SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The main rain event is just about to move into SW Louisiana. Thankfully, the threat for severe weather is very minimal at this time. The highest threat for severe weather will remain to the North of our area over North Louisiana and South Arkansas, but even it is to a lesser degree than earlier this afternoon. What a day for the Shreveport-Bossier City area as well other parts of the ARKLATEX with multiple tornadoes and serious flash flooding. I will have more on that in the coming days. The system has certainly taken its own sweet time moving into the forecast area with very little in the way of rain across the area today. Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming more widespread over the Western half of the forecast area, and this trend will continue overnight with the main squall line moving into SW Louisiana after midnight. The strong winds of earlier today has subsided a bit, but it will remain windy overnight with gusts over 20 mph at times. Unseasonably warm temperatures will remain in place until frontal passage. Temperatures are holding in the upper 70s at this hour, and won't drop much until the front passes, when they'll quickly fall into the 60s. The front has passed Houston, and its down to 60 over just to give you an idea. The heavy rain threat remains the big weather story, and the Flash Flood Watch remains in affect for all areas except Acadiana. 3-6" of rain is expected across SW Louisiana with locally higher amounts, while lesser amounts are expected across Acadiana roughly 2-4" for Lafayette and vicinity. Flash Flood Warnings will likely come later on tonight as the heavy rain begins to fall, and while I have stated that the severe weather threat is minimal, an isolated severe storm producing damaging wind or a tornado can't be completely ruled out with a great deal of instability still in place. Aside from the flash flooding threat from the heavy rain, a coastal flood threat continues into Friday as well. Strong Southerly winds have resulted in higher than normal astronomical tides, and caused tidal back up as well. Water levels will rise along the coast from Vermilion Bay in SW Louisiana through Jefferson County in SE Texas, and tides will run about 1-2' above normal ahead of the front. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for this reason. The coastal flood threat will end as the front passes, and winds shift from onshore to offshore. Once the flooding threats end, our attention will turn to a river flooding situation next week, but we'll examine that in future forecasts.
The flood threat will continue through the day Friday as rains continue for the entire area as a copious amount of instability remains in place with such a dynamic system moving across the country. The severe weather threat will end with frontal passage, but there could still be heavy rain at times behind the front. The front should move slowly East tonight reaching Beaumont shortly between midnight and 2.a.m., Lake Charles between 4a.m. and 6a.m., and Lafayette between 8a.m. and 10a.m. Friday. Overrunning rains will persist behind the front as the large supporting upper level low on the back side of the system remains to our NW, and a pocket of warm, moist air overrides the cooler air at the surface. It will be a raw day as well on Friday with temperatures falling into the 50s by late afternoon. After highs well up into the 80s on Thursday, it will be a sharp contrast in 24 hours. Morning temperatures will vary across the forecast area from near 60 across SE Texas and up towards Alexandria to near 70 around Lafayette and New Iberia. Strong CAA will take over behind the front, and temperatures will fall in response to this process. Rain will be widespread for the morning into the afternoon hours, before the rain begins to taper off as mid and upper level drying finally begins. Rain chances will be maintained into the Friday night period as I can't guarantee that all of the rain will be over with for High School Football, but I do expect that the majority of it will be with the exception of Acadiana. Intermittent light rain or drizzle will be possible for Friday night, but the widespread persistent steady rains will be over with at this time. Cool and windy conditions will occur as well under strong CAA. Expect low temperatures to fall into the mid to upper 40s by Saturday morning while gusty NNW winds continue at 15-20 mph decreasing to 10-15 mph overnight.
Beyond Friday, the forecast is shaping up very nice. Saturday will be cool and dry perhaps with some lingering clouds early, but for the most part a Sunny day is expected. Under a CAA regime, high temperatures will recover into the mid 60s. Halloween night offers a clear and chilly forecast with temperatures in the 50s for the evening and with the breeze it'll feel more like the upper 40s. Eventual overnight lows will be in the mid 40s. The Halloween forecast is a dry one, but no doubt it will be quite muddy with all of the rain from tonight and Friday. November starts on Sunday, and it will start on a nifty note with a large high pressure building in. Expect a Sunny day with highs in the upper 60s to around 70 after a pleasantly chilly start in the mid 40s, so it's going to feel great heading off to church.
