***There is no video blog tonight. It will return tomorrow night due to breaking weather.* It should return tomorrow night.
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...I hope everyone had a great Easter! As we start a new week, we are left to endure essentially the same conditions that we went into the holiday weekend with. It remains very humid, windy, & unseasonably warm across the entire forecast area. Storm systems continue to move across the country to our North, sparking off round after round of severe weather. This latest round tonight is a bit closer to us, but we should still be safe from any significant weather. That part of the story is good news, however, the bad news is, we will also be hard pressed to get in on any rainfall action. The current ESE propagating MCS will move close to the Northern extremities of the forecast area later today, but in a weakened state with stable air over Central and South LA. Most of the forecast area will remain dry overnight with Mostly Cloudy, warm, & breezy conditions prevailing. After another day of highs in the mid to upper 80s across the area, overnight lows will only fall back into the mid 70s. This is still more representative of mid June and not late April. The ongoing drought conditions will worsen in the coming days unless there is a big pattern shift. As I write this, wouldn't you know it, the storms are holding together, and a Tornado Watch has been issued for the Northern half of SW Louisiana and SE Texas until 4a.m. Tuesday. This includes all parishes North of I-10. Several warnings are effect for a severe line of storms currently located from North of Houston near Conroe to near Fort Polk. These storms should weaken some as they move further SE into more stable air, and it is still even out for debate if they will reach the Lake Area in the pre-dawn hours. I will up rain chances slightly with the expectation that they just might, but I do believe the worst of the weather will remain across the Northern half of the forecast area. All modes of severe weather are possible. Many of tonight's storms have shown rotation at times, and some sort of tornadic signature.
Now, there is some hope for a little rain over the next 24-36 hours, but chances remain small and any chance of a widespread & significant rain event is completely out of the question. A series of upper level impulses will continue to emanate Eastward along a slowly moving cold front, and this will keep the severe weather threat going for Tuesday off to our North. The front will sag a bit further South meaning the severe weather threat will also migrate further South. Much of North Louisiana may be under the gun Tuesday since they will be in the region where the best convergence and instability will reside just ahead of the cold front. This also nudges the risk of some isolated thunderstorms into our forecast area, but the impetus here is on isolated. The mid and upper levels will remain largely capped over our area prohibiting much convection. This is known as convective inhibition. We will have plenty of surface support, but it is all about what goes on in the upper levels in this case. A weaker cap across the Northern portions of the forecast area, will provide for a little bit better chance for showers & thunderstorms especially with the effects of daytime heating in place. It should be noted that any storms that do develop will have the chance to reach severe limits with hail & damaging winds the main threat here. Otherwise, the same ole same ole should continue with a general sun and cloud mix with unseasonably warm temps & windy conditions yet again. Afternoon highs should top out in the mid to upper 80s.
The best chance of rain at least in the short-term will come on Wednesday when the next expected cold front slides through the region. This is same front that is currently producing the awful weather in Arkansas tonight. This front will get an extra boost from advancing disturbances, and push into and through the forecast area on Wednesday. It should enter the NW corner of the forecast area early Wednesday around sunrise, and reach the SE portion of the forecast area in the early afternoon hours. At present it looks like the front will be near Lake Charles between mid-morning and noon. This will be the best time frame in which we might see at least enough rain to wet the ground briefly. The cap should only slightly erode, and there should be sufficient lifting with the front itself to at least generate a few showers & thunderstorms in the pre-frontal environment. Any of these would also stand the chance of turning severe, but that is too iffy a proposition right now to give a full mention in the official forecast. I fully expect that the convective activity will remain on a scattered basis, and will by no means alleviate the ongoing drought. The rich tropical air will quickly be replaced by much drier & cooler air beginning Wednesday afternoon succeeding the cold front. High temperatures Wednesday could approach 90 especially with much drier air & plenty of sunshine expected for the mid-late afternoon hours. The gusty winds shall continue as well leading to an elevated fire danger over the entire area.
Great weather is in store Thursday and Friday in the wake of this latest cold front. A very dry air mass will be place with wall to wall sunshine expected each day. Morning lows could fall into the comfortable range in the 50s, while afternoon highs remain in the lower 80s. Surface winds should be on the light side with high pressure well established, but the super dry air will keep an elevated fire danger in place across the forecast area. Please use extreme caution! Be aware that many areas of burn bans in place at this time. Thursday & Friday will be very nice Spring days, and some of the last pleasant days before the transition into our long, hot, miserable summer is complete. The timing of such pleasant air will be great with the beginning in Contraband Days slated to begin. The surface high will push Eastward as the day wears on Friday, resulting in the return of the return flow with Southerly winds in place off the Gulf. This will begin the usual moisture return process creating more humid & much warmer conditions for Friday night into the weekend. Sky conditions will remain clear Friday night, but with the return flow becoming more pronounced with time a low cloud deck (stratus) will develop towards sunrise Saturday.
We will close out the month of April Saturday on a warm & humid note. Perhaps, it's only fitting that the month closes out with that moniker since that seems like the weather pattern that dominated the month. Unseasonable warmth will return with highs back into the mid and upper 80s with morning returning to the 60s after a couple mornings in the 50s. At the same time the return flow is going on, another storm system and its associated cold front will be moving ESE out of the Rockies. The onshore flow will intensify on Saturday as a result. While a much more moist air mass will be in place, we should remain dry for another day with the storm system still some ways away. A general mix of sun & clouds is expected for the first Saturday of Contraband Days. T-shirts & shorts will be the comfortable attire, but don't forget the sunscreen. The next opportunity for some beneficial rainfall enters the picture Sunday & Monday when the next cold front pushes through with ease. The overall pattern will shift a bit behind the mid-week front to allow this second front to make it through with little trouble even though we will be in the month of May by that time. Moisture will pool ahead of the frontal boundary with convergence and lift increasing Sunday. It is too soon to speculate if this will finally produce a synoptic set up that will give us the widespread & significant rainfall event that we desperately need, but it is possible.
