Click below for the latest edition of the video blog. Be sure to scroll down for the complete text form of the blog.
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...We were lucky today! We had our day last week I guess with the hail storms, but on a day when it looked like we might experience even worse weather, all in all, we came out unscathed. Only a few sporadic reports of severe weather occurred mainly across NE portions of the forecast area. Total rainfall amounts were also limited due to the fast moving nature of the shower & thunderstorm activity. Rainfall amounts were generally less than 1" across the area, with higher amounts further North of the I-10 corridor. The cold front has pushed through, and conditions are improving in a hurry. It was warm & muggy until the frontal passage occurred between 3 and 4p.m. at Lake Charles. Temperatures easily reached the lower 80s, and that came after morning lows in the mid 70s. However, the low for today will occur just before midnight as temperatures are now falling. This trend of falling temperatures will continue until sunrise Tuesday. By then, it will be quite cool with readings generally in the lower to middle 40s across the area. The coldest locations will likely drop into the upper 30s. Skies will quickly clear overnight as high pressure works in behind the departing system. Expect clear skies to encompass the entire area by or shortly after midnight. It will be clear much sooner than that here in the Lake Charles area. The winds were quite gusty from the South ahead of the front, and tonight in the wake of the front the same condition will be in place except that the direction will be different with a stiff offshore flow expected. Winds will slowly subside through the night as high pressure builds in closer to the area.
Quiet weather is expected for Tuesday & Wednesday. Conditions will be more definitive of Spring with high pressure in control. There will be plenty of sunshine and low humidity each day. It will start off on the cool side both mornings with readings in the 40s. It will feel a little colder than that Tuesday morning because of the North wind in the 10-15 mph range. CAA will weaken during the day Tuesday, and the dry & cooler air mass will begin to modify. Expect afternoon highs to fall short of 70 degrees for Tuesday as the cool Northerly flow continues. Humidity values will be in the 20% range. Expect temperatures to fall into the low to mid 40s once again Tuesday night with continued clear conditions. Cool & clear is the word for Wednesday morning with high pressure in control over the NW Gulf Coast. The high will wander Eastward during the day Wednesday, thus a return flow of Gulf air will commence in the afternoon. It will be rather subtle at first, and any increase in humidity should be rather inconsequential for Wednesday afternoon. Air mass modification typically occurs a lot faster this time of year, and that will certainly be the case this time around as highs on Wednesday creep back above 70. It will remain very comfortable with the wall to wall sunshine in place.
Benign weather is on tap from Thursday into the weekend. The main storm track will shift back further to our North, meaning no sensible weather is expected around here. We will quickly transition back from the below normal period to above normal as the onshore flow intensifies. There should still be a good deal of sunshine Thursday and Friday, but some clouds will be present as well. Morning lows will warm from the low to mid 40s from Wednesday into the upper 50s to lower 60s for Thursday. I can't rule out some late night/early morning patchy fog and/or low cloudiness. All of that should dissipate by 10a.m. leaving us with just a general mix of sun and clouds for both Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will continue to increase each day. Afternoon highs will quickly return to near the 80 degree mark by Thursday. The controlling surface high pressure will reside in the SE U.S., and at the same time we will see a strengthening and mid and upper level ridge across this area. The combination of being on the Western flank of the surface high, and the strengthening cap will keep rain chances absent from the forecast. Shorts will likely be necessary by Friday as the air mass modification continues. Morning lows should reach the low to mid 60s while afternoon highs surpass 80, and wind up in the lower 80s or so. Offshore breezes will keep it from feeling uncomfortable.