A pattern shift is established across much of the contiguous United States in the wake of this sharp trough, and this will set up perfectly for us next week. High pressure will control the remainder of the forecast area Monday through Thursday with beautiful weather each day and seasonable temperatures. Cool mornings with lows ranging from the mid 40s to lower 50s are expected during this time, while afternoon highs extend from the upper 60s to mid 70s. No mention of rain is in the forecast beyond Friday night...how about that? It should be a much needed period to dry out. It is possible that we might make it through the entire week next week without a chance of rain...wouldn't that be something after the unbelievably wet pattern we've been in? Long range models indicate a couple of strong systems will affect us over the first half of November, but if and when is shear speculation at this point, and it's not a set forecast that's for sure, just a casual gander out beyond the scope of the forecast period. Stay tuned throughout the day for any severe weather and flood updates, but again I believe this will predominantly be a flood threat for SW Louisiana and SE Texas. I would urge you to have a plan of action, and to also have some way of being informed of the latest weather information whether it be contacting me, NOAA Weather Radio, local TV or radio, etc.
Tropics: Quiet.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 79/57 47/67 45/70 100 90 30 0 0 0
LFT 79/61 48/68 45/70 80 100 40 0 0 0
BPT 60/56 49/69 46/72 100 80 20 0 0 0
AEX 79/55 45/65 43/68 100 90 20 0 0 0
POE 70/55 46/66 44/69 100 90 20 0 0 0
ARA 79/62 49/69 47/71 80 100 40 0 0 0
*Flash Flood Watch in effect through Friday.*
*Coastal Flood Advisory in effect through Friday.*
Tonight...Cloudy & Windy with Showers & Thunderstorms Likely. Heavy rainfall expected with 2-4" of rain expected with isolated amounts up to 6". An isolated severe thunderstorm is possible with damaging wind and isolated tornadoes the main threat. Turning Cooler Late. Temperatures in the mid to upper 70s early, falling to near 60 behind the front in the early morning hours. SSE wind 15-20 mph and gusty, becoming NNW at 15-20 mph and gusty towards sunrise.
Friday...Cloudy, Windy, and Much Cooler with Rain & Thunderstorms Likely. Heavy rainfall at times. 1-2" of additional rain expected. Temperatures falling into the upper 50s in the afternoon. Rain tapering off to intermittent light rain or drizzle late. NNW wind 15-20 mph and gusty, decreasing to 10-15 mph late. Chance of rain 90. Total rainfall amounts from tonight through Friday afternoon 3-6" with higher amounts up to 8".
Friday Night...Cloudy, and Windy and Cool with a 30% chance of light rain or drizzle early. Decreasing Cloudiness overnight becoming Clear toward morning. Low 47. NNW wind 10-15 mph.
Saturday...Sunny. High 67. NNW wind 10-15 mph.
Saturday Night...Clear and Cool. Low 45. Light NNW wind.
Sunday...Sunny. High 70. North wind 5-10 mph.
7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity
Friday
10-30-09
Low: 57 (Falling throughout the day)
High: 79 (Midnight)
Rain: 90%
Wind: NNW 15-20
Saturday
10-31-09
Halloween
Low: 47
High: 67
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
Sunday
11-1-09
All Saint's Day
Daylight Savings Time Ends...Fall Back
Low: 45
High: 70
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
Monday
11-2-09
Low: 46
High: 71
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
Tuesday
11-3-09
Low: 48
High: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
Wednesday
11-4-09
Low: 51
High: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
Thursday
11-5-09
Low: 54
High: 75
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 5-10
...Marine...
*Coastal Flood Advisory in effect through Friday.*
*Small Craft Advisory in effect.*
Synopsis...A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE WESTERN COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HIGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...ACTUAL TIDES WILL BE RUNNING FROM 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE THE PREDICTED LUNAR TIDES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE.
Tonight...South winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Showers and thunderstorms.
Friday...West winds 20 to 30 knots becoming north in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 8 feet subsiding to 5 to 7 feet in the afternoon. Rain and isolated thunderstorms.
Friday Night...North winds 15 to 25 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 3 to 4 feet after midnight. A chance of rain and isolated thunderstorms.
Saturday...North winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the afternoon.
Saturday Night...North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
...Tide Data...
Friday Tides:
Low: 7:31a.m. 7:38p.m.
High: 12:09a.m. 1:19p.m.
....Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Thursday, October, 29, 2009
Low: 73
Normal Low: 54
Record Low: 33-1910
High: 83
Normal High: 76
Record High: 89-1915
Rainfall:
Today: Trace
Month to Date: 12.65"
Normal Month to Date: 3.68"
Year to Date: 59.63"
Normal Year to Date: 47.72"
Record: 5.70"-1918
Sunrise Friday: 7:26a.m.
Sunset Friday: 6:27p.m.
Happy Halloween!
Good night and God bless!
-DM-
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