SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The "teaser" of early summer shall continue. There will be little day to day variation in the atmospheric conditions at least through the weekend. Today (Wednesday) was certainly no exception to that rule. It was very warm & humid with a mix of sun & clouds. It wasn't quite as windy as it was on Tuesday since the system creating the tight pressure gradient has moved rapidly Eastward across the country to our North. For us, drought conditions continue & will only worsen in the coming days. Highs today were in the mid to upper 80s, that's right temperatures approaching 90 here in the middle to latter portions of April! Morning lows were only in the low to mid 70s, and this is a feat that will be equaled on Thursday. The flow of rich tropical air will continue to pump up over the region keeping incredibly humid air and extremely moist air in the lower levels in place. Ridging in the mid and upper levels will keep the ongoing dry forecast going. The weak & stalling frontal boundary which created all the severe weather Tuesday night through today will never reach SW Louisiana, and will keep any hope for rain out of the question for our drought stricken region. The weak front washes out leaving us with the same synoptic set up through Easter Sunday. Expect a general mix of sun and clouds through then with highs remaining above normal in the mid to upper 80s while morning lows reside in the same low to mid 70s values that have been realized for the past few mornings. Windy conditions will exist on Good Friday into Saturday as the next advancing storm system moves across the country to our North, but once again it will miss us entirely.
Perhaps some hint of a pattern shift will begin to occur by Monday during Spring Break week. The warm & humid weather isn't going anywhere, and neither is the prevailing onshore flow. This pattern of persistence should hold firm into the new week. However, things begin to change in the upper levels with indications of a weakening upper level cap beginning Monday. The lack of a focus mechanism or any lifting would limit any opportunity for much needed rainfall Monday, but daytime heating could potentially lead to some scattered showers & storms in the afternoon on Monday, otherwise expect Partly to Mostly Cloudy skies once again. By Tuesday, yet another Pacific storm system will be rolling out of the Rockies, and making its way Eastward across the country. An associated upper level disturbance will be emanating SE out ahead of said trough. This could prove as a positive for us with respect to increasing rain chances. The weakening upper level cap should be eroded further by this disturbance, and the lifting creating combined with daytime heating should allow for some scattered showers & storms. Better chances of showers & storms are expected Wednesday as the attendant cold front pushes through the area. At present, it appears there should be enough upper level support for the front to easily push into and through the area. It doesn't appear as this time like there will be a widespread rain event, but there is plenty of time to watch how things materialize here. The opportunity for rain is there, so we'll just have to wait & see. The unseasonably warm & humid weather will prevail through the period with highs consistently in the mid and upper 80s and lows in the low to mid 70s. Cooler & much drier air is on tap behind the mid-week cold front just as Contraband Days starts getting revved up.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 73/87 71/88 72/88 0 0 0 0 0 0
CAM 76/82 75/81 75/82 0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 72/88 71/88 71/89 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 75/86 74/88 75/87 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 74/89 73/88 74/88 0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 70/91 71/90 70/89 0 0 0 0 0 0
POE 70/90 71/89 70/90 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tonight...Mostly Cloudy. Low 73. SSE wind 10 mph.
Thursday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy. Continued Warm & Humid. High 87. SSE wind 10-20 mph & gusty.
Thursday Night...Mostly Cloudy. Low 71. South wind 10 mph.
Good Friday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy. Continued Warm & Humid. High 88. South wind 15-25 mph & gusty.
Good Friday Night...Mostly Cloudy. Low 72. South wind 10 mph.
Saturday...Partly Cloudy. High 88. SSE wind 15-20 mph & gusty.
Saturday Night...Mostly Cloudy. Low 72. South wind 10 mph.
Easter Sunday...Partly Cloudy. High 87. SSE wind 15-20 mph & gusty.
Easter Sunday Night...Mostly Cloudy. Low 73. South wind 10-15 mph.
Monday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy w/ a 20% chance of showers & thunderstorms. High 89. SSE wind 15-25 mph & gusty.
Thursday 4/21/11 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 11
9a.m.
Weather: Partly to Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 79
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 13
Noon
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 83
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 18
3p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 87
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 20
6p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 84
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 17
9p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 79
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 13
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Thursday
4-21-11
Low: 73
High: 87
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-20
Friday
4-22-11
Good Friday
Low: 71
High: 88
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 15-25
Saturday
4-23-11
Low: 72
High: 88
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Sunday
4-24-11
Easter Sunday
Low: 73
High: 87
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Monday
4-25-11
Low: 73
High: 89
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 15-25
Tuesday
4-26-11
Low: 74
High: 86
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 20-25
Wednesday
4-27-11
Low: 70
High: 85
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSE 15-25
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday Night...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 4 feet after midnight.
Friday...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Friday Night...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Saturday...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Saturday Night...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Sunday Night...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Monday...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
..Tide Data...
Thursday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:
Low: 12:41p.m.
High: 7:58a.m. 4:26p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
164.20'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
Low: 73
Normal Low: 58
Record Low: 40-1910
High: 87
Normal High: 78
Record High: 89-1987
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 0.09"
Normal Month to Date: 2.25"
Year to Date: 12.33"
Normal Year to Date: 14.59"
Record: 3.79"- 1979
Significant Weather Observed:
None
One Year Ago (2010)
Low: 58
High: 77
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2006)
Low: 67
High: 86
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2001)
Low: 63
High: 79
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Thursday: 6:40a.m.
Sunset Thursday: 7:44p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:10a.m.-8:14p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Last Quarter- Monday April 25
New Moon- Tuesday May 3
First Quarter- Tuesday May 10
Full Moon- Tuesday May 17
Have a great Thursday! God Bless!
-DM
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