*The blog remains in severe weather mode for one more night. The video blogs will resume as scheduled tomorrow.*
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Well, sometimes Mother Nature has her own ideas as was the case with the early morning storms on Tuesday. Thankfully, the storms were a bit weaker than they had been Monday night when they first formed off to our NW. Most of the area received beneficial rainfall that we have desperately needed. There was some minor wind damage and some power outages, but all in all the forecast area came out smelling like a rose when compared to what has transpired in recent days, and is ongoing yet again tonight. As is usually the case with these type situations, rainfall totals varied from around 1/2" to over 2". Officially here in Lake Charles, we tallied 1.75" of rainfall for the date all of that came between 2a.m. and 7a.m. as the line segments moved through. If you were like me, you woke up to a very dark house this morning. The rest of the day was on the quiet side, and we saw a continuation of the unseasonably warm & humid conditions along with gusty winds feeding into this major storm system off to our North. Temperatures easily surpassed the 80 degree mark once again this afternoon, and we remain on the mild side tonight with low temperatures only expected to reach the lower 70s at best. A strong onshore flow will continue in advance of the powerful Pacific storm system.
The storms have fired off once again to our N and NW, and I am monitoring their progress. It is possible that a repeat performance may occur with big storms sliding into the area well after midnight through the early morning hours of Wednesday. Certainly, the roughest weather will by far stay off to our North with the main Jet and dynamics located up that way. However, the atmosphere is in a very volatile state even across the forecast area, such that if these storms do reach our area once again in a weakened state, some of them will still bear severe credentials. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main threats locally, but some isolated tornadoes can't be ruled out either. There is not currently any watches or warnings in place across the forecast area, but there are Tornado Watches in effect downstream, which could be a harbinger of things to come in the wee morning hours especially if the storms in Central Texas hold together. It looks like tornadoes may have moved through many locations in North Louisiana including in the general vicinity of Monroe, where I went to meteorology school. It is going to be a very long night and early morning for much of the South. It is a toss-up as to whether or not our area gets in on the action again, but I certainly can't ignore the fact the storms have lined up generally in the same position as they did last night, with the same general forward motion noted. Certainly, if nothing else I can raise rain chances a bit based on radar trends. The best opportunity for rain & storms will come in between 3a.m. and 9a.m. Wednesday until the cold front reaches the forecast area. The cold front should venture into the Lake Area by around noon or so, ending the threat for any severe storms and rain in general. Another 1/2-2" of rain will occur should the storms come to fruition. Everything comes to an end by midday Wednesday as the fronts moves through ushering in much drier air for the remainder of the work week. It will still be a very warm day Wednesday even with frontal passage occurring. Highs will likely reach the mid to upper 80s, and we should have a great deal of sunshine in the afternoon hours with an offshore flow developing.
Great weather prevails for Thursday & Friday thanks to controlling high pressure. Temperatures will fall to below normal levels for morning lows each morning with low to mid 50s lined up for Thursday & Friday. Plenty of sunshine is in store, and incredibly low humidity values are expected setting up some very nice late Spring weather for this forecast area. Afternoon highs will drop a few degrees with readings generally in the upper 70s on Thursday, but right back into the lower 80s on Friday. It will feel quite comfortable with the seasonable afternoon temps thanks to the lower humidity values. Onshore winds will return by Friday afternoon as the surface high quickly rides Eastward into the SE U.S. This will begin to bring back the rich tropical air entrenched over the Gulf waters. It won't really be noticeable until we get to Friday night the way it appears right now. This sets the stage for a warm & humid ending to the month of April this weekend. Saturday should be another dry day, but it'll be back to shorts and T-shirt weather with highs in the mid to upper 80s, and morning lows back into the 60s. Clear skies in the evening hours on Friday will transition to Partly to Mostly Cloudy skies by sunrise Saturday as we see the development of a low cloud deck in response to the return flow with deeper surface moisture in place. The low clouds mix out somewhat during the day Saturday leaving us with Partly Cloudy, warm, & windy conditions for the afternoon hours.
