Click below for the latest version of the video blog. Be sure to scroll down for the complete text form of the blog.
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The great weather continued on Wednesday. It was another comfortably warm afternoon with highs reaching the lower 80s. Morning lows were on the cool side in the low to mid 50s as anticipated. Clouds began to roll in late in the afternoon from West to East. Humidity only modestly increased in the afternoon as Southerly winds returned. Dew points were still quite low with super dry air slow to vacate the region. This process is amplifying tonight. A shield of high cirrus clouds in advance of the next storm system will continue to roll across the state tonight. We will also see a low stratus deck form overnight as well with the stiffening onshore flow. Dry conditions will prevail. Much more humidity & unseasonably warm temperatures will be in place. Morning lows will be back into the low to mid 60s across the forecast area. Mostly Cloudy skies should greet you as you head out the door Thursday morning. Thursday will also be a dry day with all rain chances eliminated from the forecast. The onshore flow will keep deep tropical moisture flowing into the area. Skies will generally be Partly Cloudy to Mostly Cloudy throughout the day with highs reaching the low to mid 80s. Higher dew points will lead to higher humidity thus making low to mid 80s feel like the mid to upper 80s. The atmosphere will remain largely capped, thus no mention of rain is highlighted for Thursday despite the advancement of the next Pacific storm system. A severe weather outbreak is expected across the Mid West and Great Plains.
The cold front looks to arrive a bit later than previously thought, meaning it won't reach our neck of the woods until between late morning and mid afternoon Friday. A quiet regime will prevail in the pre-frontal environment Thursday night with just Mostly Cloudy skies and very warm overnight lows around 70 or so. The capped environment will hold firm. Friday will start off rather uneventful as the front will still be in transit. The main dynamics & instability with this system will safely bypass our region, meaning we will not have much opportunity for some beneficial rain. It is the front itself combined with the effects of daytime heating that will keep rain chances from being completely non-existent. The little bit of lifting caused by the front should generate some shower activity, and possibly an isolated thunderstorm or two during the day Friday. There will be more than sufficient low-level moisture in place, but many of the other key ingredients necessary to produce beneficial shower & thunderstorm activity will not exist. Rainfall totals will be generally 1/10" or less yet again, and many locations will come away with absolutely nothing. There will be a bit better chance for showers & storms across Northern and Eastern portions of the forecast area where there will be more of an opportunity for weakening of the upper level cap since they will be closer to the upper level support. However, it should be noted that rain chances are still minimal even for Alexandria and Lafayette. Rich tropical moisture will remain in place ahead of the front, and high temperatures will once be on the warm side reaching the low to mid 80s. An onshore flow will continue until frontal passage. Right now, frontal passage looks to occur in the early afternoon hours at Lake Charles, clearing the entire forecast area by the evening.
As the front brushes on by, the small rain chances will come to an end and much drier & cooler air will filter into the region. Skies will clear rapidly behind the front as well heading into Friday night. The strong onshore flow will be replaced by a strong offshore flow. Temperatures will trend below normal yet again as our latest cool down moves in. Clear skies and steady North winds will help the air cool off quickly from the low to mid 80s ahead of the front Friday afternoon to the lower 50s by sunrise Saturday. This sets us up for a beautiful weekend. This part of the forecast has not changed. High pressure will dominate the weather picture both Saturday and Sunday leaving us with crystal clear Sunny skies and pleasant temperatures. After the cool start Saturday morning, temperatures will reach the mid to upper 70s under full sunshine. Winds will slowly decrease during the day as the high pressure anchors itself across the NW Gulf Coastal Plain. Another cool morning is on tap for Palm Sunday morning, but it will be a beautiful morning as you head out to church or wherever. Temperatures will be in the lower 50s for minimums once again with some of the colder locales falling into the mid to upper 40s briefly. Wall to wall sunshine is expected once again with highs back into the upper 70s to around 80. Humidity values will remain quite low even with a subtle return flow expected by late Sunday. Take time to enjoy the beautiful weekend!
