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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...It's been a warm & beautiful April weekend. It has been on the breezy side as well with the approach of the latest Pacific storm allowing for increasing pressure anomalies across the Gulf Coast. This has also been the warmest weekend of the year thus far with temperatures soaring into the mid to upper 80s with a few locations touching the 90 degree mark, if you can believe that. Sunshine has been plentiful across the area in the afternoons after some morning low cloudiness. Skies were generally Mostly Sunny both Saturday and today. Morning lows have been running well above normal, and been more representative of June or July. These readings have been in the upper 60s to mid 70s across the area. The low was all of 72 this morning at Lake Charles. There has been plenty of humidity as well, and thank goodness for the stiff Southerly breeze to keep it from feeling almost unbearable. The deep Southerly flow will continue overnight as a vigorous Pacific storm rolls Eastward across our great nation. Not much weather will occur in the pre-frontal environment. Re-development of a low cloud deck is expected after midnight with warm temperatures continuing. Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s yet again. The trailing cold front associated with the Pacific storm system will work its way SE merging with the attendant dry line over Texas overnight.
The cold front will works its way into the area Monday. The current synoptic set up suggests this front will come through with little fanfare weatherwise. There will be a chance for showers & thunderstorms as the front crosses the area. The forcing generated by the front will allow for a weakening of the mid and upper level cap. This weakening combined with daytime heating will help to generate some shower & thunderstorm activity. Depending on how much weakening occurs, there could some rather robust storms at least bordering on severe credentials with large hail & damaging winds the main threat. The tornado threat seems non-existent here with the lack of turning in the atmosphere. Only an isolated severe storm or two is expected, and it is very possible that this will be a rather uneventful day for us. Many areas will likely only receive just enough rain to wet the ground, and settle the dust. Average amounts will be 1/2" or less. Some scattered showers will begin to develop by mid-morning with the greatest opportunity for showers & thunderstorms coming from around mid-day to mid-afternoon. A big severe weather outbreak is expected for points further N and E of our part of the world. What seems likely is that a broken or scattered line of showers & storms will form along the cold front in Texas, and migrate Eastward through the day. It will remain uncharacteristically warm ahead of said front, with temperatures reaching the low to mid 80s yet again. The front will enter the forecast area in the afternoon hours before pushing into the coastal waters by the evening. The weakening tail end of this front will continue weakening as it moves into the forecast area. We will enjoy a period of drier & somewhat cooler air behind it. That will take over for Monday night.
High pressure builds in behind this front, and skies should rapidly clear out in the wake of the front. The cooler Pacific air mass will drain into the area, and low temperatures will be much closer to the seasonal norms in the mid 50s by sunrise Tuesday. Clear skies and a refreshing Northerly wind will also be prevalent. Tuesday will be a fantastic day with the high pressure in control. High temperatures will be a bit cooler, but may stay just above the normal. Highs around 80 will feel pretty comfortable given the fact that the humidity will be much lower. Offshore winds will drive humidity and dew point values downward. It will feel good through Wednesday with ideal conditions in place at mid-week. The controlling high pressure will continue to dominate. Morning lows will be in the mid 50s yet again for Wednesday. We will begin to see an increase in humidity and a return of an onshore flow in the afternoon as the surface high migrates Eastward. The previous cold front should fizzle out over the Gulf waters, but the deeper tropical air will be looming just offshore. Temperatures will be very similar on Wednesday afternoon reaching the lower 80s once again. It should be another Absolutely Awesome April day.
The pattern changes yet again for the second half of the week. The unseasonably warm & high humidity air returns in earnest on Thursday. At the same time, another cold front will be working its way across the country again as the pattern repeats itself. Moisture increases Thursday, and skies return to Partly Cloudy. Morning lows will easily be back into the 60s while afternoon highs top the 80 degree mark once again. Another opportunity for showers & thunderstorms will arise by Thursday afternoon as the next front makes it approach. There is a good deal of uncertainty with respect to the specifics of the timing & intensity of this next front, and I will defer being real specific about it at this time, such that we can get through Monday's system first. However, it looks like there will be a slightly better opportunity for rainfall with the second system. A better chance for severe weather may also exist here in the local area. At present, however, it looks like the best dynamics will remain North of our area leaving just the attendant cold front to translate across the area. Scattered showers & thunderstorms will develop later in the day Thursday as moisture pools over the area, and lifting increases. It will be warm & breezy in the pre-frontal environment. A bit better chance for rain & storms comes overnight Thursday into first thing Friday morning as the front dives into the forecast area & slides offshore. Temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 60s ahead of the front.
