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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The advertised weakening tail end of a cold front moved through today as scheduled. Unfortunately, for our drought stricken area, we missed out on any significant rainfall. This was also expected. However, a few locations did experience a brief shower or thunderstorm, but amounts left a lot to be desired with total amounts 1/10" or less. A much drier and cooler air mass is filtering in tonight, and dew points are dropping off rapidly. It was unseasonably warm once again today ahead of the front with readings reaching the mid 80s for daily maximums. This came after morning lows in the low to mid 70s yet again, however, with the cooler air now filtering today's official low will come at midnight. All pre-frontal cloudiness & shower activity has pushed well East of the region, and high pressure is building in. Skies are now clear across the forecast area with a refreshing Northerly breeze in place. It will be much cooler by sunrise Tuesday with lows well down into the 50s. It will feel a bit cooler than that with the breeze, and given the fact that it has been so warm lately.
Rather uneventful weather is on tap for Tuesday & Wednesday. Abundant sunshine is expected with high pressure firmly in control. Temperatures will be warm, but it will be termed as pleasantly warm because of the much lower humidity making the air feel comfortable. Weak CAA will cease during the day Tuesday as winds slacken. Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s across the area on Tuesday. A cool night is expected once again with readings as cool as the lower 50s along I-10, with some mid to upper 40s in the coldest locations. Clear skies will remain in place with light surface winds. This is ideal for radiational cooling, and that's exactly what we'll have. Another day of abundant sunshine is on tap for Wednesday. Afternoon highs will be similar with readings topping out around 80 or so. Winds will turn around as the day wears on with high pressure sliding Eastward. The return flow commences in the afternoon. Only a subtle increase in humidity will occur at that time, and you likely won't notice that the atmosphere will be moistening up just yet. That will change Wednesday night as the low-level return flow kicks into high gear.
Deep tropical moisture will loom just offshore as the previous front washes out, and the onshore flow will quickly translate this air back over the forecast area Wednesday night. No sensible weather is expected with only an increase in clouds noted, and much warmer temperatures expected. The refreshing mornings of Tuesday and Wednesday will be replaced by much more humid air and unseasonable warmth with morning lows in the low to mid 60s. This return flow will be in response to another in a continuing series of Pacific storms that will be moving across the country. Morning low clouds are expected for Thursday before we see a decrease in those by mid-late morning due to atmospheric mixing. That will leave us with Partly to Mostly Cloudy skies. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s Thursday as the return flow stiffens over the area. Rain chances will return to the forecast late in the day Thursday as essentially the same set up that was present on Monday establishes itself yet again. It is looking more and more likely like the main thrust of this next system will safely bypass our area leaving only the trailing cold front to push through. As moisture increases, and the mid and upper level cap is interrupted some scattered showers & storms should develop ahead of the front Thursday evening and Thursday night. It might be a long night for areas to our North with another severe weather outbreak expected.
The front crosses the area Friday morning, and the slight chance of showers & possibly a thunderstorm will remain. No severe weather is expected, and unfortunately no widespread rainfall event is expected either. It will remain warm & humid until frontal passage occurs Friday. The front should push offshore by noon on Friday with much drier & cooler air filtering in. Skies will clear out as the day progresses Friday with high pressure nosing in from the Rockies behind the boundary. Any moisture from any rainfall will quickly evaporate as the evaporation rate increases with increasing sunshine, gusty winds, and decreasing humidity expected Friday afternoon. Therefore, once again this front will leave a lot to be desired as far as beneficial rainfall is concerned. The good news is this will set the stage for what promises to be a superb Spring weekend. The air mass behind this second front should be similar to the current one, meaning we should easily radiate down into the 50s again heading into Saturday morning. A clear, beautiful sky is expected to start the weekend. High pressure dominates the forecast this Palm Sunday weekend. Expect Saturday's highs to fall short of the 80 degree mark. Seasonal to slightly below seasonal norms are expected for highs while lows trend several degrees below the benchmark normals for mid-April. Offshore winds will keep a refreshing Spring air mass over us into Sunday before we see the usual routine occur yet again. Sunday morning will be clear & beautiful with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Tons of sunshine is expected once again on Sunday, but there might be a few clouds back in the picture by Sunday afternoon in response to the return flow commencing yet again as surface high pressure nudges East of the Mississippi. Highs will be at or below 80 yet again with the marine influence suppressing a significant warm up.
