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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...What an absolutely awesome April day it was! This was one of the top 10 prettiest days of the year thus far for sure. It was nearly perfect temperaturewise after a chilly start. The chilly start came in the wake of Monday's cold front. Temperatures were on the cool side this morning with readings in the lower 40s even at LCH. Many locations north of Hwy. 190 dropped into the 30s this morning, so that is clearly a perfect illustration of things being on the chilly side. Winds were very light through the day as high pressure was in control. High temperatures fell short of the 70 degree mark as expected with average readings in the upper 60s. Humidity values were quite low as well generally in the 20-30% range. It was a very comfortable & beautiful Tuesday on the outside, and the good news is this tranquility will be in place for the next several days. There will be some changes of course, but the overall quiet and dry pattern will persist. Another chilly night is on tap tonight with high pressure continuing to be the dominant force. Light surface winds and clear skies in place will allow for maximum radiational cooling. Expect low temperatures to be a few degrees warmer than last night with readings in the mid 40s on average. A hint of a return flow is in place, and that will keep us from being as cool as last night. You will want to have a light jacket or sweater once again for Wednesday morning.
Plentiful sunshine is on tap for Wednesday, and it should be another stupendous day. The warming trend will get going as high temperatures jump back into the mid 70s or so. Humidity values will be on the increase in response to the return flow. The controlling surface high will move further East, to allow our winds to bend around to a Southerly direction. It will still be on the comfortable side as it will take a little while for the deeper moisture to return. High temperatures will be very close to the seasonal norm for early April. Deeper moisture will return to the forecast area by Wednesday night with the surface high pushing to the Atlantic Coast. Dew points will increase in earnest, and much milder weather is in store for the rest of the week. Morning lows on Thursday will already be back into the lower 60s. Skies will generally remain clear, but the development of a stratus deck is expected by sunrise Thursday with the WAA regime in place. Plenty of humidity is expected for Thursday Break out the shorts as unseasonable warmth returns. High temperatures creep back into the lower 80s with a general mix of sun and clouds expected. The Southerly breeze will keep it feeling more pleasant that it would otherwise be with the stagnant, heavy air in place.
The warm up is further enhanced for Friday and into the weekend as mid and upper level ridging intensifies. The same general synoptic set up will be in place. The main storm track will be entrenched further to our North. The persistent onshore flow will keep deep tropical moisture in place across our part of the world. Rain chances remain absent from the forecast for the Friday-Saturday time frame and the same general mix of sun and clouds scenario holds firm. Morning lows will moderate to well above normal likely in the upper 60s to around 70, almost summerlike if you will. Afternoon highs will likely reach the mid 80s, with many locations topping out in the upper 80s. That will actually make us mention a heat index for the first time this year. Definitely, a sure sign that our long, miserable summer isn't too far away now. Conditions begin to change on Sunday. That is when the next cold front will be approaching the area. However, much of the dynamics and instability with this system will bypass the region to the North. Mid and upper level ridging will only weaken slightly as the day wears on Sunday. A chance for showers will be introduced in the afternoon hours as moisture levels increase, and just enough lift will be in place ahead of the cold front to generate some scattered shower activity. It will remain very warm with readings reaching the mid 80s yet again. The shower chances will exist later in the day, and will strictly be on a hit or miss basis. Look for the Southerly flow to strengthen ahead of the front as well with gusts over 20 mph at times.
The timing of the cold front is still in question at this juncture. However, right now, I have it pegged for overnight Sunday into Monday. The front should enter the forecast area around midnight, and push into the coastal waters by daybreak Monday. The greatest chance for showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm will come in the overnight hours. No significant rain event or severe weather is expected at this time unless the projected main thrust of this system dives further South than currently expected. There will likely be a noteworthy severe weather outbreak further North of our area in the Tennessee and Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Mid West. The warmth will prevail in the pre-frontal environs, and I only expect a slight cool down in time for sunrise Monday based on the current timing of the front. Expect temperatures to be in the lower 60s. Much drier and only slightly cooler air will drain into the region in the wake of the front Monday. The front will be much weaker than its predecessor, and lose a lot of its punch on its way to the forecast area. It will lose its identity entirely once it enters the coastal waters Monday morning. We will enjoy a renewed offshore flow, and plenty of sunshine is expected for much of the day Monday. A few showers will be possible first thing Monday as the front flushes out the muggies. The Pacific high pressure will dominate the weather at the end of the period as well. Temperatures will likely remain above normal even for Tuesday with not much cooling expected. Highs will remain in the upper 70s to lower 80s, while morning lows only drop to the mid to upper 50s at best. The drier air will be the biggest difference. Another warm up will ensue later next week, with models still hinting at the idea of some fronts and severe weather outbreaks into the latter stages of April.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 43/76 61/80 67/84 0 0 0 0 0 0
CAM 51/70 65/75 70/78 0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 43/77 60/80 65/85 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 45/75 62/79 66/83 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 48/77 63/81 68/86 0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 38/75 55/82 62/85 0 0 0 0 0 0
POE 39/75 56/82 63/86 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tonight...Clear & Cool. Low 43. Light ESE wind.
Wednesday..Sunny. High 76. SE wind 5-10 mph.
Wednesday Night...Clear & Warmer. Low 61. SE wind 5-10 mph.
Thursday...Partly Cloudy. High 80. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Thursday Night...Partly Cloudy. Low 67. SSE wind 5-10 mph.
Friday...Partly Cloudy & Warm. High 84. SSW wind 10-15 mph.
Wednesday 4/6/11 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear & Cool
Temp: 44
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 2
9a.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 55
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 5
Noon
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 68
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 8
3p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 76
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 10
6p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 72
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 8
9p.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 68
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 4
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Wednesday
4-6-11
Low: 43
High: 76
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 5-10
Thursday
4-7-11
Low: 61
High: 80
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Friday
4-8-11
Low: 67
High: 84
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW 10-15
Saturday
4-9-11
Low: 70
High: 85
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW 15-20
Sunday
4-10-11
Low: 71
High: 86
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Monday
4-11-11
Low: 62
High: 78
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW/NNW 10-15
Tuesday
4-12-11
Low: 56
High: 81
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet building to 1 to 3 feet after midnight.
Wednesday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 4 feet in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Thursday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 3 to 4 feet in the afternoon.
Thursday Night...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Friday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet in the afternoon.
...Tide Data...
Wednesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:
Low: 11:13a.m. 11:33p.m.
High: 6:24a.m. 3:30p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
164.47'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Tuesday, April 5, 2011
Low: 41
Normal Low: 55
Record Low: 35-1920
High: 69
Normal High: 75
Record High: 90-1911
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 0.02"
Normal Month to Date: 0.55"
Year to Date: 12.26"
Normal Year to Date: 12.89"
Record: 3.83"- 1969
Significant Weather Observed:
None
One Year Ago (2010)
Low: 62
High: 80
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2006)
Low: 63
High: 81
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2001)
Low: 69
High: 84
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Wednesday: 6:57a.m.
Sunset Wednesday: 7:35p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:27a.m.-8:05p.m.
...Lunar Table...
First Quarter- Monday April 11
Full Moon- Monday April 18
Last Quarter- Monday April 25
New Moon- Tuesday May 2
Have a great Wednesday! God Bless!
-DM
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