That brings us to the upcoming weekend...don't look for much change in the overall pattern at least for Saturday. We will back into the pattern of persistence with generally Partly to Mostly Cloudy skies, warm, humid, & breezy conditions. Mid and upper level ridging will continue to persist. The main Jet Stream will remain safely away from this area, keeping our weather rather uneventful. Model data suggests we could warm up into the middle 80s, making this the warmest weather so far this season. Morning lows will continue their uptick, reaching the mid to upper 60s. Sunday may offer a few more changes, but overall a benign weather regime shall continue. We might see a few showers late Sunday as a weak cold front approaches the NW Gulf Coast. This front looks rather weak, and will more than likely lose much of its luster as it approaches. The same weather should be in place for most of the day with a mix of sun & clouds and unseasonable warmth. Mid 80s are possible yet again with morning lows almost more representative of summer (near 70). The feeble front flounders into the area Sunday night-Monday, and at that time a small chance of rain (mostly showers) is expected. Models suggest the same mid and upper level cap should hold firm, and that will suppress much of the rainfall possibilities. The front clears the area overnight Sunday into Monday, and only slightly cooler air will move in for Monday. High pressure builds in to keep the quiet regime going. Temperatures should remain above normal with lows only cooling to near 60 while highs manage to stay in the 80s until further notice. It should be noticeably drier at that time, so it will feel pretty pleasant at the end of the forecast period. Models suggest more opportunities for stronger cold fronts and severe weather events through the middle of the month.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 42/67 43/74 59/80 10 0 0 0 0 0
CAM 47/70 48/71 63/76 10 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 44/68 43/75 58/81 20 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 46/69 44/75 60/79 20 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 43/70 45/77 62/81 10 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 38/65 40/72 54/82 10 0 0 0 0 0
POE 38/65 40/72 55/82 10 0 0 0 0 0
Tonight...Clearing, Windy, & Much Cooler. Low 42. NNW wind 15-20 mph and gusty, becoming 10-15 mph after midnight.
Tuesday...Sunny. High 67. North wind 10 mph.
Tuesday Night...Clear & Cool. Low 43. Light NE wind.
Wednesday...Sunny. High 74. East wind 5-10 mph.
Wednesday Night...Clear & Warmer. Low 59. SE wind 5-10 mph.
Thursday...Partly Cloudy & More Humid. High 80. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Tuesday 4/5/11 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 43
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 12
9a.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 53
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
Noon
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 61
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 8
3p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 67
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5
6p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 63
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 3
9p.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 54
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 3
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Tuesday
4-5-11
Low: 42
High: 67
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
Wednesday
4-6-11
Low: 43
High: 74
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 5-10
Thursday
4-7-11
Low: 59
High: 80
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Friday
4-8-11
Low: 66
High: 84
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Saturday
4-9-11
Low: 70
High: 85
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Sunday
4-9-11
Low: 71
High: 84
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Monday
4-11-11
Low: 63
High: 80
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSW/NNW 15-20
...Marine Forecast...
*Gale Warning in effect until 1a.m. Tuesday.*
*Small Craft Advisory in effect from 1a.m. until 11a.m. Tuesday.*
Tonight...Northwest winds 20 to 30 knots becoming north 25 to 35 knots in the evening...then decreasing to 20 to 30 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet after midnight. Showers and thunderstorms likely early in the evening.
Tuesday...Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night...East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday Night...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 4 feet after midnight.
Thursday...South winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet in the afternoon.
...Tide Data...
Tuesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:
Low: 10:35a.m. 10:25p.m.
High: 4:50a.m. 3:04p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
164.28'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Monday, April 4, 2011
Low: 52*
Normal Low: 55
Record Low: 35-1915
High: 82
Normal High: 75
Record High: 87-1914
Rainfall
Today: 0.22"*
Month to Date: 0.22"*
Normal Month to Date: 0.44"
Year to Date: 12.24"
Normal Year to Date: 12.78"
Record: 2.01"- 1952
Significant Weather Observed:
Rain
Thunderstorm
Fog
One Year Ago (2010)
Low: 66
High: 81
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2006)
Low: 64
High: 82
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2001)
Low: 71
High: 83
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Tuesday: 6:58a.m.
Sunset Tuesday: 7:34p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:28a.m.-8:04p.m.
...Lunar Table...
First Quarter- Monday April 11
Full Moon- Monday April 18
Last Quarter- Monday April 25
New Moon- Tuesday May 2
Have a great Tuesday! God Bless!
-DM
No comments:
Post a Comment