We make it through Palm Sunday weekend on a quiet & clear note, but as we head into next week, yet another Pacific storm will be hanging in the balance. Low level moisture increases in earnest Sunday night into Monday, and a few showers can't be ruled out as warm air surges Northward Sunday night. Certainly a marked increase in clouds and humidity will be noted. Low temperatures will climb back into the low to mid 60s heading into Monday morning. Winds will increase as well thanks to increasing pressure differences generated by the advancement of the next Spring storm. At this time, models suggest a better opportunity for rain & storms on Monday ahead of a cold front. This system will have the potential to produce severe weather further South it would appear, but it is too early to determine if that will include the NW Gulf Coast or not. Model data does suggest better dynamics and energy across our part of the world, but being 7 days out this is still suspect at this time. The forecast does reflect our next opportunity for rain at this time, and will mention some thunderstorms. It is also way too early to get too specific about expected rainfall amounts & how much cool air will move in behind this front. There is a possibility that this front will slow down as it moves into the forecast area, and it may not push entirely through the forecast area until next Tuesday. That would keep rain chances going for a longer duration, so we'll have to see. The period of unseasonably warm & humid weather will stick with us until the next front slides on by. This is also highlighted at the end of the forecast period. A very flat (zonal) flow should be in place at that time, and much of the upper level support to force fronts through the area my collapse suggesting the front will hang around for a few days. Long range models hint at an unsettled pattern leading up to the all important day of Easter, but that's still beyond the time frame when there is enough skill to decipher any set pattern.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 53/78 51/80 62/81 0 0 0 0 0 20
CAM 57/80 55/75 66/75 0 0 0 0 0 20
LFT 53/79 50/81 61/82 0 0 0 0 0 20
ARA 54/79 50/80 63/78 0 0 0 0 0 20
BPT 52/80 53/82 64/82 0 0 0 0 0 20
AEX 49/76 47/82 58/83 0 0 0 0 0 20
POE 50/77 48/82 59/83 0 0 0 0 0 20
Tonight...Clear & Cooler. Low 53. NNW wind 10-15 mph.
Tuesday...Sunny. High 78. North wind 5-10 mph.
Tuesday Night...Clear & Cool. Low 51. NE wind 5 mph or less.
Wednesday...Sunny. High 80. East wind becoming SE 5-10 mph.
Wednesday Night...Partly Cloudy & Much Warmer. Low 62. SSE wind 10 mph.
Thursday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy w/ a 20% chance of showers & thunderstorms late in the day. High 81. SSE wind 15-20 mph & gusty.
Tuesday 4/12/11 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 54
Rain: 0%
Wind: NW 8
9a.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 64
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 7
Noon
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 72
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 6
3p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 78
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5
6p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNE 4
9p.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 65
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 2
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Tuesday
4-12-11
Low: 53
High: 78
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
Wednesday
4-13-11
Low: 51
High: 80
Rain: 0%
Wind: E//SE 5-10
Thursday
4-14-11
Low: 62
High: 81
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Friday
4-15-11
Low: 65
High: 77
Rain: 20% AM
Wind: SSW/NNW 15-25
Saturday
4-16-11
Low: 52
High: 75
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
Sunday
4-17-11
Palm Sunday
Low: 50
High: 78
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE/SE 10
Monday
4-18-11
Low: 61
High: 79
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 15-25
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday...North winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night...East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday...East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday Night...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 feet.
Thursday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 feet. Isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
...Tide Data...
Tuesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:
Low: 4:04a.m. 5:49p.m.
High: 12:08a.m. 9:31p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
164.43'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Monday, April 11, 2011
Low: 71
Normal Low: 56
Record Low: 30-1913
High: 83
Normal High: 76
Record High: 87-1927
Rainfall
Today: 0.01"
Month to Date: 0.03"
Normal Month to Date: 1.21"
Year to Date: 12.27"
Normal Year to Date: 13.55"
Record: 1.74"- 1957
Significant Weather Observed:
Light Rain
Fog
One Year Ago (2010)
Low: 52
High: 81
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2006)
Low: 55
High: 80
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2001)
Low: 72
High: 81
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Tuesday: 6:50a.m.
Sunset Tuesday: 7:38p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:20a.m.-8:08p.m.
...Lunar Table...
First Quarter- Tonight April 11
Full Moon- Monday April 18
Last Quarter- Monday April 25
New Moon- Monday May 2
Have a great Tuesday! God Bless!
-DM
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