SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Mother Nature finally paid us back with some Outstanding October weather over the weekend, which carried over into today as a large dominating high pressure continued to control the weather across the forecast area. While our weather was superb over the weekend, it was very interesting in other parts of the country with not one, but two Nor'Easters over the weekend from the Mid-Atlantic through New England. The high has since moved off to our East, bringing back a low-level Southerly flow, which will increase moisture over the next couple of days. It is noticeable as dew points are increasing across the area. This is in response to our next storm system which is currently taking shape over the Pacific Northwest and Rockies. As a result, moderating temperatures are expected beginning tonight. So, after 2 nights with temperatures in the 40s area wide, most of us will be in the 50s overnight tonight, with the coldest locations north of Hwy. 190 down into the upper 40s again. The coldest locations across the Northern portion of the forecast area this morning were in the upper 30s. The average lows in the 40s over the last couple of days has been a welcome change from the predominantly above normal temperatures we've seen so far this fall. A quiet night is in store across the area with clear skies expected on the edge of the departing high. After highs today in the low to mid 70s expect another pleasantly cool night, however, it'll be warmer than the previous two nights. The only sensible weather to contend with later tonight may be some Patchy Fog in response to the return flow, but a significant fog problem is not expected.
Tuesday....Another nice day is in store, albeit warmer and more humid than it has been since last Friday. The low-level onshore flow will become more prominent, and will result in increasing humidity. Some clouds will develop in the afternoon, but no rain is expected. For maximum temperatures, expect readings near the seasonal average for mid-late October with mid to upper 70s area wide. Our next storm system will continue moving off to the SE into the Rockies, there is also another player coming into range that will affect our weather later in the week. Hurricane Rick, currently off the coast of Baja California, will make landfall over Western Mexico on Wednesday, and get caught in typical SW flow out ahead of the approaching trough. The system is already getting sheared apart, and the high clouds from Rick will be moving from SW to NE over Mexico and towards our area over the next couple of days. More on Rick in the tropical section. Calm weather will continue for Tuesday night as the warming trend continues. Fog may be a bigger issue this period as ample moisture will have returned from the Gulf by this time.
Wednesday...Warm and humid conditions are on tap with Gulf moisture continuing to stream across the area. Clouds will continue to increase as the moisture from Rick is drawn towards the area, and the trough encroaches on the area. Most of the day should be dry as a cap remains on the atmosphere, but as the deeper moisture associated with Rick moves closer to our area late in the day, a few afternoon showers are possible. After morning lows in the 60s, afternoon highs will be near 80. Southerly winds will increase during the day with a tightening pressure gradient between weather systems. Rain chances increase on Wednesday night as the approaching front and remnants from Hurricane Rick work in tandem to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms across the area. Temperatures will be above normal for the period.
Thursday....Rain and thunderstorms are likely ahead of the front. Models are in good agreement that the front will move into and through the entire area during the day Thursday, and that the moisture from Rick will be entrained into this system. Heavy rain seems likely at times with the enhanced tropical moisture, but severe weather seems limited at this time with the best instability remaining displaced from our area. Average rainfall totals will vary, but 1-3" of rain is expected on Thursday. With an El Nino set up in place, an isolated severe thunderstorm or two is possible with damaging wind the main threat. I will fine tune this forecast as needed as we get closer to the event. The bottom line is that rain is likely on Thursday. Temperatures will be mild on Thursday with all the clouds and rain. Lows will be in the mid to upper 60s while highs reach the mid to upper 70s. The front will likely move through the forecast area during the afternoon and evening hours, pushing into the coastal waters after sunset Thursday. For overnight Thursday, a period of lingering rain and showers is expected as a post-frontal disturbance moves across the area as the cooler, stable air mass moves in. Since the post-frontal air mass will be more stable, only rain is expected, no thunderstorms at this time. It will turn cooler with an air mass very similar to the current one taking over in the wake of the front. Cooler overnight lows are forecast with rain likely on Thursday night. Expect minimums to drop into the mid to upper 50s.
