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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...It was another beautiful day on this Wednesday, however, some subtle changes began taking place. Did you notice the increasing humidity? Did you notice the onshore flow? It was still a beautiful day despite some cumulus clouds in the afternoon hours. It was a cool start to the day with readings in the 40s once again as expected. Afternoon highs were warmer than we saw on Tuesday, but it was still on the pleasant side with highs generally in the mid 70s. The humidity values did increase in response to the return of the onshore flow. The controlling surface high has moved East, and the onshore flow persists tonight. This will cause conditions to be much warmer with overnight lows only around 60. Sky conditions will be between clear and partly cloudy with no mention of rain. Some patchy late night/early morning fog and/or low clouds can't be ruled out with the strengthening return flow. The weather will remain on the quiet side for Thursday with just a cloud & sun mix expected along with mild temperatures. Highs will be back into the upper 70s to lower 80s. As was the case on Wednesday, a steady South wind will be present with gusts over 20 mph at times. This will keep it feeling good on the outside.
You will want to break out the shorts for the period of Friday-Sunday. The warming trend continues in earnest. The same synoptic conditions will be in place for Friday and Saturday. Mid and upper level ridging will sequester any opportunity for rain despite the continued long fetch Southerly flow around the Western periphery of the surface high. Morning lows will nudge up towards the 70 degree mark, while afternoon highs easily reach the mid 80s, with many locations North of I-10 reaching the upper 80s, believe it or not. A strong storm system will be migrating from W to E across the country at this same time, and by Sunday it will be close enough to affect the area. However, it still appears that the main thrust of this system will bypass the area to the North. Deep tropical air will be in place, and as the associated trailing cold front moves towards the area, the upper level cap will weaken as the front creates a lifting and focus mechanism. Skies will generally be Partly to Mostly Cloudy during the day Sunday with continued warmth & windy conditions. High temperatures will be in the mid 80s or so. Rain chances enter the equation Sunday afternoon, and more so for Sunday night as the weakening cold front moves into the forecast area. However, with the main energy and dynamics remaining well away from this area, no major rain event or severe weather is expected. Only scattered shower activity and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm is expected mainly for Sunday night. I can't rule out a shower or two Sunday afternoon after 3p.m. or so. The very warm & humid conditions will persist until frontal passage. A severe weather outbreak will likely unfold to our North & East where the better dynamics exist.
The front clears the area Monday morning, and some lingering showers are possible into Monday morning. The front will be in a weakening state as it pushes through the forecast area and into the Gulf of Mexico Monday morning. It will become diffuse before eventually washing out over the offshore waters. Drier air will filter in behind the front Monday, but the air mass won't really be all that much cooler. Skies will clear during the day Monday after the lingering chance for showers in the morning. The day will begin somewhat cooler with lows closer to 60 as opposed to near 70. Afternoon highs will still be close to the 80 degree mark. A wind shift will be noted as well with the front. Expect surface winds to shift from onshore to offshore in the wake of the front. Humidity values will fall into the comfortable range Monday afternoon, so it will definitely feel much better outside at that time. High pressure quickly builds in for Monday afternoon through Tuesday, and great weather is expected with plenty of sunshine. Temperatures will not be any cooler than the normal values for mid April with morning lows in the mid to upper 50s Tuesday while afternoon highs still climb into the lower 80s with plenty of sunshine. A very quick turnaround is expected towards the middle of next week. The return flow commences as early as Tuesday, and another Pacific storm system will fast be approaching the mid-section of the country by Wednesday. This will bring rain chances back into the equation Wednesday with warm & muggy weather in place. This mid-week system has the potential to be a severe weather maker for us if it takes the Southern track. It is still up in the air as to whether or not this will occur, but there is certainly the possibility based on model representation at this juncture. This certainly bears watching over the next several days.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 61/81 68/85 70/86 0 0 0 0 0 0
CAM 68/76 72/80 73/80 0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 60/82 68/86 71/87 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 62/80 70/84 70/85 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 63/83 71/86 71/88 0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 58/82 65/86 69/88 0 0 0 0 0 0
POE 58/82 66/86 69/88 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tonight...Clear. Low 61. Light SE wind.
Thursday...Partly Cloudy. High 81. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Thursday Night...Partly to Mostly Cloudy. Low 68. SSE wind 5-10 mph.
Friday...Partly Cloudy & Warm. High 85. SSW wind 15-20 mph & gusty.
Friday Night...Partly to Mostly Cloudy. Low 70. South wind 5-10 mph.
Saturday...Partly Cloudy & Warm. High 86. SSW wind 15-20 mph & gusty.
Thursday 4/7/11 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 61
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 3
9a.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 68
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 11
Noon
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 75
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 13
3p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 81
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 15
6p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 77
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 12
9p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 72
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 4
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Thursday
4-7-11
Low: 61
High: 81
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Friday
4-8-11
Low: 68
High: 85
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW 15-20
Saturday
4-9-11
Low: 70
High: 86
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW 15-20
Sunday
4-10-11
Low: 71
High: 83
Rain: 20% PM...30% Night
Wind: S 20-25
Monday
4-11-11
Low: 62
High: 80
Rain: 20% A.M.
Wind: SSW/NNW 15-20
Tuesday
4-12-11
Low: 55
High: 82
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE/SE 10-15
Wednesday
4-13-11
Low: 62
High: 78
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 15-20
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 feet.
Thursday...South winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Thursday Night...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.
Friday...South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the afternoon.
Friday Night...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet after midnight.
Saturday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet building to 5 to 6 feet in the afternoon.
...Tide Data...
Thursday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:
Low: 11:36a.m.
High: 7:17a.m. 3:39p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
164.38'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Wednesday, April 6, 2011
Low: 47
Normal Low: 55
Record Low: 37-1913
High: 74
Normal High: 75
Record High: 90-1914
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 0.02"
Normal Month to Date: 0.66"
Year to Date: 12.26"
Normal Year to Date: 13.00"
Record: 1.65"- 1973
Significant Weather Observed:
None
One Year Ago (2010)
Low: 67
High: 79
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2006)
Low: 73
High: 81
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2001)
Low: 66
High: 81
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Thursday: 6:55a.m.
Sunset Thursday: 7:35p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:25a.m.-8:05p.m.
...Lunar Table...
First Quarter- Monday April 11
Full Moon- Monday April 18
Last Quarter- Monday April 25
New Moon- Tuesday May 2
Have a great Thursday! God Bless!
-DM
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