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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Today was one of those days you dream about in the middle of summer when it's miserably hot & humid. It was absolutely beautiful on this Tuesday with tons of sunshine and comfortable temperatures across the board. The temperature forecast was right on target with low to mid 50s across the area this morning, followed by readings in the upper 70s to lower 80s. It was as dry as some days in the desert with humidity values in the 20% range this afternoon. High pressure was in complete control. This same area of high pressure is ejecting slowly Eastward tonight, meaning our surface winds are in the process of shifting back to off the Gulf. Quiet and beautiful weather will continue into Wednesday. We will see fair skies tonight with some passing cirrus clouds about the only fly in the ointment. It will be on the cool side once again with lows down into the low to mid 50s with relatively dry air still in place with light surface winds. A little jacket or sweater might suit some of you just fine first thing Wednesday morning, but you will quickly remove that within an hour or two as another quick warm up ensues. Plentiful sunshine is on tap once again, and high temperatures will be around 80 or so. A subtle return flow will be present as well as the surface high slides further East. Humidity will slowly increase through the day.
Low level moisture & humidity returns in earnest Wednesday night. Much warmer temperatures will be expected in response to the return flow. Dew points will rise into the 50s and 60s across the forecast area, this means average lows for Thursday morning will be back into the lower 60s. Cloudiness will also be on the increase, and expect a low cloud deck to develop overnight in a warm air advection regime. As moisture and surface winds increase, our next cold front will be in transit. This will occur on Thursday into Friday. However, don't get your hopes up for any much needed rainfall. Unfortunately, it looks even less promising for any rainfall ahead of the front than it did 24 hours ago. It is clearly evident that the main cusp of this system will bypass our region by several hundred miles. There will be plenty of energy available, but with the system bypassing us just leaving the trailing end of its cold front to move through we will have rather uneventful weather continuing. Most of Thursday will just be warm & with a few peaks of sunshine especially in the afternoon. Temperatures will warm into the low to mid 80s. The small chance for showers enters the picture Thursday night as the front enters the forecast area. It will be lifting generated by the front itself that creates a few showers. No thunder is expected at this point with almost no instability in place. The mid and upper level cap will also hold in place. Mild & humid conditions will prevail in the pre-frontal environment.
Temperatures on Friday morning will only be around 70 degrees ahead of the front, but the front should enter the forecast area in the pre-dawn hours and reach the Lake Area shortly after sunrise. This will be the most likely time frame for a brief shower in the area. Rainfall totals will be less than 1/10". The vigorous Pacific storm system will cause another round of severe weather to our North, but the trailing cold front will push into the coastal waters with ease despite us being so far away from the main energy. The front evacuates the forecast area Friday morning pushing into the offshore waters before noon. The air will quickly dry out behind the front with a renewed area of Pacific high pressure building in. Any moisture from any rainfall that does occur will quickly evaporate as the atmosphere dries out. Despite the frontal passage, another unseasonably warm day is expected due to increasing amounts of sunshine and lowering dew points. Expect high temperatures to be in the mid 80s or so. It will feel comfortable in the afternoon with the lower humidity thanks to the much drier air in place, and a refreshing Northerly breeze. High pressure becomes firmly entrenched by Friday night, and that will set us up nicely for Palm Sunday Weekend. Nothing but sunshine is expected both Saturday & Sunday with pleasant temperatures. The cooling trend will continue into Saturday morning with low temperatures generally in the lower 50s, with some locales reaching the upper 40s. Afternoon highs will likely fall short of the 80 degree mark with mid to upper 70s expected. High pressure overhead will keep fabulous weather ongoing through Sunday with a similar temperature regime expected. I bet we don't see a cloud all weekend!