The front clears the area Friday morning, eliminating any chance for showers & storms early in the day. Drier air will filter in, and clouds will likely decrease rather quickly as been the case for most of the Spring behind these fronts. There is a question as to how much cooler air will work into the region behind the front, so we shall see. However, odds are it will only be noticeably drier and quite breezy on Friday with plenty of sunshine by afternoon. Highs should still be around 80, but humidity values will fall into the 20-30% range in the afternoon hours as Pacific high pressure builds SE towards the NW Gulf of Mexico Coast. As we head into the weekend, it should feel noticeably cooler Friday night with clear skies and relaxing surface winds in place. We will trend below normal again on temperatures with readings well down into the 50s both Saturday and Sunday morning. Some of the coldest locations may actually dip into the 40s for Sunday morning. That sets us up perfectly for the upcoming weekend. It happens to be Palm Sunday weekend, and right now it looks like it might turn out be one of the prettiest weekends of the year. Plenty of sunshine is expected both Saturday and Sunday with high pressure firmly entrenched. Temperatures will be quite comfortable all weekend. Saturday highs should be in the mid 70s and low to mid 70s are expected for Sunday as the high remains positioned to keep cooler air filtering into the area. Humidity will be quite low with plenty of dry air in place, and it should be a superb Spring weekend in SW Louisiana.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 72/84 56/81 55/80 0 40 0 0 0 0
CAM 76/81 59/79 57/77 0 40 0 0 0 0
LFT 73/85 56/80 54/81 0 40 0 0 0 0
ARA 75/82 57/80 56/80 0 40 0 0 0 0
BPT 73/83 56/81 55/81 0 40 0 0 0 0
AEX 68/80 52/77 50/80 0 50 0 0 0 0
POE 68/80 53/78 51/81 0 50 0 0 0 0
Tonight...Becoming Mostly Cloudy & Continued Unseasonably Warm. Low 72. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Monday...Mostly Cloudy with a 40% chance of showers & thunderstorms. An isolated severe thunderstorm or two is possible. Damaging wind & large hail the main threat. High 84. SSE wind 20-25 mph & gusty, becoming NNW at 15-25 mph & gusty in the afternoon.
Monday Night...Becoming Clear. Cooler. Low 56. NNW wind 10-15 mph.
Tuesday...Sunny. High 81. North wind 10 mph.
Tuesday Night...Clear. Low 55. NE wind 5 mph.
Wednesday...Sunny. High 80. East wind becoming SE 5-10 mph.
Monday 4/11/11 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Cloudy
Temp: 72
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 12
9a.m.
Weather: Cloudy & Windy
Scattered Showers Developing
Temp: 77
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 17
Noon
Weather: Cloudy
Scattered Showers & Storms
Temp: 80
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 21
3p.m.
Weather: Showers & T-Storms
Isolated Severe Storms Possible
Temp: 84
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSW 23
6p.m.
Weather: Cloudy
Turning Cooler, Rain Ending
Temp: 73
Rain: 20%
Wind: NNW 18
9p.m.
Weather: Clear & Cooler
Temp: 67
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 15
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Monday
4-11-11
Low: 73
High: 84
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSE/NNW 15-25
Tuesday
4-12-11
Low: 56
High: 81
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
Wednesday
4-13-11
Low: 55
High: 80
Rain: 0%
Wind: E/SE 5-10
Thursday
4-14-11
Low: 65
High: 82
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Friday
4-15-11
Low: 67
High: 81
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE/NNW 15-25
Saturday
4-16-11
Low: 53
High: 74
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
Sunday
4-17-11
Palm Sunday
Low: 50
High: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
...Marine Forecast...
*Small Craft Advisory in effect from until 7a.m. Monday.*
Tonight...South winds 15 to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Monday...Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may be severe.
Monday Night...West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 3 feet. A slight chance of thunderstorms early in the evening. Some thunderstorms may be severe.
Tuesday...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming east 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 3 feet in the afternoon.
...Tide Data...
Monday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:
Low: 2:56a.m.
High: 11:35a.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
164.27'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Sunday, April 10, 2011
Low: 72
Normal Low: 56
Record Low: 33-1918
High: 86
Normal High: 76
Record High: 87-1946
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 0.02"
Normal Month to Date: 1.10"
Year to Date: 12.26"
Normal Year to Date: 12.44"
Record: 3.00"- 1913
Significant Weather Observed:
None
One Year Ago (2010)
Low: 50
High: 77
Rain: 0.01"
5 Years Ago (2006)
Low: 48
High: 79
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2001)
Low: 72
High: 84
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Monday: 6:51a.m.
Sunset Monday: 7:38p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:21a.m.-8:08p.m.
...Lunar Table...
First Quarter- Monday April 11
Full Moon- Monday April 18
Last Quarter- Monday April 25
New Moon- Monday May 2
Have a great Monday! God Bless!
-DM
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