Before I carry on with the discussion, I just want to comment briefly on what has been an awful weather day week across much of the South. Wednesday April 27, 2011 may turn out to be one of the most monumental weather days in history. There were over 100 reports of tornadoes just on Wednesday with many of them causing major to catastrophic damage, and many injuries and fatalities. This is not to mention the numerous tornadoes that occurred Monday and Tuesday as well. This is all part of the same storm system which has been moving only slowly Eastward for the last several days. This is an event that will be talked about for years, and even though the weather it has caused is totally unforgettable it will be remembered for a long time. We are counting our blessings that we got off relatively unscathed around here with only minor damage from the round of storms Tuesday morning, and no additional storms occurred Wednesday morning in advance of the strong storm system causing all of this terrible weather. The reports will be trickling in for days. The worst of the damage has been in the states of Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. Arkansas, parts of Texas, and Oklahoma were hit hard in previous days. Tuesday night, tornadoes and very large hail hit parts of North Louisiana very hard as well. The cities of Meridian, MS, Huntsville, Tuscaloosa, & Birmingham, AL all received direct hits from tornadoes Wednesday each inflicting major to catastrophic damage. The storm system is finally decaying as it moves off the East Coast tonight. The shear dynamics of this system, is unlike any I can recall in my lifetime. The stories are sad, but the saddest news of all is that there has been nearly 300 confirmed deaths so far, and I fear that the death toll will continue to rise in the coming days since damage assessment and cleanup is still in the early stages. Prayers & thoughts go out to everyone affected by this week's storms, and I will have more information about this outbreak in the coming days as more information is made available. Now onto the forecast...
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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...What a beautiful late Spring day it was on this Thursday. Deep blue clear skies with nothing but sunshine was the name of the game today thanks to a controlling area of surface high pressure which built in behind Wednesday's cold front. It was a very pleasant day with respect to temperatures. Morning lows were actually in the below normal category, believe it or not, after highs in the lower 90s on Wednesday. We started out this morning with readings in the refreshing 50s across the area. It was pleasant in the afternoon hours with very low humidity. Afternoon highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s were commonplace across the threshold of this forecast area. High pressure remains firmly entrenched tonight, and conditions are primed for radiational cooling. Skies remain crystal clear and light surface winds are present. This should lead to another night of below normal temperatures with readings dipping down close to 50, and the coldest locations may actually see some upper 40s believe it or not. Either way, it will a very pleasant & refreshing start to the day on Friday with plenty of sunshine expected throughout the day. It will be a bit warmer in the afternoon thanks to a strong April sun, and also to the return of the return flow of Gulf air in the afternoon. Humidity will remain low, but it will be higher than it was on Thursday. Odds are though you won't notice much of a difference during the day Friday with the overall superb conditions prevailing. Afternoon highs should be in the low to mid 80s. The anchored high pressure will push Eastward as the day wears on. It will be a beautiful evening to head out to Contraband Days.
The weather turns around again for the weekend. The onshore develops and strengthens Friday afternoon, and only becomes more pronounced this weekend. The next in the seemingly endless train of Pacific storm systems will also be advancing across the country as well. Saturday should be a dry day, but we will certainly have a mix of sun & clouds with humidity values steadily increasing. It will quickly be much more noticeably warm & humid with morning lows back into the 60s after a couple of refreshing mornings. A low cloud deck will form overnight Friday into Saturday as a result of the return flow. The low clouds will scour out a bit as daytime heating takes effect during the day, and the end result will be Partly Cloudy skies. Afternoon highs will also trend above normalcy once again. Look for readings to easily reach the mid 80s, but some locations may reach the upper 80s. Winds will increase once again as well associated with the usual pressure differences. Moisture levels increase even further for Sunday. This next Pacific storm will nudge closer to the forecast area, and as a result stronger winds are expected. Unseasonable warmth will prevail as well. There should be enough sunshine Sunday for temperatures to approach the 90 degree mark yet again, and this will come after morning lows closer to 70. I expect rain free conditions as mid and upper level ridging should hold firm despite moisture pooling ahead of this next cold front.
Rain chances will return to the forecast in the Sunday night/Monday time frame. This is when the next Pacific storm and its associated cold front will arrive in SW Louisiana. We are getting into the time of year now where cold fronts will have a hard time pushing through, however, it currently looks like this one will have no trouble, but models do indicate it will be losing its upper level support, thus it may slow down considerably as it enters the forecast area. The mid and upper level ridging will begin to break down as this latest trough pushes down into the region starting Sunday night, thus rain chances return as some scattered showers & thunderstorms are expected to develop in the pre-frontal environment. The best opportunity for rainfall over the course of the next 7 days will come on Monday ahead of the front itself. The cap will continue to erode, and lifting and convergence shall increase. It should be noted here that the best dynamics and main thrust of the energy with this system will more than likely bypass our region to North, but this system doesn't look to have near the dynamics its predecessor did. A decent chance for showers & thunderstorms is expected for Monday with the front itself. It will be very warm & humid in the pre-frontal environment. Temperatures will be running above the early May normals. Lows will only be in the low to mid 70s, while afternoon highs crack the 80 degree again. The cold front should push through the morning hours to around noon on Monday as it stands right now. Some strong storms are possible, and I certainly wouldn't rule out some severe weather since it is within the time of year that is climatologically favorable for it. Rainfall totals will leave a lot to be desired it would appear with totals generally around an inch or less. Drier & cooler air filters into the region behind said cold front.