Friday-Monday....The end of the forecast period including the upcoming weekend looks very good. On Friday, conditions will improve as the rain departs with the frontal boundary moving deep into the coastal waters, and high pressure over the Rockies begins to take control of the forecast. Friday will likely bring Decreasing Cloudiness with skies becoming Sunny during the day. Under a CAA pattern behind the aforementioned front, temperatures will struggle to reach the mid 60s. A refreshing offshore flow will be felt in earnest as well with a tight gradient between the exiting front, and the building ridge. It looks fantastic for all the football games this weekend. More fantastic fall weather prevails for the Friday night through Monday period with low humidity and pleasant days, clear and cool nights. Low temperatures in the 40s and 50s are expected once again across the forecast area once again, with the coolest weather likely coming on Friday and Saturday nights this go around, while afternoon highs will range from the upper 60s to mid 70s over the weekend through Monday. No rain is expected Friday through Monday, though if moisture lingers a bit longer than expected behind the departing front, a small chance may be needed for early Friday, but this is a solution that is not acknowledged at this time.
Tropics: The Atlantic basin is quiet, though there is a tropical wave in the Western Caribbean that has slight potential to develop in the coming days, but it would certainly not pose any threat to the Gulf coast or the U.S. for that matter. No tropical storm formation is expected through Wednesday.
In the Pacific, Rick, once a category 5 hurricane with 180 mph winds over the weekend, is weakening as it runs into a high-shear environment and cooler waters off the coast of Baja California. It will begin to feel the effects of a pronounced SW flow out ahead of an advancing trough over the Western U.S., and turn to the NE on Tuesday. It will give a glancing blow to Baja California on Tuesday, before making landfall over the mainland of Western Mexico Wednesday. When it does so, it will likely be a tropical depression or weak tropical storm. It will certainly be a much weaker entity than it once was over the weekend. At peak intensity, Rick was the 2nd strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane, only Linda in 1997 was more powerful. The remnants of Rick will intertwine with the advancing U.S. trough, and spread moisture across the Gulf coast at mid-week enhancing rainfall across that region.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 51/77 62/80 68/78 0 0 0 20 60 80
LFT 50/78 60/81 67/78 0 0 0 20 50 80
BPT 55/79 64/81 70/79 0 0 0 30 60 80
AEX 45/77 55/78 61/74 0 0 0 30 60 80
POE 46/77 56/78 62/74 0 0 0 30 60 80
ARA 50/78 61/80 70/78 0 0 0 20 50 80
Tonight...Clear and Not as Cool. Low 51. Light SE wind.
Tuesday...Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy. High 77. SE wind 10-15 mph.
Tuesday Night...Partly Cloudy with Patchy Fog after midnight. Warmer. Low 62. Light SE wind.
Wednesday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Warmer and Humid. High 80. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Wednesday Night...Cloudy with Showers and Thunderstorms becoming Likely. Low 68. SSE wind 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
Thursday...Cloudy with Showers and Thunderstorms Likely. A few severe storms possible and Heavy Rainfall Likely at Times. 2-3" of rain expected. High 78. SSW wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 80%.
7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity
Tuesday
10-20-09
Low: 51
High: 77
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 10-15
Wednesday
10-21-09
Low: 62
High: 80
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Thursday
10-22-09
Low: 68
High: 78
Rain: 80%
Wind: SSW 15-20
Friday
10-23-09
Low: 57
High: 67
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 15-20
Saturday
10-24-09
Low: 51
High: 69
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10-15
Sunday
10-25-09
Low: 47
High: 74
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
Monday
10-26-09
Low: 50
High: 77
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday Night...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Wednesday Night...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening...then showers and thunderstorms likely after midnight.
Thursday...Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
...Tide Data...
Tuesday Tides:
Low: 10:35a.m.
High: 1:32a.m. 6:12p.m.
...Lake Charles Climate Summary..
Monday, October 19, 2009
Low: 47
Normal Low: 57
Record Low: 37-1948
High: 72
Normal High: 80
Record High: 93-1910
Rainfall:
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 5.05"
Normal Month to Date: 2.50"
Year to Date: 52.03"
Normal Year to Date: 46.54"
Record: 1.46"
Sunrise Tuesday: 7:18a.m.
Sunset Tuesday: 6:36p.m.
Good night and God bless!
-DM-
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