Showers & thunderstorms at least of a scattered variety will be possible Sunday afternoon through Monday as the boundary works its way into the coastal waters. There may also be a severe weather threat to contend with at that time. Early May can still produce some severe weather events in SW Louisiana, but we are certainly nearing the end of our Spring storm season here. A very warm & humid air mass will prevail through Sunday, and it conceivable that high temperatures may flirt with 90 again in many locations on Sunday. Morning lows will only be in the low to mid 70s yet again, as a very similar set up to what we presently have will be in place. A weaker upper level cap would increase the threat for severe weather. Often times, this time of year you can't have one without the other, so we shall see what happens. The current timing of the second aforementioned front looks to be Monday during the early to mid-morning hours. Much drier & cooler air will infiltrate the region behind the front on Monday. In fact, it looks like we will trend below normal for a day or two next week with CAA in place behind the front as a late season strong high pressure builds in beginning Monday afternoon. Highs should fall below the 80 degree mark with lows dropping back into the 50s in some areas for Monday morning, and all areas on Tuesday morning. Lots of sunshine with pleasant weather is expected in the wake of the front through the middle of next week.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 74/88 72/89 53/78 40 20 20 40 0 0
CAM 77/83 75/85 58/75 20 20 20 30 0 0
LFT 76/89 73/90 54/77 30 20 20 40 0 0
ARA 76/88 75/89 55/78 20 20 20 40 0 0
BPT 75/90 76/90 54/80 40 20 20 30 0 0
AEX 71/87 70/88 50/74 60 40 30 60 0 0
POE 72/86 71/87 50/75 60 40 30 60 0 0
*Wind Advisory Tuesday.*
*Tornado Watch in effect until 4a.m. Tuesday for Beauregard, Allen, Evangeline, Vernon, & Rapides Parishes, & for Tyler, Jasper, Newton, & Hardin Counties in SE Texas.*
Tonight...Mostly Cloudy with a 40% chance of showers & thunderstorms. Some storms possibly severe with isolated tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. Better chances further N and W of Lake Charles. Low 74. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Tuesday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy, Unseasonably Warm, & Windy with a 20% chance of showers & thunderstorms. High 88. SSE wind 20-25 mph and gusty.
Tuesday Night...Mostly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers & thunderstorms. Low 72. SSW wind 15-20 mph & gusty.
Wednesday...Mostly Cloudy & Windy with a 40% chance of showers & thunderstorms mainly in the morning, becoming Sunny & much Drier in the afternoon. High 89. SSW wind 20-25 mph and gusty in the morning, becoming NNW 20-25 mph and gusty in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night...Clear & Cool. Low 53. NNW wind 10-15 mph.
Thursday...Sunny. High 78. North wind 10 mph.
Tuesday 4/26/11 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
A Few Storms?
Temp: 74
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSE 12
9a.m.
Weather: Partly to Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 80
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 15
Noon
Weather: Partly to Mostly Cloudy
Scattered Showers
Temp: 84
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 18
3p.m.
Weather: Partly to Mostly Cloudy
A Few Rogue Severe Storms
Temp: 88
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 22
6p.m.
Weather: Partly to Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 83
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 21
9p.m.
Weather: Partly to Mostly Cloudy
Storms to our North Again
Temp: 79
Rain: 20%
Wind: S 18
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Tuesday
4-26-11
Low: 74
High: 88
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 20-25
Wednesday
4-27-11
Low: 72
High: 89
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSW/NNW 20-25
Thursday
4-28-11
Low: 53
High: 78
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
Friday
4-29-11
Low: 52
High: 82
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE/SE 5-10
Saturday
4-30-11
Low: 62
High: 87
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Sunday
5-1-11
Low: 71
High: 90
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 20-25
Monday
5-2-11
Low: 65
High: 88
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSW/NNW 15-25
...Marine Forecast...
*Small Craft Advisory in effect through Wednesday morning.*
Tonight...South winds around 20 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet.
Tuesday...South winds 15 to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Tuesday Night...South winds around 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Wednesday...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet in the afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms in the morning.
Wednesday Night...Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet after midnight.
Thursday...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the afternoon.
...Tide Data...
Tuesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:
Low: 4:51a.m. 6:25p.m.
High: 12:50p.m. 11:23p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
164.01'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Monday, April 25, 2011
Low: 74
Normal Low: 60
Record Low: 33-1910
High: 89
Normal High: 79
Record High: 89-1999
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 0.09"
Normal Month to Date: 2.91"
Year to Date: 12.33"
Normal Year to Date: 15.25"
Record: 5.02"- 1997
Significant Weather Observed:
Haze
One Year Ago (2010)
Low: 57
High: 87
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2006)
Low: 69
High: 86
Rain: 0.93"
10 Years Ago (2001)
Low: 50
High: 77
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Tuesday: 6:35a.m.
Sunset Tuesday: 7:47p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:05a.m.-8:17p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Last Quarter- Tonight April 25
New Moon- Tuesday May 3
First Quarter- Tuesday May 10
Full Moon- Tuesday May 17
Have a great Tuesday & God Bless!
-DM-
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