The models all suggest the front will pass through on Monday, but if it slows down as some models suggest then it may not make it all the way through the area until Monday evening. For now, I will go with the idea of the front arriving before noon in the Lake Charles area. The front may stall out in the coastal waters late Monday into Tuesday. If this scenario pans out, then there will likely be some degree of overrunning in the post-frontal environs with cooler temps, overcast conditions, and some spotty showers on Tuesday. Given the time of year, and the usual tendencies of fronts in our area this time of year, I will latch onto this idea. Therefore, the clouds will hang around behind the front Monday and linger through Tuesday reflecting smallish rain chances as well. Certainly, the highest chance for rain will come in advance of the front Monday. Temperatures will be significantly cooler in the wake of this front in response to a sharpening trough over the Eastern 2/3 of the U.S. Morning lows for Tuesday will fall back into the mid to upper 50s, while afternoon highs under overcast conditions only make it to the low to mid 70s across the area. A stiff offshore will be present as well given the pressure anomalies that always ensue when an advancing trough.
High pressure pushes down into the area to close out this forecast period, therefore, some awesome weather is anticipated for Wednesday & Thursday. Plenty of sunshine is expected with pleasant late Spring temperatures in place. Expect morning lows to be well down in the 50s both Wednesday and Thursday mornings while afternoon highs reach the mid 70s for Wednesday, and near 80 on Thursday. Humidity values should be incredibly low each day thanks to offshore winds and super dry air in place in the wake of Monday's front. These will be some of the last comfortable days we have before the onset of our long, hot, miserable summer ensues. High pressure will be firmly anchored across the area at mid-week, and begin to push Eastward on Thursday. This is when we will see the commencement of the usual return flow. We will be on the edge of surface high pressure as the day draws to a close Thursday with humidity on the rise yet again. However, at this time it doesn't appear that it will feel that much more humid really. A steady state warming trend & humidifying trend is to be expected beyond that point. It looks like we will be dry for the remainder of Contraband Days once we get Monday's front out of the way. We still desperately need the rain, so hopefully we will catch up some on Monday without dealing with any severe weather. The warm up that occurs at the end of next week could possibly lead us into the early stages of our long summer with no real sign of any more significant cold fronts in the offing. We are on track to reach the 90 degree mark on a consistent basis by the second half of May.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 51/83 63/86 72/88 0 0 0 0 0 0
CAM 57/77 66/80 75/82 0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 52/83 62/87 71/88 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 55/80 63/85 72/86 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 53/84 65/88 74/90 0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 48/82 57/88 65/90 0 0 0 0 0 0
POE 48/82 58/89 66/90 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tonight...Clear & Cool. Low 51. Light NE wind.
Friday...Sunny. High 83. East wind 5-10 mph in the morning, becoming SE around 10 mph in the afternoon.
Friday Night...Clear & Warmer. Low 63. Light SE wind.
Saturday...Partly Cloudy. High 86. SSE wind 15-20 mph & gusty.
Saturday Night...Partly Cloudy. Low 71. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Sunday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy, Warm, & Windy. High 88. SSE wind 15-25 mph & gusty.
Sunday Night...Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers & thunderstorms. Low 72. South wind 10-15 mph.
Monday...Mostly Cloudy with a 40% chance of showers & thunderstorms. High 82. SSW wind 15-20 mph and gusty, becoming NNW at 20-25 mph and gusty.
Friday 4/29/11 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear & Refreshing
Temp: 51
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 2
9a.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 62
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 4
Noon
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 74
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 5
3p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 83
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 8
6p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 77
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 7
9p.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 71
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 5
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Friday
4-29-11
Low: 51
High: 83
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE/SE 5-10
Saturday
4-30-11
Low: 63
High: 86
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Sunday
5-1-11
Low: 71
High: 88
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 15-25
Monday
5-3-11
Low: 72
High: 82
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSE/NNW 15-25
Tuesday
5-3-11
Low: 56
High: 73
Rain: 20%
Wind: NNW 15-20
Wednesday
5-4-11
Low: 52
High: 75
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
Thursday
5-5-11
Low: 53
High: 78
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Friday...East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Friday Night...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 3 feet building to 4 feet after midnight.
Saturday...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 feet.
Saturday Night...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 feet.
Sunday...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 4 feet subsiding to 3 feet in the afternoon.
Sunday Night...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Monday...South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest in the afternoon. Seas 3 feet subsiding to 2 feet in the afternoon. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
...Tide Data...
Friday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:
Low: 7:54a.m. 8:00p.m.
High: 1:47p.m. 1:15p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
164.22'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Thursday, April 28, 2011
Low: 55
Normal Low: 60
Record Low: 40-1920
High: 80
Normal High: 80
Record High: 95-1987
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 1.84"
Normal Month to Date: 3.34"
Year to Date: 14.08"
Normal Year to Date: 15.68"
Record: 7.65"- 1914
Significant Weather Observed:
None
One Year Ago (2010)
Low: 51
High: 81
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2006)
Low: 61
High: 82
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2001)
Low: 58
High: 83
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Friday: 6:32a.m.
Sunset Friday: 7:49p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:02a.m.-8:19p.m.
...Lunar Table...
New Moon- Tuesday May 3
First Quarter- Tuesday May 10
Full Moon- Tuesday May 17
Last Quarter- Tuesday May 24
Have a great Friday & God Bless!
-DM-
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