Another vigorous Pacific storm system will be developing as we head into the weekend. This will cause our winds to increase yet again, and continue to pump very soupy air into the region on Sunday. Morning lows will jump back into the lower 70s, and with a general mix of sun & clouds afternoon highs may well approach 90 along and North of I-10. Most of the weekend should be dry, but rain chances will return to the forecast late Sunday as the next Pacific storm system and its associated cold front approaches our area.. I see no reason not to believe that the first weekend of Contraband Days will be just fine if you don't mind a little humidity & some wind. Showers & thunderstorms are expected Sunday night into Monday with lifting and convergence increasing across the area. There will be some mid and upper level ridging in place yet again, and to what extent this is eroded by the advecting system remains to be seen. There are signs of a more favorable set up for severe weather with this system for our area, so this bears watching as we go through the next few days. I will get more specific about it later this week, I don't want to overshadow the short term situation. The cold front comes through with ease on Monday, and quickly pushes into the coastal waters. Showers & thunderstorms will be expected on Monday. It will continue to be very humid in the pre-frontal environment, but drier & cooler air will begin to settle into the region later in the day behind the front. Highs will be around 80 or so with some of the effects of the cooler air being felt in the afternoon. Great weather is expected to round out the forecast period on Tuesday with high pressure in complete control by Tuesday. A glorious late Spring day is expected with comfortable air and pleasantly warm temperatures. Morning lows will drop into the 50s again while afternoon highs remain around 80 with an air mass similar to the one that will take over late Wednesday. The next cool down looks brief as well, which is typical at this time of year as we begin to make the transition to our standard summer pattern entering the month of May. Stay tuned for more on the severe weather situation!
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 75/89 53/77 52/83 40 40 0 0 0 0
CAM 78/85 60/80 58/78 30 30 0 0 0 0
LFT 74/90 53/78 53/82 40 40 0 0 0 0
ARA 77/88 55/80 54/81 30 30 0 0 0 0
BPT 76/90 54/78 55/83 40 40 0 0 0 0
AEX 71/84 50/75 50/80 60 60 0 0 0 0
POE 71/84 50/75 50/80 60 60 0 0 0 0
*Wind Advisory in effect Wednesday.*
Tonight...Mostly Cloudy & Windy w/ a 40% chance of showers & thunderstorms, mainly after 2a.m. Some severe thunderstorms w/ damaging winds, large hail, & isolated tornadoes possible. Better chances for severe weather further N and W of Lake Charles. Low 75. SSE wind 15-20 mph and gusty.
Wednesday...Cloudy & Windy w/ a 40% chance of showers & thunderstorms mainly before noon. Clearing in the afternoon. High 89. SSW wind 20-30 mph and gusty in the morning becoming NNW at 15-25 mph and gusty in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night...Clear & Cooler. Low 53. NNW wind 10-15 mph.
Thursday...Sunny. High 77. North wind 10 mph.
Thursday Night...Clear. Low 52. Light NE wind.
Friday...Sunny. High 83. SE wind 10-15 mph.
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Wednesday
4-27-11
Low: 75
High: 89
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSW/NNW 15-30
Thursday
4-28-11
Low: 53
High: 77
Rain: 0%
Wind: NW 10
Friday
4-29-11
Low: 52
High: 83
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 10-15
Saturday
4-30-11
Low: 62
High: 86
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Sunday
5-1-11
Low: 72
High: 90
Rain: 20% Late
Wind: SSE 15-20
Monday
5-2-11
Low: 65
High: 76
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSW/NNW 20-25
Tuesday
5-3-11
Low: 51
High: 75
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
...Marine Forecast...
*Small Craft Advisory in effect until 1p.m. Wednesday.*
Tonight...South winds 25 to 30 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight.
Wednesday...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning.
Wednesday Night...West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north 15 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.
Thursday...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the afternoon.
Thursday Night...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Friday...East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Have a great Tuesday night & Wednesday! God bless!
-DM-
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