...typical of October.
Tropics: After an unusually quiet September largely thanks to El Nino, we have a named storm to talk about here in early October. However, it is absolutely no threat to the U.S., and isn't a very impressive looking system at all. Tropical Storm Grace was quickly classified a system on Sunday. Grace was located in the Northeastern Atlantic. It developed from a persistent area of convection, that developed a circulation, and based on ship data was classified a tropical system. Grace developed rapidly, and reached a peak intensity of 70 mph early this morning. It has already become extratropical as it has merged with a frontal system over the Far NE Atlantic, and as it moves NE towards Ireland. Other than bringing some squally weather to Ireland and Great Britain, it should not be much of a factor.
An area of low pressure about 875 miles to the East of the Lesser Antilles is moving to the WNW around 15 mph. This system has been around for a few days now, and is slowly getting better organized. The potential is there for this system to continue to become better organized over the next couple of days, and it may become a tropical depression possibly on Tuesday. If it does develop, it will likely not persist for very long as the upper level conditions over the Atlantic and Caribbean will not be conducive for development by the latter half of the week. This system will likely not be a threat to the United States.
Elsewhere: No tropical storm formation is expected through Wednesday.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecasts:
LCH 74/90 74/87 75/91 10 30 20 40 20 30
LFT 74/89 74/87 74/90 10 30 20 40 20 30
BPT 76/91 75/87 76/92 10 30 20 40 20 30
AEX 65/88 68/88 70/90 10 40 20 50 20 30
POE 66/89 69/88 71/90 10 40 20 50 20 30
Tonight...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with an isolated shower possible. Low 74. SE wind 10-15 mph.
Tuesday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 90. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Tuesday Night...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 74. SSE wind 10 mph.
Wednesday...Mostly Cloudy with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 87. SSW wind 10-15 mph becoming NNE in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night...Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 75. East wind 5-10 mpy becoming SSE 10 mph.
Thursday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 91. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity
Tuesday
10-6-09
Low: 74
High: 90
Precip: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Wednesday
10-7-09
Low: 74
High: 87
Precip: 40%
Wind: SSW/NNE 10-15
Thursday
10-8-09
Low: 75
High: 91
Precip: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Friday
10-9-09
Low: 75
High: 84
Precip: 70%
Wind: SSE/SSW 15-20
Saturday
10-10-09
Low: 63
High: 73
Precip: 20%
Wind: NNW 10-15
Sunday
10-11-09
Low: 54
High: 75
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 10-15
Monday
10-12-09
Low: 57
High: 78
Precip: 0%
Wind: NNE 5-10
...Marine...
Tuesday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday Night...South winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Wednesday...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Wednesday Night...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Tide Data...
Tuesday Tides:
Low: 10:24a.m. 10:58p.m.
High: 1:53a.m. 5:47p.m.
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Monday, October 5, 2009
Low: 69
Normal Low: 63
Record Low: 46-1987
High: 83
Normal High: 84
Record High: 96-1909
Rainfall:
Today: 0.28"
Month to Date: 3.10"
Normal Month to Date: 0.76"
Year to Date: 50.08"
Normal Year to Date: 44.80"
Record: 1.94"-1944
Sunrise Tuesday: 7:09a.m.
Sunset Tuesday: 6:52p.m.
Good night and God bless!
-DM-
No comments:
Post a Comment