Into next week, there is a guarded sense of uncertainty. Models seem to want to delay the next cold front, slotting into the late Monday/Tuesday time frame now. However, once again at this time at seems as though most of the energy and dynamics with that system will also steer clear of the Bayou State. Moisture will start to increase late Sunday becoming prevalent and noticeable Monday. We will be back to a forecast of a general mix of sun and clouds for Monday. The return of unseasonably warm & humid conditions will exist as well with morning lows in the upper 60s and highs back into the lower 80s. A chance of showers will return to the forecast late Monday as the next front comes into range to add a lifting mechanism to the equation. It is still early to be specific about the actual weather that may occur with this front. There might be some additional energy coming in from the SW to generate a surface low and throw some severe weather possibilities into the mix. This is not a foregone conclusion, and is omitted from the forecast at this point given the overall pattern this Spring. The surface front will be slowing down as it makes its way into the forecast area since it will be bumping into a persistent zonal flow, and be far removed from the main energy. There are signs that this front will struggle to advance all the way through the forecast area, possibly stalling out in our vicinity. This could also help to raise rain chances at the end of the forecast period. Mild weather shall prevail with a very limited amount of cooler air lagging behind the front. Rain chances are inserted for Monday & Tuesday at this time. An unsettled pattern may continue beyond this forecast period through a good portion of Holy Week. Forecast revisions are likely as we go along, and later this week I'll take a sneak peek at Easter for all the inquiring minds.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 53/81 62/81 69/83 0 0 0 20 20 20
CAM 58/75 66/76 72/78 0 0 0 20 20 20
LFT 52/80 60/82 68/84 0 0 0 20 20 20
ARA 55/79 61/80 70/82 0 0 0 20 20 20
BPT 56/82 64/83 71/85 0 0 0 20 20 20
AEX 48/82 55/84 65/80 0 0 0 20 30 20
POE 49/82 55/84 65/80 0 0 0 20 30 20
Tonight...Clear. Low 53. Light SE wind.
Wednesday...Mostly Sunny. High 81. SSE wind 10 mph.
Wednesday Night...Clear early, becoming Mostly Cloudy overnight. Much warmer. Low 62. SSE wind 5-10 mph.
Thursday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy w/ a 20% chance of showers late. High 81. SSE wind 15-20 mph and gusty.
Thursday Night...Mostly Cloudy w/ a 20% chance of showers. Low 68. SSE wind 15 mph and gusty.
Friday...Mostly Cloudy w/ a 20% chance of showers early, followed by Decreasing Cloudiness during the day. Becoming Sunny in the afternoon. High 83. SSW wind 15-20 mph and gusty in the morning, becoming WNW around 15 mph by afternoon.
Wednesday 4/13/11 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 53
Rain: 0%
Wind: ESE 2
9a.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 66
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 5
Noon
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 74
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 8
3p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 81
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 10
6p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 75
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 8
9p.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 70
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 7
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Wednesday
4-13-11
Low: 53
High: 80
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 10
Thursday
4-14-11
Low: 62
High: 81
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Friday
4-15-11
Low: 68
High: 83
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSW/WNW 15-20
Saturday
4-16-11
Low: 53
High: 75
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
Sunday
4-17-11
Palm Sunday
Low: 50
High: 78
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
Monday
4-18-11
Low: 64
High: 82
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Tuesday
4-19-11
Low: 69
High: 83
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSE 15-20
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot.
Wednesday...East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday Night...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Thursday Night...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Friday...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
...Tide Data...
Wednesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:
Low: 5:13a.m. 6:23p.m.
High: 12:35p.m. 11:23p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
164.42'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Tuesday, April 12, 2011
Low: 53
Normal Low: 56
Record Low: 30-1913
High: 82
Normal High: 77
Record High: 89-1943
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 0.03"
Normal Month to Date: 1.32"
Year to Date: 12.27"
Normal Year to Date: 13.66"
Record: 3.24"- 1923
Significant Weather Observed:
None
One Year Ago (2010)
Low: 52
High: 83
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2006)
Low: 62
High: 81
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2001)
Low: 72
High: 81
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Wednesday: 6:48a.m.
Sunset Wednesday: 7:39p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:18a.m.-8:09p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Full Moon- Monday April 18
Last Quarter- Monday April 25
New Moon- Tuesday May 3
First Quarter- Tuesday May 10
Have a great Wednesday! God Bless!
-DM
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