Changes are on the way for next week yet again. The whole process begins to repeat itself on Monday. The onshore flow intensifies bringing back copious amounts of low level moisture with plenty of humidity and unseasonably warm temperatures to boot. A general mix of sun and clouds is to be expected, but rain chances have been removed for Monday thanks to strong capping in the mid and upper levels once again as well as a slower evolving system as indicative by the latest model guidance. Break out the shorts again as lows moderate back to the mid 60s while afternoon highs trend to the mid to upper 80s perhaps. While it is certain that changes will occur next week, there is still a large degree of uncertainty with respect to how the synoptics of the situation evolve. For now, it looks like rain chances may hold off until Wednesday when the next cold front sags into the forecast area. There won't be much upper level support for this front to work with, so it will have a hard time pushing all the way through based on the current prognostications. It will remain warm & humid on Tuesday & Wednesday with morning lows inching up into the lower 70s yet again while afternoon highs climb towards the upper 80s, and we threaten the lower 90s with the heat index. A tightening pressure gradient will lead to increase surface winds, and enhance the marine influence across the area. There is some idea of better rain chances this time around depending on which model you like best, but due to the inconsistencies this far out I will only reflect a slight chance for showers/storms at the end of the forecast period. If the wetter solution verifies, then the prospects of severe weather will also have to be included in the forecast. Warm & unsettled pattern looks to continue heading towards the end of next week with the potential for a cold front to arrive just before Easter.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 62/83 70/85 53/76 0 0 10 20 0 0
CAM 66/79 72/82 56/80 0 0 10 20 0 0
LFT 61/84 69/85 53/77 0 0 10 30 0 0
ARA 65/80 70/84 54/77 0 0 10 30 0 0
BPT 65/84 71/86 54/78 0 0 10 20 0 0
AEX 59/83 67/82 50/74 0 0 20 30 0 0
POE 59/83 67/82 50/75 0 0 20 30 0 0
Tonight...Partly to Mostly Cloudy & Warmer. Low 62. SSE wind 5-10 mph.
Thursday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy. High 83. SSE wind 15-20 mph & gusty.
Thursday Night...Mostly Cloudy. Low 70. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Friday...Mostly Cloudy & Windy w/ a 20% chance of showers. High 85. SSE wind 15-20 mph & gusty in the morning, before becoming SSW and finally NNW at 15-25 mph & gusty in the afternoon.
Friday Night...Clear & Cooler. Low 53. NNW wind 10-15 mph.
Saturday...Sunny. High 78. North wind 10 mph.
Thursday 4/14/11 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10
9a.m.
Weather: Partly to Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 72
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 13
Noon
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 78
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 15
3p.m.
Weather: Partly to Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 83
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 18
6p.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 78
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 15
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Thursday
4-14-11
Low: 62
High: 83
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Friday
4-15-11
Low: 70
High: 85
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE/NNW 15-25
Saturday
4-16-11
Low: 53
High: 76
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
Sunday
4-17-11
Palm Sunday
Low: 51
High: 80
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE/SE 5-10
Monday
4-20-11
Low: 64
High: 85
Rain: 10%
Wind: S 15-20
Tuesday
4-19-11
Low: 70
High: 86
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 15-25
Wednesday
4-20-11
Low: 71
High: 83
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 20-25
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday Night...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Friday...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Friday Night...West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet building to 3 to 4 feet after midnight.
Saturday...North winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the afternoon.
...Tide Data...
Thursday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:
Low: 6:20a.m. 7:02p.m.
High: 12:58p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
164.42'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Wednesday, April 13, 2011
Low: 53
Normal Low: 56
Record Low: 30-1913
High: 82
Normal High: 77
Record High: 89-1992
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 0.03"
Normal Month to Date: 1.43"
Year to Date: 12.27"
Normal Year to Date: 13.77"
Record: 3.24"- 1923
Significant Weather Observed:
None
One Year Ago (2010)
Low: 58
High: 84
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2006)
Low: 58
High: 85
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2001)
Low: 73
High: 86
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Thursday: 6:47a.m.
Sunset Thursday: 7:39p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:17a.m.-8:09p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Full Moon- Monday April 18
Last Quarter- Monday April 25
New Moon- Tuesday May 3
First Quarter- Tuesday May 10
Have a great Thursday! God Bless!
-DM
No comments:
Post a Comment